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BrazilHorn

Certifiably Surly

Posts posted by BrazilHorn

  1. 60 cases yesterday for Travis County. Still trending higher on % basis for the 10-19 age group. Otherwise all in all a solid day for ye olde Travis County.

    Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
    New Cases 9/19 vs 9/18 -2 2 14 14 11 6 9 4 2 0 60
    % of Daily Change -3.33% 3.33% 23.33% 23.33% 18.33% 10.00% 15.00% 6.67% 3.33% 0.00%  
    % of Total Cases 0.50% 2.94% 9.01% 26.77% 21.19% 16.10% 11.41% 6.48% 3.22% 2.36%   28,432

    good news on admits front. Only 9 for Travis County yesterday.

  2. ·

    Edited by BrazilHorn
    Missed the goes on to win Heisman part.

    9 minutes ago, Doc Reeves said:

    And then goes on to win the Heisman. 
     

    let’s see off the top of my head: White, Crouch, Bradford... who am I missing?

    Maryland QB. Neuhisel Jr

  3. 160 cases yesterday in Travis County. ~4x more cases in the 10-19 range than normal load. 70+ groups are above their normal daily share as well. 20 hospital admits yesterday.

    Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
    New Cases 9/18 vs 9/17 1 3 39 44 24 11 11 10 10 7 160
    % of Daily Change 0.63% 1.88% 24.38% 27.50% 15.00% 6.88% 6.88% 6.25% 6.25% 4.38%  
    % of Total Cases 0.51% 2.94% 8.98% 26.78% 21.20% 16.11% 11.40% 6.48% 3.22% 2.37%   28,372
  4. 23 hours ago, Sbbruin said:

    We are going to watch this as a family.  The problem of electronic dependence was already a major issue for my kids.  The rona has started to create some real, visible issues.  

    Ditto. I hope they have a lengthy fucking section on "Fortnite" That fucking game is crack for my 11 year old.

  5. 17 hours ago, Bevo said:

    I haven't been keeping up with the numbers lately. Have we had an outbreak post Labor Day?

    I was expecting a spike after labor day and after school reopenings. If we aren't experiencing a huge increase in numbers after Labor Day and with schools opening somewhat, we aren't going to have one, at least in the areas that have already had large numbers of cases.

    It will stay at about this level until a vaccine is released. Many 100s of pages back, I anticipated an attenuated sine wave like decrease in numbers. I'm hopeful that we might even improve upon that.

    We have not had a material increase in cases since Labor Day (speaking for Travis County). In addition a heavier % of cases since Labor Day were from the 10-19 & 20-29 year old age groups which bode well for hospitalizations down the line. There was one day of >200 cases (but also 4 <100) since Labor Day but if you are thinking spike a la early July when shit hit the fan, nothing close to it.

    Need another week to go and want to keep tracking hospitalizations but all in all it looks like Labor Day thus far has been a non-event.

  6. 52 minutes ago, Lobo said:

    Your post made me think of Contract Tracing in 2020 America as basically a Cheech & Chong sketch.  

    "We think Dave may contracted the Covid-19 virus and possible exposed you.  May we test you?"

    "Who?  Dave?  Nah man, Dave's not here."  

    Disconcerting that we had an almost 6% positivity rate among students at the game. 

    Except for the fact that due to testing and not allowing them into the stadium if test was positive those 6% weren't at the game. (Provided you are speaking about UT game it was closer to 8% actually)

    I view as positive that these students were caught prior to being allowed to attend.  Given that universities have chosen to allow students on campus and in dorms etc there should be no shock that there will be cases. Ample testing and quarantining upon positive is best case in this situation. Sending positive kids home is worst. Interesting thing is for UT is that ~8% of kids who wanted to go to game tested positive but since June 7th of the 8,157 tests UT has administered to students/faculty/staff on campus only 1.9% have tested positive. Makes you wonder if the higher pos rate is due to the kids that want to go to games being more social etc (thus putting themselves at higher risk of catching CV19).

  7. 1 minute ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

    Just re grouping. I mean they've burned, and destroyed a lot of shit.  They need to resupply, and scout out new locations.

    I was curious if fires in oregon/wash state curtailed protests there as the ones in portland had gone on so long that it seemed random that they just stopped.

