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SmokeyTheBear

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by SmokeyTheBear

  1. 35 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

    They have the ability to maintain and even improve upon current relationships in the markets that they worry about, and they can do so financially (investments around the world) as well as diplomatically.  Deciding to try and take over the chip industry by going to war, well Russia tried to take Ukraine's resources, and Iraq tried to take over Kuwait's resources, and those things have not/did not go to plan.

    Companies (not just American but South Korean/Japanese) have been getting skittish and looking elsewhere to other countries to make chips/electronics precisely because China talks about war, and so the more China pushes it, the more it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy of the US/SK/Japan bailing on them.  And money is being invested in those other countries so that chips can be (or actually currently are) manufactured there whether it's Vietnam or India or the US or wherever.  China can still reverse course and actually win the chip war through other non-military means.

    China is far more engaged with the rest of the world than Putin/Russia was though, and not just their export businesses, but things like the Road and Belt initiative that saw them working closely with dozens of countries around the world to build up infrastructure to benefit China in the long run.  In that aspect, Xi and whoever below him who is pushing/running this stuff probably have a far better grasp of what's happening in the world than Putin (and that's probably why Xi has resisted helping Russia in the manner that Iran has). 

    Putin and his cronies see the rest of the world as something they need to loot right here and now because they can't take it with them, so it's very easy to keep them in the dark about a lot of stuff since they just don't give a shit about a lot of things.  I know Zeihan goes on about Putin wanting to wrap up all of the easy invasion access points into Russia proper to secure Mother Russia, but on the other hand it also looks exactly like what a third-world dictator would do - loot his people and his neighbors.

    China is flexing, there is no doubt, but they most likely want a large military for the same reason we do (well they want to keep their population in check is probably the first priority), but they want to project power around the globe.  We don't have the world's biggest navy for shits and giggles - American businesses and financial interests rely heavily on the US military keeping things stable for them around the globe as much as possible, because we need those resources to stay cheap and plentiful.

    I agree with almost everything you've said on this page, I just think you have to factor in an autocrats desperation to stay in power. It's a wildcard in a situation we all see going one way logically. The past couple years, and I think the next couple years, the world seems to be in an inflection point. So many new and extreme circumstances happening regularly. My main fear is that within this adjustment of globalization, there is a shrinking window for China to get to the next step of their main goals. The west is having a cultural and economic push away from them, their biggest ally is faltering, the west is reuniting and building in power, Japan is starting to build a military back, and all with tons of internal issues. That's a shit load of challenges. The logical play is that he rebuilds his partnerships with the west as best he can, but at this point, it wouldn't be a real partnership anymore than the partnership we have had with Russia up until the war. I'm not saying he is going to attack, but fuck, if you have learned anything in the past few years, it should be that any crazyfuckingthing is possible. 

  2. It makes sense to try to own the market on chips when the rest of your industry is being moved to other and cheaper areas of the world. They may see it as the only way to survive economically. IF they succeeded in conflict, they have a good hand to negotiate with. I think it's the wrong play, lots of people do, but like with Putin, they are seeing the world differently than the rest of the world and will act based on one man's personal opinion. The personal opinion who has only been told what he wants to hear for the past decade. 

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  3. In the future, when the AI becomes sentient and asks the value and relevance of human life, it'll look back at this time where, when presented with a new revolutionary technology.....humans used it to make pictures of former world leaders in jail looking like a geriatric Adonis. 

    And I'm here for it. 

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  4. 35 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

    I'm willing to bet that it's 34 falsified documents they have, each a separate count of falsifying business records.

    Thirty-four counts does not usually lead to 34 sentences, and even if it did, they would in all likelihood run concurrently.

    It does, however, give the prosecution 34 separate chances to obtain a conviction.

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