The district is Wilco and Bell counties with Wilco making up 2/3rds of the vote. Trump won 51.3% in Wilco and 54.7% in Bell. Romney won 59.5% in Wilco and 57.5% in Bell so both are trending away from the Republicans, and based on demographic trends Wilco is going to flip to Democratic in the lead race in this election prior to considering a high Democratic turnout.
To be fair about 2% of those lost Republican votes in 2016 went to Johnson, but I think MJ could pick up those independently minded voters. MJ should also do great with the military and ex-military from both counties who tend to vote Republican.
If the Republicans and Democrats turn out in an equal percentage relative to 2016, which already means the Democrats are turning out better than usual in a mid term, the race could be within 1% either way. In a blue wave I think MJ wins. If Democrats have their usual midterm turnout Carter wins.