RayDog

They did not use one election for the data but the voter's history. So your point is invalid.

As a reminder, the data on the primary vote in Harris from a few days ago was that 22.8% voted in Republican primaries while 34.37% voted in Democratic primaries. This compares to 2018 when in total 33.0% had voted in Republican primaries and 28.6 in Democratic primaries and Beto won Harris county by 200,000 votes. Based on Similar numbers in Collin, Dallas, and Williamson the Republican turnout was lagging by 10% in early voting. So the high percentage turnout in formerly Republican leaning counties is due to a high turnout of both, but leaning Democratic in the early voting phase. In general, Texas is shifting Democratic by 1% to 1.5% per year over the last 8 years, so While Cruz had 50.9% of the vote, a better estimate is to adjust that 2% downward to 48.9% and recalculate. If you do that Biden wins considering the small 3rd party vote.

His hands, lips, area above his lips, and eyelids are all blue. Check out the pictures in the Moscow Mitch thread.

Last I checked there was 30% black voter turnout in the early absentee ballots in SC and 66.6% white. If that holds through election day LadyG could really lose.

The curse of Voldemort.

I imagine his feet are significantly worse.

I made some rough estimates of turnout based on 2016 turnout and the current early voting, which added about 5% to most counties from their 2016 result. Then based on the 1 to 1.5% per year loss in Republican votes since 2012 I took Beto's result in the 11 biggest counties and add 2%+ and rounded off to get the second percentage. I assumed 2% third party to get Trump's percentage. Beto won the biggest 11 counties by 945288 and this method predicts 1557499 for Biden which is easily enough to overcome Beto's 214,000 deficit. The 4th column is Biden's expected votes by county with the fifth column Trump's and the 6th is the difference. Harris 65% 60% 967039 612458 354,581 Dallas 65% 68% 617266 272323 344,943 Travis 70% 77% 458544 125,058 333,486 Bexar 62% 62% 454367 263826 190,541 El Paso 55% 76% 203849 85831 118,018 Hidalgo 55% 71% 152794 58105 94,689 Fort Bend 70% 58% 195466 134804 60,662 Tarrant 65% 52% 405530 358739 46,791 Williamson 71% 83% 143293 121664 21,629 Collin 72% 49% 227687 227687 0 Denton 70% 48% 189366 197257 -7,891 This might be enough to give MJ a chance in the senate race.

That is probably still around 500,000 statewide bring the total to between 6.3 and 6.4 million. There is a great shot at being over 7 million by Sunday. Some people put 7 million early votes as the point that things turn to Biden, but I prefer to think it is 8 million to be safer.

Since Beto lost by 214k to Cruz, Biden may only need an extra 20K go his way in each of the top 11 counties and hold the margins in the rest. Beto lost Collin by 21,811 and Denton by 24,095 with 61.38% and 59.46% respectively. Collin went over 67% in 2016 and should top 70% this time. Collin should have 65,000+ more votes than 2016 and an additional 65,000 new voters replacing those who died and moved, for 130k that need to be characterized. If the go 60/40 Biden they make up 26,000 and Biden wins Collin. If they go 55/45 Biden then Biden gains 13,000 toward his victory fund, which is still a win. Denton's situation is similar. I think they both go to Biden by a small margin. Now the bigger Democratic leaning counties Harris, Dallas, and Travis could gain over 220k combined versus 2018. Beto won Travis by 240k with a 64% turnout and 74.3% in his favor. With a 70% turnout and 76.5% of the vote, Biden would win Travis by 325,000 assuming 1.5% go third party. I think 300k is a very reasonable expectation for +60k from Travis alone. Biden should see bigger gains in Harris and Dallas.

Since TX-31 is Williamson and Bell it is easier to monitor than most seats and Williamson has nearly 168k votes at nearly 45% turnout while Bell nearly 54k at less than 25%. That bodes well for Donna Imam since in 2018 Williamson went Democratic but not enough to give MJ Hegar the win.

