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BrazilHorn

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Posts posted by BrazilHorn

  1. 1 minute ago, LTtxfan said:

     

    I am sure they are already doing this but UT should be able to easily show how a player sees following evolution in terms of marketability:

    1) Be given offer from UT while a recruit - X% increase in instagram/twitter followers etc

    2) Actually commit to UT to become a player: X% additional increase in social media followers, increased eyeballs on tik tok videos etc

    3) Become a starter/playmaker at Tier 1 position - (QB, RB eg) - % additional increase, branding opportunities, appearance fees, autograph sales etc

    4) Become All - American level talent, NFL consideration - etc etc etc

    Should be easy for UT to show prospects just how they have taken regional players like Sam Ehlinger (who next to no one outside of Austin had heard of) and turned them (Sam's play certainly helped) into a high value brand that he can now start to monetize. Obviously all players aren't the QB at Texas but there is still huge opportunity here for a player with a bit of personality that plays a high impact position (DE racking up sacks and forced fumbles eg)

    This is a nice first step from UT on this topic, they need to show the data and $ they are driving for the players.

  2. Had someone a couple of streets over put their house up for sale by owner for $2M over the 2019 appraisal. I guess the guy is just saying "Well fuck it, Tesla is coming and a bunch of other Californians, let me put a crazy ass price on my crib ($4M) and see if someone bites".

    Will see what happens, as it is an nice house but that is a crazy price for it.

  3. Here are the 7/28 cases vs prior day. Looks like TCAD caught a data error (they added 2 cases day over day to <1 and removed 2 from 1-9). Good distribution otherwise across daily case load. Cases down week over week by ~400 or so (Travis had 603 cases on 7/21) so keep the bars closed.

    Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
    New Cases 7/28 vs 7/27 2 -2 1 77 66 34 33 16 3 2 232
    % of Daily Change 0.86% -0.86% 0.43% 33.19% 28.45% 14.66% 14.22% 6.90% 1.29% 0.86%  
    % of Total Cases 0.53% 2.69% 7.69% 27.30% 21.69% 16.30% 11.53% 6.38% 3.29% 2.60%   19,950
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  4. 8 hours ago, ousux said:
    20 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:
    Worst thing will be if CDC gives Herman some bullshit additional extension after this season gets canceled.
     

    It may be bullshit, but not giving an extension would send the wrong signal to potential recruits..and give competing coaches like Fatterson real ammo for neg recruiting,

    He's being negatively recruited now for not producing any NFL talent (hopefully 2021 draft changes that), not consistently winning and having high staff churn. IDMAS. If you fall into the "we could be negatively recruited" trap you'll never get out of it.

  5. 42 minutes ago, Halohal said:

    Has the involved shooters name been released.

    I think if you release the driver's name you could bring the twitterverse down on him before all of the facts are fully understood. If once process runs course it ends up he is a white supremacist POS that was carrying the gun in his lap, had posted about "going downtown to fuck shit up" etc etc then yeah put his shit on blast.

    If it ends up the guy made a bad turn, honked out of concern, freaked out when a crowd rushed car and saw some big dude strapped with an AK headed his way and reacted then you put this driver at potential risk of harm.

    This is just a really terrible case where all the actors involved had a chance to make different decisions along the way. I am looking forward to seeing the facts coming out.

     

     

    • Like 1
  6. Travis county breakout by age. 50+ brackets for yesterday has a slight uptick vs their share of total cases overall.

    Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
    New Cases 7/27 vs 7/26 0 4 11 66 50 40 34 17 7 11 240
    % of Daily Change 0.00% 1.67% 4.58% 27.50% 20.83% 16.67% 14.17% 7.08% 2.92% 4.58%  
    % of Total Cases 0.53% 2.73% 7.78% 27.23% 21.61% 16.32% 11.50% 6.37% 3.31% 2.62%   19,718
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  7. Added in the <1 year old age bracket as I now have a couple of days to compare it (and to make sure TCAD didn't pull it). Very low daily case increase. Tuesdays are the normal big dump day so we will see what happens. ~120 fewer cases vs this day last week so that is good movement. Only noticeable outlier for the day is in the 70-79 year old bracket with 8 cases (~10% of daily total - this is 3x this brackets normal showing). Area of concern given high death numbers for this bracket. (24% of all deaths in Travis County are from 70-79 bracket vs 3.3% of cases)

    Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
    New Cases 7/26 vs 7/25 0 3 5 24 14 12 7 3 8 3 79
    % of Daily Change 0.00% 3.80% 6.33% 30.38% 17.72% 15.19% 8.86% 3.80% 10.13% 3.80%  
    % of Total Cases 0.53% 2.74% 7.82% 27.23% 21.62% 16.31% 11.46% 6.37% 3.32% 2.60% 19,478
  8. 4 minutes ago, smoky said:

    Is it possible to break up the teenage bracket?

    There's a world of difference between a 10 year old and a 19 year old.

