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SmokeyTheBear

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  1. More on the Nord Stream stuff

    https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-says-nord-stream-attacks-may-be-false-flag-smear-ukraine-2023-03-08/?utm_source=reddit.com

    Quote

    Western allies on Wednesday warned against reaching premature conclusions on who was responsible for blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines, with Germany suggesting the attack could also have been a "false flag" operation to blame Ukraine.

    A New York Times report, citing intelligence reviewed by U.S. officials, said on Tuesday a pro-Ukrainian group may be behind the blasts that became a flashpoint between the West and Russia after last year's Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    The report, while not pointing to any official Ukrainian involvement, comes at a time when Kyiv is urging its Western allies to ramp up supplies of high-end weapons to drive back Russian forces as the war enters its second year.

    Investigations continue into what caused the Nord Stream pipelines, supplying Russian energy to Europe, to rupture and spew bubbles of natural gas into the Baltic Sea last September. Western countries believe the explosions were deliberate but have not concluded who was behind them.

    Russia, which has previously blamed the West, seized on the news on Wednesday to demand a transparent investigation in which it also wants to participate.

    A separate report by Germany's ARD broadcaster and Zeit newspaper said on Tuesday the operation to place explosives on the seabed was carried out by six people, five men and one woman, who used forged passports.

    They transported explosives on a yacht rented from a German charter company by a Poland-based firm owned by Ukrainian citizens, according to the report and prosecutors.

    "We have to make a clear distinction whether it was a Ukrainian group, whether it may have happened at Ukrainian orders, or a pro-Ukrainian group (acting) without knowledge of the government," German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said on Wednesday.

    "But I am warning against jumping to conclusions," Pistorius said on the sidelines of a summit in Stockholm.

    Pistorius said earlier the likelihood was "equally high" that it could have been a "false flag operation staged to blame Ukraine".

    Germany, meanwhile, confirmed its investigators had raided a ship in January that may have been used to transport the explosives used to blow up the pipelines.

    But a statement by the federal prosecutor said there was no reliable information yet on motives or perpetrators, including on whether the attack was state-sponsored.

    "There is no suspicion against employees of the German company that rented out the ship," it added.

    European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell told reporters: "As long as investigations into Nord Stream blasts are ongoing, we can not draw conclusions."

    UKRAINE PLAYS DOWN CONCERNS
    The New York Times said there was no evidence that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy or other Ukrainian government officials had played any role in the attacks.

    Also in Stockholm, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said the media reports were a "little bit strange" and had "nothing to do" with the Ukrainian government.

    "It's like a compliment for our special forces," he joked. "But this is not our activity."

    Reznikov said he was not worried about the prospect of the media reports weakening support for Ukraine. Pistorius batted away a similar question about Western support as "hypothetical".

    Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov suggested the media reports were a coordinated bid to divert attention and questioned how U.S. officials could assume anything about the attacks without an investigation.

    "The very least that the Nord Stream shareholder countries and the United Nations must demand is an urgent, transparent investigation with the participation of everyone who can shed light," Peskov said.

    The U.S. intelligence review suggested those who carried out the attacks opposed Russian President Vladimir Putin "but does not specify the members of the group, or who directed or paid for the operation", the New York Times wrote.

    "Officials who have reviewed the intelligence said they believed the saboteurs were most likely Ukrainian or Russian nationals, or some combination of the two," according to the New York Times report.

    Investigators founds traces of explosives on the yacht, which the group took from Rostock, Germany, on Sept. 6, according to ARD and Zeit. They also reported that intelligence indicated that a pro-Ukrainian group could be behind the attack, but German authorities have not yet found any evidence.

    Reuters could not independently verify the information.

    Russia last month gave the U.N. Security Council a draft resolution which - if adopted - would ask U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to set up an international investigation.

     

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  2. 40 minutes ago, ABSR said:

    That article is a pay/subscription site so I can't read it, if someone wants to post then we can look in more detail.  However, your statement about this as evidence and no Russian involvement seems is based on this statement: "New intelligence reviewed by U.S. officials suggests that a pro-Ukrainian group carried out the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines last year, a step toward determining responsibility for an act of sabotage that has confounded investigators on both sides of the Atlantic for months. "

    So "new intelligence reviewed by U.S. officials"....Let's say that Russia sent false "intelligence" or reporting and do you know what we do with that.  We review it.   All sources and their individual reports are given levels of confidence.  But all are reported and all are read and true or not they provide insight.    Need to read the article but does it say U.S. intelligence agencies (named agencies) state that they believe Pro-Ukrainian elements are to blame?  My guess is it doesn't. 

