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Posts posted by BrazilHorn
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My worry re: polls & Trump voters is that no one will admit they voted for him. It is like a deep dark secret they won't own up to.
I think Trump voters are nervous about the shit they will rightfully get for putting this dipshit into office and never will admit they will fucking do it again in the upcoming election.
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Just now, miguelito said:
Were they having a sword fight or what?
Double team/ South Austin's Mom / Double team
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12 hours ago, Message Board User said:
The credit for correcting all this state misinformation goes to a regular private citizen with (too much) time on his hands, did a bunch of his own research and calculations, and notified DSHS, whose been talking about all this fuckery for weeks:
But yeah, all summer long, the citizens of Texas have been fed a steady diet of bullshit regarding positivity rate.
This is why I have been saying positivity rate means jack shit. It is too easily skewed by public policy, reporting timelines etc. Track hospitalizations, that is what matters. You can also normalize for cases per 100,000 people or something. But getting spun up off of pos. rate is silly.
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Big day yesterday (189) for Travis county but still in the unofficial BrazilHorn 100-200 Buoyancy Range. that we have seemed to have moved into the past two weeks.
Very large uptick in the 10-19 cases with a whopping 30.27% of yesterday's numbers being in this range. (~3.7x their normal share of cases). Many private schools started in person last week so this could be rearing its head now. One side note is the past three days of hospital admits have been lowest three day run since the first week of June. One positive side effect of the new cases skewing younger is that these folks by and large don't end up in the hospital. Around half of the normal case load yesterday came from 60+ groups which bodes well for deaths down the line.
Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total New Cases 9/15 vs 9/14 1 5 56 58 29 10 17 6 3 0 185 % of Daily Change 0.54% 2.70% 30.27% 31.35% 15.68% 5.41% 9.19% 3.24% 1.62% 0.00% % of Total Cases 0.52% 2.95% 8.72% 26.78% 21.29% 16.22% 11.48% 6.52% 3.20% 2.34% 27,961 -
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How are Forde, Mandel et al manage to script this story? I am curious to see what Big10 uses as decision making criteria to come back.
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21 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:
Yeah, some of our friends have mentioned that either parents still don't realize it's not like the spring, or they can't help their kids complete the work, and the kids could get dinged big time.
There are a small number kids physically in the buildings, at least on some campuses, but they are basically doing the online work, with the assistance of whatever group normally does the after-school stuff. Kids of people who can't afford sitter or who have other issues making it hard, etc.
Oct. 5 we start back up, but limited to 25% (unless our covid numbers improve enough)
And they are moving forward on athletics.
There is ZERO reason to send your kids in person for the next 4 week period as all it will be is Wifi and babysitting. (except for Pre-K/K). They will be doing exact same thing they are doing at home today (Zoom/Laptop etc) just sitting on campus. If you don't need to have your kid go to school then don't.
I am all for sports happening as for many kids this is a great grounding/focus area. There are plenty of kids who stay focused on school/GPA etc as a means to stay eligible to play sports. I am biased as my 8th grader plays multiple sports and I want to see him play.
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Another really good day for Travis County yesterday with 75 cases. Couple of fallouts in the <1 & >80 cohorts (this is happening weekly now as TCAD changes numbers fairly regularly). Again seeing over representation in the 10-19 age group compared to their normal share of cases. 11 new admits yesterday (10 the day prior).
Good news based on symptom timelines. Outside of that one bump back to 218 cases four days ago there doesn't appear to be a spike related to Labor Day.
Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total New Cases 9/14 vs 9/13 -1 3 12 15 10 16 14 7 0 -1 75 % of Daily Change -1.33% 4.00% 16.00% 20.00% 13.33% 21.33% 18.67% 9.33% 0.00% -1.33% % of Total Cases 0.51% 2.95% 8.57% 26.75% 21.32% 16.29% 11.49% 6.54% 3.21% 2.35% 27,776 -
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Do the Giants think they have 15mins vs the around 5mins when drive started?
