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RayDog
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Everything posted by RayDog
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I recommend living someplace where women just walk up to you and say "I go home with you."
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I just saw a daikykos poll on favorite 2020 Democratic candidates and with 489 reponses. 27% Beto, 17% Kamala, 9% Biden, 7% Bernie, 5% Warren and others.
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Yes, He should fact check and retweet every single Trump tweet as soon as possible.
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History does not provide proof that gods cannot exist while science does.
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Science education.
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Politico is actively opposing progressive issues and specifically Medicare for all. So, they have been actively promoting Biden. Politico is not a politically neutral news source and anything they publish should be viewed with their corporate slant in mind.
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When did a pillow fight become felony assault? Next they'll say it is felony assault for spanking a girl on the ass while doing her doggy style.
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I am hopeful that undoing the gerrymandering in 2021 will help the Democrats minimize loses in 2022 even though it is the first midterm of a new Democratic president.
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Beto does not need much help with the ticket, but someone who would cement the Pa, Wi, and Mi vote could help. I am thinking more toward getting legislation passed and putting a senator in charge of the Senate is usually a good idea.
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Beto needs a political insider as a vp, preferably a senator. And it would not hurt if it is someone from the Midwest. Sherrod Brown? Better yet, Klobuchar.
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I saw a clip of Bernie saying he plans to propose that Medicare be extended to 55 year olds during the next session as a first step toward implementing his main bill which could only pass when Democrats control both houses and the presidency.
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Neoprene rubber is a translucent white before they add color, so it would be easy to do.
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Well over a million of those votes will come from the overwhelmingly Democratic counties, or counties trending Democratic by 3 to 4% every two years.
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The bigger issue for me is that we cannot have the cost of healthcare roughly doubling every 10 years. We need to get costs under control and keep increases in line with inflation. Private corporations do not like their growth capped at the rate of inflation.
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That and the last three Republican presidents won their first election by legitimate means. There may have been no Republican presidents after Reagan if it was not for their dirty tricks.
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As I mentioned before from 2012 to 2016, while the states on average went 4.5% more Republican, Texas went 6% more Democratic. Texas had the second biggest Democratic shift behind California (not counting Utah). The 2018 results largely fell on the same trend line in the largest counties. I expect that trend will continue through 2020. In real terms that means another net gain of 600,000 or so Democratic votes.
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Even so you still have to consider when they stop voting on a rolling average. It does not change the end result.
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Over 65s vote at more like a 70% rate nationwide. There were over 189,000 deaths in Texas, so probably 200,000 is a realistic number now. Over two years, as I stated, 400,000 people will die with about 280,000 being voters. If you use the 2-1 number you get 93,000.
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10 million Texans will vote in 2020. The Republican margin will be 1.1 million in the rural counties instead of 1 million as it was In 2016. In the urban and suburban counties there will be 1.7 million more voters. Will those 1.7 make up a 320,000 Republican rural advantage? Maybe. The Republicans also lose a net 100,000 to 150,000 every 2 years due to deaths, so factor that in. This year there was also an 8 point Democratic advantage among under 30 rural voters, so old rural voters voting 80% Republican are being replaced by voters who are less polarized.
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I read that of the 25 GOP held districts with the highest percentage of people with 4 year degrees Republicans lost 15 or 16 depending on Mimi Walters. Texas had 8 of the 25 and now 6 of the remaining 9. They are TX-3, 21, 24, 22, 26, and 2. These Texas districts are also among the fastest trending toward Democrats since 2012 and a few could flip in 2020.
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I hope it is not anyone I know from Varna.
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So much for the R's brilliant strategy of taking money from Social Security and Medicare.
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The rural vote was about 2 million out of 8.2 million in 2018. In 2020 it will be 2 million out of 10 million.
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The Democrats need to get 200,000 more votes in the suburbs in order to overcome the rural vote. That will be easier than changing the way rural folks vote.
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From a daikykos post showing the trend from 2012 to 2016 to 2018 in some key Texas confressional distrcts. District Area 2012 result 2016 result 2018 result TX-02Houston suburbs R+27 R+9 R+7.6 TX-03Dallas suburbs R+30 R+14 R+10 TX-06Dallas sub(ex)urbs R+17 R+12 R+7.7 TX-07Houston R+21 D+1 D+4.5 TX-10Houston-Austin R+20 R+9 R+4 TX-21Austin-San Antonio-rural R+22 R+10 R+2.8 TX-22Houston suburbs R+25 R+8 R+5 TX-23Rio Grande Valley R+2.6 D+3.4 R+0.5 TX-24Dallas suburbs R+22 R+6 R+3.2 TX-25Austin-rural R+22 R+15 R+8.9 TX-31Round Rock R+21 R+13 R+3.1 TX-32Dallas and suburbs R+15.5 D+2 D+6.3