    They don't break it out that way. the <1 bracket just started to show the past two days (waiting to get more info on it to add to dailies, but there are also 103 kids <1 year that have tested positive)

  9. I started tracking deaths by age cohort on a WoW basis (is how Travis County shows it). 60+ is still 82% of all deaths. If you are young and going out stay away from grandparents unless you hate them. This is only three weeks of data and is a line chart that shows W/E 7/11, 7/18 & 7/25 in terms of Total Deaths by Age Group. This is not the change in deaths but rather the total. W/E 7/11 eg there were 168 total deaths in Travis County, w/e 7/25 there are 241.

    I still don't know why the 20-29 number dropped from 3 to 2. All I can figure is data error on TCAD side. ~48% of the increase in deaths from 7/11 have been in the 80 yo + age group. From a total mortality perspective there have been 503 people 80 yo+ that have tested positive for CV19 & 93 of them have died so ~18.4%. (off 2.6% total cases). You can see by the peak up in W/e 7/25 that 60-69 & 80+ died at higher clip than prior week.

    Stay away from the olds. If you are old (Hi Armybrat) stay away from your kids/grandkids at stay home. If you are old with an underlying condition (Hi Mom) you are taking your life absolutely in your own hands if you go out/mingle with the world.

    image.png.306e282c901fcd7e2eb343f77a80c382.png

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  10. Here is a chart that shows over the last 2 weeks the daily change in case count by age cohort. Basically taking the daily views I have been sending and putting them in chart form in stack bar with connectors. If you see the connectors open the cohorts share of a given day is increasing (opposite if lines close). You can see some interesting trends pop within certain date ranges. 10-19 this past week eg. I Set as a 100% stack bar as that allows you to more easily see the variance between the age cohorts vs a regular stack bar. Each age cohort's daily case count is labeled.

    image.png.111901245b83bdb4e63660e2319f4f1d.png

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    • Like 2
  11. Here are the daily cases by age cohort for Travis County. Big jumps in the younger ranges again vs the regular average. I am wondering again if this is just result of more families getting tested, parents getting kids tested in advance of camp, or kids returning from camp that are infected. To have ~27% of daily cases be <19 years old is a big jump vs normal share. This is around the 3rd time in past week this has happened. One other cohort that I am not showing today but assuming it is on chart again tomorrow from TCAD is the 0-1 bucket. They were present in numbers, then appeared to not be and today showed back up. There are 103 infants 0-1 years old in Travis County that have had Covid. If they leave the 0-1 cohort in data set I will start showing daily change for this grouping as well.

    Age Bracket 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
    New Cases 7/24 vs 7/23 20 39 43 40 30 23 14 4 10 223
    % of Daily Change 8.97% 17.49% 19.28% 17.94% 13.45% 10.31% 6.28% 1.79% 4.48%  
    % of Total Cases 2.74% 7.87% 27.38% 21.78% 16.34% 11.55% 6.40% 3.32% 2.62% 19,062
  12. 47 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

    I’m shocked. 

     

    Selling after an public announcement shouldn’t be a problem. Problem will be when SEC sees that the announcements themselves were solely fabricated to increase share prices. 
     

    This is what I think is happening, just puff pieces around vaccine research etc, share price goes up, profit. 

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  13. Here is a chart showing the 7day average comparison since June 5th until July 23rd (I am one day short of the final 7d (should be 7/24 - will update tomorrow)). It is interesting how the % of hospitalizations requiring ICU is declining whereas the % of Hospitalizations requiring a ventilator are increasing over the past 4 time increments.

    This is for Travis County and is comparing 7 day Moving Average between the % of Hospitalizations in ICU vs % of Hospitalizations requiring a Ventilator

    image.png.9d9f771530456bd4439a49b17f9fe463.png

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    • Like 1
  14. Another spike in daily cases in the 10-19 group vs their historic average. Good news 1st day in a week or so that the 60 yo + grouping were below their historic average.

    Not sure if the 10-19 spike is just due to kids returning from camp or people testing in advance of camp or school activities but if this keeps up will be interesting to see how it impacts AISD back to school plans. (Data for Travis County)

    Age Bracket 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
    New Cases 7/23 vs 7/22 8 24 79 53 34 15 11 11 7 242
    % of Daily Change 3.31% 9.92% 32.64% 21.90% 14.05% 6.20% 4.55% 4.55% 2.89%  
    % of Total Cases 2.66% 7.76% 27.48% 21.83% 16.37% 11.57% 6.40% 3.33% 2.60% 18,839
  15. Really weird blip in Travis county yesterday (I am wondering if this is some kids coming home from camp phenomena) with 20% of the daily cases being in the 10-19 age group. This is ~3X this age groups share of overall cases. Only 290 total cases yesterday (this day last week was 567 so good WoW reduction in the daily case count. The 20-29 age bracket is less than half their normal share. This combined with the 10-19 jump makes me wonder if some data entry person at TCAD didn't fast finger the info.