This drive has been at the “slow walk in the park” lvl of urgency for a team down 16 with now 2mins left.
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Good news on mortality for Travis County. They finally unborked their mortality tracker (had been pointing to single gender vs all across multiple categories).
Still seeing ~82% of all deaths from 60 years old and up. Encouraging thing is the last two weeks we have only seen 22 deaths in total which is down by ~50% from prior couple of weeks and even more than that from Mid July onwards. All in all things are moving in right direction. Mortality rates are improving even at the 80yo+ levels (down below 20% for 1st time in a long time)
Kids still VERY unlikely to die from this disease. 0% for 1-9 & 0.04% for 10-19 (since March for Travis County). Again there is gap between 8/29 & 9/12 due to TCAD issues. Any numbers for 9/12 are over a 2 week period vs 1 week.
10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total Deaths WoW Change W/E 7/11 0 3 4 7 17 34 45 58 168 W/E 7/18 0 2 4 9 21 37 55 75 203 35 W/E 7/25 0 2 4 10 27 47 58 93 241 38 W/E 8/1 0 2 6 11 35 56 63 103 276 35 W/E 8/8 1 2 6 11 36 64 65 113 298 22 W/E 8/15 1 2 6 13 39 74 77 124 336 38 W/E 8/22 1 2 6 14 43 78 84 130 358 22 W/E 8/29 1 2 7 14 46 80 93 138 381 23 W/E 9/12 1 2 7 15 47 88 98 145 403 22 Total Cases as of 9/12 2,321 7,374 5,903 4,502 3,170 1,807 890 654 Mortality Rate as of 9/12 0.04% 0.03% 0.10% 0.31% 1.36% 4.32% 9.44% 19.88% -
7 minutes ago, ztejas said:
When he's not playing do I ask? Yeah, usually because I'm wondering why he's not fucking playing.
Also, can't help but wonder if all of the ridiculous weight lifting he's been doing for years contributes to his injuries. But that's just the cynic in me.
I think this is a huge factor in terms of stiffening/tightening his joints/ligaments/tendons etc. He absolutely reminds me of Kirk Johnson. Another ridiculously fit/muscle bound RB that couldn't ever stay healthy. Get Whittington out of the weight room and into a yoga studio. His injuries aren't from hits they are from cuts/plants etc.
Wish him the best as he seems to be so explosive (and I hate to see any player hurt) and would be huge addition on the field, but current course and speed you cannot count on him to stay healthy.
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Travis County saw the biggest day in 10-19 since Mind July with 48 cases and a whopping 39.02% share of daily cases (there were 123 cases yesterday (high for a Sunday)).
A number of private schools in Austin went to in person schooling this past week so I am wondering if that is what we are seeing (along with Freshmen at UT).
Nice low numbers in the 60+ categories which will help with hospitalizations as well the combined 10-19 & 20 - 29 being ~73% of all cases yesterday (vs their normal share of ~34%). 10 new admits in hospital yesterday for those of you holding out hopes AISD plays fall sports.
Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total New Cases 9/13 vs 9/12 0 3 48 42 10 7 8 3 1 1 123 % of Daily Change 0.00% 2.44% 39.02% 34.15% 8.13% 5.69% 6.50% 2.44% 0.81% 0.81% % of Total Cases 0.52% 2.95% 8.55% 26.77% 21.35% 16.28% 11.47% 6.53% 3.22% 2.36% 27,701 -
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Have first tournament for my boys this weekend. One is 13 playing on a 14u team other is on 11u. Looking forward to seeing them in action for first time since June for younger and March for older.
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Nice low case numbers yesterday in Travis County with only 53 cases. still high % wise in the 10-19 age group but based off low count so still a small # of cases there.
Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total New Cases 9/12 vs 9/11 2 4 8 10 15 9 3 0 2 0 53 % of Daily Change 3.77% 7.55% 15.09% 18.87% 28.30% 16.98% 5.66% 0.00% 3.77% 0.00% % of Total Cases 0.52% 2.95% 8.42% 26.74% 21.40% 16.32% 11.49% 6.55% 3.23% 2.37% 27,578 -
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Good to see a good, solid ass kicking.
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Hopefully ISU & KSU losing gets Herman and team focused on beating UTEP vs getting cute and sloppy as they have often done in games they should easily win.
Listening to FUPM talk right now and it is fucking nails on a chalkboard for me.
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3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:
AISD has very few kids and staff in physical schools. And just got the email yesterday that the phase-in in October will be very slow. They are going the 25% occupancy route it sounds like.
I'm more worried about UT. As long as they don't cause an increase in hospitalizations, we can get through this.
Good point re: AISD ( I think O'Henry had 5 kids in attendance eg). Will be interesting to see where it falls though. Fingers crossed we will be good in regards to hospitalizations & UT as there have been as of last week no hospitalizations across a large sample of college students returning this fall.
Travis had like 18 admits I believe yesterday still well over the 10 & under needed to move to Stage 2.
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101 cases in Austin yesterday and show data movement as tends to happen sometimes (curse you data entry clerk). Still higher school age cases as a % of yesterday's cases vs their normal representation. AISD should have turned in 1st week CV19 positives so it will be interesting to see once this becomes available.
Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total New Cases 9/11 vs 9/10 -1 2 16 40 23 17 1 4 1 -2 101 % of Daily Change -0.99% 1.98% 15.84% 39.60% 22.77% 16.83% 0.99% 3.96% 0.99% -1.98% % of Total Cases 0.52% 2.94% 8.40% 26.75% 21.39% 16.32% 11.51% 6.56% 3.23% 2.38% 27,525 -
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You could do:
SurlyHorns: X # of Days Covid Free
SurlyHorns: Caring for player safety since 2020
SurlyHorns: Now 37% fewer thots
SurlyHorns: What in the actual fuck?
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Worst day in a while as Travis County came in at 218 cases yesterday. Hopefully this isn't a sign of early Labor Day Weekend impact.
Big spikes in 20-29 (possibly UT related) with 71 cases and unfortunately 80+ with 7. For those 80+ it is a hair over 20% mortality rate so anytime there is a spike there it is not a good day.
Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total New Cases 9/10 vs 9/9 2 8 27 71 50 27 18 9 -1 7 218 % of Daily Change 0.92% 3.67% 12.39% 32.57% 22.94% 12.39% 8.26% 4.13% -0.46% 3.21% % of Total Cases 0.52% 2.94% 8.38% 26.71% 21.39% 16.32% 11.54% 6.57% 3.23% 2.39% 27,424 -
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WTF is happening to this thread? Did everyone run out of bourbon at the exact same time, get the "DTs" and start pounding away on their keyboards? Stop all the political back and forth you fuckwits. Take that shit to CR and bomb away.
We should be happy right now. Numbers are moving in right direction. We are (speaking for Travis County) where we were three months ago almost to the day in terms of # hospitalized, # of new hospital admits, daily cases etc.
This is great fucking news. It happened because the bars were shut down, people put their masks back on and everyone chilled the fuck out for a couple of months.
We had a week in July where over 70 people a day in Travis county were being admitted to the hospital for CV19. Shit was borked.
Now that Travis has shown it knows how to manage its shit, I believe you can open things up slowly (bars that is). I would follow the "Breckenridge" model. Close 6th street & Rainey Street etc to car traffic. Put tables outdoors in front of the bars, enforce social distancing in bars dramatically and enforce/fine the shit out of bars that go over occupancy. Do this for a bit and see if people can keep it together. This isn't rocket science. We have been seeing what causes peaks and valleys in virus cases since March:
If you cram lots of people in an enclosed space and they aren't wearing masks: bars/nursing homes/cruise ships eg you WILL get an increase in CV19 infections, these infected people will go home and give it to others. Those others will.....You get it. This isn't that hard a concept.