Based on those estimates it probably dipped to ~500K statewide putting Texas at just north of 5.8 million total. 7 million by Saturday night and 8.5 million by next Friday night is in the realm of possibility. Then even if half the people who voted on election day in 2016 vote on election day this time the total will be close to 11 million. If the election day vote is that low Texas will be called very fast. 8 million+ early votes should seal the win for Biden as long as 5 million or more are in the 11 biggest counties

I expect about 3 million who did not vote in 2016 out of 11 million total. Note that around 500,000 2016 voters have died and a similar number has moved out of state, so there can only be around 8 million who voted in 2016. Over 2.1 million new voters will be in the big 11 counties that voted almost 60/40 for Beto.

It is no surprise that Senate Republicans are jumping off the Trump train as they don't want 2022 to be another referendum on Trump. Looking ahead to 2022 it could be a blood bath if there is still an anti-Trump democratic turnout. Competitive open seats are in NC and PA, So far Competitive possibly open seats are in IA, AK, WI. And VT may be an open D seat where they will want to challenge. Competitive with an R incumbent in FL, OH, and possibly GA. Republicans may have another open seat in Alabama. Blunt had a tough challenge against Kander in 2016 an only got 49% of the vote. There are rumors Buttigieg could run in Indiana where Young only had 52% last time. Could SC be competitive again? Will Rand Paul face a primary challenger? They will be forced to waste resources in states they should win, and other resources in D leaning and tossup states. They will have to defend 8 to 12 seats.

I don't understand Nate's "polling." Per election project: Florida has 46.5% Democratic and 33.2% Republican returned ballots. Iowa is 52.6% Democratic and 30.3% Republican. Nevada is 46.7% Democratic to 32.4% Republican There is other less obvious data showing the other tossup state's early voting also leads Democratic by similar margins including Texas.

5.3 million have already voted with 700k and 600k the last 2 days. So if you make an aggressive prediction, you could guess 7 million this weekend and 8.5 by the end of early voting. Almost 4.7 million voted on election day 2016, so someone could imagine 3.5 million voting on election day. Right now we just don't know, but someone can certainly fantasize about 71% 12 million turnout. Williamson and Collin topped 67% in 2016, with Travis, Denton, and Fort Bend over 64%. Williamson, Collin, Denton, Travis, Galveston, Brazoria, Lubbock, and Hays all appear to be on pace to break 70%. Harris, Dallas, and others should break 65% as they are halfway there. That is why I say 11 million is possible.

That is over halfway to the 65% turnout that is needed for a Biden win. 65% statewide would be 11 million. If early voting stopped today and the same number of people who voted on election day in 2016 vote on election day this time, there would be 10 million votes. Each day is a step closer to the 11 million mark.

A Dailykos writer txjackalope looked up the voting history in early voters in Collin, Williamson, Harris, and Dallas, and it shows that Democrats are way ahead of their totals in 2016 and 2018 so far. So if you weren't convinced that there is a democratic advantage in early voting, now you know. Here is the data from the story. (sorry about the poor formatting, but I did not feel like cleaning it up.) R Primary Voter No D history: Mixed Primary Last R: D Primary Voter no R history: Mixed Primary Last D Gen Elec Voter No Primary: New Voter Collin 20 30.3% 0.3% 24.5% 3.8% 28.4% 12.7% Collin 18 40.5% 0.8% 17.9% 1.5% 29.7% 6.9% Collin 16 43.3% 0.6% 13.7% 1.2% 28.5% 12.7% Williamson 20 29.0% 0.4% 30.4% 4.3% 24.5% 11.4% Williamson 18 37.9% 1.0% 22.8% 1.9% 26.4% 8.3% Williamson 16 41.1% 0.9% 19.1% 1.6% 25.1% 12.1% Harris 20 22.5% 0.3% 32.0% 2.7% 30.6% 11.9% Harris 18 32.3% 0.7% 27.2% 1.4% 30.0% 5.5% Harris 16 31.2% 0.9% 24.4% 0.9% 30.5% 12.2% Dallas 20 18.4% 0.5% 41.2% 3.9% 25.5% 10.6% Dallas 18 27.0% 0.8% 33.7% 2.0% 28.0% 6.5% Dallas 16 28.5% 1.1% 29.9% 1.2% 28.1% 11.2% The Link

Cruz (2018) : 50.9%

The exit polls after Doug Jones victory showed the under 45s voted for Jones by almost 60/40. Between the young vote, Black vote, and olds dying Alabama, like Georgia, is trending left faster than most people think.

