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RayDog

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Everything posted by RayDog

  1. So you believe Cruz, that Mercer spent $12 million dollars on Cruz's behalf to pay Brits and Canadians to interfere in our election and Cruz new nothing about the details? I don't.
  2. Cruz was in the middle of that too.
  3. https://www.trumpisnotabovethelaw.org/event/mueller-firing-rapid-response/search/ I was reviewing the history of Ceausescu to remind myself how that went down. An unpopular leader can experience something similar. Last I checked Public Citizen has over 350,000 people signed up to protest within 5 hours of Trump crossing a line like firing Mueller. With that start they could have millions on the street within a day. Of course the plan is to be peaceful, but...
  4. As an expat I tend to use the UK definition.
  5. 75% of the Texas vote is in the 26 largest counties, so a small change in the rural vote helps in only a small way. Cruz really has no upside among rural voters, so any change will be to Beto's benefit. Here is a list of those counties showing the number of Republican votes in 2016 and 2012, the Republican percentage of the total vote in 2016 and 2012, and the percentage lost by the Republicans (except for Jefferson Co.) (and gained by the non-republican candidates). I also make some rough predictions for 2018. GUADALUPE 36,632 33,117 63.4 66.9 -3.5 COMAL 45,136 39,318 72.6 76.3 -3.7 ELLIS 44,941 39,574 70.6 73.1 -2.5 BRAZOS 38,738 37,209 57.6 66.5 -8.9 HAYS 33,826 31,661 46.9 53.7 -6.8 MCLENNAN 48,260 47,903 61.0 64.3 -3.2 SMITH 58,930 57,331 69.5 72.0 -2.5 JEFFERSON 42,862 43,242 48.9 48.8 0.1 CAMERON 29,472 26,099 32.0 33.9 -1.9 BELL 51,998 49,574 54.7 57.5 -2.8 LUBBOCK 65,651 63,469 66.3 69.6 -3.3 NUECES 50,766 48,966 48.6 51.0 -2.3 BRAZORIA 72,791 70,862 60.1 66.4 -6.3 GALVESTON 73,757 69,059 60.0 62.7 -2.7 HIDALGO 48,642 39,865 28.0 28.6 -0.6 WILLIAMSON 104,175 97,006 51.3 59.4 -8.1 MONTGOMERY 150,314 137,969 73.5 79.7 -6.2 EL PASO 55,512 57,150 25.9 33.1 -7.2 FORT BEND 117,291 116,126 44.8 52.9 -8.2 DENTON 170,603 157,579 57.1 64.9 -7.8 COLLIN 201,014 196,888 55.6 65.0 -9.4 TRAVIS 127,209 140,152 27.1 36.2 -9.1 BEXAR 240,333 241,617 40.8 47.0 -6.3 TARRANT 345,921 348,920 51.7 57.1 -5.4 DALLAS 262,945 295,813 34.6 41.7 -7.0 HARRIS 545,955 586,073 41.6 49.3 -7.7 2018 Senate Race Beto (>60%) - Harris, Dallas, Bexar, Travis, El Paso, Hidalgo, Cameron Beto (53-60%) - Fort Bend, Nueces, Jefferson, Hays Beto (50-53% - Tarrant, Williamson (Flipped to Democrats) Cruz (50-53%) - Collin, Denton, Bell (Will Flip in 2020) Cruz (53-60%) - Galveston, Brazoria, Mclennan, Brazos, Guadalupe Cruz (>60%) - Montgomery, Lubbock, Smith, Ellis, Comal
  6. I meant that Beto needs a swing of 10% of the rural vote. Trump only won by 9%, and Beto should do well enough in non-rural areas to make it close.
  7. Beto's 254 county swing was brilliant as he only needs to get 10% more of the rural vote than Trump did. Trump's tariffs alone may give Beto that much.
  8. God's are both known fiction and logical impossibilities. No additional proof is required.
  9. Mitt is wrong. It's Trump.
  10. There are two ways to prove that something does not exist prior to proceeding to the step of looking at observations and evidence. 1. The thing is known to be fictional 2. The thing is a logical impossibility. Non-physical objects fail both tests.
  11. So you are saying non-physical objects are supernatural disregarding that there is no such thing as a non-physical object.
