RayDog

But after Watergate.

Denton county voted 64.9% for Romney and 57.1% for Trump. If that percentage holds it would vote 49% Republican in 2020. So with a Democratic wave the county as a whole could go for a Democratic presidential candidate in 2020. TX26 would still lean Republican in 2018 in ordinary circumstances, but things aren't ordinary.

I think Abrams has a decent chance of beating Kemp. The last poll only had Kemp at a 2 point advantage, but it is likely that Abrams base is being undercounted.

Where is the AOC thread?

Beto has done at least 5 town halls in Lubbock and pulls 1000+, and he has a campaign office there. It is the first time a senate candidate has had a campaign office in Lubbock in recent history. He will be well organized there. Healthcare is at or near the top of Texans concerns pretty much everywhere.

I think the Democrats will end up with 52 or 53. NV, AZ, and TN look like they will flip. The close races with Democratic incumbents IN, ND, FL, and MO could all win based on the current levels if voter enthusiasm. I also think Beto wins Texas. It seems that few people actually looked at the decline in Republican votes by county from 2012 to 2016, with Republican's percentage dropping 7.5% on average in the 11 largest counties with 50% of the voters, and 3.5% in the next 15 largest counties with another 25% of the voters. If you extrapolate that rate of change 2 years Texas is a +/- 2% toss up before factoring in a blue wave.

The leading ks3 Democrat is polling 7 points ahead of Yoder. Most of the Republican tossups or leans might be better put in the Democratic lean category once you look at the race in detail. All the websites have been slow to adjust.

Dersh has lost his mind. You only set up an llc to funnel money if you are trying to hide something, perhaps something illegal.

I heard "I'll pay cash."

A lot of undocumented immigrants do file tax returns using fake SSNs, although I do not know the percentage. They file because they want to pay their fair share. They also file because it is the best documentation that they lived and worked here and it can be important whenever an amnesty program is passed based on years of residence. A friend who used to work for the IRS told me he has seen the same SSN used 12 times or more. They just add a dash and a number to it.

TYT has a video about this on youtube for anyone interested. Kansas 2 and 3 are toss-ups or lean Republican. KS3 (Yoder) was won by Clinton.

There is a fake lineage to Mary Bolling and Pocahontas out there for my family.

I expect Trump will lose the 2020 election but keep control of the Republican party for a run in 2024 while continuing to tweet every day.

The US total fertility rate is hovering around 1.85 with Canada and many parts of the US Midwest and Northeast at 1.60. The US needs sustained immigration in order to fuel economic growth. This is made more time critical due to the large numbers of boomers retiring each month. But we not only need engineers, doctors, technology workers, nurses and scientists, we need crop pickers, construction workers, housekeepers and other trade and unskilled labor. As the history of the past few decades shows, the US economy can absorb many more new foreign workers than are coming into the country today. The administrations policies of restricting undocumented and to a lessor extent documented immigrants will lead to an economic disaster, and in combination with poor trade policies, make the coming recession far worse than it needs to be. We certainly do need immigration reform and a strong guest worker program for trade and unskilled labor and I hope the democrats can pass something in 2021.. We also need to stop violating international law with regard to asylum seekers, in all the many ways this administration is violating those laws..

If we look at the 4 largest counties in the Austin media market they swung strongly toward the Democrats in 2016. The total Austin media market reaches 500,000+ Democratic voters in a presidential year, and somewhat less in a midterm, maybe 300,000 to 350,000. Most importantly they represent a region of the state that could swing even more strongly to the Democratic side in 2018. I made a conservative estimate of the percentage that will vote for Beto in each county, but it could be several percentage points better in his favor. Beto needs to build on the voter enthusiasm of his base. Travis County (5) 75% D. +9.1% 2012-2016 Williamson County (11) 50% D. +8.1% 2012-2016 Bell (17) 47% +2.8% 2012-2018 Hays County (22) 53% D. +6.8% 2012-2016

So you think he refused Bannon's calls too? https://www.nationalreview.com/2016/08/trump-campaigns-data-firm-partner-cambridge-analytica-worked-cruz/

So you believe Cruz, that Mercer spent $12 million dollars on Cruz's behalf to pay Brits and Canadians to interfere in our election and Cruz new nothing about the details? I don't.