Regarding the trends in Collin, Denton, Galveston, Brazoria, and Bell that some people asked about here are the net results for 2012, 2016 and 2018 showing the trend. Collin 2012-95,473, 2016-60,390, 2018-21,811 Denton 2012-76,601, 2016-59,713, 2018-24,095 Galveston 2012-29548, 2016-30,099,2018-22,576 Brazoria 2012-36,441, 2016-29,591, 2018-20,465 Bell 2012-14,062, 2016-14,187, 2018-9,020 There is also the fact that the generic ballot was plus 7 or 8 before Biden's polling average shot up over 10. And another fact that both Clinton and Beto beat their polling average in Texas by around 3% indicting that pollsters are not accounting for the true percentage of Democratic voters. I think the polling could be off by as much as 4-5% this time. I thinking Biden wins Collin and Denton by less than 10K, while Trump wins Galveston and Brazoria, by around 10K, with Bell a tossup that could go a couple thousand votes either way. The early voting in 2016 and 2018 favored the Democrats in Texas, so I see early voting success as a good sign, not something to worry about. Montgomery is still not close. The trend is Montgomery 2012-105,409, 2016-104,479, 2018-86,127. So Trump should win it by 50-70K. But if Democrats net 20K when compared to Beto's result that is still a nice plus as it all adds up.

Due to demographic shifts I expect Collin, Denton, Galveston, Brazoria, and Bell to be close to net zero combined. Which would be a gain of 100,000 votes that Beto lost.

It looks like the top 11 counties topped 2 million total combined votes today. If they have 6.5 million votes, 65%, Biden will win if they match Beto's 60/40 percentage there. I am still watching to see if they break 5 million in early voting as the tipping point should be somewhere in the 4.5 to 5 million range. They should be halfway to 5 million by this time tomorrow at the current pace. Republicans must be kicking themselves for adding a week to early voting.

Demographics in Texas are shifting the vote by 1 to 1.5% per year in the biggest counties. I am also assuming that Trump 2020 will do worse than Cruz 2018, so I expect Biden will win Tarrant by a 2-3% higher margin, perhaps a little more. A better liked Republican could certainly still win there.

60% statewide, but Biden only needs 65% in the 11 largest counties. In 2016 it was Williamson 67.70%, Collin 67.27%, Fort Bend 64.86%, Travis 64.65%, and Denton 64.25%. Fort Bend is off to a slow start but the other 4 could top 70%. Harris 58.72%, Dallas 58.97%, and Tarrant 62.04% were below 65% in 2016 but could easily top it this time. Bexar 56.41%, Hidalgo 51.23%, and El Paso 49.96% were the lowest in 2016 and probably will be again, the closer to 60% they get the better, but hopefully the other big counties bring up the average. A 60/40 split of 65% of 10 million voters gives Biden a 1.3 million advantage in just those counties. If Republicans don't show up in the other counties and drag down turnout so much the better. I still think if 5 million vote early or early absentee in those 11 counties Biden wins. Note that Beto beat Cruz by 240K in Dallas and Travis, 200K in Harris, 100K in Bexar and El Paso, 57 K in Hidalgo, 30K in Fort Bend, 6K Williamson and 4K in Tarrant. Biden gains a 1.3 million+ advantage in those 9 counties. Hopefully Collin (-22K) and Denton (-24K) are closer to a tie this time.

The 200k number is from DSHS fir 2017 and the 65% numbers were national numbers from Pew Research.