    I do believe that you can only protest so long before you are like "fuck it", I am just wondering if that is case here. 100+ days in portland is a long time to stay actively pissed off.

  8. 15 minutes ago, utee94 said:

    I know you're looking at this every day, can you tell if the UT cases are getting logged in to the Travis County numbers?  Like a while ago when there were some large clusters from West Campus, I think it was around 100 cases... can you tell if those made it into these numbers?

     

    the 78705 zip code shows 618 cases total and this largely encompasses UT (obviously some students can and do live of campus). From 8/30 - 9/12 UT reports that 127 students/faculty/staff tested positive via on campus testing. From the 10-19 & 20-29 age groups for that same period Travis county had an increase in 507 cases. Part of challenge is that UT did a big dump of positive cases via Austin Public Health dump to them and added them in so numbers get murky as if you look at their by day data you will see much larger spikes in count vs what they had on campus.

    So short answer long, I believe it is included, but also if person has a different home address then UT it is possible it counts against their count.

  9. 109 cases yesterday for Travis County so not a terrible day re: case count. One area that saw a drop in case % from being in the 30%+ range was the 10-19 age group. One negative for yesterday that 70 - 79 (~10% mortality) & 80+ (~20% mortality) saw an uptick (albeit on small numbers) so I would expect to see potentially 1-2 deaths from the 13 cases that were logged yesterday across these two groups. Hospital admits jumped back up to 17 yesterday ending the four day run of 9.25 admits/avg per day.

    Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
    New Cases 9/17 vs 9/16 0 6 15 32 21 14 5 3 6 7 109
    % of Daily Change 0.00% 5.50% 13.76% 29.36% 19.27% 12.84% 4.59% 2.75% 5.50% 6.42%  
    % of Total Cases 0.51% 2.95% 8.89% 26.78% 21.24% 16.17% 11.43% 6.48% 3.20% 2.36%   28,212
  10. 1 minute ago, Gap03 said:

    Am I the only one that thinks this is incredibly stupid timing?  I expect the impact of the schools re-opening here in Texas to start hitting in earnest about a month after the schools open.  Much like what we saw in Florida, many of the younger folks (party folks in Florida, students here in Texas) will end up being asymptomatic, so while we'll see a modest uptick in positive cases initially, it will take 3-4 weeks for the parents and older people to start catching it, at which point the cases will really start to tick up.  Hopefully increased mask-wearing will keep it from being June / July all over again, but letting people cram into restaurants / offices seems like pouring gas on a small brush fire.  If you look at the graphs at 91-divoc.com, you'll see that we're already starting to see things ramping up over the last few days - the weekly average cases/day had bottomed out at 2,682 three days ago, but has ramped up to 4,187 since.  Perhaps just a blip in the data, but I just don't understand the timing of this move.

    They are tracking the right thing which is hospitalizations. These are going down with the exceptions of a couple of counties. Bars remain closed. It is taking restaurants to 75% along with retail etc.

    In terms of offices, this moves does nothing to make large tech companies go back to work. Almost all of them are on record saying June of 2021 as earliest to return.

    Keeping bars closed is smart and this was the big nexus for Texas cases booming in the early summer. Data this far showing there hasn't been a post labor day spike either so there is good news on that front as well. This is going to come in ebbs/flows and hopefully people learned that if they fuck up again like last time things opened it'll be shut down once more.

  11. ·

    Edited by BrazilHorn

    18 minutes ago, PantsTent said:

    I know Austin/Travis reports total COVID hospitalizations and COVID new hospital admits.  Anybody know where the % of total hospitalizations for COVID is reported since that is the metric cited?

     

    https://dshs.texas.gov/coronavirus/additionaldata/

    Here is link. You will need to go into excel sheet and track. One thing I can tell you for Travis is roughly 15% of all cases result in hospitalization. (that is starting to trend down a bit as younger people are becoming bigger chunk of cases lately)

    You can see Austin has 94 people in beds with CV19 as of 9/16 vs a total bed population of 3,273 (not counting ICU). I got this by adding occupied & empty tabs for Austin. This puts Austin at 2.87% of beds occupied by CV19 patients. Bear in mind this is the Austin metro area. (which is how state looks at it).

    edit - Here is another link that shows ppt presentation of various metro areas and hospital capacity. This is from June 16th

