I first thought that Ohio is to Democrats as Minnesota is to Republicans: fools gold. Then I looked, and Sherrod Brown won a second term by daylight on the same ballot as Mike DeWine, and Obama won it in 2012, so who knows what to make of that race. It's a hard lift, but it's worth looking at.
Iowa is a red state now, even if Chuck Grassley is unable or unwilling to run again. Ditto for Florida, unless Rubio gets taken out from his right flank and Trump can break the GOP there.
Ron Johnson was dragged in by the Trump wave, but that was also the last time a Republican won a statewide race there.
So 2022 election will be fought in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. Imagine that.
FYI: the senators for the next state admitted sort into Classes 1 and 2, which means appointments to fill the seat immediately after admission, specials in 2022, and full terms in 24 and 26. I'm not sure who/how appointments would be made from DC. I read the statehood acts for both Alaska and Hawaii, and both directed the territorial governor to make the initial appointments.