RayDog

That is why Dems need to win the Lt. Governor and AG now. By 2020 the shifts to Democrats in suburban areas of Texas may lead to a reverse gerrymandering effect.

The only difference between prayer and witchcraft is what they call the person doing it.

Since over 60% of the country approves her policy positions it is a lie to call her an extremist. It is funny that 95% of people are opposed to political corruption, yet the right lines up against her anti-corruption bills and call them extremist.

Thanks for your help. The FPCA form had the answer to my question that I have to enter my last US/Texas address even though I have sold the house. I have filled out the form and will find a place to print it, then sign it, scan it and email it to Travis County. That should do it. Now mailing the ballot back using the Philippines mail is another story. Since my return is uncertain I will only vote in the federal races. I would love to vote Abbott out of office since he personally ordered my firing, but realistically I will probably have another chance to do that in 2022.

He must gave forgotten, or doesn't know that the SD19 special election had almost the same district at 60% democratic.

I hope I have a chance to piss on his grave.

MJ Hegar is about 60th on the prognosticator's lists and I am thinking Beto helps her win Wilco easily and make even Bell a toss-up. I have been thinking the dems gain 50 to 60 seats but now that Trump's approval rating is at 36% and Mueller's over 60%, 60 to 70 seats is possible. I think the dems will exceed a 60% majority.

I hope it comes out he worked for Cruz before Trump.

What are the odds Trump calls him Lyin' Ted during his Texas appearance?

I bet Beto could get a bigger turnout than Trump.

Nah, Cruz is just after the MS-13 vote since Republicans have been so successful building up their image. I am surprised there isn't a Gangs Against Legalization PAC funneling money to Republicans.

That is probably the stupid J Street claim. J Street is consolidating individual contributions through their website. Cruz's campaign keeps claiming it is a PAC donation (from Soros) rather than what it actual is. You can go to opensecrets and see that he has no received PAC money.

BetoSong

The growth in the large counties continues to be pretty constant, and those new voters are going overwhelmingly to the Democrats. The Republicans saw an average of 7.5% decline in their vote percentage vote from 2012 to 2016 in the large counties, averaged by county while the total Republican vote changed very little. I think a linear approximation is fair.

I meant to add that the Republican vote actually dropped 8,868 votes in the 26 largest counties between 2012 and 2016, so the effective growth in those counties went Democrat and Libertarian. I expect most of the one-time Libertarians will vote for Beto, and that 5 to 10% of the Republicans will as well.

In the 26 largest counties with 75% of the voters Republicans won by 332,590 votes in 2012, but the Democrats won by 262,992 votes in 2016. The Libertarian vote increased by 161,147 votes at the same time representing potential swing voters. Statewide the Libertarian vote went up about 195,000. If you look at actual data Democrats have made inroads. In the 228 smaller counties the Republicans won by 929,129 votes in 2012 and 1070171 votes in 2016 a 141,042 improvement. Based on linearly extending the simple 2012 to 2016 trend and assuming a 60% midterm turnout for both parties the Democrats would win the big counties by 559,543 votes. A 60% decrease in smaller county turnout from 2016 would give the Republicans a 642,102 vote advantage there for a net win of 82,559 votes statewide. This is before factoring in what the swing Libertarian vote does, or if there is a blue wave, or that 10% of Republicans have abandoned the party, and many other bad trends for the Republicans. A recent poll put Cruz's support in rural areas at 66%, when the R advantage in the 228 smallest counties was 72.5% in 2012 and 74.6% in 2016. If Cruz only has 66% support in the 228 smallest counties, not all of which is rural by the way, he only wins them by 443,205, once again assuming a 60% turnout by both sides. I am starting to think there is a realistic possibility that Beto will have a 800,000 to a million vote advantage in the 26 biggest counties, and the rural vote will be unable to make up the difference. That comes to a 6 to 10 point win. I am hoping that this will lead the Democrats to victory in the Lt. Governor and Attorney General races, along with flipping 3-5 US congressional seats. It is regrettable that the Democrats failed to run a decent candidate for Governor, because Beto's blue wave might have pulled a good candidate across the line.

Don't show this to Trump. He will think Cruz is MS-13.

Drain the swamp!

My point.

I wonder if Trump understands that he must resign or be removed in order to get pardoned so he can avoid a federal prison sentence?

Or perhaps committing election fraud in Johnson county. They still have not explained how Kobach went from losing in the county to winning after they shut down the count for 5 and a half hours.

1. Last I saw Beto had received over 100,000 from J street. 2. J street is consolidating individual donations each below the limit. I am not aware of a donation from Soros but he is entitled to his $2700. 3. J street donors support a 2 state solution as does Beto. Beto also made statements about moving the embassy not being helpful, which were appreciated by the J street crowd. 4. Reading between the lines it appears that Cruz must be opposed to the 2 state solution.

It amazes me that Cruz is defending Alex Jones saying that he needs free speech on facebook when congress destroyed the idea of free speech on social media sites when they went after backpage. There is probably more than a million times the incidence of solititation of minors on facebook than was ever on backpage.

When I went to UT tuition and fees were less than $1000 a semester. We definitely can afford to return to that level of state support plus that little extra. I dont think anyone is proposing covering cost of living, just like we dont in high school. Many people will still need to work to live while they go to school. Two proposals I have read also cut it off at family incomes if 85,000 and about 130,000 respectively. As for cost it is estimated to be 75 billion a year. Bernie wants to pay for it out of a 300 billion tax on Wall Street speculators with most of the rest going to infrastucture projects to but a million people to work. Others have proposed paying for it by rolling back the last two years of defense spending increases. I am ok with both proposals.

With senators greenlighting the firing of Sessions after the election if I were in Mueller's position I would have an up to date report and a stack of indictments ready to go on election day just in case.