RayDog

With 10 million plus in turnout there is a chance to make up the 220,000 votes. A net of over 100,000 will simply die off.

I have been thinking all morning about if Beto decides to run would I want to move back to the states and work on his campaign.

No, on my computer.

I work off a spreedsheet based on established trends from 2012 to now. I am not pulling numbers out of my ass as you contend. Once we have results I will compare them to my projections.

Yes. I never received my absentee ballot from Travis County so I will download a provisional ballot from fvap.gov and mail it in tomorrow.

Texas has as many ineligible felons as Vermont has voters.

My recollection is that in 2016 the election day turnout in Texas was strongly Republican, so a somewhat weaker number with 7.5m total should be good for Democrats.

I hope you realize that since the Republicans have controlled what pieces of gun legislation, or anything else, that reaches the floor that Beto voted for bills with bipartisan support.

Just received an email from the Beto campaign. 7.8% of early voters were newly registered in 2018.

My track record with elections sucks

Why? I am a physicist. Analytical problem solving is what I do.

Beto gets 200,000 to 250,000 from greens and never Trump one time libertarians. He gets 200,000 in rural counties when Cruz polls closer to Romney than Trump. Harris plus 90,000 compared to Clinton/Trump, Dallas 60,000, Tarrant 60,000, Bexar 30,000, Travis 40,000, Collin 30,000, Denton 25,000, Fort Bend 25,000, Montgomery 30,000, etc... It all adds up to a Beto win.

Tarrant went 51.7% for Trump by 57,000 votes after going 57.1% for Romney. With that trend and other trends away from Republicans, Beto is going to win Tarrant.

Green party was 0.8% about 0.5% higher than 2012. Libertarians were 3.2% about 2.5% higher than 2012. Beto can get 2.9% from there alone. Also on rural vote Trump had almost 75% in the 228 smallest counties. Romney only had 70.8%. Beto's efforts and Cruz's unlikability should keep Cruz below 70% in those counties.

Beto called the only witness, the woman in the car, and she said no.

I finally found the figure for 18-29 year olds who voted in Texas in 2014 and it was 13% of the 4.6 million. Their early vote has been reported at over 500% higher than 2014. If that figure held for the entire election it would mean 3 million more 18-29 year olds voted in 2018 than 2014. Even if it is more realistically 1.5 million it would flip Texas solid blue. That 500% figure tells us that the high early voting in Texas definitely favors Democrats. And it is well above my most conservative estimates which still have Beto winning by 1-2%. I similarly think Florida and Georgia will experience new voter turnout that far exceeds the demographics used by pollsters. The Arizona senate seat is looking more solid for the Democrats too. Losing Arizona, Florida, Georgia, and Texas at the same time would be catastrophic to the gop and probably give the Democrats the Senate. As for the house it would not surprise me if the Democrats get a 60% majority the way things look.

Right? Our left left is still right of most other democracies I am talking about Texas based on polling. That includes his positions on guns.

He is in the center.

Given this turnout Beto is still in good shape, although about 3 points or so worse than before the Kavanaugh hearings. I think he will be up by enough in the 26 largest counties, to hold off the rural vote. Hillary won the big 26 counties by 262,000, and Beto should win them by 850,000 plus, based on demographics and current turnout. Of the 12 largest counties Democrats should win 9, the Republicans 2, with Collin a toss-up. By 2020 Democrats should win 11 of the 12 as long as they have a decent candidate. The congressional districts are too hard to call with county data alone because of the way they are gerrymandered, except MJ Hegar looks good since her district is Williamson and Bell counties and Wilco is way ahead of Bell in voter turnout. If MJ wins I expect a few other Democrats will win congressional seats in Texas, but I have not taken the time to break down the districts.

If they use Republican and Democratic turnout percentages from 2014 or 2016 they are highly flawed, and a lot of polls do.

Between 2016 and 2018 many of the largest Texas counties have 5% more registered voters. Due to death snd moving another 5% have been replaced, so there are more than 10% new voters. If you go back to 2014 make it 20% or more people who will vote in 2018 who were not a county resident or not registered in 2014. Any polling model that does not account for the demographics related to 20% of the voters will be flawed.

Hillary won Harris by 160,000 votes and her net for the largest 26 counties, which have 75% of the vote, was 260,000. Factoring ongoing demographic shifts I expect Beto to win Harris by 270,000 +/- 30,000. He should also be up by that amount in Dallas county. Given the almost 2016 turnout he really needs to be up by 500,000 votes in those two counties combined to have a chance.

Trump got 8.1% fewer votes than Romney, so based on a 4% decrease every 2 years due to demographics Wilco should be slightly Democratic in 2018. Based on moves away from the Republican party by educated voters and women Beto could conceivably win Wilco by 4% or more.

Williamson at 22.81% and Bell at 13.16% is great news for MJ Hegar. Willco should flip to Democrat giving her the lead there while Bell should still tilt Republican. Going into it the two counties looked like the might offset each other making it a close race, but with Willco that far ahead I am liking MJ's chances.

When I was an R&D manager at in instrumentation company we used to do what we called, dumb monkey testing, in other words mimicking a monkey at the keyboard randomly hitting keystrokes. It was always easy to find a sequence that programmers failed to test that caused errors. While I don't trust Republicans as far as I can throw them, it would not surprise me if this is a problem due to bad software and failures to test it adequately.