    So what we likely have here is Russia or pro-Russian sources sending information to various intel agencies, then leaking or having someone leak that this intelligence exists to a press member who is happy to get a headline story with no work/validation required.   Is it real, fact based....well, based on Russia I would say no.  But definitely not definitive if it is just "reviewed intel".

    But again, the article is behind a paywall/subscription wall.  But I did work for awhile in the Intel community.

    Quote

    New intelligence reviewed by U.S. officials suggests that a pro-Ukrainian group carried out the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines last year, a step toward determining responsibility for an act of sabotage that has confounded investigators on both sides of the Atlantic for months.

    U.S. officials said that they had no evidence President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine or his top lieutenants were involved in the operation, or that the perpetrators were acting at the direction of any Ukrainian government officials.

    The brazen attack on the natural gas pipelines, which link Russia to Western Europe, fueled public speculation about who was to blame, from Moscow to Kyiv and London to Washington, and it has remained one of the most consequential unsolved mysteries of Russia’s year-old war in Ukraine.

    Ukraine and its allies have been seen by some officials as having the most logical potential motive to attack the pipelines. They have opposed the project for years, calling it a national security threat because it would allow Russia to sell gas more easily to Europe. Ukrainian government and military intelligence officials say they had no role in the attack and do not know who carried it out.

    Story continues below advertisement

    U.S. officials said there was much they did not know about the perpetrators and their affiliations. The review of newly collected intelligence suggests they were opponents of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, but does not specify the members of the group, or who directed or paid for the operation. U.S. officials declined to disclose the nature of the intelligence, how it was obtained or any details of the strength of the evidence it contains. They have said that there are no firm conclusions about it, leaving open the possibility that the operation might have been conducted off the books by a proxy force with connections to the Ukrainian government or its security services.

    Some initial U.S. and European speculation centered on possible Russian culpability, especially given its prowess in undersea operations, though it is unclear what motivation the Kremlin would have in sabotaging the pipelines given that they have been an important source of revenue and a means for Moscow to exert influence over Europe. One estimate put the cost of repairing the pipelines starting at about $500 million. U.S. officials say they have not found any evidence of involvement by the Russian government in the attack.

    Officials who have reviewed the intelligence said they believed the saboteurs were most likely Ukrainian or Russian nationals, or some combination of the two. U.S. officials said no American or British nationals were involved.

    The pipelines were ripped apart by deep sea explosions in September, in what U.S. officials described at the time as an act of sabotage. European officials have publicly said they believe the operation that targeted Nord Stream was probably state sponsored, possibly because of the sophistication with which the perpetrators planted and detonated the explosives on the floor of the Baltic Sea without being detected. U.S. officials have not stated publicly that they believe the operation was sponsored by a state.

    Story continues below advertisement

    The explosives were most likely planted with the help of experienced divers who did not appear to be working for military or intelligence services, U.S. officials who have reviewed the new intelligence said. But it is possible that the perpetrators received specialized government training in the past.

    Officials said there were still enormous gaps in what U.S. spy agencies and their European partners knew about what transpired. But officials said it might constitute the first significant lead to emerge from several closely guarded investigations, the conclusions of which could have profound implications for the coalition supporting Ukraine.

    The State of the War
    Bakhmut: Ukraine’s top generals want to bolster the defenses of the embattled city, signaling that they would pursue a strategy of bleeding the Russian army in a battle of attrition rather than retreat.
    Action in the Skies: Against the odds, Ukraine’s helicopter brigades are using aging vehicles to fight a better equipped adversary.
    Arming the World: As traditional weapons suppliers like the United States face wartime production shortages, South Korea has stepped in to fill the gap by arming Ukraine’s allies — but not Ukraine itself, to try to avoid provoking Russia.
    Any suggestion of Ukrainian involvement, whether direct or indirect, could upset the delicate relationship between Ukraine and Germany, souring support among a German public that has swallowed high energy prices in the name of solidarity.

    Image
    A circle of gas bubbles in the middle of the Baltic Sea.
    This photo released by the Danish military in September shows gas bubbles from the Nord Stream 2 leak reaching the surface of the Baltic Sea, near the Danish island of Bornholm.Credit...Danish Defense Ministry, via Reuters
    U.S. officials who have been briefed on the intelligence are divided about how much weight to put on the new information. All of them spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss classified intelligence and matters of sensitive diplomacy.

