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elfenix

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Posts posted by elfenix

  1. you talked to jim goddamn motherfucking hall?!?!?!  holy fuck!

     

     

    like, if y'all don't know what i'm on about, those are arguably the most revolutionary race cars ever.  aerodynamic downforce was invented by a couple of guys in midland goddamn texas.  not a prancing horse in maranello.  not some antipodean in the british midlands.  not some midwestern corn salesman.  no, a couple of oilmen in texas. 

    • Like 3
  2. 43 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

     

    and you've got 3 men who way over 200 lbs a piece, a woman, who's a little plump, scotch girl, and a daughter, who's 13, and you're gonna take a 12 ounce roll of sausage and a couple dozen eggs and feed that? it ain't gonna work.

     

    jimmie dean sausage for southern people to eat with their breakfast, with their fried eggs and their t-bone steaks

     

    goddamn how much do they eat?

     

    "fuck i'm gonna eat goddamnit" is the subtitle of the steel shank thread

    • Hook 'Em 1
  3. Maldives. They may be gone within decades. I watched the water erode the beach in real time. 
    Cue the complaints about elites forcing normies/poors on driving vacations while the ridiculously wealthy and connected fly private to exotic locations.

    Always amused by people on the Internet getting upset that the wealthy and connected do wealthy and connected things while normies/poors can't do wealthy and connected things because they're not wealthy and connected.
  4. I am watching the utterly shameful display by GOP leadership today and their pitiful and disgusting linkage of whether Ukrainians get to survive or not to how bad Mexicans and Guatemalans are.  I’m watching the completely pathetic sight of the leader of the free world begging these creatures for .33 percent of GDP so the United States of Fucking America can beat Russia on the battlefield without firing a shot, and how happy they are to get this moment. 
     
    America is fucked, y’all.  We are used to high-flown rhetoric, but it is not inaccurate to call this fight the defining moment of a generation.  We have the choice to show that the American century can continue, that the Free World is stronger than awful and absurd strongman sanctuaries that make no pretense of having any sort of ethos beyond repression.
    And we’re going to lose. We’ve chosen to lose as a nation. Not just the array of clown-ass GOP voters, even those who say they support aid but haven’t made a bit of noise about it. Who will poll the lever with a shiteating grin, knowing that we are going to let Russia win, but maybe we will own some libs. We also have the milquetoast D leadership that had every chance to win this thing but erred on the side of escalation management and the absurdly facile belief that on this issue they could get the GOP to do the right thing.  

    Trump may be right about one thing, we’re tired of winning. As a country, we’re tired of winning. Our best and brightest are paralyzed by fears and nuance and our stupidest and worst are the boldest and most willing to play for keeps. And so we’re going to lose. We got tired of winning, and so like a stupid and spoiled child who breaks his toy just because he got bored with it, we  are taking a hammer to the world we built just for the smug satisfaction of it. And the people who can stop it are watching and tutting, that Jimmy simply mustn’t do that, isn’t he naughty. 
     
    Fuck this. 
    Can't rep this enough.
    • Like 1
  5. 15 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

    @elfenix Can you talk more about the juxtaposition of charts 1 and 2 in your post?

    Delinquencies are up... but the balance that's delinquent is significantly smaller?

    source pdf: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/householdcredit/data/pdf/HHDC_2023Q3

    it's % of the balance, not absolute terms.  and that's all debts, not just credit cards.  total debt is up (again, not inflation adjusted) (note that 18-29 year olds don't have that much debt, so despite having the highest delinquency rates in almost every category it doesn't add up to much):

     

    image.png.76bde50688533a399062c850929cd8ca.png

    mortgage debt is the biggest chunk of debt for every age group, with auto loans looking like they're second for those over 40, student loans second for those below.  people are relatively on time with their mortgage and student loan payments which is why the percent balance 90 days late is low.

    % of balance in serious delinquency for mortgages is coming up off the floor but is still lower than it was in the before times.

    image.png.c5a3c3e6d9c93334019adc75410988f1.png

    student loan serious delinquencies are basically 0 right now due to the pause, but had been running ~10% of balance (it was the one loan type where 18-29 was actually the least delinquent)

    image.png.916f427e2e4eaacca8a89c526b300e62.png

    auto loan delinquencies are not good for the under 40 crowd, about average for the over 40 crowd. 

    image.png.16ebaf625eb27c349a0875bbf1973349.png

     

    foreclosures and bankruptcies are also running about half of what they were in the before times. 

