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Posts posted by BrazilHorn
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1 hour ago, B00M said:
And too fucking meaningless to justify the effort. Maybe this is the beginning of the end of people talking about testing positivity rates.
I hope so. Absolutely meaningless metric in terms of basing opening/closing things down off of. Count cases/100,000 people or hospitalizations etc. PR sucks.
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15 hours ago, Texaus said:
Noticed thujone’s book showed up in my kindle library today. I forgot I preordered it a long time ago.
Same. Looking forward to checking it out.
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4 minutes ago, victory88 said:
Yeah, it was on LHN. They'll have it replaying I'm sure. Compare how our team looks and how they look in the drills vs the aggy cbs video showing highlights of their training camp. There's a reason aggy doesn't want to play us right now. We look leagues better than them. The fact they people have them ranked ahead of us is laughable. We'd wipe the floor with them.
Couple of things.
- Herman has a fantastic support staff in place. I don't think Mack or Charlie ever cared to fully maximize the resources at Texas. Herman has. They mentioned others schools across the country are calling Texas on how to handle Covid-19. Players are getting tested 3 times a week. We can test them every day if we can. Only other organization testing more than Texas football is the NBA.
- They showed a few clips of special teams coaching. Boulware knows his shit. Glad he's running special teams.
- QBs look fucking good. Hudson Card is going to start the next 3 years. I have 0 doubt about this. He's clearly a better passer than JQJ and Thompson and he was making his reads and getting the ball out quicker than Sam in some of the clips where they are training. You can tell he's been coached up his whole life. His footwork and mechanics are well ahead of most freshman. He's also spent time in the gym and looks like he belongs out there.
- This is a mature team that is 100% bought in. The leaders on this team are the best players and the hardest workers. That permeates through to the rest of the team.
- I hate to say this... Malcolm Epps looked good in a few clips. They showed his 2 TD catches in the 1st scrimmage. Hopefully he's bought into TE and hopefully we use him to his strengths. He's got insane height and length and he has great hands. He just needs to realize he's 6'6 and fucking get physical and block.
- They had a few clips of Troy Omerie. He's a physical specimen. How the fuck did we shit on him all through his recruitment. Sucks that we lost him because he looks like the best WR on the team and it's not close. He made some fucking jaw dropping catches. Tarik Black looks good too. That was a fantastic pick up by the staff.
Just a few things I noticed from the all-access episode.
They also gave Overshown a real platform and he read his entire "Am I next" tweet and did a very nice job. Considering the ebbs and flows with him I thought that was a really smart job by Herman to have this happen as you hope it really focuses him. They showed Ossai from his ESPN panel and he is just a really impressive young man. Very insightful and mature beyond his years.
I concur re: Boulware, where he was showing the blockers crossing their legs vs shuffling was really good and calling players out the right way to show examples of what worked and didn't work in same play was good stuff.
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3 minutes ago, TexasFan21 said:
uh oh
They are already in the COA case counts so it doesn't impact anything from that perspective. I will be curious as UT just had to add 109 cases back into their data set from students and staff that had tested positive outside of the UT testing process but then in turn did not self-report as asked to UT.
UT is now up to a total since March of 611 students and 181 faculty/staff that have been CV19 positive.
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51 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:
Give it 4-6 weeks. Remember when all the articles came out 2 weeks after Florida fully re opened and everyone in right wing media was all “WhErE iS tHe ApOlOgY for DeSantis?” And then about a month later things went fucking haywire and hospitalizations and deaths followed. Well, now Texas, but with kids.
The kids won't die (it is like a .01 to .03 mortality rate for school age, age ranges). Not to say there won't be cases but CDC shows that ~80% of those <30 are asymptomatic (and 40% overall) so only way you will know full scope would be to test every kid on a regular basis which considering some places will only test if you are showing symptoms etc will be highly unlikely.
I'd be worried a lot more about the staff, support workers & parents/grandparents that kids might expose to CV19 than the kids themselves. (those are the ones that will die - especially the grandparents (~10% mortality rate for 70-79 & ~21% for 80+)
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4 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:
It took them so long to put the numbers together that people aged.
Yep, this happens I'd say at least once every couple of weeks. I am sure it happens across all age buckets but it is really noticeable in the smaller volumes ones like with the young kids or 80 +. Since I track change daily I can see it when it does this. Then I think they just move it to bucket that they feel it belongs to or just remove altogether.
