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RayDog
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Everything posted by RayDog
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I was wondering last night if Beto could get George W's endorsement.
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Since the NRA spent 46 million it did not have in 2016 with 50 million in donations to political campaigns it seems likely to me that they spent their Russian donations on political campaigns. But, the FBI would need to have detailed account information or a confession of an insider to prove it.
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Sd19 tells us a lot since 3.45% more people voted Democrat then last time when a long time incumbent ran. So it is not just an almost 7% difference, but 9 or 10% if you factor in incumbency. We can compare that with Trump's 9% victory in Texas. Then we can consider that Johnson got just over 2% more of the vote in 2016 than 2012, so 2% of independent voters are also in play. If sd19 is repeated statewide we are definitely in toss-up territory. And usually Democrats don't show up at special elections or midterms, so sd19 tells us that we cannot go by normal midterm turnout percentages. Since almost 9 million voters voted in 2016 we should expect close to 6 million to vote in 2018. The more the better for Democrats.
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The new PPP pole has Cruz up 46 to 42 but after voters are told Beto does not take PAC money it flips to Beto leading 46 to 43.
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Actually Cruz's approval rating is substantially higher. Republicans lost 7.5% of their vote in the 11 largest counties representing 50% of Texas voters from 2012 to 2016 and 3.5% in the next 15 counties representing 25% of the vote. If that rate of change is equaled from 2016 to 2020 Texas will be a lean Democratic state. In 2018 it is a tossup.
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I can't help but think that Trump handles his finances the same way only on a bigger scale.
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I am hoping one of the Castro brothers takes on Cornyn.
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Approximately a million new Latino voters registered in 2016 because of Trump's racism, but they did not show up. There are plenty of Latinos registered to swing the election. Part of Beto's problem though is what happened in the primary. Latinos who do not know the candidates will vote for the one with the Latino surname. For that reason Beto does not need random Latino voters. He needs educated ones.
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The Kochs are too old to have a long game.
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Why do you hate educating people?
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And now Trump can add jury tampering to his list of tweet crimes.
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An incumbent at less than 40% is anything but solid. And by the way, a previous poll had the other races closer.
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What do you mean? Example, Medicare for all has polled at over 60%. You are not center-right.
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I think your point of confusion comes from the fact that Bernie's policies are not far left policies anymore. They are mainstream policies supported by the majority.
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We are talking about the bank partly owned by Wilbur Ross, Oleg Daripaska, and Viktor Vekselberg. It will show up many times in Mueller's final report.
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Many Democrats have warmed to Bernie's policy positions which is why many of them poll at 60/40 or better among the general public and higher among Democrats. His 44% from 2016 has grown. He will enter the 2018 with well over 50% support among Democrats and it will grow from there.
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The difference in the percentage of undecided voters is very large between the two polls. There must be a significant difference in methodology. It also makes me think that respondents to the Quinnipiac poll might still change their minds. Of course, given the error, they are not really different with respect to the percentage difference.
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Wat? The Republican party deserves to have Trump as irs leader for another 6 years.
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I am hopeful that Trump keeps up his tweet storm through the 2022 midterms and perhaps tries to run in 2024. That is assuming he gets pardoned.
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Where else would you fit in a meeting between Lubbock and Amarillo?
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One of the pundits on cable yesterday pointed out that at the Trump tower meeting the topics of discussion included Russians helping with the election, such as by supplying the stolen emails, and in exchange they wanted the sanctions dropped. The adoption cover story tells us that sanctions were part of the discussion. He claims that this exchange or quid pro quo is bribery. Bribery carries a 15 year sentence and is of course specifically mentioned as an impeachable offense. It may be easier or perhaps just as easy to prove bribery as conspiracy.
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Yes, 190,000 voted for Hillary so perhaps 120,000 will show up in a midterm out of the nearly 3 million votes Beto needs to win.
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If his Russian investors asked for all their money back his net worth would be in negative hundreds of millions. I am convinced that to the extent he self-funded parts of his campaign he was using illegally laundered Russian money.
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50% of Texas voters are in 11 counties. The next 15 largest counties have 25%. The easiest Latino voters to reach are the ones in the large counties. There are obvious ones like Bexar and El Paso, but other large counties also have sizable Latino populations. While they are important you can't win a state election with just the small percentage of voters in the valley.
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That is a presidential campaign ad.
