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SmokeyTheBear

Certifiably Surly
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Posts posted by SmokeyTheBear

  1. 15 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

    Spoiler: pessimism incoming 

     

    I think China is going to supply weapons to the Ruskies.

    Not a popular opinion but I think it's time for everyone to feel the pain of cutting China off. We've been too siloed in our own world that we need a correction. Hopefully with the benefit of finally unifying our populace similar to post 911.

    • Hook 'Em 4
  2. 16 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


    Good post.
    It’s about figuring out the balance: how much weight do you give objective measures (how many tanks you have) vs subjective measures (how well you know how to use tanks).
    Think of it this way: it’s why many of the greatest quarterbacks aren’t necessarily great specimens on paper. Back in the day, I thought Ryan Leaf would be a better draft pick than Peyton Manning because of the objective physical tools. But it turns out that what each guy’s head could do (or not do) was way more determinative of their success.
    Russia started this war with a lot of strong pieces in strong positions on their side of the chess board, compared to Ukraine’s fewer and weaker pieces. If both chess players were is similar skill, Russia wins in a few weeks. Turns out that in this metaphor, Russia sucked at chess, and wasted multiple capital pieces in stupid attacks on an opponent with limited prices…but great skill, aptitude, and desire.
    The concern is that at some level, no amount of skill differential can make up for the chess piece differential. If you give me a fully loaded side of the board, and give Kasparov a King and two pawns…I’m gonna beat him, even though he’s 1,000x the player that I am. The real question is, where is that line. If you give him a Bishop and a Knight as well, then does he beat me, the inferior player with all the pieces? Maybe (I mean, he’s Kasparov, and I’m pretty rusty). It’s really difficult to game that out in the real world, with armies and gear and ammo and weather and logistics and strategies and small squad tactics etc.
    But I believe in Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. I believe that this is the most important conflict in the past 80 years. I believe that helping Ukraine win is the most important foreign policy task we’ve had in my lifetime.

    I continue to wonder if we have a strategy of a drip approach. If we just gave Ukraine all the toys, then Putin has cover with his populous that this war was always unfair and that might keep him in power. If we do a constant drip of toys to match his meat waves, then it increases the pain on the populace to force regime change. That has to be the end game in this conflict. Russia has to change and I think if Putin is obviously out matched, then he has to retreat, remessage and possibly retain power and that structure remains for the world to deal with. 

    I think we also have to factor a resupply lag time with equipment. All the supporting countries have to find out how to backfill (with mainly American weapon systems) to remain war ready if this fully escalates. There has to be some hedging on goods delivered to the front lines vs potential value of goods staying home in case they are needed for their own defenses. 

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  3. 11 hours ago, The Dog said:

    Ok I watched a bit but Zeihan got WAAAAAYYY over his skis saying there will be a nuclear exchange. 

    Putin doesn't want that and there won't be one. He is NOT attacking a NATO country at this point. 

    I largely agree but there is certainly a path to it that he touched on. IF Ukraine loses, and IF Putin goes for a NATO country, and somehow IF retains power during that, I can definitely see an exchange of nukes. Maybe not on US soil but as a defensive play on major European cities. There's a lot of IFs to work thru that I don't think we will ever see. But certainly reinforces the need to give Ukraine whatever they need to cripple Russia permanently. I love Zeihan's perspective and analysis, you (the royal you) have to take it in broad strokes though. His doom and gloom is just opportunity for innovation and new industry IMO. 

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    High

    I'm staying in the Netherlands for a month this summer. Has anyone traveled abroad with a Pax like device? Any pro tips if so? 

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    High

    Been a Pax user for a few years now and have 2 of the Pax 3's. Just purchased the Mighty+ and breaking it in tonight with some Lavender Jones. 

    Hiiiiggggghhhh

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  4. 25 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

    I have multiple types of salt in the household....I haven't yet given much thought to which would be best suited for enhancing human suffering.

    Let me ponder that a bit.  I'm thinking a coarser grain, that will burn into the exposed flesh over a longer time.

    Chili-lime salt my man. 

    Good for cheering with a michelada or margarita after. 

  5. 8 hours ago, Hermanator said:

    Las Almas Rotas in Dallas had that for their HOUSE pour. Not sure if they still do but that was the best "well" pour of any type of liquor I'd ever seen anywhere. 

    Yeah this bottle is moving up my list of top mezcals I've had. Needs to breathe a bit but it is so balanced. 

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  6. https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/02/02/politics/us-tracking-china-spy-balloon/index.html

    Quote

    The Pentagon is tracking a suspected Chinese high-altitude surveillance balloon over the continental United States, a senior defense official said on Thursday.

     

    The Pentagon has been tracking the balloon for several days as it made its way over the northern United States, Pentagon spokesman Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder said.

     

    "We are confident that this high-altitude surveillance balloon belongs to the [People's Republic of China]," a senior defense official said. "Instances of this activity have been observed over the past several years, including prior to this administration."

    They're getting ballsy

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