There are some definite data issues with Travis Co
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Some typical Travis County weirdness where it looks like they moved some cases into different age brackets. 1 to 9 dropped day over day while there was a big increase in <1. I think had we really had 6 kids <1 year in a single day that would have been all over local news as that would be from what I can see the largest single day increase for that age bracket ever. Low overall case count with just 90 new cases yesterday. Also nice drop (except for <1) in the younger brackets reversing the week long trend we had been seeing. For those that hope to see AISD play sports this fall for the FIRST time since June 6th Austin had <10 hospital admissions with 9 yesterday. That is a HUGE step and marks 5 straight days of decline there.
Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total New Cases 9/9 vs 9/8 6 -2 6 14 22 17 18 6 4 -1 90 % of Daily Change 6.67% -2.22% 6.67% 15.56% 24.44% 18.89% 20.00% 6.67% 4.44% -1.11% % of Total Cases 0.52% 2.94% 8.34% 26.66% 21.37% 16.35% 11.57% 6.59% 3.26% 2.39% 27,206 -
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9 minutes ago, dcbc said:
Thanks. Not terribly current, but hopefully updated soon.
Schools are to start supplying data this week I believe. They can add retroactive data if applicable.
Here is site that details process etc
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I really hope he gets a shot to play some place but why would he need to be in transfer portal? He's not playing anywhere currently is he? I thought he was trying to walk on and UT and they said "No" due to Covid?
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1 minute ago, Sawbonz said:
It hasn’t been published yet. It is still under peer review per the authors twitter thread. He posted it online but it hasn’t been released by the journal it was submitted to
got ya. Hopefully that journal pushes back as his suppositions don't seem to hold up. The authors releasing this in manner they did smacks of a "Geoff Ketchum" clickbait grab.
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Just now, Anastasis said:
Wait a second, you mean that 20% of all US infections during this time frame can't be traced back to Sturgis? GTFO.
I know. Just fucking ridiculous that this was published and then that it is being picked up by national media (even being given a caveat) is nutso.
There is enough to be worried about re: CV19 without this type a work happening.
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One thing to talk about also that I see as being the next big "CV19/TMZ reporting" is that of what the 2020/2021 Flu season will look like and how it will intersect and impact CV19.
Here is why I believe that this upcoming Flu season (not accounting for general 2020 "end of days" fuckery as I do believe that 2020 is just fucking crazy in general) will actually not be the issue that people are reporting it to be:
1) Massive upswing in Work From Home vs years prior. A recent Stanford Univ study cites that now upwards of 42% of all workers are currently WFH. This includes the vast majority of large Tech companies (Apple, SFDC, Google eg) that frankly become winter time petri dishes for spread of Flu due to employees feeling they have to come to work whether sick or not and being in close proximity to one another via cubicles & many shared common areas (break room, cafeterias etc)
2) Large number of children not attending in person school. Many kids are sent to school when sick/with sniffles and frankly kids in general are walking germ piles. Having these little mobile flu factories be at home in large numbers will also help reduce potential spread
3) No large scale events. Lack of large events where people are in queues to get to seats, get food etc I believe will also help mitigate spread of flu
4) General awareness of how viruses spread. People are wearing masks and washing hands with FAR greater frequency than ever before. The vast majority of people are very aware of how a virus moves about and if/when they do go out they are masked up and when they return they wash their hands etc.
5) Minimized air travel. No lungers hacking and wheezing stuck in a shared fuselage with people they are infecting. Air travel globally is down ~85% currently. This will have an impact on spread of flu.
I am not saying there won't be a flu season but I just think that some one the headlines I have seen lately "A Looming Double Threat", "What happens when Covid Collides with Flu Season" and so on aren't fully based in reality.
Looking at Australia which just completed their flu season it looks like it was a complete non-starter. With August 2019 cases at 61,000 and August 2020 cases at 107.
That's right 107. For those of you keeping score at home that's a reduction of 60,983 from the prior year.
Chile had 1,134 cases for entire season vs 20,949 in 2019. Argentina saw a 64% drop in cases YoY going from 420k cases to 151k in 2020.
Not saying the US won't find a way to fuck it up. I am just saying that the flu (based on my 5 points (not even counting potential increase in vaccine rate) above) as well as the data from the Southern Hemisphere looks like it may be a whimper vs a roar.
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10 minutes ago, Message Board User said:
To finally put to rest this ridiculous Sturgis study.
https://mobile.twitter.com/anish_koka/status/1303537939952078849
This study to me is another example of "CV19 15 seconds of Internet Fame" that has taken the place of legitimate study/science. Everyone is treating scientific study like TMZ breaking a headline.
I think Sturgis should not have been allowed to happen and that the lack of mask wearing etc was just selfish and stupid, with that said how this report was created using very broad strokes of assumptions. Now national news reports (was on Today show this morning) are running with this story although to give credit to producers on Today show they did caveat that this report is unsubstantiated/validated. IMO they shouldn't have even run it as no peer reviewed journal was accepted their findings.
