RayDog

200k die a year in Texas with about 65% of olds voting and 65% of those for Trump for 84.5K per year or 338K total since 2016. A similar number, or perhaps even more moved out of state.

I noticed that the largest 11 counties went from 8.5 million registered voters in 2016 to just over 10 million in 2020, so that is where most of the 1.8 million new registered voters are located. Those 11 counties went 59/40 for Beto over Cruz. So if there are 11 million votes, for 65% of registered voters, and 60% come from those 11 counties and give Biden a 20 point advantage that is 1,320,000 votes. That is enough to overcome the 800-900K advantage Republicans have in the Rural counties with some extra in case they still lag in the current or former;y Republican leaning counties in between which Beto lost by 300K. I actually expect Biden to do better than 60/40 in those 11 counties and I expect those counties will exceed 60% of the total votes given they have over a million votes already. If those 11 counties top 5 million early and absentee votes, I feel confident that Biden will win.

After 32 months of research and writing I finished my new book Goodbye Quarks: The Onium Theory. In the onium theory I extend the relativistic positronium solution of Feynman and Sternglass to all particles and resonances such that all of them can be shown to be made of only electrons, protons, and their antiparticles. This theory accounts for the decay products, unlike the quark model. And it explains the masses, above and beyond the masses of the component electrons, protons, and neutrons as relativistic mass. I also use basic quantum field theory to examine the structure and properties of electrons and protons to show that they have the same basic structure and should be thought of as two different charge-matter variations of the same basic type of particle. So my claim is that there is only one particle. I started this as a test to see if such a model could be done and the results were even better than I imagined. The precise match of most of the masses makes me confident that the basic theory is correct even though it still needs work in some areas. The Bohr-Sommerfeld solutions on which it is based are acknowledged to be overly simplified, while still frequently within 0.5% of the correct mass. For example rho and omega mesons are made of 4 pion group resonances which is why their masses are approximately equal to the combined masses of two pions and a kaon. Compare that to the irrational formulas used by the quark model for the neutral rho and omega. https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0897JYYLG/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&keywords=ray+fleming+goodbye+quarks&qid=1590625411&sr=8-1 View full article

What other cause of people with dark skin pigmentation having higher fatality rates do you have in mind? The reason for the vitamin D discussion in this situation is largely due to the lack of alternatives. Are you recommending that people whose lifestyle and/or pigmentation limits the amount of vitamin D they produce should not bother to take supplements? If so, I disagree. But I am a no expert on medicine.

Dr. Campbell has a good video on recommended vitamin D levels. He also discusses a Swedish paper that discusses higher risk among their Somalí population which they tie to vitamin D. 6 of the first 15 covid19 deaths in Stockholm were Somali. There was another recent study that showed that people with higher levels of vitamin D above 30 ng/ml had about a 3x less chance of getting a severe form of the disease. And there were no deaths in the >30 ng/ml group. I take 5000 IUs a day and try to eat some liver once a week. I also spend an half hour outside a day now, but even more time outside in normal times.

Sweden is only slightly better than the US and UK. https://www.endcoronavirus.org/countries

Alcohol sales have been banned in much of the Philippines. It serves two purposes with the first being to prevent neighbors from gathering to drink together and in some cases violating curfew. The other is to make sure people spend their limited money on food.

There was another good peak Prosperity video today. He reviews a French hydroxychloroquine study of over 1000 patients where the CFR was 0.75% and all the dead were 75 or older. He also discusses a Spanish study from a single hospital where the death rate was 22% in the HCQ group and 44% in the non HCQgroup. They also found that the entire benefit was among mild cases with it showing no benefit among serious cases. Then he discusses how sars cov2 and ratg13 its closest known match look like they could be man made and he goes over a couple arguments based on their RNA. Of course it could just be a lack of evidence for other natural relatives, but I find it interesting to consider.

It is easy to see where 550k in the UK comes from since that is what you get if you assume 70% infections and a 1% IFR. Now if you guess the IFR will be 0.4% the number is closer to 220 or 230K. The equivalent number for the US assuming 70% infected and 0.4 IFR is ~920K. Without masks and social distancing the question becomes if a vaccine can be administered and take effect before 70% are infected. I have my doubts, particularly since ~40% of the population or more in the US appears to be willing to take a chance with the virus. Dr. John Campbell cited a source I didn't catch that it could take 18 months to make and distribute a vaccine to the entire world after approval, so those delays need to be factored in, especially in poorer countries.

Peak Prosperity had an interesting video again. He discussed that there is a PRRA polybasic furin cleavage site in sars cov2 that was likely responsible for a significant amount of the viruses gain of function. He points out that other researchers, including some of the ones denying it is possible, have inserted similar sequences into viruses. Also that particular sequence is not found in its closest genetic neighbors so there is not an obvious mutation pathway to it. So finding out where the PRRA sequence came from could be key to understanding where the virus came from.

Fuck off you stupid bitch.

