RayDog

The Philippines, but when I first left the US I went to Bulgaria.

I live in the Philippines and every American here will tell you Australian beef has a funny taste and sometimes tastes really bad. Filipino beef is not great either. The Aussies (and Brits) like to smother their steaks in brown sauce, so many of them have no taste.

This is one reason why I moved to a country where I can have most surgeries for less than $5000 with no insurance.

Not long after I made the last post I realized that all force interactions attributed to gravity are a subset of the electromagnetic forces as described by the Maxwell equations. Because of that I could describe all five forces, including mechanical and gravity, in a single Maxwell stress-energy tensor equation in quantum field metric space. In short I completed the single equation unified force theory. The Maxwell force as a unified force theory including gravity Now, once I finish my book on the one particle theory of particles I will have the framework for a complete theory of everything with one force, one field, and one particle.

You are wrong on both counts. There are lots of people who dislike Trump who will need a little extra nudge to vote. That is the number one key to winning the election in 2020 per Dr. Bitecofer and I agree with her analysis. Secondly, winning the middle is seldom the winning strategy for Democrats. Races are won by getting the base and the left to vote. Hillary lost in part because the left stayed home. Republicans know they win by mobilizing the far right. Democrats have been conned into thinking they need to win from the middle.

Can he run for Senate and President at the same time in Texas? As fast as Texas demographics are changing a 3 point win in 2018 means a 3 point loss in 2024, possibly more depending on how motivated Democrats are to vote.

At this point whoever wins the nomination can win the Midwest. It should not be difficult for a Democrat nominee to win states where Trump is -8 or worse.

It is not a side switching issue. It is a matter of millenials and Gen Zs showing up to vote, particularly the Latinos within those groups. Warren and Bernie have been a lot more effective reaching the younger generations than Biden. I agree that Biden would be a disaster for Democrats chances in Texas, but not Warren.

In 2024 the boomer and older group will be less than 25% of eligible voters in Texas. And I should clarify that 30% in 2020 is the percentage of eligible voters not the total population.

I was curious about the Boomer and older percentage in Texas so using the Census' American factfinder numbers I estimated it was 35.8% in 2016 and 34.4% in 2017 the last year with data. Extrapolating to 2020 it should drop to 30.2% with 6.5 million Boomers+ in Texas in 2020. The Boomer+ number dropped by 145,000 from 2016 to 2017, which is what you would expect from normal death rates. That said the total population extrapolation from the census was low compared to other sources. Google comes up with 28.7 million in 2018 on top and a census extrapolation is 28.8 million in 2020. So based on the population being 29.7 million in 2020 and around 73% being voter age the Boomer and older population could be 29.8% in 2020. So we can split the difference and say Texas is 30% Boomer and older as a nice round number. So if Texas votes Republican in 2020 it is not just the old's fault. https://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=CF

The loss came down to one minority majority county that Democrats won by 5000 in 2018 and barely broke even this time.

He had a 2 point margin and at least 1.5% of his advantage will die in the next 14 months. Good luck.

That is one reason why Beto would be a great VP. The turnout in NC9 was almost 90,000 less than 2018. I think it is another case of Democrats shitting the bed in a special election. That district could still flip in 2020.

Its clear how it ends. Republicanism dies of old age.

In 2016 Libertarians had 283,492 and McMullin had 42,366 combining for 3.6% of the vote. In 2012 Libertarians only had 88,580 so there were around 250,000 never Trumpers who threw away their vote. I suspect there will be even more this time. That alone could swing the election since Beto got within 215,000. The Greens also were at 71.558 in 2016 versus 24,647 in 2012, so some Democrats threw away vote as well in the other direction. Those votes will probably go back to the Democratic candidate this time, but some idiots will still vote green.

Here is a partial list of mostly corporate Democrats in the house by the amount of corporate PAC money they accepted to their 2018 campaigns (not their PACS) and the percentage of corporate donations (source:opensecrets). That is followed by the ratings and grade from progressivepunch which essentially tells how often they voted Republican. I think progressives should try to primary all of them. Name District Corp. PAC PAC % Rating Grade Richard Neal MA-1 $2,501,791 76.33% 2.60 C Steny Hoyer MD-5 $2,163,715 60.92% -5.48 F Ron Kind WI-3 $1,683,793 78.05% -4.77 F Frank Pallone NJ-6 $1,637,066 67.22% 3.99 B James Clyburn SC-6 $1,428,608 86.34% -1.08 D Terri Sewel AL-7 $1,324,628 81.63% -16.96 F Kurt Schrader OR-5 $1,322,953 70.99% -19.70 F Scott Peters CA-52 $1,274,573 56.20% -31.84 F Mike Thompson CA-5 $1,150,309 61.43% -0.95 D Ben R Lujan NM-3 $1,120,126 68.67% -2.66 D Linda Sanchez CA-38 $1,100,788 77.99% 11.76 A Josh Gottheimer NJ-5 $1,094,326 24.28% -35.34 F Cheri Bustos IL-17 $1,072,622 41.77% -24.70 F Derek Kilmer WA-6 $1,045,221 51.78% -14.06 F Henry Cuellar TX-28 $1,030,377 66.63% -44.44 F Suzan DelBene WA-1 $1,004,698 53.22% -10.72 F John Larson CT-1 $987,993 70.94% 2.48 C Collin Peterson MN-7 $961,513 79.59% -30.80 F Jim Himes CT-4 $937,673 48.28% -12.69 F Ami Bera CA-7 $933,047 40.79% -27.39 F David Scott GA-13 $921,249 94.12% -15.45 F Ed Perlmutter CO-7 $893,069 63.84% -15.66 F Cedric Richmond LA-2 $892,392 77.90% -5.14 F Jim Costa CA-16 $892,340 58.10% -40.27 F Stephanie Murphy FL-7 $866,738 46.95% -32.67 F Nancy Pelosi CA-12 $866,700 26.58% 10.31 A Raul Ruiz CA-36 $808,925 39.07% -30.67 F

