Jump to content

BrazilHorn

Certifiably Surly
  • Posts

    6949
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by BrazilHorn

  1. 6 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

    Nice, that's a good find. I haven't been able to find anything like that, showing trends of hospitalizations by race. What's the link to that?

    In a scenario where protests are driving an increase I'd expect to see the black and white shares increase, for obvious reasons. That last data point on that chart looks like the last week of May (terrible labeling), which would be just after the murder. So your chart is a good baseline vs. what comes after.

    https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

    You can toggle between hospitalization/icu/vent at aggregate level or by ethnicity

    • Like 1
  2. 1 minute ago, texifornia said:

    Jesus fucking Christ dude, you are actively hunting for things to hate on the past couple days. This is all normal recruiting evaluation stuff, especially before anyone's played their senior year.

    Once they actually take a commitment from a guy like this (hi Casey Cain!) is the appropriate time to work yourself up into a lather.

    I know, I am bitter and tired of suckitude among coaching staff and players. I am having hard time seeing forest for trees here or that the staff actually have a coherent recruiting plan. Just tired of seeing many of top players go out of state. I just have very little faith in Herman and having yet another staff "reboot" just seems to be a repeat of the CS era.

  3.  

    51 minutes ago, BradInATX said:
    1 hour ago, Anastasis said:
    Austin is one of the better regions of the state as far as mask wearing and social distancing practices, at least it was until we crammed 10s of thousands of people into protests. The case data strongly suggest a jump related to protests. I hope that there is actually something else going on and maybe it is memorial day.  Because if the trend we are seeing is related to the earliest protests, wait until we see what happens when the mass gatherings on Sunday work their way through the system. 
    ticktock.png
     
     

    Read more  

    Yeah, the last two days could definitely be protest related. I've got my eye on that over the next little bit as well as the ratio of change in cases vs. hospitalizations. You could sort of (very unscientifically) back into some demographic assumptions if cases continue to go up and hospitalizations don't.

    Travis county tracks hospitalizations by ethnicity, so it will be interesting to see what happens in that regard. The protests in Austin have been very diverse however so I am not fully sure that one group more than another will stand out.

    image.thumb.png.20553042abb57bed292adcb5370d279c.pngspacer.pngspacer.png

     

     

  4. Super excited to see UT competing with Kansas and Houston Baptist for talent. I am sure he has upside but I prefer when Texas is going after talent that would actually be  a take at schools like LSU, Alabama, Clemson, OU etc. Seeing UT looking at kids that Colorado is the best school on their offer list is a little concerning.

    I get having to look for diamonds in the rough but there would seem to be better options out there than a low 3 star.

    • Fuck You 1
  5. This would make argument it seems that increase in bum fuck areas is due to more readily available testing vs necessarily any reopening mechanics. I would imagine that people living in small towns etc haven't been as "shut down" as those in major metro areas.

    We have seen a jump up in Travis County yesterday in hospitalizations but it is still only slightly above 7 day moving average.

    To me that is the metric to really follow as that is one that impacts health care system. The protests to me is the wildcard as who knows if folks from them that were exposed have even started to demonstrate symptoms as of yet due to incubation period of virus. These protests are a massive variable as they are absolutely accelerating the broader "re-opening" that was occurring.

     

  6. Outside of the LSU game and the KU game he has been a non-factor in most games played in. I like him as a player and think he can be a valuable piece but not someone that couldn't be replaced if he opts to leave.

    I do believe that he is making a mistake if he leaves the team as the audience for his message shrinks considerably.

    Brennan Eagles the Longhorn football player who lets say has 75 catches this year and a great season - huge audience

    Brennan Eagles former athlete now just a UT student - next to no audience

  7. 1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

    I'm probably not going to get into as much partisan finger pointing as the rest (liberals will blame Abbott, conservatives will blame BLM), but I think at this point it's extraordinarily unlikely that the protests have anything to do with the rising hospitalizations. 

    - Time to hospitalization averages around 10 days, plus some lag time in reporting. The very first protests in Texas were just 10 days ago.
    - The majority of people at those protests are in low risk demographics. Young and generally healthier and in better shape than the average population.

    I think it's very likely that we're going to see a spike in cases from the protests (in fact, the huge spike over the last two days might be related). But I think it's misinformed to try to assign blame to the rallies for the hospitalizations.

    Don't disagree re: timing. But as cases spike if hospitalizations follow trend they should increase as a % as well. You could argue age of protestors skews younger so perhaps it won't in this case. Regardless will be very interesting study in what happens when a "full" re-opening occurs.

    The cat is out of the bag with protests in terms of people coming together. Especially given fact that they are happening in nearly every city in Texas. Will be an interesting analytics exercise coming out of all this.

  8. 1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

    This is a slow motion catastrophe almost entirely due to negligence of leadership. The unknown is the severity of the consequences. 

    I don't think that's fully fair. Had protests never occurred and this was all just due to reopening etc perhaps. Not sure if you have seen the picture from Austin yesterday where thousands of people were shoulder to shoulder. I fully support and endorse the protests (and I guess can conceptually agree that police brutality is due to negligence in leadership if that is point you're making).

    Hospitalizations for me are key and now they are rising. They will continue to rise I'd imagine as all of these people gather together in mass demonstrations across the state.