I find it interesting that I live in a country where the average IQ is around 85, the average person has a 6th grade education to a 2nd or 3rd grade US level, and the emotional and intellectual maturity of a 14 year old, and yet, they are doing a much better job responding to this pandemic than Republicans.

I have been thinking about how many deaths will there be by the election. At 60k a month we could be pushing 400,000. But this opening might cause a bigger spike that runs from late May into July. That could push it over 500k before November. Any good guesses? Since those deaths will be predominantly Republican I can't help but think it is a bold strategy to kill a half million of your supporters in the run-up to an election. I can't see how this ends well for Republican politicians.

https://www.livescience.com/first-case-coronavirus-found.html Here is one of many links. The earliest officially identified case was from November 17 and had not been to the wet market. Neither had several others. You should really be better informed before calling someone out since this news was everywhere.

The principle suspect for patient zero never went to the wet market and neither did about a third of the earliest known cases, so the wet market could not have been the origin. It was only a significant place where it spread.

About $60 a year not counting viagra. Doctors visit are $10 cash and prescriptions run from $2 to $10. Counting Viagra $300, about $1 a dose.

I have been posting on Philippine DOH posts at the risk of getting deported as I do not support the enhanced quarantine happening here when 10-20 people have been dying each day nationwide. For comparison in 2017 41,000 Filipinos died of cholera and 24,000 died of TB with hardly any action by the government. Because ~85% of Filipinos are under 50 and less than 5% 65 or older the IFR here should be very low. Note that Italy has 5x the number of 65 and older people. I expect the IFR will be less than 0.1% here. At that low a level epidemic response recommendations do not include quarantines. In particular the risk here is that deaths due to malnutrition could easily outnumber deaths do to the disease at that rate. If 30% of the population gets infected this year at a 01% fatality rate that would mean 33,000 deaths due to Covid. But, if the quarantine continues much longer far more people will die of starvation. It may already be too late as the food supply chain has been disrupted. This country is on a path to kill some of its younger population to save some of its elderly. There are many other countries with try pyramidal population demographics and local health issues that are similar to the Philippines. For those countries I feel that it is better to let it run through the younger population and isolate the elderly and others at high risk. Unfortunately I can't be too openly outspoken without risking getting arrested.

It struck me that all the experts writing papers and opinion pieces saying it could not have come from the lab were all involved with the gain of function experiments at the lab. They were also partly funded by the NIH who only ended the project on April 24th of this year. Fauci was a proponent of the experiments and is in CYA mode too. The opinion pieces say their computer models would not have generated this particular spike protein. But they ignore the facts that the spike protein could have been taken from another virus or be due to a mutation that occurred in animals within the lab. There is not enough public information available yet to eliminate the other possibilities. Me: Note that there was a paper from India that claimed that spike proteins and other new pieces of RNA code are found in other viruses. That paper was withdrawn under pressure since they concluded it was manmade, but a natural origin is still possible. Scientists do need to determine the origin of the virus and I feel that the Wuhan virology lab should not be eliminated as a possibility yet.

Peak Prosperity just released a video that talks about the experiments at the Wuhan virology lab.

Actually it is pretty easy to document total deaths with covid versus average deaths without and compute the difference.

Herd immunity looks like it means around 500,000 total deaths at this point. I give it 7 months.

I am still experiencing upper lung pain when I cough that is like bronchitis pain, but without any other bronchitis symptoms anymore. It feels like my upper lungs are messed up and not getting better after a month. I am wondering if it is the damage from a covid infection given how persistent it is. My O2 levels are normal for me as I happened to bring an oximeter with me in January 2018. Note that I had a flu-like illness in January when something swept through the bargirls and expats and I recall some girls saying they thought it came form China. My Ex-gf probably gave it to me. After the initial flu-like symptoms passed I had a dry cough for 5 or 6 weeks and about halfway through that I started experiencing bronchial pain. One of my friends, a former HS football coach from the Dallas area had the same progression but a week or so ahead of me. I have not heard of any case studies that follow this progression but I was wondering if anyone has a similar experience. Unfortunately, while antibody tests are available here now the plan of action is to put anyone who tests positive into a group quarantine with a bunch of sick Filipinos. So fuck that.

My friend was supposed to be in her village for their annual festival last weekend. Someone posted a picture of 5 happy looking young pigs there who escaped being turned into lechon. This is festival season in all the province villages so it has been repeated numerous times.

I noticed this morning that all the street dogs are gone now. Most do have owners, but they have them live on the street. I noticed this morning that some trash my friend put out last night with chicken bones was unmolested instead of the mess we would have seen even last week. We would normally see a dozen or so dogs during our morning shopping walk, but there were none. I mentioned it to my friend and she asked what I thought happened to them. She did not like my answer. I have assumed a lot of pets did not make it through the lockdowns in China. Very sad.

I have wondered if there might be some immunity in the Philippines, Indonesia and nearby countries where the disease has not caused the expected number of deaths. Lack of testing is certainly a big reason why the number of cases is low. I wonder if other coronaviruses have circulated in this part of the world perhaps related to eating bats.