Posts posted by BrazilHorn
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8 minutes ago, utee94 said:
I mean, I don't think you need to "tinfoil up" to understand that she has a clear agenda, one that is NOT driven by public health or safety concerns. That's not an "oddly specific date." It's a "deliberately specific" date.
Overall I agree with you, this type of thing gives the hoaxers and deniers fuel, and we need the very real public health concerns to remain credible.
But at the same time, it's important to acknowledge that there are agenda-driven agents out there acting for political purposes that have nothing to do with public health. Ignoring that this is occurring, is merely the flipside of the same problem brought on by the hoaxers and denial crowd.
I agree that there is partisanship spilling into public policy across blue/red states/cities etc. Just fucking annoying and absolutely leads to worse outcomes as people get more and more frustrated. The complete lack of an end game here to me is biggest issue. Is it flattening the curve or total vaccination? Goal posts keep moving and it is not due to improved data/scientific findings
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2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:
Hospitalizations continue to fall. Lowest we've been since May. Doesn't look like there's a Labor Day spike incoming.
My only remaining concern is whether or not we have the discipline to keep mask orders in place. Someone on my neighborhood Facebook group said Comal County actually lifted the facemask mandate. Not sure if it's true or not, but either way people are going to start to get lax.
If you could guarantee me that mask mandates would stay in place and be enforced, I'd say open everything back up. All of it. I'm just not sure that's realistic. Seems there are a lot of stupid people out there that can't wait to rip the oppressive thin piece of fabric off their face despite there being mountains of evidence that they help tremendously with Covid. I feel like in certain areas when things open back up, that's going to signal to people that they can stop wearing masks and being considerate.
I think what is missing is clear "end game". It started with flattening the curve and not overwhelming hospitals. I think we really have a simple blueprint for that and it is leaving a mask mandate in place and reducing occupancy levels in bars/restaurants (or any indoor facility where large numbers can congregate).
Now though in many areas flattening the curve seems to be moving towards "full safety" via a vaccine. This is what I believe is enabling the large amount of pushback and frustration with local/state governments.
It is this lack of consistency and no semblance of something we are marching towards that is so annoying. Differing use of "success metrics" across counties/cities/states doesn't help either. Some use a hodgepodge of positivity rate (which is fucking worthless), hospitalizations (good), # of cases per some normalized population count (good), total cases (dumb) etc etc etc. Just no standards and no true end game is what creates this jailbreak that happens once people get a sniff of freedom.
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14 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:
Is that the really scary looking lady?Yes. She was recorded on a call with LA School Officials saying a couple of times that no restrictions would be lifted until post-election. Just an oddly specific date and one that lets those that want to tinfoil shit up do so.
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9 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:
https://fox17.com/news/local/covid-19-emails-from-nashville-mayors-office-show-disturbing-revelation
COVID-19 emails from Nashville mayor's office show disturbing revelation
The coronavirus cases on lower Broadway may have been so low that the mayor’s office and the Metro Health Department decided to keep it secret.
Emails between the mayor’s senior advisor and the health department reveal only a partial picture. But what they reveal is disturbing.
The discussion involves the low number of coronavirus cases emerging from bars and restaurants and how to handle that.
And most disturbingly, how to keep it from the public.
This and things like the Los Angeles Chief Medical Officer stating on a conference call that no restrictions will be lifted until after the election really add fuel to the fire of all of the CV19 conspiracy folks.
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Edited by BrazilHorn
Travis County yesterday at 142 cases so well within the 100-200 "new normal". One thing that is becoming really obvious is that the 10-19 age group is spiking. I know St. Andrews/Hyde Park etc are back in person as of a couple of weeks ago so I am assuming that this is a driver. The last two days of case count in this group is the biggest two day stretch to date and this group is on a 7 day run of being well over their normal share of cases. Good news is this should reduce hospitalization rate which should drop admits down. If you have kids in this age group (I have two) - make sure they are wearing masks & washing hands. (just checked only 5 admits yesterday)
Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total New Cases 9/16 vs 9/15 0 2 57 33 18 12 10 3 3 4 142 % of Daily Change 0.00% 1.41% 40.14% 23.24% 12.68% 8.45% 7.04% 2.11% 2.11% 2.82% % of Total Cases 0.51% 2.94% 8.87% 26.77% 21.24% 16.18% 11.45% 6.50% 3.19% 2.34% 28,103
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2 minutes ago, Lobo said:
For the umpteenth time, it has nothing to do with UT. It's a third party contract engaged by Texas-Exes. That's a private alumni association 501c organization that is not directly connected to the University of Texas. I'm as annoyed with it as all of you are, but this 40 for 40 solicitation campaign going on right now (almost about over actually) is NOT the same as the alumni directory bullshit. And the fundraising efforts of Texas Exes are for scholarships and are a completely separate entity from the University of Texas whose fundraising efforts are primarily revolving around G&A expenses, et. al. I hate the emails, I reported them all as spam today. The alumni directory is a separate issue and I'm not even eligible for it, I don't think. But a totally different deal. Not sure why it's so hard for folks to see that.