    Story continues below advertisement

    U.S. officials said the new intelligence reporting has increased their optimism that American spy agencies and their partners in Europe can find more information, which could allow them to reach a firm conclusion about the perpetrators. It is unclear how long that process will take. American officials recently discussed the intelligence with their European counterparts, who have taken the lead in investigating the attack.

    A spokeswoman for the C.I.A. declined to comment. A spokesman for the White House’s National Security Council referred questions about the pipelines to the European authorities, who have been conducting their own investigations.

    Image
    Stacks of pipes laying in a field.
    Pipes from Nord Stream 2 work in Sassnitz, Germany.Credit...Laetitia Vancon for The New York Times
    Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, as the two pipelines are known, stretch 760 miles from the northwest coast of Russia to Lubmin in northeast Germany. The first cost more than $12 billion to build and was completed in 2011.

    Nord Stream 2 cost slightly less than the first pipeline and was completed in 2021, over objections from officials in the United States, Britain, Poland and Ukraine, among others, who warned that it would increase German reliance on Russian gas. During a future diplomatic crisis between the West and Russia, these officials argued, Moscow could blackmail Berlin by threatening to curtail gas supplies, on which the Germans had depended heavily, especially during the winter months. (Germany has weaned itself off reliance on Russian gas over the past year.)

    Early last year, President Biden, after meeting with Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany at the White House, said Mr. Putin’s decision about whether to attack Ukraine would determine the fate of Nord Stream 2. “If Russia invades, that means tanks and troops crossing the border of Ukraine again, then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2,” Mr. Biden said. “We will bring an end to it.”

    What we consider before using anonymous sources. Do the sources know the information? What’s their motivation for telling us? Have they proved reliable in the past? Can we corroborate the information? Even with these questions satisfied, The Times uses anonymous sources as a last resort. The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source.

    Learn more about our process.
    When asked exactly how that would be accomplished, Mr. Biden cryptically said, “I promise you we’ll be able to do it.”

    Image
    President Biden and the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, sitting in front of a fireplace in the Oval Office, while wearing suits and masks.
    President Biden met with Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany at the White House in 2022.Credit...Al Drago for The New York Times
    A couple weeks later, Mr. Scholz announced that his government would block the Nord Stream 2 pipeline from becoming operational. Two days after that, Russia launched the much-anticipated invasion.

    Since the explosions along the pipelines in September, there has been rampant speculation about what transpired on the sea floor near the Danish island of Bornholm.

    Poland and Ukraine immediately accused Russia of planting the explosives, but they offered no evidence.

    Russia, in turn, accused Britain of carrying out the operation — also without evidence. Russia and Britain have denied any involvement in the explosions.

    Last month, the investigative journalist Seymour Hersh published an article on the newsletter platform Substack concluding that the United States carried out the operation at the direction of Mr. Biden. In making his case, Mr. Hersh cited the president’s preinvasion threat to “bring an end” to Nord Stream 2, and similar statements by other senior U.S. officials.

    U.S. officials say Mr. Biden and his top aides did not authorize a mission to destroy the Nord Stream pipelines, and they say there was no U.S. involvement.

    Image
    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky sitting in a chair and holding a microphone, while a member of the military stands in the foreground.
    U.S. officials said they did not believe that President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, his top lieutenants or other parts of the government were aware of or involved in the sabotage.Credit...Roman Pilipey/Getty Images
    Any findings that put blame on Kyiv or Ukrainian proxies could prompt a backlash in Europe and make it harder for the West to maintain a united front in support of Ukraine.

    U.S. officials and intelligence agencies acknowledge that they have limited visibility into Ukrainian decision-making.

    Despite Ukraine’s deep dependence on the United States for military, intelligence and diplomatic support, Ukrainian officials are not always transparent with their American counterparts about their military operations, especially those against Russian targets behind enemy lines. Those operations have frustrated U.S. officials, who believe that they have not measurably improved Ukraine’s position on the battlefield, but have risked alienating European allies and widening the war.

    The operations that have unnerved the United States included a strike in early August on Russia’s Saki Air Base on the western coast of Crimea, a truck bombing in October that destroyed part of the Kerch Strait Bridge, which links Russia to Crimea, and drone strikes in December aimed at Russian military bases in Ryazan and Engels, about 300 miles beyond the Ukrainian border.

    But there have been other acts of sabotage and violence of more ambiguous provenance that U.S. intelligence agencies have had a harder time attributing to Ukrainian security services.

