triplehorn

The one thing that I notice is that over the last few weeks, and even end of January for Hong Kong, is that it's the health care and physician experts who are doing the talking, not Xi and other political types. Not saying there's no influence, but there's hard science, statistical data, and medical experiences being shared by their professionals. International medical and epidemiological experts are collaborating. It's also now being reproduced outside of China. I'm NOT seeing a whole lot of credible takes that there's a mass disinformation campaign coming out of China. Not saying there's not, just that from what I can see that is science and medicine based, it looks credible and should be taken seriously to inform us about how best best protect ourselves as rapidly as possible.

Worth repeating: epidemiological math using R naught and time to double shows that cutting social contact by 70-80% stalls the curve for new infections, as is clearly happening in China. 70-80% reduction does not mean locked into homes and surviving from a bunker of supplies. Limiting going out and being around groups of people should start now. You can still do most everything else per usual with heightened awareness around hands and coughing/sneezing distances. Go to the store during off hours. The big X factor is kids and school. They pass it around at school and bring it right into the house. Japan cancelled school until April. I won't be surprised if we're there in less than two weeks.

The church reference obviously point to the SoKo sect which is the bulk of their cases. SXSW getting cancelled obviously was an immensely correct decision in spite of the economic fallout.

Grain alcohol (190 proof = 95% etoh) DIY hand sanitizer recipe Good luck finding generic aloe gel right now as many people are on to this. You can still use etoh + water in a mini spray bottle. It's runny but just as effective and you can hit any surface or door handle with it. >60% solution of etoh is potent antiviral. 70% etoh is probably best = 140 proof. So get as pure etoh as possible (grain alcohol) and dilute with gel or water to make it last longer.

As of two days ago, this source directly involved in studying and quantifying the sars-cov-2 virus catalogued 176 discreet genomes and they're adding more by the day. Not a virologist, but I understand this to be due to random mutation. We're already seeing reports of differences in virulence between at least two strains, I just had no idea we're approaching 200. I understand mutations to be able to represent different things, and wrt this virus, some good for us, some bad. To some degree mutations can make it hard for us to develop lasting immunity to an everchanging bug (bad for us), but on the other hand a bug can mutate themselves into a less virulent type. Mutation rates vary and that in and of itself has variable adaptive consequence - whether a genotype changes or stays the same can result in any outcome depending on other environmental factors. Hopefully we start to see the virulence of this bug start to wash out in short order. Wishful thinking but not out of the question.

Correct. For example, even if communities don't shut down schools, there will be a lot of parents who pull their kids out of school to reduce risk of exposure. I've got a young one who I'm sure gifts me a few colds a year and is young enough that missing school wouldn't be a long term setback at all. Kids appear to be running around with this largely unaffected, grown ups not so much. Once it's in your house, forget about it. I'm not there yet, but the thought about having a conversation is there right about now.

--> Director, Institute for Biosecurity Research. Professor in Virology and Microbiology. Former German Fed Govt adviser on disease control.

Epidemiology and math tells us that limiting social contact directly reduces the rate of spread, if not outright contains this bug. We've got to learn from others and modify what they've done where needed to make it work for us to buy time until definitive treatments and vaccines are available.

Italy: Age distribution of fatal cases "The majority of deaths 42.2% occurred in the age group between 80 and 89 years, while 32.4% were between 70 and 79, 8.4% between 60 and 69, 2.8% between 50 and 59 and 14.1% above 90 years old" 56.3% of fatalities have been over 80y/o. 88.7% of total have been over 70. I want to know more about the apparent risk for pulmonary fibrosis and to what degree in those who recover. That would not be a trivial consequence.

hold on to your butt

https://mobile.twitter.com/learyreports/status/1236451644612714496 @realDonaldTrump at Mar-a-Lago tonight: “I’m not concerned at all,” the president said when asked about Coronavirus getting closer to White House. “We’ll hold tremendous rallies,” he said — rallies will continue.

ACE2 receptor reprise

what a stupid dick.

The bad news: 4 new confirmed cases in Oregon today. The good news: aggressive contact tracing; transparent public reporting. March 7, 2020 Oregon health officials have identified four new presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 among residents in Jackson, Klamath and Washington counties. State and local health officials are moving quickly to contact people who may have been in close contact with the individuals who tested as presumptively positive cases. Three of the new cases are travel-related; one was a contact of a known case. The Oregon State Public Health Laboratory tested 42 samples from 22 people yesterday (March 6, 2020), yielding the 4 presumptive positive cases and 18 negatives.

Yeah, with all due respect, his explanation against mass quarantine and isolation is utterly lacking. Nothing about what he said suggests he's actually thought it through wrt this specific bug, or what's happening statistically in various places with and without isolation. cross-posting from other thread: ^^^ what that is is a mathematical epidemiological explanation of by how much do we need to reduce social contact in order for spread to be reduced to rate where it is contained and extinguished, i.e. favorable R naught. We don't do this for the common cold because you don't die or get permanent scarring of the lungs. Flu also has an acceptable mortality rate and we have vaccines, herd immunity etc. This bug is sufficiently contagious and virulent to warrant serious consideration. Aggressive social contact reduction would likely be most appropriate on a city/regional basis depending on circumstances. We're already seeing the beginning of it in Washington. It would need to take local and state leadership to coordinate and rally, because trump and his toadies are fucking clueless and insane. I think many of our states and communities could accomplish this kind of reduction if needed, and without Chinese methods.

Re the vid GRH just posted, he answers a question at the 32 min mark about quarantine. It's important to note he focuses on the "draconian" and "authoritarian" aspects of it being bad. The only rationale he offered was that since it involves respiratory spread, it won't work. JMO, but that explanation isn't convincing. The statistical analysis above suggests that reducing social contacts by 80% should get us to R naught, where we need to be. He can criticize heavy handed authoritarian methods, but they appear to be working convincingly in China right about now. Does the US need to employ that level of heavy handedness? I don't think so. Our population density is way less, we're digitally connected, and mostly can do this, I believe.

I haven't watched the above video GRH just linked, but evidently it offers an opinion at odds with the epidemiological statistical analysis I just linked. So don't know what the rationale is from the vid yet. Key distinction: there also may be a fundamental difference in what each is talking about wrt "reducing social contact by 80%" vs. "quarantining" which also may include different envisioned outcomes.

Just to emphasize, the above is a mathematical epidemiological explanation as to why social distancing works with this bug. So what is happening in Northern Italy today, and what the China did is not irrational panicked behavior. It's sound, smart, and works.

statistical target ----> cut 80% of interactions: so, move to Maine ?

Also just in per BNO: "Washington state reports 22 new cases of coronavirus and 3 new deaths, raising total to 102 cases and 16 dead"

Both tweets: check that curve in the first, notable link to DMN article in second: