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triplehorn

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Everything posted by triplehorn

  1. triplehorn
    Good read re SoKo Coronavirus: South Korea’s infection rate falls without citywide lockdowns like China, Italy
  2. triplehorn
    Japan closed all schools right away until April at earliest. What else are they doing ?
  3. triplehorn
    This is crucially important and reason for optimism. Watch the video with explanation to better get it. Relatively small changes in how many people we come in contact with have major effects on the absolute numbers of those infected. Look at the difference in sheer numbers over 61 days when "E" is reduced from 1.15 to 1.05, i.e each infected person is exposed to 1.05 people per day versus 1.15 people. It's a massive, massive difference for the better , 411k people vs 106M people ---> social distancing, significantly cut the number of physical and close proximity contacts with others per day. I haven't seen the math behind how long this would have to continue, but China and SoKo are real time evidence that it reverses the curve. full vid:
  4. triplehorn
    The testing frequencies are reactive right now when they should be proactive. The numbers for covid-19 balloon so fast that within weeks the only option is to shut it all down. Most of our country hasn't accepted it yet because we're not thinking in terms of exponential growth curves, but unfortunately shutting it down in a few weeks very well could be too late to avoid a major national health care crisis. It's encouraging to see that there are a lot of signs that businesses and universities are thinking ahead right now. We'll have to reduce the "E" in the equation. The first of 4 total vids in the thread below:
  5. triplehorn
    dr. drew focusing on mortality and not the burden on hospitals due to the severity of respiratory distress and percent requiring hospitalization is the glaring omission. That's what's been talked about here for over a week. You listen to the Chinese and Italian medical staffs on the frontline and they're basically overwhelmed. Would have been interesting to hear his response to China shutting down with a national quarantine. How does he square that? Would he be as flippant ?
  6. triplehorn
    Social distancing and cutting social contacts by 70-80% works
  7. triplehorn
    Novel coronavirus may cause environmental contamination through fecal shedding
  8. triplehorn
    This thing is a flash fire that will burn until the lack of availability of human fuel stalls it:
  9. triplehorn
    Screen shot from the Hopkins site a short bit ago. Yellow Line: daily new cases outside of China. It is showing a perfect logarithmic curve with a doubling time of just over 3 days. Count any 4 days interval and look at the number at either extreme, it's more than double. If you look at the live site graph in lower right, placing your curser in the line dots tells you the number of cases with corresponding day. It's at 32.8K cases now, will be at 65k+ by this Thursday, 130K by next Sunday. China alone is the Orange line. Their shutdown quarantine started Jan. 24th when the graph indicates they had 2k cases. Look how far it climbed (how many doubles) before it slowed. The rest of the world better follow suit asap. Math don't lie.
  10. triplehorn
    pedal to the metal
  11. triplehorn
    I switched all client interactions to phone/virtual today and two out 3 people are sick. One guy who could barely talk was dx'd with bacterial infection but didn't get tested for Covid despite asking to and being told he didn't meet criteria. I mentioned some of the symptoms and reactions people have been having then he mentions that 3 weeks ago the wife of a friend who is middle aged got flu symptoms. Husband got her some cold meds. She went downstairs and he found her passed out on the floor. In coma in hospital and died. That sounds an awful lot like the acute onset and respiratory failure we're hearing about in Kirkland WA and in China. Legitimately freaked out by that.
  12. triplehorn
    CPAC? Meet Biogen meeting.
  13. triplehorn
    jesus, bad choice of words. They're getting slammed. For good reason.
  14. triplehorn
    oh man
  15. triplehorn
    it's glitching. was on then off again just now.
  16. triplehorn
    Weird - the Hopkins sars-cov-19 data website that updates a couple times an hour has gone dark. Not just dark, erased - 'no data'.
  17. triplehorn
    Two weeks til spring break feels like too long to wait. School is happening this morning but I laid the groundwork with a conversation last night. Day to day.
  18. triplehorn
    Heard Herman Memorial already has some staff on 2 week quarantine and there's an ER doc in Philly doing the same. You know, staffing hospitals is already a challenge, wait until we have to start pulling bigger chunks critical staff for 2 weeks at a time.
  19. triplehorn
    They shut down all their schools until April right away, for one.
  20. triplehorn
    Gross negligence doesn’t begin to describe it.
  21. triplehorn
    Given the relative lack of testing and evidence it’s in the community, time to shut it down. Everything I’ve seen and read indicates you can’t act soon enough without heavy regrets. I’ve never been one to worry about injury or illness but the math underlying the spread of this, combined with severity of virulence, has me taking basic protective action like I haven’t before. Not panic, just taking it very seriously.
  22. triplehorn
  23. triplehorn
    This is straight from a medical professional on the Wuhan frontline. Note that the "whistleblower" doctor got interrogated by Chinese police when he recognized this new disease and sounded the alarm. I think it's safe to say that the aggressive shutdown and quarantine originated from the medical profession who recognized the dimensions of severity and spread. It wasn't borne from some attempt by the government to hide. With the severe form of illness lasting upwards of a month, they're just now starting to be able to catch their breath. I expect we'll start hearing more and more in the form of formal medical reporting soon.
  24. triplehorn
    A middle school student just tested positive in Hillsboro, OR. Part of my metro area. I’m thinking spring break just started for this household.
  25. triplehorn
    Our experience with this so far has shown that the virus is volatile and unpredictable,” Killian said. “We’ve had patients who, within an hour’s time, show no symptoms to going to acute symptoms and being transferred to the hospital. And we’ve had patients die relatively quickly under those circumstances…We know very little about how fast this may act.” ^^^ sounds like the virus traveling up nerve fibers from the lungs to the brainstem and shutting down respiratory drive —> ARDS. I posted a medical article the other day about it. Search neuroinvasion of covid. People in China reported as acutely presenting with no spontaneous breathing.

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