Not a popular opinion but I think it's time for everyone to feel the pain of cutting China off. We've been too siloed in our own world that we need a correction. Hopefully with the benefit of finally unifying our populace similar to post 911.
I continue to wonder if we have a strategy of a drip approach. If we just gave Ukraine all the toys, then Putin has cover with his populous that this war was always unfair and that might keep him in power. If we do a constant drip of toys to match his meat waves, then it increases the pain on the populace to force regime change. That has to be the end game in this conflict. Russia has to change and I think if Putin is obviously out matched, then he has to retreat, remessage and possibly retain power and that structure remains for the world to deal with.
I think we also have to factor a resupply lag time with equipment. All the supporting countries have to find out how to backfill (with mainly American weapon systems) to remain war ready if this fully escalates. There has to be some hedging on goods delivered to the front lines vs potential value of goods staying home in case they are needed for their own defenses.
I largely agree but there is certainly a path to it that he touched on. IF Ukraine loses, and IF Putin goes for a NATO country, and somehow IF retains power during that, I can definitely see an exchange of nukes. Maybe not on US soil but as a defensive play on major European cities. There's a lot of IFs to work thru that I don't think we will ever see. But certainly reinforces the need to give Ukraine whatever they need to cripple Russia permanently. I love Zeihan's perspective and analysis, you (the royal you) have to take it in broad strokes though. His doom and gloom is just opportunity for innovation and new industry IMO.
Been a Pax user for a few years now and have 2 of the Pax 3's. Just purchased the Mighty+ and breaking it in tonight with some Lavender Jones.
Hiiiiggggghhhh