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Just now, Cheeseweasel said:
It would be more meaningful if they would split these ranges (10-15) (16-19) (20-24) (25-30)
I agree. I will say Travis County does it better than CDC. They tend to lump huge tranches of folks together. Basically like 1-24, 25 - 50 type shit as if there aren't meaningful differences in lifestyle, health etc within those ranges.
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86 cases yesterday. Still seeing much higher share than their normal representation in the 10-19 age group. This makes several days in a row this has happened. May just be due to back to school etc and certainly should bode well for hospitalizations declining. (Have seen 4 straight days of decline with yesterday at 14)
Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total New Cases 9/8 vs 9/7 0 1 13 19 16 18 9 9 1 0 86 % of Daily Change 0.00% 1.16% 15.12% 22.09% 18.60% 20.93% 10.47% 10.47% 1.16% 0.00% % of Total Cases 0.50% 2.95% 8.35% 26.70% 21.36% 16.34% 11.54% 6.59% 3.26% 2.40% 27,116 -
3 minutes ago, Rudiger said:
Wow, I thought it was going to be a few hundred. Wonder why the ranges on the CIs?
I think due to fact that it is not a homogeneous population but rather the 6917 sample size is spread out across multiple different types of folks that can in effect create this range.
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3 minutes ago, Rudiger said:
The spread of those confidence intervals makes me think this was a really small n study.
~7000 people. So large enough for sampling type work and one of the largest ones I have seen specifically targeting examination of role obesity plays in CV19 mortality rates.
Definitely opens eyes to need for a much larger, broader study.
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This is why when folks say "Defund the police" that it shouldn't trigger outrage about public safety.
So many needless deaths have stemmed from cops killing mentally ill people. To be fair to cops they should not be used for this type of work. A mother who cannot control her 13 year old autistic child shouldn't be having to call the police to do it for her.
Take some $ that go to cops and put it towards social workers/mental health professionals that could handle these types of calls initially.
And before anyone throws out the "he's 13, how big could be be?" my son is 13 and is 5'10.5" and could if he was in a meltdown absolutely hurt my wife (no pics) if he was inclined to. So 13 in some cases can be as big as an adult and certainly bigger than the average mom is.
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10 minutes ago, BradInATX said:
Would someone who falls into a higher BMI group but almost purely because of muscle weight vs. fat weight have the same increased risk as the average person? It's been bugging me for awhile since Von Miller reported that it kicked the shit out of him. His BMI is above 30, but he barely has an ounce of fat on him. Would he legitimately be 2x the risk? Or is it more based on fat/body fat? Maybe @ChiTownDoc or @Newdoc have a take. I'm about 30 BMI but by no means carry the fat that your average 30 BMI person does, so it's been eating at me.
I wouldn't think so as BMI technically is supposed to be a measure of the fatness within the body. So if you are >30 but with muscle vs fat you should be ok. If you are >40 BMI which is where the risks level really seem to kick up you must be a powerlifter :-). But as @ChiTownDoc said, this shit seems to hit everyone.
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It is definitely a cool study as it was one of the first ones I had seen that really focused on Obesity and its impact on mortality from CV19. Fairly large sample size (~7000) from Kaiser Permanente in SoCal.
End of day this thing is a stone cold killer of old people and if you are >80 and get this you are fucked.
Also if you are severely obese (40+ BMI) and <60 you have a 12-17X higher chance of dying than if you aren't.
Severe obesity is called out as the absolute leading role in mortality, especially for men <60. (versus men <60 who aren't obese)
No real difference seen based on ethnicity/income level etc.
Interesting thing as well is that there is no one other contributing factor related to obesity that is major mortality driver (hypertension, sleep apnea eg)
Rather just the fact that you are severely obese is the primary driver.
tl:dr - study says if you are younger and fat you die and if you are old regardless of being fat you die
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3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:
Nice. Found the link. That's really interesting, particularly the rest of that visualization that you cut off, but more discussion of that probably belongs in the DT, not here.
Yep - some really cool stuff. I was just showing the piece for <60 years old. One thing for sure is this disease is an absolute fucking killer if you are over 80. It is bad for those 60 to 80 but man if you are >80 and get this you have a VERY high likelihood of dying
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18 minutes ago, BradInATX said:
Where'd you see that one? I hadn't heard that but I certainly believe it. That's pretty interesting, I'd like to read more if you remember your source.
Also, to add on to your "it's not the players, it's the janitors, staff etc.". It's also the players' families. There's a lot of risk there, IMO, particularly around the holidays.
From the "Annals of Internal Medicine" - Article around Obesity & Mortality in the Kaiser Permanente System in Socal.