The Justice Democrats called him out as someone they wanted to primary many months ago. I assume they are trying to find a candidate. It went over poorly with mainstream Democrats so, while they originally said they would identify other Democrats that need primarying they have been quiet. I published a list of corporate house Democrats on dailykos and that did not go well even there.

Recall that in 2018 Republican enthusiasm was down near 50% and then the Kavanaugh hearings it went up to 65%, essentially the same as for Democrats. Right now Republican enthusiasm is way down and we could easily see a 5% or more swing from 2018 results in 2020 unless the Republicans manufacturer a way to boost enthusiasm. There is also a 3% change out in votes every 2 years from olds dying and youngsters taking their place. And this is a presidential year that will increase Democratic turnout.

The North Carolina gerrymanders have spread out the Republican vote very thinly and if an R+8 PVI district goes easily to the Democrats in 2019 their will be a lot of seats flip to the Democrats in 2020. at the very extreme it could conceivably go from 10-3 Republican to 10-3 Democratic since only 3 districts are R+12 or better. It will also be interesting to see how close NC3 is, although the Democrats are not putting up as big a fight there. NC1 D+17 Democratic NC2 R+7 Republican NC3 R+12 Vacant NC4 D+17 Democratic NC5 R+10 Republican NC6 R+9 Republican NC7 R+9 Republican NC8 R+8 Republican NC9 R+8 Vacant NC10 R+12 Republican NC11 R+14 Republican NC12 D+18 Democratic NC13 R+6 Republican

The largest GOP counties are trending toward the Democrats (below), so going with county-wide voting could accelerate that trend. Even a 2 or 3 percent increase in the Democratic percentage in right leaning counties could be disastrous for the GOP in state races and certain representative districts. I think they will stick with voter suppression in those counties unless the county has some honest Republicans or ones that don't realize they might be helping the Democrats. The largest counties that went for Cruz in 2018 with the Democratic percentage in 2018, 2016, and 2012. Note that while many of the Democratic votes were flat from 2012 to 2016 the Republicans (Trump) actually lost votes to the Libertarian ticket, so the progression of Republican loses is more linear. If the Democrats hold their Beto numbers and Libertarians get 3% like 2016 that will be bad for Republicans too. Collin 46.53%, 38.91%, 33.49% Denton 45.52%, 37.13%, 33.35% Montgomery 26.97%, 22.40%, 19.02% Galveston 39.66%, 35.52%, 35.89% Brazoria 40.47%, 35.65%, 32.25% Lubbock 35.02%, 28.30%, 28.81% Bell 44.37%, 39.79%, 41.19% Smith 29.95%, 26.31%, 26.95% McLennan 38.00%, 34.22%, 34.47% Brazos 43.23%, 34.40%, 31.23% Comal 27.37%, 22.90%, 22.22% Ellis 31.53%, 25.53%, 25.63% Guadalupe 36.79%, 31.81%, 31.80% Parker 18.27%, 14.69%, 16.47% Johnson 23.67%, 19.07%, 21.49% Randall 19.84%, 15.41%, 15.24% On that last note I will add that Libertarians had 283,492 in 2016, 65,470 in 2018, and 88,580 in 2012, so Libertarian votes could wipe out a significant chunk of Cruz's 215,000 vote winning differential.

I hope the Democrats hold off on making civil asset forfeitures illegal until after they sieze Trump's assets.

While purely anecdotal several commenters on dailykos have estimated that half of the people who supported Bernie in 2016 now support Warren. That would not surprise me, and I don't see those people going back to Bernie as nothing bad is sticking to Warren.

Yes, he distorted the facts.

It was still a hatchet job. Sirota is trying to become the left's version of Lee Atwater.

After the hatchet job Sirota did on Beto I can say I won't vote for a candidate that hires him.