     

    mortgage delinquencies going above ~1.5%, maybe 1.75% is when i'd start being concerned.

    • Hook 'Em 2
  6. 15 hours ago, HiggyBaby said:

    SIAP, I don’t lurk over here often but this seems like the right thread. Was having a conversation with a mortgage lender buddy and brought up business. It’s obviously down but he says there’s a steady flow of customers cashing out at a higher interest rate just to get out from their credit card debt. I had to look up the stats and it’s crazy since the end of Covid.

    https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/credit-card-debt-statistics/

    95b1b09c0bcb9650633272b58439c48f.jpg

    the credit card balance statistic isn't what most people seem to think it is.  it's the statement balance, rather than a carried balance.  they actually can't tell how much is carried balance.  i'm not sure how seasonally adjusted that data is when you can literally see the seasonality in the sawtooth of the graph. 

    image.png.b5e9dfae59368a42ff3767908f6fde3c.png 

    https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr479_faq.pdf

    so it includes @Skipper's tickets unless he pays his card off before the statement. 

    another chunk is subject of the thread.  this data isn't adjusted for inflation.

    delinquency rates are more interesting.

    not trending in the right direction but still below where we were prior to great recession:

    image.png.485efe32082c63825d636e2f53e8158c.png

    as a percent of balance in serious delinquency the national average is about as low as its ever been

    image.thumb.png.d771495001277cf037416024d3d52555.png

    i thought this was kinda interesting.  debt collection by third parties has basically died

    image.thumb.png.fe467be1c8dcf9c2c7f5dda3b573f3a1.png

    to some extent some of this is that we were at historic lows for delinquencies as so pretty much nowhere to go but up.

    • Hook 'Em 8
    • Like 1
  7. On 12/10/2023 at 1:46 AM, Superhero said:

    When I scroll down on the mouse wheel and the screen scrolls up.

    Who are these animals who use it this way?

     

    those people should be hauled in for questioning. 

     

    On 12/10/2023 at 6:43 AM, slorch said:

     

    to clarify- when I roll the wheel downwards, or towards my wrist, the text on the screen goes upward.  That's from years of videogames predating the wheel( on the mouse.)

    that's scrolling down.  because your view is now further down the document. 

  8. "The consumer price index, a closely watched inflation gauge, increased 0.1% in November, and was up 3.1% from a year ago, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. "

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/12/cpi-inflation-report-november-2023.html



    the index is at 307.051. 6 months ago it was 304.127. that's an increase of just less than 1% over six months so ~2% annualized. may-june was nearly a whole index point so over the last 5 months the increase is miniscule, just 0.64%, or a bit over 1.5% annualized.

  9. 55 minutes ago, elfenix said:

    no, that's not idiocy and malpractice.  the problem with a "reasonable" standard is that kenny P can get some MAGA doctor to testify that in his expert opinion it was not reasonable and then you have a fucking jury question deciding whether a doctor goes to jail and loses their license.  that's why the petition over and over again uses "good faith" because that's a much more difficult standard to overcome if you can get the standard established.

    to follow up, "good faith" is the standard for post viability abortions in california (although their statute is kinda backward, it's good faith that the fetus is viable and good faith that the was no risk to health of a pregnant person).*  christofascists think this sort of standard allows doctors to "86" healthy pregnancies 8 and a half months in.  they obviously think doctors are horrible people who need to be reigned in by the threat of violence from the state. 

  10. 11 hours ago, Tonesky said:

    If Cox’s lawyer truly failed to ask the expert witness physician if his/her opinions were based in reasonable medical probability, that failure was both idiocy and malpractice. 
     

    Still, fuck Paxton and the Supremes. 

    no, that's not idiocy and malpractice.  the problem with a "reasonable" standard is that kenny P can get some MAGA doctor to testify that in his expert opinion it was not reasonable and then you have a fucking jury question deciding whether a doctor goes to jail and loses their license.  that's why the petition over and over again uses "good faith" because that's a much more difficult standard to overcome if you can get the standard established.

    • Hook 'Em 4
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