  12. 16 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

    https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/gov-abbott-group-of-state-officials-to-hold-covid-19-press-conference-at-12-p-m-thursday/
     

    Won’t change the lawsuit, but will make a bunch happy:

    Some interesting things:

    • fuck you bars
    • nursing homes opening up if they have solid practices and no outbreaks
    • wear your make and wash your hands (hint: many won’t)
    • the influx of 15-minute tests will have a huge impact on schools and athletics 
    • they are following hospitalizations as an indicator

    I really think that Abbot is right in this case in terms of using hospitalizations as key measure. I also support bars staying closed. I do believe that places like Rainey St/6th St. etc could close to automotive traffic and offer outdoor seating and the city could leverage porta potties for bathrooms. (This is what Breckenridge did this summer) as a means to open bars up. Just don't let folks congregate indoors. I also like the nursing home ban if CV19 is evident. Given all the lab fuckery anything to allow for a quick test could be game changer.

    Texas at a macro level seems to be doing well and I truly hope people can keep it going by not being selfish assholes here.

  13. 10 minutes ago, Lat22 said:

    There is no such thing as "full safety".  Never has been.  Never will be.

    Don't disagree with you at all. Other challenge is I don't even know if the government could force a vaccine on people that opt not to take. Take kids for example. The VAST majority (80% of people <30) are asymptomatic. How do you convince parents to vaccinate their children for this when it A) doesn't kill them B) shows no sign of hurting them (to date).

    Counter this with polio which terrified people as it crippled their children (albeit in 1% of infections) but you could see a permanent disabling of an otherwise healthy child. There was a test run on the initial vaccine of 1.6 Million children in Canada to test its efficacy. Think about that in today's world. Never going to happen.

    I am really curious to see how the vaccination process is handled. Will be a great case study down the line.

  14. 8 minutes ago, utee94 said:

    I mean, I don't think you need to "tinfoil up" to understand that she has a clear agenda, one that is NOT driven by public health or safety concerns.  That's not an "oddly specific date."  It's a "deliberately specific" date.

    Overall I agree with you, this type of thing gives the hoaxers and deniers fuel, and we need the very real public health concerns to remain credible.

    But at the same time, it's important to acknowledge that there are agenda-driven agents out there acting for political purposes that have nothing to do with public health.  Ignoring that this is occurring, is merely the flipside of the same problem brought on by the hoaxers and denial crowd.

     

    I agree that there is partisanship spilling into public policy across blue/red states/cities etc. Just fucking annoying and absolutely leads to worse outcomes as people get more and more frustrated. The complete lack of an end game here to me is biggest issue. Is it flattening the curve or total vaccination? Goal posts keep moving and it is not due to improved data/scientific findings

  15. 2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

    Hospitalizations continue to fall. Lowest we've been since May. Doesn't look like there's a Labor Day spike incoming.

    My only remaining concern is whether or not we have the discipline to keep mask orders in place. Someone on my neighborhood Facebook group said Comal County actually lifted the facemask mandate. Not sure if it's true or not, but either way people are going to start to get lax. 

    If you could guarantee me that mask mandates would stay in place and be enforced, I'd say open everything back up. All of it. I'm just not sure that's realistic. Seems there are a lot of stupid people out there that can't wait to rip the oppressive thin piece of fabric off their face despite there being mountains of evidence that they help tremendously with Covid. I feel like in certain areas when things open back up, that's going to signal to people that they can stop wearing masks and being considerate. 

    I think what is missing is clear "end game". It started with flattening the curve and not overwhelming hospitals. I think we really have a simple blueprint for that and it is leaving a mask mandate in place and  reducing occupancy levels in bars/restaurants (or any indoor facility where large numbers can congregate).

    Now though in many areas flattening the curve seems to be moving towards "full safety" via a vaccine. This is what I believe is enabling the large amount of pushback and frustration with local/state governments.

    It is this lack of consistency and no semblance of something we are marching towards that is so annoying. Differing use of "success metrics" across counties/cities/states doesn't help either. Some use a hodgepodge of positivity rate (which is fucking worthless), hospitalizations (good), # of cases per some normalized population count (good), total cases (dumb) etc etc etc. Just no standards and no true end game is what creates this jailbreak that happens once people get a sniff of freedom.

Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business & Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Advertise... Tailgate Donations

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