  12. Not being my field I was curious which states are going to be most impacted by tariffs on soybeans, corn, sorghum, pork and beef so I looked up the top 10 producing states of each. I highlighted the ones in the top three. There aren't many surprises, but it is big chunk of the country to piss off. I wonder how this strategy will work for the Rebublicans. Illinois - Soybean(1), Corn(2), Sorghum, Pork Iowa - Soybean(2), Corn(1), Pork(1), Beef Texas - Beef (1), Sorghum (2) Minnesota - Soybean(3), Corn, Pork(3) Missouri - Soybean, Corn, Sorghum, Pork, Beef(3) Kansas - Corn, Sorghum(1), Pork, Beef Nebraska - Corn(3), Sorghum, Pork, Beef South Dakota - Soybean, Corn, Sorghum, Beef Oklahoma - Sorghum, Pork, Beef(2) North Carolina - Pork(2) Colorado - Sorghum(3) Ohio - Soybean, Corn, Pork Colorado - Sorghum(3) North Dakota - Soybean, Beef Indiana - Soybean, Corn, Arkansas - Soybean Wisconsin - Corn New Mexico - Sorghum Louisiana - Sorghum Montana - Beef Kentucky - Beef
  13. These were check sources with tiny amounts of radioactivity used to response check radiation detectors. The cesium ones are very common and anybody could buy one. The plutonium ones are less common but not unusual at universities. They are about as dangerous as a smoke detector.
  14. I was expecting more from Kasich. He had a chance to come off as being far more presidential than Trump and instead sounded like someone who is still hedging his bets.
  15. I still imagine that Trump had the idea in his pea brain that he would get a positive bump in his approval rating from the Putin summit that would help the Republicans at midterms. Oops. I can't imagine his approval rating staying above 40% in coming weeks.
  16. Numbers arise within a physical brain. They are not supernatural.
  17. So instead we have tyranny by the common clay of the new west.
  18. Rather than abandoning the electoral college I think we could see large states splitting in the way California is considering.
  19. I took a stab at looking at the demographics for about 10 years out which assumes states with substantial growth like AZ, GA, TX, and NC continuing to swing toward likely democratic. I also estimated the electoral college changes for 2024 assuming DC and PR get added as states in 2021 as I expect they will. It is important to note that the Democrats still have a solid base of small states, so I don't see an angry old white man backlash taking the senate once DC and PR are states. I left some states in play as toss-ups, but that depends a lot on what the Republicans do to capture those states as I could see several of them being leaning or likely Democratic. Smaller Democratic States (11 states with 56 electoral votes) DC = 3 DE = 3 VT = 3 HI = 3 RI = 4 (-1) 3 NM = 5 NV = 6 PR = 6 CT = 7 OR = 7 MD = 10 Larger (>10 electoral votes) Democratic States (11 states with 233 electoral votes) CA = 55 (-1) 54 TX = 38 (+2) 40 NY = 29 (-1) 28 IL = 20 (-2) 18 GA = 16 NC = 15 (+1) 16 NJ = 14 VA = 13 WA = 12 MA = 11 AZ = 11 Tossup (10 states with 125 electoral votes) FL = 29 (+2) 31 PA = 20 (-1) 19 OH = 18 (-1) 17 MI = 16 (-1) 15 WI = 10 CO = 9 (+1) 10 MN = 10 (-1) 9 IA = 6 NH = 4 ME = 4 Republican (20 states with 124 electoral votes) IN = 11 TN = 11 MO = 10 SC = 9 AL = 9 (-1) 8 KY = 8 LA = 8 OK = 7 UT = 6 KS = 6 AR = 6 MS = 6 NE = 5 WV = 5 (-1) 4 ID = 4 MT = 3 ND = 3 SD = 3 WY = 3 AK = 3
  20. Am I the only one that thinks that if you saw Kavanaugh in Texas you would guess he is an aggy and if he was in a defendants chair in court you would guess he was up on child porn charges?
  21. I don't know. I see stuff like that from Democrats all the time. Of course the are terrified of Trump's policies so being terrified is more understandable.
  22. Sometimes the smallest bird has the sweetest song.
  23. I have not heard the pundits discussing that since the GRU agents indicted were all officers, there were dozens of hackers under their command who were not indicted. Orr perhaps there are sealed indictments against them and they are on travel lists.
  24. Beto is on pace to bring in over $40 million dollars during his senate campaign, since he is already over $23 million and should hit $37 million around the end of September. I decided to look at recent spending history in senate races to see how that compares and I only found one candidate who spent more, and that was Linda McMahon. But she was spending over $40 million of her own money both times in a losing effort. My search was not exhaustive, so perhaps Beto is not on a record pace for a candidate who is not self-funded but he is up there. I am curious how much the ftedcruz PAC has brought in, but have not seen a report yet.
  25. As the former state manager of radioactive material licensing i can tell you his claim is bullshit.
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