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SmokeyTheBear

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Posts posted by SmokeyTheBear

  1. 3 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

    Don't forget it would also impact us. The country is divided as fuck. We are on the brink of a recession. We go to war, the economy is really going to tank, same as China's. We'll tear ourselves up more blaming and defending the war. 

    Not wrong but also a war is a great unifying subject (sadly). I think across the political spectrum, China is viewed in a negative light. Maybe more so than Russia. But we shouldn't be dictating our long term global strategic goals/security by placating the worst of our society. We have our own domestic terrorists who want to destroy our government regardless of how we manage our external enemies. 

    But China wants to take the top Superpower spot and will work towards that regardless of what anyone else wants. It is in our best interest to stymie that and its most effective to do that when they are weak, not regrouped and able to focus solely on our responses. 

  2. 4 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

    China is well ahead of us in chip manufacturing. They are a only few years behind Taiwan in capability. We are at least a decade. They can live through the chip issue much better than we can. 

    So we start shit now. We'll be a severe disadvantage re chip manufacturing. We'll need continued chip production for a long protracted war, especially since we'll be supporting two wars, Ukraine and Taiwan.

    It's not our fucks that matter. It's China's.

    Great thing about the Ukraine war is that we only have a pinky toe in that one and it is a model for the defense of Taiwan. I do not want a war with China, but if they are going to do their thing (which is their purgative), we need to put pressure and leverage all the weaknesses. If they are dealing with bank runs, and COVID issues, and general unrest from a populace support standpoint, a Ukraine type war could put Xi in a very bad position similar to Putin currently. 

  3. 6 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

    The difference is Taiwan is the chip manufacture for the world including most of our consumer and military chips. We stand firm, China responds militarily. We respond militarily. Taiwan becomes Ukraine for our de facto war. Everything grinds to a halt because chips are no longer produced, and for how long?

    What's the end game? If it's to accelerate the inevitable, then we better have our chip manufacturing capabilities ready in the US. I think we are a at least a decade away being fully independent for chip manufacturing.

     

     

    The alternative is China does what they want, take over Taiwan, controls the chip market and we're sitting around twiddling our thumbs wishing we did something more like Ukraine. 

    *and, any bad actors will be emboldened further because they know America won't do anything of substance to stop them. 

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  4. 6 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

    I have NO problems doing that as a challenge to their claim. 

    Taiwan is a whole nother animal. No need to poke that bear unless we are ready to fully deal with the consequences.

    With how the last 2 years have gone, I fully expect all hell to break loose. It would be a continuation of shit.

    If it's going to go down at some point, then again, why not take every advantage possible to weaken them and strengthen our alliances? I'm of the mind that Russia and China have had their strategies and road map for expansion already set, regardless of what the rest of the world wants. Russia played their hand and now we need to disrupt China's play before they are strong enough to fully realize their strategy. 

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  5. 1 minute ago, washparkhorn said:

    Understood, but whether additional pressure is wise at this juncture is where I err towards caution. I expect this will rally Chinese patriotism at a time when ChiCom leadership is being tested internally (weak domestic demand; zero Covid policy, housing instability). China’s largest trading partners (the US and the EU) are headed towards recession, which will only exacerbate China’s slowing growth. The ChiComs are doing a fine job killing themselves - so why interrupt them?

    If we finally view each other as the hostiles we are, why not weaken them further when we can? They have no problem doing what they want to try to weaken us. All we are doing with this move is tell the world we support Taiwan. This isn't sanctions or a surgical strike or something real. This is trying to stop another Ukraine from happening on China's timeline. 

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  6. I don't know. If you want to put pressure on them, there is no better time. With Russia showing how weak they really are, China largely stands alone now and easier to put in a box. They are in the midst of their own internal mess and their military must be questioning everything after what they see how Lil ol Ukraine is handling the paper bear with our weaponry. Our appeasement of certain regimes is starting to backfire on us and it's time to fix that. 

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  7. 1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

    I haven't really been paying attention to this one, but did fucking China really threaten to shoot down the plane of the speaker of the house?  What would happen if we were to threaten to shoot down the plane of some member of the China govt?  That seems like a really big deal.

    Threatened to shoot down jets that escort her there. 

  8. Just now, jimmyjazz said:

    Memory fades, I can't remember how long it was no admission, at some point it went to $1, but that place got a LOT of my business.  

    Indeed. Had a high school friend who was in the Impossibles so always was there (or liberty lunch) watching them and other bands. Along with some of the best shows I've seen during free day shows at SXSW. 

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