Posts posted by BrazilHorn
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15 minutes ago, utee94 said:
I know you're looking at this every day, can you tell if the UT cases are getting logged in to the Travis County numbers? Like a while ago when there were some large clusters from West Campus, I think it was around 100 cases... can you tell if those made it into these numbers?
the 78705 zip code shows 618 cases total and this largely encompasses UT (obviously some students can and do live of campus). From 8/30 - 9/12 UT reports that 127 students/faculty/staff tested positive via on campus testing. From the 10-19 & 20-29 age groups for that same period Travis county had an increase in 507 cases. Part of challenge is that UT did a big dump of positive cases via Austin Public Health dump to them and added them in so numbers get murky as if you look at their by day data you will see much larger spikes in count vs what they had on campus.
So short answer long, I believe it is included, but also if person has a different home address then UT it is possible it counts against their count.
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109 cases yesterday for Travis County so not a terrible day re: case count. One area that saw a drop in case % from being in the 30%+ range was the 10-19 age group. One negative for yesterday that 70 - 79 (~10% mortality) & 80+ (~20% mortality) saw an uptick (albeit on small numbers) so I would expect to see potentially 1-2 deaths from the 13 cases that were logged yesterday across these two groups. Hospital admits jumped back up to 17 yesterday ending the four day run of 9.25 admits/avg per day.
Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total New Cases 9/17 vs 9/16 0 6 15 32 21 14 5 3 6 7 109 % of Daily Change 0.00% 5.50% 13.76% 29.36% 19.27% 12.84% 4.59% 2.75% 5.50% 6.42% % of Total Cases 0.51% 2.95% 8.89% 26.78% 21.24% 16.17% 11.43% 6.48% 3.20% 2.36% 28,212 -
1 minute ago, Gap03 said:
Am I the only one that thinks this is incredibly stupid timing? I expect the impact of the schools re-opening here in Texas to start hitting in earnest about a month after the schools open. Much like what we saw in Florida, many of the younger folks (party folks in Florida, students here in Texas) will end up being asymptomatic, so while we'll see a modest uptick in positive cases initially, it will take 3-4 weeks for the parents and older people to start catching it, at which point the cases will really start to tick up. Hopefully increased mask-wearing will keep it from being June / July all over again, but letting people cram into restaurants / offices seems like pouring gas on a small brush fire. If you look at the graphs at 91-divoc.com, you'll see that we're already starting to see things ramping up over the last few days - the weekly average cases/day had bottomed out at 2,682 three days ago, but has ramped up to 4,187 since. Perhaps just a blip in the data, but I just don't understand the timing of this move.
They are tracking the right thing which is hospitalizations. These are going down with the exceptions of a couple of counties. Bars remain closed. It is taking restaurants to 75% along with retail etc.
In terms of offices, this moves does nothing to make large tech companies go back to work. Almost all of them are on record saying June of 2021 as earliest to return.
Keeping bars closed is smart and this was the big nexus for Texas cases booming in the early summer. Data this far showing there hasn't been a post labor day spike either so there is good news on that front as well. This is going to come in ebbs/flows and hopefully people learned that if they fuck up again like last time things opened it'll be shut down once more.
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Edited by BrazilHorn
18 minutes ago, PantsTent said:I know Austin/Travis reports total COVID hospitalizations and COVID new hospital admits. Anybody know where the % of total hospitalizations for COVID is reported since that is the metric cited?
https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/additionaldata/
Here is link. You will need to go into excel sheet and track. One thing I can tell you for Travis is roughly 15% of all cases result in hospitalization. (that is starting to trend down a bit as younger people are becoming bigger chunk of cases lately)
You can see Austin has 94 people in beds with CV19 as of 9/16 vs a total bed population of 3,273 (not counting ICU). I got this by adding occupied & empty tabs for Austin. This puts Austin at 2.87% of beds occupied by CV19 patients. Bear in mind this is the Austin metro area. (which is how state looks at it).
edit - Here is another link that shows ppt presentation of various metro areas and hospital capacity. This is from June 16th
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16 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:
Won’t change the lawsuit, but will make a bunch happy:
Some interesting things:
- fuck you bars
- nursing homes opening up if they have solid practices and no outbreaks
- wear your make and wash your hands (hint: many won’t)
- the influx of 15-minute tests will have a huge impact on schools and athletics
- they are following hospitalizations as an indicator
I really think that Abbot is right in this case in terms of using hospitalizations as key measure. I also support bars staying closed. I do believe that places like Rainey St/6th St. etc could close to automotive traffic and offer outdoor seating and the city could leverage porta potties for bathrooms. (This is what Breckenridge did this summer) as a means to open bars up. Just don't let folks congregate indoors. I also like the nursing home ban if CV19 is evident. Given all the lab fuckery anything to allow for a quick test could be game changer.
