RayDog

Hurray, hurray, outdoor fucking starts today.

I suspect we we see more party flipping in the next two years.

If the war does end it will be Kim who deserves the prize.

Since it has been about a month I thought a status report would be good. Republican held seats in jeapardy AZ Likely opponents Sinema Vs. McSally, Latest polls Sinema +6, Clear lead for Sinema in all polls AZ2 possible if McCain retires before May 31. After May 31 the AZ governor (R) will appoint a replacement to finish out the term I expect McCain will hold out if he can so a Republican gets appointed, otherwise Republicans run a real risk of losing both AZ Senate seats in November. TN Bredesen Vs Blackburn RCP average Bredesen +5, latest pole Bredesen +3, greatest difference +10 Bredesen, clearly breaking for Bredesen NV Heller Vs Rosen, latest polls Heller +1, Rosen +.4, a true toss-up TX Cruz Vs. O'Rourke, latest poll Cruz +3, another toss-up, although still being labeled as likely Republican by most prediction services. MS2 LIkely Opponents in the run-off Hyde-Smith Vs Espy, latest poll Hyde-Smith +6 (but with 22% undecided) This poll had an essentially equal percent of Republican and Democratic responders, so Espy's best chance would rely on a strong Democratic turnout similar to the recent Alabama senate election. A strong Democratic candidate for governor will also drive Democratic turnout. This one is to early to tell, even if it is considered likely Republican by most services. The Republicans could lose between 2 and 5 seats based on the current figures. 5 would only happen if there is a lopsided turnout similar to what happen in Alabama. Democratic held seats in jeopardy FL Nelson Vs Scott, RCP average Nelson +3.8, latest poll Nelson +4, no polls have shown Scott with a lead IN Likely Opponents Donnely Vs ?. The Republican primary is May 8, It is too early to get accurate polling for the general. MO McCaskil Vs Hawley RCP average McCaskil 2.3, latest McCaskil +4, no polls have shown Hawley with a lead ND Heitkamp Vs. Cramer, Latest poll Heitkamp +3, Heitkamp consistently leading the polling WV Manchin Vs ?, Primary May 8, Manchin is polling ~50% against all possible opponents with a big lead against all the Republican candidates MT Tester Vs. ?, primary June 5. All major predictor sites have this as a lean Democratic race OH Brown Vs Renacci, Brown +13 average of latest two pools. Lean Democrat on all major prediction sites, but so far looks like a safe Democratic seat. It looks like the Democrats could lose between 0 and 4 seats, with Indiana being the least predictable at this point. I read an interesting article that looked at the toss-ups in mid term senate races and they always break for one party or the other typically at about an 80% clip. It currently looks like things are breaking in the Democrats favor this time.

Beto is going to win assuming that the level of voter interest by party stays about the same as it is now. In the recent Alabama senate race for example one predominantly democratic district had 70% of its 2016 turnout while a predominantly Republican district had 50% of its 2016 turnout. If something similar happens in Texas several other state races will also be competitive. The question is whether Trump and/or congress can do something in the next 6 months to reengage the Republican voters.

If she thinks gay sex is gross, probably not. And, forget about anal.

The Russians have been using green parties as useful idiots for a while now. The Russians where particularly successful in spreading anti-fracking propaganda in the EU which ultimately lead to anti-fracking legislation. Of course, the Russians don't give a shit about the environment in EU countries, they didn't want EU countries developing alternative sources of natural gas.

Who are you wanting us to go to war against?

I read somewhere that if you look at republican senators that are not aligned with Trump currently the gap may be as small as six votes. In January it should be smaller than that. It will take real evidence to get those last few votes for removal but it is not outside the realm of possibility.

I was going to do this after the Philippines, but I never left the Philippines.

I posted this to the Trump thread but it belongs here too. The collapse of the NK nuclear test side led to Kim's change in tactics. http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2143171/north-koreas-nuclear-test-site-has-collapsed-and-may-be-why-kim-jong-un

Lazy https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2018/04/26/this-could-be-the-real-reason-why-north-korea-stopped-its-nuclear-missile-tests/#16a2ac7364c2 http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2143171/north-koreas-nuclear-test-site-has-collapsed-and-may-be-why-kim-jong-un

I can think of a few other ways.

It is important to keep in mind that North Korea suspended nuclear testing because their test site was destroyed. The destruction of the test site is the reason Kim changed tactics and decided he could now negotiate with one of the terms being that they would suspend nuclear testing since they already had to. It was the destruction of the test site that led to a change in Kim's tactics not a Trump tweet.

I ran into a guy here in the Philippines who said he owed a lot in federal income tax after getting up side down in the housing market in 2008. He came here and has not filed US taxes since. He is talking about taking a trip to the US in a couple months for the first time in 10 years. I am curious to see if they arrest him.

I recommend a 2 week vacation to Pattaya or Angeles. Then repeat as necessary.

In the Philippines people mostly borrow from relatives and friends (and foreigners who are suckers). Someone goes in and hands over the money with the name of the recipient and a 5% processing fee. They get a code that the other person can use to retrieve it. The person can pick it up anywhere by showing id and the code. It is like Westen Union but far more efficient and popular. I think it is a much better approach to microlending. The companies could probably still make a profit with a 2% fee.

If McCain retires next month the Democrats could pick up two senate seats in AZ.

I am sensing bigotry against age gap relationships.

Kampala has been emailing her updates to Democrats all over the country. I am pretty sure she will be running for president.

I am wondering if Trump goes to Russia to avoid jail time.

But Cruz is not the only reason to break from straight ticket voting with Patrick and Miller be two other reasons at the state level. There are plenty of other US and state congressional races and local races that should also get more people to split their ticket. The more people who do the worse for Cruz.

I wished they had polled voters on interest since the latest national figures are 66% for Democrats and 49% for Republicans. We need that information to gauge potential turnout. If 10% more Democrats vote then normal it could put Beto over the top.

Great lady. Sadly I have a bad feeling that they may be one of those couples that die within days of each other.

I watched the live stream from Georgetown on facebook. If you have any interest in this race do yourself a favor and watch him live. If nothing else he passes the I want to have a beer with that guy test.