Jump to content

RayDog

Full Members
  • Posts

    1386
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by RayDog

  1. Did you actually read the definition posted above? He may not be everyone's ideal of charismatic, but he is to a lot of people.
  2. I agree on all of that.
  3. I meant 60% in national polling. In that respect Cruz is right that he is a better candidate outside of Texas.
  4. I am a dreamer. What can I say.
  5. Beto's postions have 60% public approval. How are they not centrist? Democrats commonly labeled as centrist are now more accurately right wing Democrats.
  6. That's the point. Beto is the closest the Democrats have to a young Bill Clinton.
  7. People should never have their right to vote taken away for being inactive.
  8. The newly eligible 1.4 million felons will have a say in how Florida leans going forward. It should be competitive in 2020, and not a state to write off.
  9. Add anti-gerrymandering ballot initiatives to the pot and voter rights initiatives.
  10. With 10 million plus in turnout there is a chance to make up the 220,000 votes. A net of over 100,000 will simply die off.
  11. I have been thinking all morning about if Beto decides to run would I want to move back to the states and work on his campaign.
  12. No, on my computer.
  13. I work off a spreedsheet based on established trends from 2012 to now. I am not pulling numbers out of my ass as you contend. Once we have results I will compare them to my projections.
  14. Yes. I never received my absentee ballot from Travis County so I will download a provisional ballot from fvap.gov and mail it in tomorrow.
  15. Texas has as many ineligible felons as Vermont has voters.
  16. My recollection is that in 2016 the election day turnout in Texas was strongly Republican, so a somewhat weaker number with 7.5m total should be good for Democrats.
  17. I hope you realize that since the Republicans have controlled what pieces of gun legislation, or anything else, that reaches the floor that Beto voted for bills with bipartisan support.
  18. Just received an email from the Beto campaign. 7.8% of early voters were newly registered in 2018.
  19. My track record with elections sucks
  20. Why? I am a physicist. Analytical problem solving is what I do.
  21. Beto gets 200,000 to 250,000 from greens and never Trump one time libertarians. He gets 200,000 in rural counties when Cruz polls closer to Romney than Trump. Harris plus 90,000 compared to Clinton/Trump, Dallas 60,000, Tarrant 60,000, Bexar 30,000, Travis 40,000, Collin 30,000, Denton 25,000, Fort Bend 25,000, Montgomery 30,000, etc... It all adds up to a Beto win.
  22. Tarrant went 51.7% for Trump by 57,000 votes after going 57.1% for Romney. With that trend and other trends away from Republicans, Beto is going to win Tarrant.
  23. Green party was 0.8% about 0.5% higher than 2012. Libertarians were 3.2% about 2.5% higher than 2012. Beto can get 2.9% from there alone. Also on rural vote Trump had almost 75% in the 228 smallest counties. Romney only had 70.8%. Beto's efforts and Cruz's unlikability should keep Cruz below 70% in those counties.
  24. Beto called the only witness, the woman in the car, and she said no.
  25. I finally found the figure for 18-29 year olds who voted in Texas in 2014 and it was 13% of the 4.6 million. Their early vote has been reported at over 500% higher than 2014. If that figure held for the entire election it would mean 3 million more 18-29 year olds voted in 2018 than 2014. Even if it is more realistically 1.5 million it would flip Texas solid blue. That 500% figure tells us that the high early voting in Texas definitely favors Democrats. And it is well above my most conservative estimates which still have Beto winning by 1-2%. I similarly think Florida and Georgia will experience new voter turnout that far exceeds the demographics used by pollsters. The Arizona senate seat is looking more solid for the Democrats too. Losing Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Texas at the same time would be catastrophic to the gop and probably give the Democrats the Senate. As for the house it would not surprise me if the Democrats get a 60% majority the way things look.
×
×
  • Create New...