Texas at a macro level seems to be doing well and I truly hope people can keep it going by not being selfish assholes here.
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10 minutes ago, Lat22 said:
There is no such thing as "full safety". Never has been. Never will be.
Don't disagree with you at all. Other challenge is I don't even know if the government could force a vaccine on people that opt not to take. Take kids for example. The VAST majority (80% of people <30) are asymptomatic. How do you convince parents to vaccinate their children for this when it A) doesn't kill them B) shows no sign of hurting them (to date).
Counter this with polio which terrified people as it crippled their children (albeit in 1% of infections) but you could see a permanent disabling of an otherwise healthy child. There was a test run on the initial vaccine of 1.6 Million children in Canada to test its efficacy. Think about that in today's world. Never going to happen.
I am really curious to see how the vaccination process is handled. Will be a great case study down the line.
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8 minutes ago, utee94 said:
I mean, I don't think you need to "tinfoil up" to understand that she has a clear agenda, one that is NOT driven by public health or safety concerns. That's not an "oddly specific date." It's a "deliberately specific" date.
Overall I agree with you, this type of thing gives the hoaxers and deniers fuel, and we need the very real public health concerns to remain credible.
But at the same time, it's important to acknowledge that there are agenda-driven agents out there acting for political purposes that have nothing to do with public health. Ignoring that this is occurring, is merely the flipside of the same problem brought on by the hoaxers and denial crowd.
I agree that there is partisanship spilling into public policy across blue/red states/cities etc. Just fucking annoying and absolutely leads to worse outcomes as people get more and more frustrated. The complete lack of an end game here to me is biggest issue. Is it flattening the curve or total vaccination? Goal posts keep moving and it is not due to improved data/scientific findings
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2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:
Hospitalizations continue to fall. Lowest we've been since May. Doesn't look like there's a Labor Day spike incoming.
My only remaining concern is whether or not we have the discipline to keep mask orders in place. Someone on my neighborhood Facebook group said Comal County actually lifted the facemask mandate. Not sure if it's true or not, but either way people are going to start to get lax.
If you could guarantee me that mask mandates would stay in place and be enforced, I'd say open everything back up. All of it. I'm just not sure that's realistic. Seems there are a lot of stupid people out there that can't wait to rip the oppressive thin piece of fabric off their face despite there being mountains of evidence that they help tremendously with Covid. I feel like in certain areas when things open back up, that's going to signal to people that they can stop wearing masks and being considerate.
I think what is missing is clear "end game". It started with flattening the curve and not overwhelming hospitals. I think we really have a simple blueprint for that and it is leaving a mask mandate in place and reducing occupancy levels in bars/restaurants (or any indoor facility where large numbers can congregate).
Now though in many areas flattening the curve seems to be moving towards "full safety" via a vaccine. This is what I believe is enabling the large amount of pushback and frustration with local/state governments.
It is this lack of consistency and no semblance of something we are marching towards that is so annoying. Differing use of "success metrics" across counties/cities/states doesn't help either. Some use a hodgepodge of positivity rate (which is fucking worthless), hospitalizations (good), # of cases per some normalized population count (good), total cases (dumb) etc etc etc. Just no standards and no true end game is what creates this jailbreak that happens once people get a sniff of freedom.
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14 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:
Is that the really scary looking lady?Yes. She was recorded on a call with LA School Officials saying a couple of times that no restrictions would be lifted until post-election. Just an oddly specific date and one that lets those that want to tinfoil shit up do so.
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9 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:
https://fox17.com/news/local/covid-19-emails-from-nashville-mayors-office-show-disturbing-revelation
COVID-19 emails from Nashville mayor's office show disturbing revelation
The coronavirus cases on lower Broadway may have been so low that the mayor’s office and the Metro Health Department decided to keep it secret.
Emails between the mayor’s senior advisor and the health department reveal only a partial picture. But what they reveal is disturbing.
The discussion involves the low number of coronavirus cases emerging from bars and restaurants and how to handle that.
And most disturbingly, how to keep it from the public.
This and things like the Los Angeles Chief Medical Officer stating on a conference call that no restrictions will be lifted until after the election really add fuel to the fire of all of the CV19 conspiracy folks.
