RayDog

Beto lost by 214k, not 500k. Beto's margin to a conservative estimate of Biden's are Harris 200k to 387k, Dallas 240k to 371k, Travis, 240k to 367k, Bexar 109k to 215k, El Paso 100k to 155k, Hidalgo 58k to 107, Fort Bend 31k to 69k. Biden wins Texas by over 3%.

Harris was plus 200k for Beto with much lower turnout. Biden will net 350k to 400k in Harris based on turnout and estimates based on Beto's percentage. The math is simple.

I have been estimating between 10 and 15% on election day. So assuming 9.6 million after today that would be between 11.3 and 12.2 million. That puts your estimate in the middle. I do think the turnout will be higher in Republican counties so using the top 15 estimate could end up being low. 12 million really appears to be a good estimate now.

With 71% turnout it would be 387k or greater. A 400k advantage for Biden in Harris would not surprise me.

I would hope they can machine count the ones already on hand on Tuesday morning. Democrats have probably a million vote advantage there. People in PA should also know to vote in person if they did not already mail their ballot. If they can't count the ballots on hand they are incompetent.

Over 3.8 million have voted in NC and Democrats still lead by 7.4% in ballots submitted. There are over a million who did not vote in 2016. With close to 70% of the vote in it is very unlikely that Republicans can win any statewide race there.

I redid my estimates of the margins in the 11 biggest counties using an estimated total turnout of 20% above the current turnout and the percentage for Biden 2-3% above Beto's percentage in keeping with baseline demographic trends. The Net gain using this conservative measure is 1,740, 361. Beto had a lead of 945K in these counties when he lost by 214k. The extra 800k is more than enough to give Biden the victory and possibly even MJ. Harris 71% 60% 1056304 668993 387,311 Dallas 70% 68% 664748 293271 371,477 Travis 77% 77% 504399 137,563 366,836 Bexar 70% 62% 512995 297868 215,127 El Paso 59% 76% 218674 63300 155,374 Hidalgo 62% 71% 172241 65500 106,741 Fort Bend 80% 58% 223390 154062 69,328 Tarrant 73% 52% 455442 402891 52,551 Williamson 82% 53% 163195 138562 24,633 Collin 82% 49% 259310 259310 0 Denton 80% 48% 216419 225436 -9,017 I think the actual turnout could be a couple points higher in each county and the swing towards democrats could be higher, particularly in Tarrant, Williamson, Collin, and Denton.

How huge? If 20% Show up on election day that would lead to close to 13 million total. 15% would lead to 12 million.

That is a long way to say we need voter suppression.

What we need is on-line voting. The main arguments I hear against it are basically that it is more difficult to suppress the vote.

At this rate Travis will have over 550k by Friday which is 64% turnout. In 2018 Travis had 14% turnout on election day, so I imagine Travis counties final turnout will be in the 75-80% range. That should give Biden a net 350,000 votes in Travis alone.

Great, that means the total will be close to 8.6 million with 2 days to go in early voting. Assuming a small bump the last two days, 9.5+ million early votes looks fairly certain. I also calculated that as of yesterday 50.31% had turned out in the biggest 11 counties while 45.40 have turned out in the rest, for a nearly 11% advantage in the biggest urban/suburban areas that voted nearly 60/40 for Beto. It was a 10% advantage a couple days ago so the big counties are still stretching out their early lead.

When I analyze the Senate race I start by comparing it to the 2018 governor's race, a 13 point loss. But 2 years is another 2 to 3 point swing or 4 to 6 margin. Then Hegar is a slightly better candidate and Cornyn a slightly worse one for another 2 or 3 points. Then being a presidential year is another 2 or 3 points. That still leaves Hegar short without an unusually large Democratic turnout advantage. Biden has to win Texas by 300,000 for her to have a chance. I did not think that was possible, as it would take 11.5 to 12 million votes. Election day turnout will probably fall flat for Democrats, as usual, and leave her short. But I hope I am wrong.

Those are Bitecofer's not mine. But I could see 10 of her likely 13, 4 of her 7 leans, and 6 or 7 of her toss-ups, perhaps a couple more.