I think it’s due to fact that when you combine:Exes, Longhorn Foundation (athletics), athletics in general, McCombs(or whatever school your major was in), Blanton, UT general fund, Chancellor’s Circle, etc etc etc that is a fuck load of calls/emails that are all disjointed and separate from one another. Yet all using UT as leverage for $.
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6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:
Where do you see any evidence of shy Trump voters? Everything I have seen is that Trump voters are they opposite of shy. They're flamboyant in their deplorability.
If anything, I think there is evidence of there being a shy Biden vote (particularly among working-class rural women).
And for that reason, Greg Abbott and the rest of the statewide elected Republicans need to be praying for a Biden victory. If Trump were somehow to win, 2022 would be very bad for Texas Republicans.
I guess I’m going off signs in my neighborhood. 100% Biden. Admittedly I’m in Central Austin but It’s eerily reminiscent of last election. Only place I’ve seen Trump signs was at Horseshoe Bay.
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29 minutes ago, texasdago said:
What about the non-stop postcards to update your alumni info? This is your last chance!!!! No we really mean it!!! OK NOW WE MEAN IT!!! Okay... one more chance! Hey, did you see our last postcard?
This is the one that kills me. Why can't this be done online. I am not calling some BS 800# to give my info, but would be more likely to go online and provide some info.
Cannot even count how many of these letters/post cards I have received.
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1 hour ago, Rip76 said:
Wait until Covid gets mixed in with the flu during flu season.
check all the data from the southern hemisphere in regards to flu impact. It is dramatically reduced YoY.
Australia had roughly 61,000 flu cases in 2019, they had ~700 in 2020. Mask usage, washing hands, travel shutdowns and huge chunk of white collar workforce WFH are making the flu not nearly as big a concern as in normal years.
Seeing ranges of nearly non-existent this year in South Africa, down 84% in Australia, down 40% in Brazil (and Brazil gives zero fucks), Argentina down 64%.
I would be shocked if in the US we see a massive flu upswing in 2020 (compared to normal years).
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1 minute ago, utee94 said:
Don't know about "8 kids" but it's going to be based on % positives. This is what I've seen floating out there:
Really curious to see what they define "population positive rate". The population of kids on campus? Within a certain radius of campus? etc
For example in looking at UT if they try and bring in data from far west or north austin I don't see how that is at all representative of the UT population.
I can squint and see using positivity rate for JUST the team, as that is a fixed/static universe of people to measure against and they are being tested repeatedly.
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My worry re: polls & Trump voters is that no one will admit they voted for him. It is like a deep dark secret they won't own up to.
I think Trump voters are nervous about the shit they will rightfully get for putting this dipshit into office and never will admit they will fucking do it again in the upcoming election.
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12 hours ago, Message Board User said:
The credit for correcting all this state misinformation goes to a regular private citizen with (too much) time on his hands, did a bunch of his own research and calculations, and notified DSHS, whose been talking about all this fuckery for weeks:
But yeah, all summer long, the citizens of Texas have been fed a steady diet of bullshit regarding positivity rate.
This is why I have been saying positivity rate means jack shit. It is too easily skewed by public policy, reporting timelines etc. Track hospitalizations, that is what matters. You can also normalize for cases per 100,000 people or something. But getting spun up off of pos. rate is silly.
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Big day yesterday (189) for Travis county but still in the unofficial BrazilHorn 100-200 Buoyancy Range. that we have seemed to have moved into the past two weeks.
Very large uptick in the 10-19 cases with a whopping 30.27% of yesterday's numbers being in this range. (~3.7x their normal share of cases). Many private schools started in person last week so this could be rearing its head now. One side note is the past three days of hospital admits have been lowest three day run since the first week of June. One positive side effect of the new cases skewing younger is that these folks by and large don't end up in the hospital. Around half of the normal case load yesterday came from 60+ groups which bodes well for deaths down the line.
Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total New Cases 9/15 vs 9/14 1 5 56 58 29 10 17 6 3 0 185 % of Daily Change 0.54% 2.70% 30.27% 31.35% 15.68% 5.41% 9.19% 3.24% 1.62% 0.00% % of Total Cases 0.52% 2.95% 8.72% 26.78% 21.29% 16.22% 11.48% 6.52% 3.20% 2.34% 27,961 -
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21 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:
Yeah, some of our friends have mentioned that either parents still don't realize it's not like the spring, or they can't help their kids complete the work, and the kids could get dinged big time.
There are a small number kids physically in the buildings, at least on some campuses, but they are basically doing the online work, with the assistance of whatever group normally does the after-school stuff. Kids of people who can't afford sitter or who have other issues making it hard, etc.
Oct. 5 we start back up, but limited to 25% (unless our covid numbers improve enough)
And they are moving forward on athletics.
There is ZERO reason to send your kids in person for the next 4 week period as all it will be is Wifi and babysitting. (except for Pre-K/K). They will be doing exact same thing they are doing at home today (Zoom/Laptop etc) just sitting on campus. If you don't need to have your kid go to school then don't.
