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RayDog

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Everything posted by RayDog

  1. The difference in the percentage of undecided voters is very large between the two polls. There must be a significant difference in methodology. It also makes me think that respondents to the Quinnipiac poll might still change their minds. Of course, given the error, they are not really different with respect to the percentage difference.
  2. Wat? The Republican party deserves to have Trump as irs leader for another 6 years.
  3. I am hopeful that Trump keeps up his tweet storm through the 2022 midterms and perhaps tries to run in 2024. That is assuming he gets pardoned.
  4. Where else would you fit in a meeting between Lubbock and Amarillo?
  5. One of the pundits on cable yesterday pointed out that at the Trump tower meeting the topics of discussion included Russians helping with the election, such as by supplying the stolen emails, and in exchange they wanted the sanctions dropped. The adoption cover story tells us that sanctions were part of the discussion. He claims that this exchange or quid pro quo is bribery. Bribery carries a 15 year sentence and is of course specifically mentioned as an impeachable offense. It may be easier or perhaps just as easy to prove bribery as conspiracy.
  6. Yes, 190,000 voted for Hillary so perhaps 120,000 will show up in a midterm out of the nearly 3 million votes Beto needs to win.
  7. If his Russian investors asked for all their money back his net worth would be in negative hundreds of millions. I am convinced that to the extent he self-funded parts of his campaign he was using illegally laundered Russian money.
  8. 50% of Texas voters are in 11 counties. The next 15 largest counties have 25%. The easiest Latino voters to reach are the ones in the large counties. There are obvious ones like Bexar and El Paso, but other large counties also have sizable Latino populations. While they are important you can't win a state election with just the small percentage of voters in the valley.
  9. That is a presidential campaign ad.
  10. As an expat I don't think I should have to pay taxes in a country where I do not reside.
  11. Duterte could still deport me for that. But he is doing such a wonderful job that I have no reason to criticize him.
  12. You can also factor in that the silent generation was 23% of all voters nationwide in 2014 but is projected to be 8% in 2026. As I have said before Texas Republican voters are dying off at a rate of net loss of 50,000+ a year, which adds up. Texas has a net migration with other states of 150,000 per year with over 250,000 coming and over 100,000 leaving. This also dilutes the Republican base a little each year. Independent voters swinging toward Democrats will be big in 2018 and 2020.
  13. In other words, I am debating with a stupid troll. I know.
  14. It is not an occupied part of Italy. (Actually it is not an occupied part of any country.) Foreign graffiti artists should be deported by any country, unless they have approval for their project.
  15. I see no problem with their deportation. I live in a country where if I said something bad about the president or engaged in political protest I could be deported or worse. Don't break the law when you are visiting a foreign country
  16. I think the differences between the actual platforms of centrists and progressives are much smaller than people pretend. Even progressive platform items are polling 60/40 like most issues that break on party lines. If Bernie runs Warren will be out of the running after New Hampshire.
  17. I clicked on a Bannon interview with Hannity on youtube as his main point is that the midterm is a referendum on Trump in his mind. But what I found interesting is he was begging Trump supporters yo vote for Rinos rather than abstain from voting. He seemed fearful about how many seats the Republicans could lose. PEW is reporting that the percentage of Republicans has fallen from 29% to 26%.
  18. Religions count on billions of people to be like that as do most politicians, but Republicans especially.
  19. Here is Stedman's story he was forced to delete. Credit to the Reddit poster who saved It. "Second Playboy model alleges an affair with Trump, received payment from AMI A former Playboy model who claims she had an affair with Donald Trump before he ran for President received a payment from National Enquirer’s parent company, AMI, in yet another example of a “catch-and-kill” story involving President Trump. This is the second Playboy model who has come forward with an allegation of an affair with Trump. Karen McDougal claims she had a relationship with Trump in 2006 and 2007. AMI paid Ms. McDougal $150,000 for the exclusive rights for her story, but never published it. A source with an intimate understanding of the payment says that the unnamed model received $185,000 for the rights to her story from an AMI lawyer. The original contract was for $250k, the source said, but AMI took approximately 26% of that number because they negotiated the deal. The payment, which has not previously been reported, was made in two payments in 2014 over a period of 6 months, as Trump was deliberating a run for office. The model declined all requests for comment, except to say that she did not want her name attached to this story. Audio of Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen discussing this payment was among the tapes seized by federal investigators who raided Cohen’s office, home, and hotel in April. It wasn’t immediately known with whom Cohen was discussing the payment. The AMI lawyer who made the payment to the model in 2014 was not identified. A source told me, “There are many ‘fixers’. They are all related to one another, but work in separate states.” The payment has garnered interest not only from New York investigators but also from Special Counsel Robert Mueller. Among the possible avenues that Mueller will explore is whether Trump had decided to run for President in 2014 when this payment was made. The new expanded timeline is evidence that Trump had decided to run for office in 2014, months after he visited Moscow for the Miss Universe pageant. According to a source familiar with the contact between Mueller’s office and the former Playboy model, there is an expectation that the model will soon be brought in by the Special Counsel for an interview. The identity of the model is expected to be announced in the coming days. A spokesman for the Special Counsel’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Note: This is the first article I have written that relies entirely on unnamed sources. I wouldn’t have done this if it wasn’t completely necessary. I firmly stand by the accuracy of the story. This article will be updated as more information is learned."
  20. Russia invested heavily in social media in support of Germany's anti-fracking movement so Germany would not access whatever natural gas they might have been able to get from their many shale deposits. The German's fell for the Russian disinformation and banned fracking.
  21. I keep thinking about what a great idea it was for McConnell to only give Cruz one week off while Beto has 5 weeks to campaign during the August recess.
  22. That should give Democrats another 10 seats or so.
  23. None of what you said matters. Both DC and PR have completed the necessary steps to request statehood. They are merely waiting for a receptive Congress and president.
  24. They voted to be a state and a couple weeks ago the governor asked Trump for them to become a state. It is assumed he said no even though statehood is supported in the Republican party platform. They (and DC) will become a state when the Democrats are in charge which will likely be the first part pf 2021.
  25. These were among the states that swung toward Trump as opposed to Romney more strongly than average (listed below with the R-D percentage difference between 2016 and 2012), and I think we are seeing the pendulum swing back even harder. In some cases, using the 2016 results as the standard of what to expect in 2018 could be way off as perhaps 2012 is more reflective of a state's true voter base. Not only are there a lot of rust belt states on this list, there are a number of key senate races that will be determined by how severely the electorate swings back toward the 2012 ratios. New Hampshire 5.2% New York 5.5 Alabama 5.8 Tennessee 5.8 Minnesota 6.1 Pennsylvania 6.1 Mississippi 6.3 Wyoming 6.8 Montana 6.9 Delaware 7.1 Kentucky 7.1 Vermont 7.1 Wisconsin 7.7 Indiana 9.1 Missouri 9.3 Michigan 9.7 Hawaii 10.5 Ohio 11.1 Rhode Island 11.7 South Dakota 11.8 Maine 12.3 Iowa 15.3 West Virginia 15.4 North Dakota 16.8
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