I still find Bitecofer's analysis the most interesting, but she over estimates certain Texas seats chances to flip because she groups aggies in with college educated who would otherwise be leaning toward the Democrats. Also what she calls likely or lean is a toss-up to other people. Most of her toss-ups lean R. Based on her analysis and the high turnout so far 20-25 seats could flip to Democrats while they lose only 1 or 2. Likely D (R Seats) AZ-6, IN-5, MN-1, MO-2, NE-2, NC-2, NC-6, TX-3, TX-21, TX-22, TX-23, TX-24, TX-25 Lean D (R Seats) GA-7, IL-13, NJ-2, OH-1, PA-1, TX-2, TX-10, Toss-ups (R Seats) CA-25, CA-50,MI-3, MI-6, MT, NY-1, NY-2, NY-21, NY-24, NC-8, OH-12,TX-6, TX-31, VA-5 Toss-ups (D Seats) MN-7, OK-5 Lean R (R Seats) AK, AR-2, CO-3, FL-15, FL-16, IA-4, OH-10, PA-10, WA-3

Election project has SC and LA at 30%, GA at 28%, and NC at 20% in early voting. I assume the black turnout is proportionally similar in AL and MS. If more white women would vote for their own self interests the old south would flip to the Demiceats with that black turnout.

I vaguely recall an article where Cornyn's team felt that if the turnout topped 11.25 million then the race would be close. It looks like it will top that.

Texas is headed toward 9 million plus voting early. If half the older Republican voters waited for election day, Texas will top 11.5 million. If it falls anywhere between 11 and 12 million that means 3 to 4 million who did not vote in 2016 or 2018. Most of those voters voted early and are in Democratic majority counties that went 60/40 for Beto.

That puts Harris over 1.2 million and 40k short of 50%. The 4 biggest counties should all pass 50% turnout tomorrow.

That is amazing since 250k among the top 15 means 400k overall which puts the total at nearly 7.8 million. Breaking 9 million in early voting is looking like a real possibility. Beyond that 11 million plus total after election day looks pretty certain.

I think Trumpism will still be on the ballot in 2022, since Trump won't stop tweeting and Trumpist candidates will run in big races. Trump may even keep doing rallies for the attention. 2022 will not be the usual midterm. A Trumpist or even a Trump family member could run for the New York Senate, for example, keeping the NYC media talking about Trumpism endlessly. In addition to retirements in NC, PA and IA for the Republicans and probably Leahy and on the Democratic side. Murkowski is likely to get primaried making Alaska an essentially open seat. Wisconsin will be tough whether Johnson retires or not. Rubio will likely face a tough race in Florida, and could have a Trumpist primary challenger. If the Republicans win Georgia, that will be a tough race too. If Abrams runs for Governor again at the top of the state ticket that could be quite a race for both Governor and Senate. Ohio could have a close race with the right Democratic candidate. Missouri was within 3% in 2016 in a Republican wave year, so again the right candidate could make it a race. Young only had 52% of the vote in Indiana last time, and there are rumors that Buttigieg could run there if he does not get a role in the Biden administration.. I expect Rand Paul will get a primary challenge, which will add to the money drain. And there might be a vote on McConnell's replacement, if he does not make it. 2022 is going to be tough on the Republicans. We may even add Puerto Rico into the mix by then.

The record is 78.25 in 1992. Travis could hit 75% the way things are going, which would be nice.

I noticed that as of Sunday morning the biggest 11 counties had a 44.1% turnout while the remaining counties had a 40.1% turnout for a 10% advantage among the biggest, primarily Democratic counties. In 2016 those 11 counties had a 2.7% advantage at the end. Of course, Republicans will think they will make it up on election day and perhaps they will.

In the past Republicans have been capped at 4.7 million votes. So even if half of them waited and no Democrats did it would still be 2.35 million or about 14% of 16.9 million. I think the actually lower limit for election day turnout is closer to 20%.

The biggest 11 counties are at about 44.5% based on those estimates and within reach of 46.0% in 24 hours. Then conservatively the could add 2% a day M-W and 3% Th & Fr to reach 58% in early voting or perhaps match 2016s percentage for the full election. From there it seems likely they will top 70% on election day. 75% might be in reach.