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RayDog

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Everything posted by RayDog

  1. Even so you still have to consider when they stop voting on a rolling average. It does not change the end result.
  2. Over 65s vote at more like a 70% rate nationwide. There were over 189,000 deaths in Texas, so probably 200,000 is a realistic number now. Over two years, as I stated, 400,000 people will die with about 280,000 being voters. If you use the 2-1 number you get 93,000.
  3. 10 million Texans will vote in 2020. The Republican margin will be 1.1 million in the rural counties instead of 1 million as it was In 2016. In the urban and suburban counties there will be 1.7 million more voters. Will those 1.7 make up a 320,000 Republican rural advantage? Maybe. The Republicans also lose a net 100,000 to 150,000 every 2 years due to deaths, so factor that in. This year there was also an 8 point Democratic advantage among under 30 rural voters, so old rural voters voting 80% Republican are being replaced by voters who are less polarized.
  4. I read that of the 25 GOP held districts with the highest percentage of people with 4 year degrees Republicans lost 15 or 16 depending on Mimi Walters. Texas had 8 of the 25 and now 6 of the remaining 9. They are TX-3, 21, 24, 22, 26, and 2. These Texas districts are also among the fastest trending toward Democrats since 2012 and a few could flip in 2020.
  5. I hope it is not anyone I know from Varna.
  6. So much for the R's brilliant strategy of taking money from Social Security and Medicare.
  7. The rural vote was about 2 million out of 8.2 million in 2018. In 2020 it will be 2 million out of 10 million.
  8. The Democrats need to get 200,000 more votes in the suburbs in order to overcome the rural vote. That will be easier than changing the way rural folks vote.
  9. From a daikykos post showing the trend from 2012 to 2016 to 2018 in some key Texas confressional distrcts. District Area 2012 result 2016 result 2018 result TX-02Houston suburbs R+27 R+9 R+7.6 TX-03Dallas suburbs R+30 R+14 R+10 TX-06Dallas sub(ex)urbs R+17 R+12 R+7.7 TX-07Houston R+21 D+1 D+4.5 TX-10Houston-Austin R+20 R+9 R+4 TX-21Austin-San Antonio-rural R+22 R+10 R+2.8 TX-22Houston suburbs R+25 R+8 R+5 TX-23Rio Grande Valley R+2.6 D+3.4 R+0.5 TX-24Dallas suburbs R+22 R+6 R+3.2 TX-25Austin-rural R+22 R+15 R+8.9 TX-31Round Rock R+21 R+13 R+3.1 TX-32Dallas and suburbs R+15.5 D+2 D+6.3
  10. Correction. It was a Republican state.
  11. If Beto wins the nomination he won't be able to help himself as far as campaigning Texas. Some states will get extra presidential attention because of Senate races. Maine, Colorado, and Arizona most importantly. But depending on matchup, Iowa, Kansas (open seat?), North Carolina, and Georgia (Abrams?). There are other states that could have interesting Senate races, including Texas (Beto?), Oklahoma (open seat?), West Virginia (Ojeda), Alaska (Kavanaugh fallout). The Senate race makes it a broader map.
  12. The tariffs will cause a lot of pain over the next two years. And, I expect a recession too that hits the midwest and rust belt hard.
  13. The Democrats are going to try to GOTV among the AA community in MS for the special Senate election on the 27th hoping to catch the Republicans napping. It is a long shot but I wish them luck.
  14. That is what happened. That and Beto generally underperformed on estimates because I based them on presidential years, since I realized 2014 was an even worse comparison Cruz basically had 200,000 more rural votes than I expected, and Beto had maybe 150,000 less in the larger counties than I expected. I won't know for sure until I look at the final county by county numbers. If this same race happens with 2020 demographics in a presidential year, Beto wins. Not that that means anything.
  15. My estimate ( pre Kavanaugh hearing) was Beto/Hegar winning Wilco by 8000 to 9000, but losing Bell by around 6000. If Hegar or someone who is an equally good candidate runs in 2020 the demographic shifts should put a Democrat over the top in that district.
  16. I predicted Williamson and Tarrant would flip due to demographic trends. I had Collin at 52%+R, which was albout right. They are next largest and could flip in 2020. Denton and Montgomery are the next 2 of the largest 11 counties. Denton should flip by 2024 possibly sooner, while Montgomery is many years away if ever.
  17. Saying no in the middle of a Senate run is meaningless, particularly given Cruz's history.
  18. I still think we will have a recession sometime in the next two years.
  19. From 2012 to 2016 in the 11 largest Texas counties with 50% of the vote the Republican vote percentage dropped 7.5% on average. About 3% of that though went to Libertarian and Green candidates. I have not looked up the real county by county results to see which ones fell on that line and which didn't. And figure out which way the one-time Libertarian voters went.
  20. Republican voters are dying off as fast as they are being replaced. The demographic shift is about 3% every 2 years toward the Democrats. 2024 was and still is the real target date for the switch, unless the Democrats have a really great candidate.
  21. The house districts swung 10% on average. That is a pretty big swing. Note that the averag swing toward the Republican presidential nominee by state from 2012 to 2016 was 4.5%. So the correction reversed Republican gains from 2016 and went about the same amount toward the Democrats. I hope for an additional 5% in 2020.
  22. Right, i was thinking ahead.
  23. The left leaning base won't come out for a Republican-lite Democrat. The Republicans win by exciting their base. Democrats need to do the same.
  24. After last night I would ad Kansas to that list, and with the proper candidate maybe Florida.
  25. What's your point? Trump won't win PA, WI, and MI again, so whoever gets the Democratic nomination will be the president in 2021. It could be Beto.
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