Here is clip from article. Really spikes in terms of higher risk of mortality if your BMI is 40+ (considered severely obese). I used the low end of the higher risk in my post. Ultimately as I mentioned on other board we are in "Nut allergy" phase to me of CV19. If you know you are at risk of dying from CV19 (which the groups that are at higher risk are WELL established at this juncture) you need to enact the needed precautions to manage that risk. This may include not visiting grand children, going out to eat etc etc. Just like if you had a severe nut allergy you'd ensure that when you did go out you were not at risk of dying of it. (you'd verify restaurant doesn't cook with nuts/let airline know you were traveling and so on).

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1 hour ago, Wanker Bob said:
That's about 80 percent of the country over the age of 30.
It's already a disaster the likes of which no American has ever seen with over 1 in 1500 Americans who were alive on Jan 1 now dead from it. Millions hospitalized from it and many with massive medical bills and trauma from the experience. Now add in it's not close to finished and shows signs of heart damage in the majority of survivors regardless of age and severity of symptoms and this will be damaging this country for decades to come. It takes some callous, stupid pieces of shit to downplay it just to watch a bunch of unpaid kids bash their heads into each other.
~25% of all deaths have come from those in nursing homes/assisted living facilities, 82% of all deaths have been from 60 years old or higher, of the deaths <60 they have averaged 2.6 other issues wrong with them (mostly due to fact that if your BMI is >40 you are 12x more likely to die).
~40% of cases (per CDC) are asymptomatic especially among those that are younger where it has been estimated that upwards of 80% may be asymptomatic. I guess you could try and make point that the virus is hiding in their system to emerge years later, but as there haven't been any studies to this occurrence(and none show for SARS/MERS (that I have seen) that is fairly presumptive.
I don't disagree that there will need to be studies on what long term effects this virus may have in the years to come, there will be years of research on all variety of attributes.
I would state though it is not the athletes at risk here, it is the coaches, janitors, staff, fans etc.
To me play games with no fans, include any support staff in the same rigorous testing protocol as players & coaches and you from a controls perspective are in good shape.
As I have stated all along, it is not an issue re: playing football but rather opening campuses at all. Players are far safer than average student.
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16 minutes ago, Chopper said:
The same researchers studied both the drumpf oklahoma rally and the BLM protests in separate studies and concluded that neither drove an uptick in covid cases for a variety of reasons so it seems unfair to claim bias.
https://www.nber.org/papers/w27408 blm protests
https://www.nber.org/papers/w27522 sparsely attended political rally in OK
I am just going off of the things they focused on that seem to be leading them down a pathway. I don't see "political" bias but more "public health" bias. (which I don't believe they are wrong in terms of wearing masks, social distancing etc)
They then used this public health view to draw huge inferences that Sturgis would be a mass spreading event. I think Sturgis was a stupid, selfish event to hold and for people to attend in the manner they did. I don't doubt there will be cases that stem from it. I just don't believe that 276k or so cases will stem from it.

COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such
in Daily Texan
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WTF is happening to this thread? Did everyone run out of bourbon at the exact same time, get the "DTs" and start pounding away on their keyboards? Stop all the political back and forth you fuckwits. Take that shit to CR and bomb away.
We should be happy right now. Numbers are moving in right direction. We are (speaking for Travis County) where we were three months ago almost to the day in terms of # hospitalized, # of new hospital admits, daily cases etc.
This is great fucking news. It happened because the bars were shut down, people put their masks back on and everyone chilled the fuck out for a couple of months.
We had a week in July where over 70 people a day in Travis county were being admitted to the hospital for CV19. Shit was borked.
Now that Travis has shown it knows how to manage its shit, I believe you can open things up slowly (bars that is). I would follow the "Breckenridge" model. Close 6th street & Rainey Street etc to car traffic. Put tables outdoors in front of the bars, enforce social distancing in bars dramatically and enforce/fine the shit out of bars that go over occupancy. Do this for a bit and see if people can keep it together. This isn't rocket science. We have been seeing what causes peaks and valleys in virus cases since March:
If you cram lots of people in an enclosed space and they aren't wearing masks: bars/nursing homes/cruise ships eg you WILL get an increase in CV19 infections, these infected people will go home and give it to others. Those others will.....You get it. This isn't that hard a concept.
I am not worried about "flooding" the hospitals here in Travis county. I am worried about moving back to a more restrictive Stage. I have enjoyed going to yoga class again, I have enjoyed being able to eat out again, I enjoyed going to Austin Beerworks this past weekend. I don't want a bunch of fucktards to mess it up. I also want to see my 8th grader play football this fall. If Austin can hold its shit together that may happen.
Everyone crack open a beverage, chill the fuck out and be happy that Travis county seems to be getting its arms around this (again)