Cruz was in the middle of that too.

https://www.trumpisnotabovethelaw.org/event/mueller-firing-rapid-response/search/ I was reviewing the history of Ceausescu to remind myself how that went down. An unpopular leader can experience something similar. Last I checked Public Citizen has over 350,000 people signed up to protest within 5 hours of Trump crossing a line like firing Mueller. With that start they could have millions on the street within a day. Of course the plan is to be peaceful, but...

As an expat I tend to use the UK definition.

75% of the Texas vote is in the 26 largest counties, so a small change in the rural vote helps in only a small way. Cruz really has no upside among rural voters, so any change will be to Beto's benefit. Here is a list of those counties showing the number of Republican votes in 2016 and 2012, the Republican percentage of the total vote in 2016 and 2012, and the percentage lost by the Republicans (except for Jefferson Co.) (and gained by the non-republican candidates). I also make some rough predictions for 2018. GUADALUPE 36,632 33,117 63.4 66.9 -3.5 COMAL 45,136 39,318 72.6 76.3 -3.7 ELLIS 44,941 39,574 70.6 73.1 -2.5 BRAZOS 38,738 37,209 57.6 66.5 -8.9 HAYS 33,826 31,661 46.9 53.7 -6.8 MCLENNAN 48,260 47,903 61.0 64.3 -3.2 SMITH 58,930 57,331 69.5 72.0 -2.5 JEFFERSON 42,862 43,242 48.9 48.8 0.1 CAMERON 29,472 26,099 32.0 33.9 -1.9 BELL 51,998 49,574 54.7 57.5 -2.8 LUBBOCK 65,651 63,469 66.3 69.6 -3.3 NUECES 50,766 48,966 48.6 51.0 -2.3 BRAZORIA 72,791 70,862 60.1 66.4 -6.3 GALVESTON 73,757 69,059 60.0 62.7 -2.7 HIDALGO 48,642 39,865 28.0 28.6 -0.6 WILLIAMSON 104,175 97,006 51.3 59.4 -8.1 MONTGOMERY 150,314 137,969 73.5 79.7 -6.2 EL PASO 55,512 57,150 25.9 33.1 -7.2 FORT BEND 117,291 116,126 44.8 52.9 -8.2 DENTON 170,603 157,579 57.1 64.9 -7.8 COLLIN 201,014 196,888 55.6 65.0 -9.4 TRAVIS 127,209 140,152 27.1 36.2 -9.1 BEXAR 240,333 241,617 40.8 47.0 -6.3 TARRANT 345,921 348,920 51.7 57.1 -5.4 DALLAS 262,945 295,813 34.6 41.7 -7.0 HARRIS 545,955 586,073 41.6 49.3 -7.7 2018 Senate Race Beto (>60%) - Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Travis, El Paso, Hidalgo, Cameron Beto (53-60%) - Fort Bend, Nueces, Jefferson, Hays Beto (50-53% - Tarrant, Williamson (Flipped to Democrats) Cruz (50-53%) - Collin, Denton, Bell (Will Flip in 2020) Cruz (53-60%) - Galveston, Brazoria, Mclennan, Brazos, Guadalupe Cruz (>60%) - Montgomery, Lubbock, Smith, Ellis, Comal

I meant that Beto needs a swing of 10% of the rural vote. Trump only won by 9%, and Beto should do well enough in non-rural areas to make it close.

Beto's 254 county swing was brilliant as he only needs to get 10% more of the rural vote than Trump did. Trump's tariffs alone may give Beto that much.

God's are both known fiction and logical impossibilities. No additional proof is required.

Mitt is wrong. It's Trump.