I am not worried about "flooding" the hospitals here in Travis county. I am worried about moving back to a more restrictive Stage. I have enjoyed going to yoga class again, I have enjoyed being able to eat out again, I enjoyed going to Austin Beerworks this past weekend. I don't want a bunch of fucktards to mess it up. I also want to see my 8th grader play football this fall. If Austin can hold its shit together that may happen.
Everyone crack open a beverage, chill the fuck out and be happy that Travis county seems to be getting its arms around this (again)
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1 hour ago, B00M said:
And too fucking meaningless to justify the effort. Maybe this is the beginning of the end of people talking about testing positivity rates.
I hope so. Absolutely meaningless metric in terms of basing opening/closing things down off of. Count cases/100,000 people or hospitalizations etc. PR sucks.
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15 hours ago, Texaus said:
Noticed thujone’s book showed up in my kindle library today. I forgot I preordered it a long time ago.
Same. Looking forward to checking it out.
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4 minutes ago, victory88 said:
Yeah, it was on LHN. They'll have it replaying I'm sure. Compare how our team looks and how they look in the drills vs the aggy cbs video showing highlights of their training camp. There's a reason aggy doesn't want to play us right now. We look leagues better than them. The fact they people have them ranked ahead of us is laughable. We'd wipe the floor with them.
Couple of things.
- Herman has a fantastic support staff in place. I don't think Mack or Charlie ever cared to fully maximize the resources at Texas. Herman has. They mentioned others schools across the country are calling Texas on how to handle Covid-19. Players are getting tested 3 times a week. We can test them every day if we can. Only other organization testing more than Texas football is the NBA.
- They showed a few clips of special teams coaching. Boulware knows his shit. Glad he's running special teams.
- QBs look fucking good. Hudson Card is going to start the next 3 years. I have 0 doubt about this. He's clearly a better passer than JQJ and Thompson and he was making his reads and getting the ball out quicker than Sam in some of the clips where they are training. You can tell he's been coached up his whole life. His footwork and mechanics are well ahead of most freshman. He's also spent time in the gym and looks like he belongs out there.
- This is a mature team that is 100% bought in. The leaders on this team are the best players and the hardest workers. That permeates through to the rest of the team.
- I hate to say this... Malcolm Epps looked good in a few clips. They showed his 2 TD catches in the 1st scrimmage. Hopefully he's bought into TE and hopefully we use him to his strengths. He's got insane height and length and he has great hands. He just needs to realize he's 6'6 and fucking get physical and block.
- They had a few clips of Troy Omerie. He's a physical specimen. How the fuck did we shit on him all through his recruitment. Sucks that we lost him because he looks like the best WR on the team and it's not close. He made some fucking jaw dropping catches. Tarik Black looks good too. That was a fantastic pick up by the staff.
Just a few things I noticed from the all-access episode.
They also gave Overshown a real platform and he read his entire "Am I next" tweet and did a very nice job. Considering the ebbs and flows with him I thought that was a really smart job by Herman to have this happen as you hope it really focuses him. They showed Ossai from his ESPN panel and he is just a really impressive young man. Very insightful and mature beyond his years.
I concur re: Boulware, where he was showing the blockers crossing their legs vs shuffling was really good and calling players out the right way to show examples of what worked and didn't work in same play was good stuff.
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3 minutes ago, TexasFan21 said:
uh oh
They are already in the COA case counts so it doesn't impact anything from that perspective. I will be curious as UT just had to add 109 cases back into their data set from students and staff that had tested positive outside of the UT testing process but then in turn did not self-report as asked to UT.
UT is now up to a total since March of 611 students and 181 faculty/staff that have been CV19 positive.
2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]
in Cloak Room
Posted
Could be another bogeyman, just makes me nervous.