triplehorn

Spoilering this to save space --> math fxn wrt ICU admissions and CFR as fxn of health system capacity:

Like a formerly impossible formula for bankrupting a casino.

I like seeing this daily updated site from Oregon DHS accounting for actual numbers of those being actively tested and monitored and instructions/other criteria to consider Also posted there: The Oregon State Public Health Laboratory continues to test for COVID-19 in Oregon. In addition, private labs operating in the state have begun testing for the virus. Oregonians who are seeking a test for COVID-19 should call their doctor. OHA has identified people at greatest risk from exposure to COVID-19. These groups include: People who traveled, in the last 14 days, from a country where COVID-19 is circulating. Anyone who had close, prolonged contact with a confirmed COVID-19 case in the last 14 days. Anyone who doesn’t have an epidemiological link to COVID-19, such as the above examples, but who meet the following criteria: Clinical illness requiring hospitalization. Evidence of lower respiratory viral infection (viral pneumonia). A negative influenza test.

get used to it

Absent a coherent fed response, state and local measures are key and will vary. From where I sit, things are moving: And actual coordinated case directed testing happening:

Testing is still very important even if we're past contain

Trump instinctively promotes behavior that will ensure maximum body count.

My high traffic local grocery hub looks more stocked than normal with less people running around. It's just the non-food survival essentials that are long gone. Those shelves have signage and they've implemented buying limits to thwart hoarding.

Someone here mentioned the "ground glass" appearance last week. Don't recall if CT specifically was mentioned, but it's chest CT. Chest xray doesn't reveal the ground glass effect from what's reported.

Online gamers will out-survive us all.

I didn't key on a formal definition of "growth factor" per your link as distinct from a positive sloped line indicating an increased rate of infection and the translated meaning of differences in slope. But even looking at your link, and "growth factor" graph, the average GF of the last 3 days is 1.20, which your link states "could signal exponential growth." What you're showing me is that we really aren't far apart on this. And I'm sure as hell not being hysterical, dude, whatever satisfaction you're trying to get. We need more time and data, but if I had to bet, the 'outside of China curve' will look worse over the next 3 weeks than 'the China curve' in Jan/Feb mainly because we're not doing military grade isolation and quarantine by the 10's of millions. Protective factors for us relate to not having average city sizes of 11M, having generally well stocked stores for supplies and infrastructure to support better hygiene and social distancing. I'm not throwing in any towels here. And I could go full fucking CR right now, but won't.

This has good hour to hour data: Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE China has been sitting on 80k cases this week, while outside of China has blown up by 11-12k new cases since 3/1. Look at the graph in the lower right corner of the link, expand it and use the 3 options at the bottom to look at "daily cases" and then "new confirmed". What you can appreciate is a linear slope which speaks to rate of new cases/day. China spiked in mid/late January then started a level/downslope. What it shows over the last two weeks is the global curve outside of China and today we're essentially at the rate of new cases per day that China was at its peak, and it sure looks like an up-slope over the last two weeks, i.e. infection rate is increasing outside of China. Yes you can point to fuzzy incomplete stats and the effect of increased testing, but the big picture view that the graph depicts makes sense and is generally also consistent with what's being reported here in the US. I was hopeful a week ago that Covid-19 was actually already pretty widespread in the US over the past month and we simply didn't recognize it, which in it;s own way is kind of reassuring, but unfortunately I don't think it was nearly that prevalent, or as prevalent as it's about to be.

You sure about that ?

Except for the outlier numbers for 2 days when SK got on board w testing, today is the highest spike in newly confirmed cases globally since Feb. 5th. And at 3.7k, we've still got half a day left.

Important Pompeo admission: we're behind the curve. big time.

The ACE2 receptor is referenced in the article I just linked. also take note of this: "If the neuroinvasion of SARS-CoV-2 does take a part in the development of respiratory failure in COVID-19 patients, the precaution with masks will absolutely be the most effective measure to protect against the possible entry of the virus into the CNS. It may also be expected that the symptoms of the patients infected via facal-oral or conjunctival route will be lighter than those infected intranasally. The possible neuroinvasion of SARS-CoV-2 may also partially explain why some patients developed respiratory failure, while others not. It is very possible that most of the persons in Wuhan, who were the first exposed to this previously unknown virus, did not have any protective measure, so that the critical patients is much more in Wuhan than in other cities in China."

Pure horror show : The Neuroinvasive Potential of SARS-CoV2 may be at least partially responsible for the respiratory failure of COVID-19 patients "Following the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), another highly pathogenic coronavirus named SARS-CoV-2 (previously known as 2019-nCoV) emerged in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and rapidly spreads around the world. This virus shares highly homological sequence with SARS-CoV, and causes acute, highly lethal pneumonia (COVID-19) with clinical symptoms similar to those reported for SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. The most characteristic symptom of COVID-19 patients is respiratory distress, and most of the patients admitted to the intensive care could not breathe spontaneously. Additionally, some COVID-19 patients also showed neurologic signs such as headache, nausea and vomiting. Increasing evidence shows that coronavriruses are not always confined to the respiratory tract and that they may also invade the central nervous system inducing neurological diseases. The infection of SARS-CoV has been reported in the brains from both patients and experimental animals, where the brainstem was heavily infected. Furthermore, some coronaviruses have been demonstrated able to spread via a synapse-connected route to the medullary cardiorespiratory center from the mechano- and chemoreceptors in the lung and lower respiratory airways. In light of the high similarity between SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV2, it is quite likely that the potential invasion of SARS-CoV2 is partially responsible for the acute respiratory failure of COVID-19 patients. Awareness of this will have important guiding significance for the prevention and treatment of the SARS-CoV-2-induced respiratory failure. cont." ---> implications that Covid-19 can invade the brainstem affecting CNS respiratory drive pathways contributing to acute respiratory distress and/or inability to carry out normal involuntary breathing. ---> The draft article above is described as accepted for publication but has not been formally published, so bear that in mind. The rest of the article is technical and reads as a legitimate report.

The reference to possible irreversible lung damage was also substantiated from findings reported in The Lancet: I take it to mean those 81 patients were living when they got the CT scans and showed fibrotic changes which is basically scarring. They don't elaborate at all on what kind of immune system dysfunction might result (wrt the AIDS reference).

fuck_this. They're reporting risk for permanent lung damage even following recovery. No messing around here.

You need a hand sanitizer nebulizer STAT

corrected number from 2700 2300 in line for inpatient treatment in Daegu SK 2700 without needed higher level of care in one city is pretty dire, will result in deaths of savable patients.

Also saw something like 2,700 in SK are waitlisted for a hospital bed due to severity of illness and lack of space .

Blarney stone don't care

well that escalated, finally.