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triplehorn

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Everything posted by triplehorn

  1. triplehorn
    What this suggests indirectly is there has been a fair share of people presenting and being stable enough to be sent home despite feeling crappy enough to go to the ER. Mildly reassuring given we pretty much now know this has been going on recently undetected. Missed opportunity for early contain and early community measures. Edit: actually don't know if they got admitted or not. Just no Covid diagnosis evidently.
  2. triplehorn
    Jersey stats showing a non-flu spike starting end of February. No coronavirus testing.
  3. triplehorn
  4. triplehorn
    People detoxing off alcohol in the ICU's for Covid would clearly be a major disadvantage. You want normal blood pressure as much as possible and as decreased mental distress as you can achieve. Even mild detox is no bueno. And if you're tubed, they may never even know which would really suck.
  5. triplehorn
  6. triplehorn
    We're going to need extra
  7. triplehorn
    Whatever your day to day case incidence is, without social isolation it doubles every 3-4 days, some data suggest faster.
  8. triplehorn
    fixed by Manny auto-editor
  9. triplehorn
    VVV Emphasis was placed on transparency, rapidly available and accurate information. Transparency is essential to ensure active participation from citizens.
  10. triplehorn
    Dangerous. Unacceptable. Exclusive: White House told federal health agency to classify coronavirus deliberations - sources
  11. triplehorn
    ^^^ That is why a program of as many possible people wearing masks as possible is important - block spread from those who don't know they're about to be sick. We need shiploads of masks to distribute to communities asap. and not good for Bahrain:
  12. triplehorn
    This German expert offers another way to try to calculate real time number as a starting point for where we could end up based on date strict mass social isolation starts: translated: "Politicians and health authorities are stressing these days that the # coronavirus infection numbers are "snapshots". This is wrong: the numbers reflect the status about 9 days ago (5 d incubation period + test + notification), with no undisclosed figure. # Corona Holidays" So my equation on the previous page is probably wrong, i.e. China had fewer doubles and a higher actual starting case rate before leveling occurred post-mass quaratine.
  13. triplehorn
    The math you should use is how many times does the case number double after starting a quarantine. China had just over 5 doubles before it leveled off. If we're at 1000k and started a national quarantine today, we could expect a rough leveling at 32k. But every 3-4 days that we wait the starting factor doubles. ponder that.
  14. triplehorn
    First hand account:
  15. triplehorn
    Too soon to know. It will take a couple weeks. A whole lot of new cases there are still asymptomatic. Again, China started quarantine at 2000k known cases, which aggressively climbed to 80k over next 2-3 weeks then leveled off.
  16. triplehorn
    And China was at 2000 cases when aggressive social shutdown started, still climbed to 80k. China, SoKo, Japan are all using varying degrees of aggressive social isolation and testing and are way ahead of the curve in relation to the rest of the world.
  17. triplehorn
    It all starts with using the blunt truth in all matters and being informed by clear eyed scientific, epidemiologic, and medical observations to help people make informed decisions.
  18. triplehorn
    The exponential numbers are probably about to be realized in the US by the end of next week. Deaths will likely pick up too as I’m seeing rough average time to death is about 2 weeks. Most known cases in the US aren’t two weeks old. We’re also seeing a proportionally large percentage of ‘active‘ cases as opposed to recovered due to the several weeks long course that this bug causes even when you do eventually recover. All told, I hope it’s not the case but there may be a shift in mortality to include younger folks over more time simply because it takes longer for younger to succumb. It’s hard to keep in perspective how fast this is happening and how early in the ordeal we are.
  19. triplehorn
    Mandatory pre-symptomatic masks for our population? I'd like that a lot more than mass quarantine, but a combination of both would probably be pretty damn helpful. Wish we had 'em
  20. triplehorn
    My fear is that kids are Covid superspreaders. They don't really get sick, spread it all around at school then bring it straight home. German bio-security advisor:
  21. triplehorn
    start it yesterday
  22. triplehorn
  23. triplehorn
    local uni-piper sounds the alarm
  24. triplehorn
    I seeing WSJ dropped paywalls today. Would be great if others did as well to maximize awareness.
  25. triplehorn
    Germany hasn't taken dramatic steps yet but individual schools are closing and they have drive-through testing, like SoKo (w results in hours). Seattle has already mobilized initial drive-through testing. Germany appears to have a 8 day lag relative to Italy. Germany has a lot fewer ICU cases right now than their case equivalent in France.

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