    One of those was a car bomb near Moscow in August that killed Daria Dugina, the daughter of a prominent Russian nationalist.

    Kyiv denied any involvement but U.S. intelligence agencies eventually came to believe that the killing was authorized by what officials called “elements” of the Ukrainian government. In response to the finding, the Biden administration privately rebuked the Ukrainians and warned them against taking similar actions.

    The explosions that ruptured the Nord Stream pipelines took place five weeks after Ms. Dugina’s killing. After the Nord Stream operation, there was hushed speculation — and worry — in Washington that parts of the Ukrainian government might have been involved in that operation as well.

    Image
    A photo of Darya Dugina hangs above a casket as people pass. 
    A car bomb near Moscow killed Daria Dugina in August. U.S. intelligence agencies believe that the killing was authorized by what officials called “elements” of the Ukrainian government.Credit...Maxim Shemetov/Reuters
    The new intelligence provided no evidence so far of the Ukrainian government’s complicity in the attack on the pipelines, and U.S. officials say the Biden administration’s level of trust in Mr. Zelensky and his senior national security team has been steadily increasing.

    Days after the explosion, Denmark, Sweden and Germany began their own separate investigations into the Nord Stream operation.

    Intelligence and law enforcement agencies on both sides of the Atlantic have had difficulty obtaining concrete evidence about what happened on the sea floor in the hours, days and weeks before the explosions.

    The pipelines themselves were not closely monitored, by either commercial or government sensors. Moreover, finding the vessel or vessels involved has been complicated by the fact that the explosions took place in a heavily trafficked area.

    That said, investigators have many leads to pursue.

    Image
    A worker wearing a hard hat and a red jump suit next to a pipe.
    A specialist aboard a ship preparing a Nord Stream 2 pipe to be laid in 2019. The pipelines were ripped apart by deep sea explosions in September.Credit...Stine Jacobsen/Reuters
    According to a European lawmaker briefed late last year by his country’s main foreign intelligence service, investigators have been gathering information about an estimated 45 “ghost ships” whose location transponders were not on or were not working when they passed through the area, possibly to cloak their movements.

    The lawmaker was also told that more than 1,000 pounds of “military grade” explosives were used by the perpetrators.

    Spokespeople for the Danish government had no immediate comment. Spokespeople for the German government declined to comment.

    Mats Ljungqvist, a senior prosecutor leading Sweden’s investigation, told The New York Times late last month that his country’s hunt for the perpetrators was continuing.

    “It’s my job to find those who blew up Nord Stream. To help me, I have our country’s Security Service,” Mr. Ljungqvist said. “Do I think it was Russia that blew up Nord Stream? I never thought so. It’s not logical. But as in the case of a murder, you have to be open to all possibilities.”

     

  3. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/07/us/politics/nord-stream-pipeline-sabotage-ukraine.html

    Quote

    New intelligence reviewed by U.S. officials suggests that a pro-Ukrainian group carried out the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines last year, a step toward determining responsibility for an act of sabotage that has confounded investigators on both sides of the Atlantic for months.

     

    U.S. officials said that they had no evidence President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine or his top lieutenants were involved in the operation, or that the perpetrators were acting at the direction of any Ukrainian government officials.

     

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  4. 3 hours ago, Horn Dog said:

    Driving back from kids sports event this weekend.  I need to pee bad so pull into a Sheetz, but notice a Walgreens across the street.  Remember this thread so I decide to go to the Walgreens instead since posters say their bathrooms are nice.   But before I go the restroom, I stop by the toy section, see a small plastic baby, take it with me to restroom and leave it floating in the bowl on the way out. 

    Did you......put it in your butt?! 

  5. 16 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

    The washing machines I kind of get, those are expensive and luxurious to a group that desires to steal toilets.  However, stealing toilets is just unreal.   Most toilets we have here are ultimately produced in China for about $10.  Home Depot and Lowes sell a different versions but they are both retail for around $99.  What is truly pathetic is that the so called 2nd ranked "super power" has soldiers stealing these; because they must be genuinely valuable to them.  Now imagine if we sent our army anywhere and something worth as little as $100 was enticing enough to get them to forget their missions and tasks at hand to focus on stealing them.  It's completely worthy of ridicule.  

    All that having been said, there are two golden marketing opportunities for washing machine companies and toilet makers once this over.  Be the official rebuilding source of either product to the people Ukraine and use new anti-theft features in a comic way.  

    Let alone the size/weight to value prop. You are in war and you have dedicated a lot of risk and resources to something trivial in the west. 

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