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RayDog

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Everything posted by RayDog

  1. I don't get why Cruz and Trump are getting a pass on CA, when it is conspiring with foreigners using stolen facebook data to defraud an election.
  2. Maddow had on a writer with the Buffalo paper who was on this story for over a year and he said that the company put out a positive press release on the US drug trials a couple days earlier in order to boost the stock price before the insiders unloaded the stock. He characterized it as a "pump and dump" scheme.
  3. Cruz's tweet is stupid since Beto will be in the Senate not the House and is already on record saying he would not vote for Pelosi.
  4. The district is Wilco and Bell counties with Wilco making up 2/3rds of the vote. Trump won 51.3% in Wilco and 54.7% in Bell. Romney won 59.5% in Wilco and 57.5% in Bell so both are trending away from the Republicans, and based on demographic trends Wilco is going to flip to Democratic in the lead race in this election prior to considering a high Democratic turnout. To be fair about 2% of those lost Republican votes in 2016 went to Johnson, but I think MJ could pick up those independently minded voters. MJ should also do great with the military and ex-military from both counties who tend to vote Republican. If the Republicans and Democrats turn out in an equal percentage relative to 2016, which already means the Democrats are turning out better than usual in a mid term, the race could be within 1% either way. In a blue wave I think MJ wins. If Democrats have their usual midterm turnout Carter wins.
  5. Cenk has just rebranded the race Beto Vs. Beta, after Cruz begs for Trump's help. Whatever you may think of TYT this is a fun video. https://youtu.be/6R8QcgxMD8E
  6. I am too busy doing nothing but it would be funny if someone recycled all the stuff about Cruz on social media.
  7. My recollection, which could be faulty, is that Cruz won 40% of the Latino vote in 2012. That was, however, before the wall bullshit. Random GOTV efforts among Latinos may not be that helpful without those voters being educated on the candidates.
  8. When has Cruz not been offensive?
  9. It still looks like Beto will be the first Senate candidate to raise $40 million from individual donations.
  10. I was wondering last night if Beto could get George W's endorsement.
  11. Since the NRA spent 46 million it did not have in 2016 with 50 million in donations to political campaigns it seems likely to me that they spent their Russian donations on political campaigns. But, the FBI would need to have detailed account information or a confession of an insider to prove it.
  12. Sd19 tells us a lot since 3.45% more people voted Democrat then last time when a long time incumbent ran. So it is not just an almost 7% difference, but 9 or 10% if you factor in incumbency. We can compare that with Trump's 9% victory in Texas. Then we can consider that Johnson got just over 2% more of the vote in 2016 than 2012, so 2% of independent voters are also in play. If sd19 is repeated statewide we are definitely in toss-up territory. And usually Democrats don't show up at special elections or midterms, so sd19 tells us that we cannot go by normal midterm turnout percentages. Since almost 9 million voters voted in 2016 we should expect close to 6 million to vote in 2018. The more the better for Democrats.
  13. The new PPP pole has Cruz up 46 to 42 but after voters are told Beto does not take PAC money it flips to Beto leading 46 to 43.
  14. Actually Cruz's approval rating is substantially higher. Republicans lost 7.5% of their vote in the 11 largest counties representing 50% of Texas voters from 2012 to 2016 and 3.5% in the next 15 counties representing 25% of the vote. If that rate of change is equaled from 2016 to 2020 Texas will be a lean Democratic state. In 2018 it is a tossup.
  15. I can't help but think that Trump handles his finances the same way only on a bigger scale.
  16. I am hoping one of the Castro brothers takes on Cornyn.
  17. Approximately a million new Latino voters registered in 2016 because of Trump's racism, but they did not show up. There are plenty of Latinos registered to swing the election. Part of Beto's problem though is what happened in the primary. Latinos who do not know the candidates will vote for the one with the Latino surname. For that reason Beto does not need random Latino voters. He needs educated ones.
  18. The Kochs are too old to have a long game.
  19. Why do you hate educating people?
  20. And now Trump can add jury tampering to his list of tweet crimes.
  21. An incumbent at less than 40% is anything but solid. And by the way, a previous poll had the other races closer.
  22. What do you mean? Example, Medicare for all has polled at over 60%. You are not center-right.
  23. I think your point of confusion comes from the fact that Bernie's policies are not far left policies anymore. They are mainstream policies supported by the majority.
  24. We are talking about the bank partly owned by Wilbur Ross, Oleg Daripaska, and Viktor Vekselberg. It will show up many times in Mueller's final report.
  25. Many Democrats have warmed to Bernie's policy positions which is why many of them poll at 60/40 or better among the general public and higher among Democrats. His 44% from 2016 has grown. He will enter the 2018 with well over 50% support among Democrats and it will grow from there.
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