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Edited by BrazilHorn
Travis County yesterday at 142 cases so well within the 100-200 "new normal". One thing that is becoming really obvious is that the 10-19 age group is spiking. I know St. Andrews/Hyde Park etc are back in person as of a couple of weeks ago so I am assuming that this is a driver. The last two days of case count in this group is the biggest two day stretch to date and this group is on a 7 day run of being well over their normal share of cases. Good news is this should reduce hospitalization rate which should drop admits down. If you have kids in this age group (I have two) - make sure they are wearing masks & washing hands. (just checked only 5 admits yesterday)
Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total New Cases 9/16 vs 9/15 0 2 57 33 18 12 10 3 3 4 142 % of Daily Change 0.00% 1.41% 40.14% 23.24% 12.68% 8.45% 7.04% 2.11% 2.11% 2.82% % of Total Cases 0.51% 2.94% 8.87% 26.77% 21.24% 16.18% 11.45% 6.50% 3.19% 2.34% 28,103
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2 minutes ago, Lobo said:
For the umpteenth time, it has nothing to do with UT. It's a third party contract engaged by Texas-Exes. That's a private alumni association 501c organization that is not directly connected to the University of Texas. I'm as annoyed with it as all of you are, but this 40 for 40 solicitation campaign going on right now (almost about over actually) is NOT the same as the alumni directory bullshit. And the fundraising efforts of Texas Exes are for scholarships and are a completely separate entity from the University of Texas whose fundraising efforts are primarily revolving around G&A expenses, et. al. I hate the emails, I reported them all as spam today. The alumni directory is a separate issue and I'm not even eligible for it, I don't think. But a totally different deal. Not sure why it's so hard for folks to see that.
I think it’s due to fact that when you combine:Exes, Longhorn Foundation (athletics), athletics in general, McCombs(or whatever school your major was in), Blanton, UT general fund, Chancellor’s Circle, etc etc etc that is a fuck load of calls/emails that are all disjointed and separate from one another. Yet all using UT as leverage for $.
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6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:
Where do you see any evidence of shy Trump voters? Everything I have seen is that Trump voters are they opposite of shy. They're flamboyant in their deplorability.
If anything, I think there is evidence of there being a shy Biden vote (particularly among working-class rural women).
And for that reason, Greg Abbott and the rest of the statewide elected Republicans need to be praying for a Biden victory. If Trump were somehow to win, 2022 would be very bad for Texas Republicans.
I guess I’m going off signs in my neighborhood. 100% Biden. Admittedly I’m in Central Austin but It’s eerily reminiscent of last election. Only place I’ve seen Trump signs was at Horseshoe Bay.
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29 minutes ago, texasdago said:
What about the non-stop postcards to update your alumni info? This is your last chance!!!! No we really mean it!!! OK NOW WE MEAN IT!!! Okay... one more chance! Hey, did you see our last postcard?
This is the one that kills me. Why can't this be done online. I am not calling some BS 800# to give my info, but would be more likely to go online and provide some info.
Cannot even count how many of these letters/post cards I have received.
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1 hour ago, Rip76 said:
Wait until Covid gets mixed in with the flu during flu season.
check all the data from the southern hemisphere in regards to flu impact. It is dramatically reduced YoY.
Australia had roughly 61,000 flu cases in 2019, they had ~700 in 2020. Mask usage, washing hands, travel shutdowns and huge chunk of white collar workforce WFH are making the flu not nearly as big a concern as in normal years.
Seeing ranges of nearly non-existent this year in South Africa, down 84% in Australia, down 40% in Brazil (and Brazil gives zero fucks), Argentina down 64%.
I would be shocked if in the US we see a massive flu upswing in 2020 (compared to normal years).
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1 minute ago, utee94 said:
Don't know about "8 kids" but it's going to be based on % positives. This is what I've seen floating out there:
Really curious to see what they define "population positive rate". The population of kids on campus? Within a certain radius of campus? etc
For example in looking at UT if they try and bring in data from far west or north austin I don't see how that is at all representative of the UT population.
I can squint and see using positivity rate for JUST the team, as that is a fixed/static universe of people to measure against and they are being tested repeatedly.
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My worry re: polls & Trump voters is that no one will admit they voted for him. It is like a deep dark secret they won't own up to.
I think Trump voters are nervous about the shit they will rightfully get for putting this dipshit into office and never will admit they will fucking do it again in the upcoming election.
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Surly Megathread of destruction and doom. [BEWARE VERY DOOMY]
in Daily Texan
Have the protests stopped? Not seeing anything on news anymore about these. Went from nightly updates now to nothing. Just weirdly quiet.