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RayDog

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Everything posted by RayDog

  1. My favorite part of the interview was when Cuomo pointed out that "Cohen's" statement meant that Jr was guilty of perjury and Giuliani slammed his fist on the table. I think that was the moment Giuliani realized his plan for a fake leak and character assasiation of Cohen threw Jr under the bus.
  2. Since all his money apparently comes from laundered Russian sources it is more properly Putin's money. Trump is just pretending it is his.
  3. In case you missed it Giuliani's weak minded plot to discredit Cohen as a liar started by leaking that Jr. committed perjury in his Senate testimony.
  4. Trump authorized a meeting with Russians to receive emails stolen from the Democrats for the purpose of working with the Russians on their common goal of helping Trump win the election. One word to describe that is conspiracy. Another is treason if one considers cyber attacks an act of war.
  5. It will be fun watching Cruz try to justify kissing Putin's ass, giving tax cuts to the very rich, tariffs and wanting to destroy Nafta, and last by not least imprisoning children after stealing them from their parents.
  6. I Just read the bios and it looks like a republican swamp creature versus an ex-army guy who wants to serve his country in a new way. The district is so gerrymandered it is impossible to project without precinct level data. It would take a huge DEmocratic turnout in the Travis and Bexar parts of the district, and suppressed voting in the rural parts for it to go Democratic.
  7. Except the demographic shifts are not stopping, and any short term changes are not likely to be good for the Republicans. They were 13-1 and now they aren't. Nationwide there was a 4.3% shift in votes to Republicans from 2012 to 2016 so if the Democrats had a better candidate the Republican vote percentage might have dropped 12.1% instead of 7.8% in Denton county.
  8. Of course i meant a living JFK against a Nixon exposed for his true nature.
  9. Yes, we absolutely should get all the house members owned by Russia on the record.
  10. But after Watergate.
  11. Denton county voted 64.9% for Romney and 57.1% for Trump. If that percentage holds it would vote 49% Republican in 2020. So with a Democratic wave the county as a whole could go for a Democratic presidential candidate in 2020. TX26 would still lean Republican in 2018 in ordinary circumstances, but things aren't ordinary.
  12. I think Abrams has a decent chance of beating Kemp. The last poll only had Kemp at a 2 point advantage, but it is likely that Abrams base is being undercounted.
  13. Where is the AOC thread?
  14. Beto has done at least 5 town halls in Lubbock and pulls 1000+, and he has a campaign office there. It is the first time a senate candidate has had a campaign office in Lubbock in recent history. He will be well organized there. Healthcare is at or near the top of Texans concerns pretty much everywhere.
  15. I think the Democrats will end up with 52 or 53. NV, AZ, and TN look like they will flip. The close races with Democratic incumbents IN, ND, FL, and MO could all win based on the current levels if voter enthusiasm. I also think Beto wins Texas. It seems that few people actually looked at the decline in Republican votes by county from 2012 to 2016, with Republican's percentage dropping 7.5% on average in the 11 largest counties with 50% of the voters, and 3.5% in the next 15 largest counties with another 25% of the voters. If you extrapolate that rate of change 2 years Texas is a +/- 2% toss up before factoring in a blue wave.
  16. The leading ks3 Democrat is polling 7 points ahead of Yoder. Most of the Republican tossups or leans might be better put in the Democratic lean category once you look at the race in detail. All the websites have been slow to adjust.
  17. Dersh has lost his mind. You only set up an llc to funnel money if you are trying to hide something, perhaps something illegal.
  18. I heard "I'll pay cash."
  19. A lot of undocumented immigrants do file tax returns using fake SSNs, although I do not know the percentage. They file because they want to pay their fair share. They also file because it is the best documentation that they lived and worked here and it can be important whenever an amnesty program is passed based on years of residence. A friend who used to work for the IRS told me he has seen the same SSN used 12 times or more. They just add a dash and a number to it.
  20. TYT has a video about this on youtube for anyone interested. Kansas 2 and 3 are toss-ups or lean Republican. KS3 (Yoder) was won by Clinton.
  21. There is a fake lineage to Mary Bolling and Pocahontas out there for my family.
  22. I expect Trump will lose the 2020 election but keep control of the Republican party for a run in 2024 while continuing to tweet every day.
  23. The US total fertility rate is hovering around 1.85 with Canada and many parts of the US Midwest and Northeast at 1.60. The US needs sustained immigration in order to fuel economic growth. This is made more time critical due to the large numbers of boomers retiring each month. But we not only need engineers, doctors, technology workers, nurses and scientists, we need crop pickers, construction workers, housekeepers and other trade and unskilled labor. As the history of the past few decades shows, the US economy can absorb many more new foreign workers than are coming into the country today. The administrations policies of restricting undocumented and to a lessor extent documented immigrants will lead to an economic disaster, and in combination with poor trade policies, make the coming recession far worse than it needs to be. We certainly do need immigration reform and a strong guest worker program for trade and unskilled labor and I hope the democrats can pass something in 2021.. We also need to stop violating international law with regard to asylum seekers, in all the many ways this administration is violating those laws..
  24. If we look at the 4 largest counties in the Austin media market they swung strongly toward the Democrats in 2016. The total Austin media market reaches 500,000+ Democratic voters in a presidential year, and somewhat less in a midterm, maybe 300,000 to 350,000. Most importantly they represent a region of the state that could swing even more strongly to the Democratic side in 2018. I made a conservative estimate of the percentage that will vote for Beto in each county, but it could be several percentage points better in his favor. Beto needs to build on the voter enthusiasm of his base. Travis County (5) 75% D. +9.1% 2012-2016 Williamson County (11) 50% D. +8.1% 2012-2016 Bell (17) 47% +2.8% 2012-2018 Hays County (22) 53% D. +6.8% 2012-2016
  25. So you think he refused Bannon's calls too? https://www.nationalreview.com/2016/08/trump-campaigns-data-firm-partner-cambridge-analytica-worked-cruz/
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