I am all for sports happening as for many kids this is a great grounding/focus area. There are plenty of kids who stay focused on school/GPA etc as a means to stay eligible to play sports. I am biased as my 8th grader plays multiple sports and I want to see him play.
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Another really good day for Travis County yesterday with 75 cases. Couple of fallouts in the <1 & >80 cohorts (this is happening weekly now as TCAD changes numbers fairly regularly). Again seeing over representation in the 10-19 age group compared to their normal share of cases. 11 new admits yesterday (10 the day prior).
Good news based on symptom timelines. Outside of that one bump back to 218 cases four days ago there doesn't appear to be a spike related to Labor Day.
Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total New Cases 9/14 vs 9/13 -1 3 12 15 10 16 14 7 0 -1 75 % of Daily Change -1.33% 4.00% 16.00% 20.00% 13.33% 21.33% 18.67% 9.33% 0.00% -1.33% % of Total Cases 0.51% 2.95% 8.57% 26.75% 21.32% 16.29% 11.49% 6.54% 3.21% 2.35% 27,776 -
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Good news on mortality for Travis County. They finally unborked their mortality tracker (had been pointing to single gender vs all across multiple categories).
Still seeing ~82% of all deaths from 60 years old and up. Encouraging thing is the last two weeks we have only seen 22 deaths in total which is down by ~50% from prior couple of weeks and even more than that from Mid July onwards. All in all things are moving in right direction. Mortality rates are improving even at the 80yo+ levels (down below 20% for 1st time in a long time)
Kids still VERY unlikely to die from this disease. 0% for 1-9 & 0.04% for 10-19 (since March for Travis County). Again there is gap between 8/29 & 9/12 due to TCAD issues. Any numbers for 9/12 are over a 2 week period vs 1 week.
10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total Deaths WoW Change W/E 7/11 0 3 4 7 17 34 45 58 168 W/E 7/18 0 2 4 9 21 37 55 75 203 35 W/E 7/25 0 2 4 10 27 47 58 93 241 38 W/E 8/1 0 2 6 11 35 56 63 103 276 35 W/E 8/8 1 2 6 11 36 64 65 113 298 22 W/E 8/15 1 2 6 13 39 74 77 124 336 38 W/E 8/22 1 2 6 14 43 78 84 130 358 22 W/E 8/29 1 2 7 14 46 80 93 138 381 23 W/E 9/12 1 2 7 15 47 88 98 145 403 22 Total Cases as of 9/12 2,321 7,374 5,903 4,502 3,170 1,807 890 654 Mortality Rate as of 9/12 0.04% 0.03% 0.10% 0.31% 1.36% 4.32% 9.44% 19.88% -
7 minutes ago, ztejas said:
When he's not playing do I ask? Yeah, usually because I'm wondering why he's not fucking playing.
Also, can't help but wonder if all of the ridiculous weight lifting he's been doing for years contributes to his injuries. But that's just the cynic in me.
I think this is a huge factor in terms of stiffening/tightening his joints/ligaments/tendons etc. He absolutely reminds me of Kirk Johnson. Another ridiculously fit/muscle bound RB that couldn't ever stay healthy. Get Whittington out of the weight room and into a yoga studio. His injuries aren't from hits they are from cuts/plants etc.
Wish him the best as he seems to be so explosive (and I hate to see any player hurt) and would be huge addition on the field, but current course and speed you cannot count on him to stay healthy.
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Travis County saw the biggest day in 10-19 since Mind July with 48 cases and a whopping 39.02% share of daily cases (there were 123 cases yesterday (high for a Sunday)).
A number of private schools in Austin went to in person schooling this past week so I am wondering if that is what we are seeing (along with Freshmen at UT).
Nice low numbers in the 60+ categories which will help with hospitalizations as well the combined 10-19 & 20 - 29 being ~73% of all cases yesterday (vs their normal share of ~34%). 10 new admits in hospital yesterday for those of you holding out hopes AISD plays fall sports.
Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total New Cases 9/13 vs 9/12 0 3 48 42 10 7 8 3 1 1 123 % of Daily Change 0.00% 2.44% 39.02% 34.15% 8.13% 5.69% 6.50% 2.44% 0.81% 0.81% % of Total Cases 0.52% 2.95% 8.55% 26.77% 21.35% 16.28% 11.47% 6.53% 3.22% 2.36% 27,701
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
in Cloak Room
Don't disagree with you at all. Other challenge is I don't even know if the government could force a vaccine on people that opt not to take. Take kids for example. The VAST majority (80% of people <30) are asymptomatic. How do you convince parents to vaccinate their children for this when it A) doesn't kill them B) shows no sign of hurting them (to date).
Counter this with polio which terrified people as it crippled their children (albeit in 1% of infections) but you could see a permanent disabling of an otherwise healthy child. There was a test run on the initial vaccine of 1.6 Million children in Canada to test its efficacy. Think about that in today's world. Never going to happen.
I am really curious to see how the vaccination process is handled. Will be a great case study down the line.