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RayDog

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Everything posted by RayDog

  1. I think Gillum brings in enough new voters to put Nelson over the top. I only worry about ND at this point, but I think she holds on too for a Democratic sweep of the seats they hold. I also feel good about Democrats flipping AZ, NV and TX, while still having a good shot at TN.
  2. A bad guess.
  3. I wish Twitter would start fact checking Trump's tweets.
  4. The corporations want Biden, but he won't win. No one will overcome Bernie's advantage.
  5. No. He will win the nomination.
  6. I plan to ask some Aussies I know about this. I used to respect Aussies but I am used to dealing with scientists. In Ph they have bad tats, get drunk, fight, smoke, treat women like shit and Filipinos in general. I stay away from them. Oh, and they think their beef is awesome when it tastes like shit and they have to put sauce on it to make it edible.
  7. I am expecting a wave of oldtimers being primaried by progressives in 2020 especially with Bernie on top of the primary ticket.
  8. Do you know how i know you ain't from around here?
  9. The LtGov has some control of legislation in the Senate, and can hopefully fight fora fair map.. The AG would have to defend racial gerrymandering in court.
  10. That is why Dems need to win the Lt. Governor and AG now. By 2020 the shifts to Democrats in suburban areas of Texas may lead to a reverse gerrymandering effect.
  11. The only difference between prayer and witchcraft is what they call the person doing it.
  12. Since over 60% of the country approves her policy positions it is a lie to call her an extremist. It is funny that 95% of people are opposed to political corruption, yet the right lines up against her anti-corruption bills and call them extremist.
  13. Thanks for your help. The FPCA form had the answer to my question that I have to enter my last US/Texas address even though I have sold the house. I have filled out the form and will find a place to print it, then sign it, scan it and email it to Travis County. That should do it. Now mailing the ballot back using the Philippines mail is another story. Since my return is uncertain I will only vote in the federal races. I would love to vote Abbott out of office since he personally ordered my firing, but realistically I will probably have another chance to do that in 2022.
  14. He must gave forgotten, or doesn't know that the SD19 special election had almost the same district at 60% democratic.
  15. I hope I have a chance to piss on his grave.
  16. MJ Hegar is about 60th on the prognosticator's lists and I am thinking Beto helps her win Wilco easily and make even Bell a toss-up. I have been thinking the dems gain 50 to 60 seats but now that Trump's approval rating is at 36% and Mueller's over 60%, 60 to 70 seats is possible. I think the dems will exceed a 60% majority.
  17. I hope it comes out he worked for Cruz before Trump.
  18. What are the odds Trump calls him Lyin' Ted during his Texas appearance?
  19. I bet Beto could get a bigger turnout than Trump.
  20. Nah, Cruz is just after the MS-13 vote since Republicans have been so successful building up their image. I am surprised there isn't a Gangs Against Legalization PAC funneling money to Republicans.
  21. That is probably the stupid J Street claim. J Street is consolidating individual contributions through their website. Cruz's campaign keeps claiming it is a PAC donation (from Soros) rather than what it actual is. You can go to opensecrets and see that he has no received PAC money.
  22. BetoSong
  23. The growth in the large counties continues to be pretty constant, and those new voters are going overwhelmingly to the Democrats. The Republicans saw an average of 7.5% decline in their vote percentage vote from 2012 to 2016 in the large counties, averaged by county while the total Republican vote changed very little. I think a linear approximation is fair.
  24. I meant to add that the Republican vote actually dropped 8,868 votes in the 26 largest counties between 2012 and 2016, so the effective growth in those counties went Democrat and Libertarian. I expect most of the one-time Libertarians will vote for Beto, and that 5 to 10% of the Republicans will as well.
  25. In the 26 largest counties with 75% of the voters Republicans won by 332,590 votes in 2012, but the Democrats won by 262,992 votes in 2016. The Libertarian vote increased by 161,147 votes at the same time representing potential swing voters. Statewide the Libertarian vote went up about 195,000. If you look at actual data Democrats have made inroads. In the 228 smaller counties the Republicans won by 929,129 votes in 2012 and 1070171 votes in 2016 a 141,042 improvement. Based on linearly extending the simple 2012 to 2016 trend and assuming a 60% midterm turnout for both parties the Democrats would win the big counties by 559,543 votes. A 60% decrease in smaller county turnout from 2016 would give the Republicans a 642,102 vote advantage there for a net win of 82,559 votes statewide. This is before factoring in what the swing Libertarian vote does, or if there is a blue wave, or that 10% of Republicans have abandoned the party, and many other bad trends for the Republicans. A recent poll put Cruz's support in rural areas at 66%, when the R advantage in the 228 smallest counties was 72.5% in 2012 and 74.6% in 2016. If Cruz only has 66% support in the 228 smallest counties, not all of which is rural by the way, he only wins them by 443,205, once again assuming a 60% turnout by both sides. I am starting to think there is a realistic possibility that Beto will have a 800,000 to a million vote advantage in the 26 biggest counties, and the rural vote will be unable to make up the difference. That comes to a 6 to 10 point win. I am hoping that this will lead the Democrats to victory in the Lt. Governor and Attorney General races, along with flipping 3-5 US congressional seats. It is regrettable that the Democrats failed to run a decent candidate for Governor, because Beto's blue wave might have pulled a good candidate across the line.
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