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Welch

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Everything posted by Welch

  1. Welch
    Yep. Color scheme takes a while to get used to. And while we're on the subject of NE, check out those Sturgis numbers in western South Dakota. Off the charts. Don't get me wrong, it's still high. Crazy high. Over 370 infections per 100k even now. (Austin is at 161 per 100k, for comparison). But the trend is hopeful. It was 488/100k on Aug. 13.
  2. Welch
    Per this covidestim link that I think someone here posted a few days ago, it seems like San Antonio and Corpus are on a nice decline (with surprisingly low R numbers) and Austin seems to have peaked within the last few days. Dallas, Houston, and Waco are still on the incline in cases, but the R numbers are falling. Fort Worth seems to be in the worst shape, as it's the only big city with R increasing.
  3. Welch
    Yeah, my hat’s off to NHC for the way they handled Laura last year. There were a lot of people pushing that track towards Beaumont or even farther west, but NHC stuck with Lake Charles and ended up splitting the uprights Justin Tucker-style.
  4. Welch
    Courtesy of Mike’s Weather Page. Most seem to be trending more north/east. Euro had been pointed towards the middle Texas coast, now it’s Louisiana. GFS had been northern Mexico, now lower Texas coast.
  5. Welch
    https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/ Texas Tribune agrees.
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  8. Welch

    2021 MLB Thread

    Welch replied to LTtxfan's topic in Baseball

    Ahh, the memories! https://larrybrownsports.com/baseball/collin-mchugh-carlos-gomez-lights/316348
  9. Welch
    Thinking of making a first-ever trip to the McDonald Observatory this summer, but it looks like the Star Parties are basically sold out through late August. They do have “Evening Sky Viewing” spots available, which seems to be the same thing minus the telescopes. Any recommendations? Are the Viewings worthwhile or should I just wait for Star Party slots to open up?
  10. Welch
    Almost as bad as the five-ball walk to Tucker. f this ump
  11. Welch
    Thread name checks out.
  12. Welch
    I get it, and as an Astros fan like Kermit I can definitely see how a total teardown can lead to an era of success, but put me down for the Spurs’ method 10 times out of 10 in the NBA. Even being in a destination market and having tons of draft assets doesn’t necessarily result in titles (Boston and New York say hi), so I’ve come to the point where I’m thrilled the Spurs have opted for the “stay good and see what happens” model.
  13. Welch
    Holy hell, the Rockets have lost 19 in a row? Worth remembering that the year our superstar whined his way off the team, we still finished 47-35 and made the playoffs.
  14. Welch
    Number of Senate Democrats who crossed the aisle to help the American people by supporting the $1.9T CARES Act in 2020 when Republicans held the White House: 47 Number of Senate Republicans who crossed the aisle to help the American people by supporting Biden’s $1.9T Covid bill in 2021 when Dems held the White House: 0 BUT UNITY!!!
  15. Welch
    A year or two ago, the answer to all three would have been “George Soros!” I guess I give them credit for updating their scapegoats every now and then...??
  16. Welch
    You know, I think he’s gonna wake up and realize he no longer has a brother, and he no longer has any friends, and I’m gonna be standing front and center, just laughing my fucking head off.
  17. Welch
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  19. Welch
    Good thread.
  20. Welch
    Fair enough. Just seems like a heavy lift. If there are, say, 60k allowable provisionals, Biden would need to win those 65%-35% to pick up a net gain of 18k and increase his total lead to ~33k. Any fewer allowable would mean he’d need to win an even larger percentage. I did hear that 40% of them are from Philly, so that’ll help. I’m just skeptical.
  21. Welch
    Given how few PA ballots were announced today, I’m assuming that we’re fully into provisionals now (and mostly done with the mail-ins). If it’s true that the provisional breakdown generally aligns with the counties overall, and the two candidates are basically running 49%-49% across the state, how are we expecting this lead to grow to over 30k? Wouldn’t it basically stay where it is, ~15k, or increase just slightly? What am I missing that’s going to put Biden over +33k or whatever and allow AP to call the race?
  22. Welch
  23. Welch
    Made the trek out to the AT&T Center yesterday, mainly to thank the players for ignoring the “shut up and dribble” mouthbreathers and encouraging people to vote. Probably 50 people in line ahead of me, but it took maybe five minutes to get through that line and another five minutes to vote. Almost a festive environment too. When I was at the voting machine, I was startled by one of the poll workers across the room yelling, “FIRST TIME VOTER!!!” and then everyone in the room cheering for that person. Have never heard that before, but maybe that’s because I usually vote with the olds out in the suburbs.
  24. Welch
  25. Welch
    I’m thinking the big surge still happened, it was just farther east in the largely uninhabited swamps and wildlife refuges. The storm itself came in on the east side of model guidance so I’d imagine the surge followed suit.

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