The expected colder seasonal changes affecting indoor/outdoor activity appear to be manifesting as expected. How much it spikes probably is (has to be) affected by how hard regional populations were already hit in the spring/early summer, for one.
Compared to the US as a [shit]whole, the normalized new daily cases/1M population is substantially lower in Poland, Finland, Canada, and Russia. Meanwhile keep NY's uptick in context:
NY peaked at over 11K new cases per day in Mar/Apr and was at over 7K new cases per day for essentially a month. While 1500k new cases per day in NY is worse than the ~500/d it had for July/Aug it's hard to see that daily rate approaching over 7k/day again. Even factoring that NY is down from 11k new cases/d to 1500 cases/d, NY's normalized rate today (~79 new cases/1M) is still higher than current spikes in Canada, Russia, Poland, and Finland.
I guess the takeaway is that even with the expected seasonal increases, we're not yet seeing signs of a recrudescence that will equal or surpass the severity of the first half of 2020. Hopefully it won't even approach being half as bad as the worst days for a chunk of US regions that have already weathered big spikes like NY, FL, TX, CA and several others.