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RayDog

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Everything posted by RayDog

  1. RayDog
    Correction. It was a Republican state.
  2. RayDog
    If Beto wins the nomination he won't be able to help himself as far as campaigning Texas. Some states will get extra presidential attention because of Senate races. Maine, Colorado, and Arizona most importantly. But depending on matchup, Iowa, Kansas (open seat?), North Carolina, and Georgia (Abrams?). There are other states that could have interesting Senate races, including Texas (Beto?), Oklahoma (open seat?), West Virginia (Ojeda), Alaska (Kavanaugh fallout). The Senate race makes it a broader map.
  3. RayDog
    The tariffs will cause a lot of pain over the next two years. And, I expect a recession too that hits the midwest and rust belt hard.
  4. RayDog
    The Democrats are going to try to GOTV among the AA community in MS for the special Senate election on the 27th hoping to catch the Republicans napping. It is a long shot but I wish them luck.
  5. RayDog
    That is what happened. That and Beto generally underperformed on estimates because I based them on presidential years, since I realized 2014 was an even worse comparison Cruz basically had 200,000 more rural votes than I expected, and Beto had maybe 150,000 less in the larger counties than I expected. I won't know for sure until I look at the final county by county numbers. If this same race happens with 2020 demographics in a presidential year, Beto wins. Not that that means anything.
  6. RayDog
    My estimate ( pre Kavanaugh hearing) was Beto/Hegar winning Wilco by 8000 to 9000, but losing Bell by around 6000. If Hegar or someone who is an equally good candidate runs in 2020 the demographic shifts should put a Democrat over the top in that district.
  7. RayDog
    I predicted Williamson and Tarrant would flip due to demographic trends. I had Collin at 52%+R, which was albout right. They are next largest and could flip in 2020. Denton and Montgomery are the next 2 of the largest 11 counties. Denton should flip by 2024 possibly sooner, while Montgomery is many years away if ever.
  8. RayDog

    Cruz vs Beto

    RayDog replied to Washpark's topic in Cloak Room

    Saying no in the middle of a Senate run is meaningless, particularly given Cruz's history.
  9. RayDog
    I still think we will have a recession sometime in the next two years.
  10. RayDog
    From 2012 to 2016 in the 11 largest Texas counties with 50% of the vote the Republican vote percentage dropped 7.5% on average. About 3% of that though went to Libertarian and Green candidates. I have not looked up the real county by county results to see which ones fell on that line and which didn't. And figure out which way the one-time Libertarian voters went.
  11. RayDog
    Republican voters are dying off as fast as they are being replaced. The demographic shift is about 3% every 2 years toward the Democrats. 2024 was and still is the real target date for the switch, unless the Democrats have a really great candidate.
  12. RayDog
    The house districts swung 10% on average. That is a pretty big swing. Note that the averag swing toward the Republican presidential nominee by state from 2012 to 2016 was 4.5%. So the correction reversed Republican gains from 2016 and went about the same amount toward the Democrats. I hope for an additional 5% in 2020.
  13. RayDog
    Right, i was thinking ahead.
  14. RayDog
    The left leaning base won't come out for a Republican-lite Democrat. The Republicans win by exciting their base. Democrats need to do the same.
  15. RayDog
    After last night I would ad Kansas to that list, and with the proper candidate maybe Florida.
  16. RayDog
    What's your point? Trump won't win PA, WI, and MI again, so whoever gets the Democratic nomination will be the president in 2021. It could be Beto.
  17. RayDog
    Did you actually read the definition posted above? He may not be everyone's ideal of charismatic, but he is to a lot of people.
  18. RayDog
    I agree on all of that.
  19. RayDog
    I meant 60% in national polling. In that respect Cruz is right that he is a better candidate outside of Texas.
  20. RayDog
    I am a dreamer. What can I say.
  21. RayDog
    Beto's postions have 60% public approval. How are they not centrist? Democrats commonly labeled as centrist are now more accurately right wing Democrats.
  22. RayDog
    That's the point. Beto is the closest the Democrats have to a young Bill Clinton.
  23. RayDog
    People should never have their right to vote taken away for being inactive.
  24. RayDog
    The newly eligible 1.4 million felons will have a say in how Florida leans going forward. It should be competitive in 2020, and not a state to write off.
  25. RayDog
    Add anti-gerrymandering ballot initiatives to the pot and voter rights initiatives.

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