     

  9. 1 hour ago, elfenix said:

    i want to push back on this.  with appropriate measures (SiP, mask wearing, distancing, hygiene, isolate, quarantine, contact trace), not only do you reduce the number of people hitting hospitals at any one time but also reduce the number of people who get it. 

    this page does a pretty good job of explaining how this stuff works:

    https://ncase.me/covid-19/

    Those are highly scenario based models based on exactly how it is not happening here in the US. Full scale contact tracing eg or repeated shut downs don't appear to be method that US is planning on going.

    Also the protests have completely blown doors off all methodologies and people are in closer contact than in months. Will be interesting to see where it goes from here.

  10. 1 hour ago, golfclap said:

    GTFO with that shit. This class has a bunch of ELITE motherfuckers in it already. Sanders. Bowman. Milroe. Thomas. Harris. Conner. Blackwell. Looking really good for Ibraheem and maybe even Mukuba (who is drastically underrated IMHO). 

    Add in a fucking awesome moldable piece of clay like Juan Davis and a ProKick P in Pearson. 

    Yes, it's a fucking hot mess at OL and RB. No, I have no idea what will happen at either spot but the core of this class is fucking incredibly talented. 

     

    Last season was the first time we haven't done this in a fucking decade. It's part of why I am bullish about where we are. Guys that used to not only go on the 2-deep but actually start as FR are getting to RS and develop. 

    I love Texas and want the Longhorns to kill it. I just haven't seen it in a long time on a consistent basis. I am tired of seeing OU win Big12 repeatedly, seeing them have Heisman candidates on stage as winners and finalists (albeit transfers), tired of seeing OU OL be high draft picks while Texas players are undrafted or 2nd day picks. If texas missing out on this OL haul after the '20 haul of good but not great OL that is a HUGE miss and a major cause for alarm.

  11. 13 minutes ago, texifornia said:

    The AVERAGE ranking in this class is a mid-low 4-star and Burt covered the fact that the GT OLs were a Herman solution to a Charlie problem. You're letting personal dislike cloud your eyes.

    I guess so, just tired of seeing no coherent OL strategy or play year after year. Rolling out guys on rollerskates, leaving "blood on the field" guys in, playing Freshmen as we have no depth etc etc

  12. Texas is turning into 3 Star University with this class. Herman needs a tremendous year or otherwise the gap will continue to widen. The fact that UT has needed grad transfer linemen to just field a starting 5 speaks to overall lack of development and poor recruiting that has happened here.

    Fingers crossed it gets better, unfortunately I just do not believe any longer in this HC and his ability to reach prospects (high level prospects)

    • Like 1
    • Fuck You 6
  13. Can I say this hits close to home if lives in my neighborhood?

    Don't know shit about him, my younger son has played against one of his kids in various sports over the years. If he is a Trumper then he should deal with any outcome of that choice, not sure penalizing a bunch of cooks/waiters etc trying to make a living does that. (although I guess they can go somewhere else to work)

  14. 10 hours ago, texifornia said:

    Mormonism certainly has a bad history with race, but at this point it's very welcoming.

    For years blacks weren’t allowed to hold leadership positions and were viewed as having the “mark of Cain”   
     

    Mormons have generations of anti-black sentiment. Perhaps they’re better now but they had a lot of hate for a lot of years. (As did lots of others obviously)

    • Like 1
  15. 9 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

    Where are you pulling the chart for the antibody test from?  And do we have a decent amount of testing in the area at this point to say X% have the antibodies?

    https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/

    They have a live tool that is updated with various views. Lots of good visuals. Only 113k antibody tests have been administered and as folks like ChiTownDoc have mentioned who knows how accurate those tests have been.

  16. 21 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

    Roughly half the country supports the manner in which cops are behaving (or think they should be more aggressive) and the other half don’t want any part of the brotherhood. Which pool do you think the candidates will come from?

    maybe I am an optimist. 40 million people I figure we can find 57 who could be better than the ones who "quit"

    • Like 1
  17. Fuck those Buffalo cops. They should fire every POS one of them. Total horseshit. I am willing to bet with 40 million people unemployed that you can find 50 odd or so out of them:

    A) willing to live in/near Buffalo

    B) willing to be a cop (and probably do a better job than these shitstains)

    • Like 1
  18. 32 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

    Thanks for this @BrazilHorn

    Mike Roach Humidor:   The events in Minneapolis took place, stopping America in her tracks.   Race is the most difficult subject to broach in American discourse even when emotion isn’t turned to 11 but Tom Herman did the smartest thing someone in his position could do – he sat back and listened. On Monday, a team meeting was scheduled for 45 minutes. It organically went for one hour, then two, and finally three as players “poured out their heart.” Even incoming Michigan wide receiver transfer Tarik Black, who still isn’t on campus, spoke. Herman also relaxed his preferences regarding player usage of social media. This has led to Brennan Eagles publicly contemplating sitting out the season, however sources don’t think that will happen. “Brennan is like many, he’s frustrated and knows he has a platform and wants to do something. It’s not a team message, it’s his individual message.” (Eagles will live with Sam Ehlinger this upcoming season. This will very likely be a big development.) 

     

    I have been highly critical of Herman the last 12-18 mos as I think he hasn't done a great job in aggregate. I will say on this issue I believe that he has really responded well.

    I completely support Brennan in doing whatever he chooses to do, I do think as a player he has a much bigger amplifier for his voice than as a former player.

    • Like 3
×
×
  • Create New...