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triplehorn

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Everything posted by triplehorn

  1. triplehorn
    article from Chinese docs makes an observation that supports your take: So a false negative test may be an equal if not better explanation versus reinfection. One thing that has been questioned is if after infection, recovery, and lasting antibody production, a large re-exposure challenge could trigger a relatively uncommon secondary immune response that can make you "sicker" than the first time around, possibly be life threatening. There is some speculation this happened to the Wuhan "whistleblower" doc who passed away from covid.
  2. triplehorn
    Saw that, then looked away.
  3. triplehorn
    And 80% reduction in social contacts is all it takes. Total lockdown not needed. Awareness and following through with the contact reductions causes R naught (R0) to fall to less than 1. At R0 <1, the virus stalls out within weeks without a vaccine or other cure. Shutting down schools for kiddos will end up having been a huge positive. Huge. Universities across the country also really carried the torch relatively early on by finding alternatives to packing lecture halls.
  4. triplehorn
    I hear you, and you're right. What you're pointing out as having happened over the past two weeks in a rolling pattern can have a major effect on lowering cases and deaths 2-3 weeks from now possibly initially reflected within the next 10 days. I'm reassured that things are heading in the right direction. However it's not going to be easy helping the sheer numbers of affected that are already inevitable. Deadly serious stuff.
  5. triplehorn
    " Bookmark this. When the doubling time of deaths* gets above 3 days, we will have begun to get past the runaway period of the pandemic. Note the current doubling times for China (35 days) & South Korea (12 days). *not cases, which can be under-diagnosed." Using those numbers and that doubling rate today, if we implemented shelter in place tonight on a national scale, in 20 days (appx lag phase time for decreased death rate to be reflected by starting extreme social distancing), the US would have about 25-30,000 deaths. Tonight Italy is at 5,400 deaths and the world total to date right now is 14,600. Previous actions taken by WA, NY, CA, will hopefully drag those numbers down some, as every single day prior that involved some percent of total with home shelter can have a major effect on final numbers later.
  6. triplehorn
    90 Tons of broth
  7. triplehorn
    Correct. Seattle area school districts started to shut down on March 6th. By March 10th, 70% of Seattle businesses had already shut down. It also look like on March 6th WA had recorded less than 100 cases. Most states starting more aggressive approaches have a starting point at least five time that number today (IL >800, LA >800, CA lots, NY lots, TN >300)
  8. triplehorn
    "The Dance" has always been ongoing. This is a severe wake up call. It's not hard to see how there will be immediate term, medium, and long term actions taken to better contain and prevent this kind of thing from happening again. Some of the needed changes have been well understood for a long time but not enacted with foresight or in a timely manner others will be adjusted on the fly based off real time circumstances and data. I expect it should involve strategic stockpiling, re-vamped strategic global communication, coordinated local action plans, education, etc. This is also one of those deals where we can't let a rogue state flip the bird at the rest. It's the same outcome for the whole body as ignoring early signs of cancer.
  9. triplehorn
    Good in depth article: Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance Summary of the article: Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.
  10. triplehorn
    gives a whole new meaning to autoerotic asphyxiation
  11. triplehorn
    ISWYD
  12. triplehorn
    Staying home and limiting social contacts by 80%
  13. triplehorn
    The script said chemo prophylaxis. It said nothing about malaria. It was for off-label use. That is not fraud. The pharmacist gave me my script without even asking or discussing it, which was unusual. I was perfectly willing to explain it. The person who asked me where I was going, by their own presumption, was probably a tech. I didn't feel like having an in depth conversation about theoretical off-label application after I was already done and trying to leave when the place was clearly swamped. It was weird, I'll give you that.
  14. triplehorn
    Is that reasoning epidemiologic or faith based ?
  15. triplehorn
    Last week Teva pharma donated 6 million chloroquine doses to the US. That's not the issue now. People cutting social contacts by 80% and staying home is the issue. After getting antibody test, maybe then we can can talk about how "unecessary" the rx was.
  16. triplehorn
    CTJ - Cut social contacts by 80%. Stay at home and reserve going out to getting food/groceries, fuel, pharmacy. It doesn't have to require military action. But it all starts from the top with effective communication and a coordinated plan. Not every man for himself. and dude, lay off with the other bs. I acted weeks ago before chq was an actual conversation, and pursued it with a legitimate rx from my doc driven by deep concern and being informed. Remind me what your attitude was here the first half of March? Should I go dumpster dive to remind you? gtfo. My elderly parents received it from an online pharmacy in Mexico - without a prescription - because I gave them information a month ago. The only regret I have is posting about it here.
  17. triplehorn
    And yet Trump has still failed to even deploy the Defense Production Act for action to create critical supply in this national emergency. It sure looks like an attempt to maintain appearances while kicking the can. Better off dead than having to live with the pain of admitting failure. It's narcissism fueled suicide.
  18. triplehorn
    We need a national shelter in place policy starting today. Every day delayed carries exponentially worse outcomes. If we had started it a week ago, the next 1-2 months would appear placid by comparison.
  19. triplehorn
    meanwhile...
  20. triplehorn
    Pretty detailed explanation of the evolution of the predicament - we're at critical shortages and yet we're at a fraction of surge levels over the next 4-8 weeks. It's hard to see how this won't prove catastrophic. APnews: Imports of medical supplies plummet as demand in US soars The only real chance we have is basically implementing a national shelter in place policy for an initial 6 weeks starting today.
  21. triplehorn
    Cross posted: this is real time evidence that measures to flatten the curve are working in the US in Kentucky, thanks to the decisive measures implemented by their Governor. Contrast that with management by the Gov. of TN (no CR). Every day matters and the sooner you shut it all the way down, the less time you spend putting out the fires and picking up the pieces.
  22. triplehorn
    I’d expect there to be numbers suppression to maintain appearances, but their numbers were in the 40’s about 10 days ago. They’re still on the gradual upslope of the exponential curve, but they’re on the curve nonetheless. In a little more than 2 weeks, they’ll be sitting on at least 10,000 cases.
  23. triplehorn
    Also realize that as we sit on 305,000 cases identified globally today (80k of that from China back in Jan.), 62,000 of that 305,000 were diagnosed in the last two days. The numbers get incomprehensible faster than you can respond. "If it feels like you're overreacting, you're doing the right thing."
  24. triplehorn
    Man, that guy would have earned an A++ with mega gold stars in Dr. Dee Silverthorn's UT undergrad physiology course. Gawd she loved having you do those hand drawn diagrams on exams. Some here may have had her back in the day. Davis over in Welch for inorg chem as well.
  25. triplehorn
    It's a function of PPE shortages and needing to conserve what supplies we have. More tests means more gowns, gloves, and masks that need to be saved for the acute care setting.

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