We just had Phil Cox talk to us at our conference - he runs Elon's America PAC. First off, he was a great speaker with great insights and for a guy that is clearly team Trump, he kept it about as neutral as you can imagine. It was refreshing.
Some interesting tidbits based on their internal polling - they feel strong about GA and AZ for Trump. Like outside margin of error. He also said PA and WI are outside the margin of error for Harris. MI and NC are the dead heats in their view.
From COVID, PA has seen net migration from NY, bolstering their registered Dems. FL has shifted from +300k D to +1M R and a lot of that came from PA, WI - hence why they think they are both safe D states. AZ has seen CA Rs migrate. MI is a Muslim problem for the Democrats - they are pissed at the D party and they have no home with the Rs so they may stay home.
Senate goes R pretty clearly in their view.
Apologies for the disorganized recap but it was a very interesting talk.