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RayDog

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Everything posted by RayDog

  1. It is the Duterte effect. Populist authoritarianism is in here in the Philippines. The Aussie, Brit, and ex- military expats here love him too.
  2. My first thought was someone put something stupid in one of his fake summons envelopes.
  3. Once the voting restoration act passes that will make Florida lean about 3% democratic is my guess.
  4. You are right. I apologize. Somehow I got the impression she had gone into another room. Since there were at least two witnesses by her account I would hope they are honest when questioned by the FBI.
  5. It sounds like lots of people remember the Ramirez allegation based on email exchanges. Assuming they were the only two in the room, people knew because Kavanaugh bragged about it. If I was Garrett/squi i would remember if one of my friends did something to a girl I took to a party in high school to make her run off and leave me and I am a couple years older than him.
  6. So far we know he had 2.8 million from actblue in July and 9.1 million in August, so he has about 18 million this quarter that we know of. Given the missing 3 weeks and various other sources he could easily be in the 23 to 25 million range for the quarter and 46 to 48 million to date. Based on minimal research both should be records for donations from small individual donations for a Senate race.
  7. Over 5.75 million now
  8. At this point I think any red state democratic senator who votes for Kavanaugh will be in trouble due to a loss of democratic votes. I want to see a democratic majority in the Senate but I could not vote for anyone who votes to confirm that piece of shit.
  9. Beto over 5.5 million now.
  10. There is no way he wrote that tweet. The grammar is beyond his skill level.
  11. You're slow. Everyone already knows it is Garrett who was her friend. The one that Republicans stupidly claimed was the look-a-like she didn't know. And per Kavanaugh he was there.
  12. Beto is over 3.7 million from almost 85000 in his effort to get 5 million in the last week of October. It looks like he could make it.
  13. I think each president should get to appoint a fixed number of justices each 4 year term (1 or 2) and let the number of justices float.
  14. I just ran into a friend at breakfast who ran for Senate at one time, and he said that his 5 boys went to Georgetown Prep and that all the stories we are hearing are exactly the way it is there. His boys hosted house parties at his house many times, but he said his boys did not do anything wrong. He told me that one night he went downstairs and a girl was passed out drunk on the sofa. He told his boys that someone should take her home and the said they couldn't because it was Gore's daughter. So he an his wife put her in the back seat of their car and took her to the VP's home and dropped her off once they got past the Secret Service.
  15. Only conservatives who don't believe women accusers and instead support rapists, but Beto wasn't getting their votes anyway. I doubt he even wants them.
  16. I found a video on youtube (linked below) that claims Ted is lying about his account of his sister's death as she died of combined drug intoxication from prescription drugs that were legally (but erroneously) prescribed. She technically did not overdose. She also was not addicted to the drugs she was taking, nor was she known to be taking recreational drugs at that time. She did have a previous history of actual drug abuse, but Ted has apparently fabricated this story to pull out in just such situations. https://youtu.be/APiaJ1Sxmv4
  17. He knows where he has to reach his donors.
  18. In the 4 PPP polls the margin went from 8% to 6% to 4% to 3% and tracked Beto's progress very well. The debates will help close that gap.
  19. I think he was trying to get banned with the fewest posts.
  20. It is the only way to reach a significant percentage of likely Beto voters.
  21. I think Abbott will do about 8-10 points better than Cruz. I don't see too many more people splitting there ticket between those races.
  22. Eligible voters are about 50/50 by demographics in Texas. I have not seen new numbers on registered voters but about a million more potential Democrats registered in 2016 than Republicans. I suspect that registered voters are approaching 50/50 in 2018. Based on trends the percentage of actual Democratic voters is going up about 1% a year. We also know from polling that about 10% of Republicans have left the party in the past two years with many planning to vote Democratic so any poll that fails to adjust for that is no good. Putting that all together if I were a pollster I would try to get 0 - 3% more Republicans in my Texas poll.
  23. The Qpac poll had 35% Republican and 26% Democratic respondents in case you need to know where the 9% difference comes from. This is still a GOTV exercise. Likely voter polls do not account for new and unlikely voters. If you only let people vote who voted in 2016 and 2014, of course Cruz would win.
  24. Any update on how many people have RSVP'd for Willie's concert?
  25. Flake wants the vote delayed, so perhaps there is a chance.
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