    Age Bracket 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
    New Cases 7/22 vs 7/21 10 58 33 83 32 31 29 4 10 290
    % of Daily Change 3.45% 20.00% 11.38% 28.62% 11.03% 10.69% 10.00% 1.38% 3.45%  
    % of Total Cases 2.66% 7.73% 27.41% 21.83% 16.40% 11.64% 6.43% 3.32% 2.60% 18,597
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  16. 1 hour ago, LTbear said:

    Has our ability to treat the virus improved over the past four months? Is it therefore reasonable to assume, vaccine or not, that our ability to treat it will improve again within the next 6 months?

    I guess but ultimately if you look at this age cohort (especially at this level of fitness) odds of serious infections and certainly death are very low. For example 82% of all deaths in Austin are 60+ years old (off ~12% cases). My vote would be push to next fall and lose this year as I just don't see what material benefit players and staff get playing in Spring. What your articulating in terms of treatment improvements isn’t as applicable to top tier 18-22 yo athletes in peak condition. 
     

    Good debate and certainly an interesting Ethical challenge (player safety) for college football fans to discuss. 

  17. 7 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:
    1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:
    Flatten the curve for who? Fans? Forget the fans in the stands. You can sequester players and coaches relatively easily. See MLB, NBA, EPL, KBL etc
    If the notion is that we need to wait for a vaccine that is safe to be available at scale then I think you may as well wait until next fall as there is minimal likelihood that one that fits the criteria you lay out is available in the Spring.
    I agree that rushing to reopen for the general population is why we are where we are. That and US politicizing mask wearing etc and being one of the fattest countries in the world doesn't help either. With that said you are talking about 65 odd players, 10 coaches, call it 20 grad assistants, 5-10 S&C coaches & 5-10 trainers etc and then others that frankly can do their job with no in person player interaction (tutors, athletic dept overhead eg). So call it 100-150 people that need to be sequestered per team. This is far different than needing to manage the millions who live in Austin, Dallas, Houston etc
    For me it is about player safety. I don't fully see what you get waiting until spring in terms of this. If you are worried re: fans in stands that is different discussion.

    Read more  

    Jesus, do you realize that you're not talking about pro football here?

    Yes. My piece is what does Spring really change? I’d argue canceling the season altogether is only rational outcome here. 
    (As much as I’d hate that to happen)

    I see no material difference (for the players in terms of playing this fall vs spring)

    fans yes, players no. 

  18. 46 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

    It buys you time to ‘ flatten’ the curve and eventually ‘crush’ the curve.

    Time buys you the possibility of finding a treatment that reduces lethality.

    Time buys you the possibility of getting the inside straight draw ... a US vaccine that works and is safe.

    Time is everything when you’re in a race.

    Its not guarantee. 
    But it can’t hurt and has a chance to be better.

    The idea that there won’t be an absolute cure / CoVID won’t be irradiated so we might as well just go ahead is exactly why we’re in this situation now.

    You’ll see surging cases again and the season will be cut short. It’s a prescription for failure.... IMO

    Flatten the curve for who? Fans? Forget the fans in the stands. You can sequester players and coaches relatively easily. See MLB, NBA, EPL, KBL etc

    If the notion is that we need to wait for a vaccine that is safe to be available at scale then I think you may as well wait until next fall as there is minimal likelihood that one that fits the criteria you lay out is available in the Spring.

    I agree that rushing to reopen for the general population is why we are where we are. That and US politicizing mask wearing etc and being one of the fattest countries in the world doesn't help either. With that said you are talking about 65 odd players, 10 coaches, call it 20 grad assistants, 5-10 S&C coaches & 5-10 trainers etc and then others that frankly can do their job with no in person player interaction (tutors, athletic dept overhead eg). So call it 100-150 people that need to be sequestered per team. This is far different than needing to manage the millions who live in Austin, Dallas, Houston etc

    For me it is about player safety. I don't fully see what you get waiting until spring in terms of this. If you are worried re: fans in stands that is different discussion.

  19. I guess I don't see what moving games to Spring really gains you. There still won't be a vaccine, for bulk of country they will be in throes of winter making playing outdoors probably even less safe with Covid/Regular Flu Season combo in full effect. Playing in Feb in Wisconsin & other cold weather states would be awful and have its own risks to player safety.

    Reduce number of folks allowed in stands, make them wear masks (or just go with zero fans in stands for all I care)

    From a player safety perspective I fail to see what springtime play truly does. Have them on private buses, charter planes for travel etc to minimize exposure to randos. No one on sidelines that is not on staff or a player or part of TV/Referee etc (sorry MOC & other BMDs)

    Maybe I just really want some normalcy in sports this fall but moving to spring on the surface seems to just kick can down the road.

    I fully understand Covid data right now and the trend the US is on. That may be the answer in and of itself, but considering what we see daily on TV around dipshits not wearing masks etc I just don't see why we think Spring would be better than fall.

     

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