
Jiggy-Z
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Posts posted by Jiggy-Z
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2 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:
The highlights for those of you that did not click:
- Top takeaways
- At this point, we are past containment. Containment is basically futile. Our containment efforts won’t reduce the number who get infected in the US.
- Now we’re just trying to slow the spread, to help healthcare providers deal with the demand peak. In other words, the goal of containment is to "flatten the curve", to lower the peak of the surge of demand that will hit healthcare providers. And to buy time, in hopes a drug can be developed.
- How many in the community already have the virus? No one knows.
- We are moving from containment to care.
- We in the US are currently where at where Italy was a week ago. We see nothing to say we will be substantially different.
- 40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. After that level you can start to get herd immunity. Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population.
- [We used their numbers to work out a guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5 million Americans may die. The panelists did not disagree with our estimate. This compares to seasonal flu’s average of 50K Americans per year. Assume 50% of US population, that’s 160M people infected. With 1% mortality rate that's 1.6M Americans die over the next 12-18 months.]
- The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu.
- This assumes no drug is found effective and made available.
- The death rate varies hugely by age. Over age 80 the mortality rate could be 10-15%. [See chart by age Signe found online, attached at bottom.]
- Don’t know whether COVID-19 is seasonal but if is and subsides over the summer, it is likely to roar back in fall as the 1918 flu did
- I can only tell you two things definitively. Definitively it’s going to get worse before it gets better. And we'll be dealing with this for the next year at least. Our lives are going to look different for the next year.
- What should we do now? What are you doing for your family?
- Appears one can be infectious before being symptomatic. We don’t know how infectious before symptomatic, but know that highest level of virus prevalence coincides with symptoms. We currently think folks are infectious 2 days before through 14 days after onset of symptoms (T-2 to T+14 onset).
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3 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:
Obesity ad Diabetes are going to come into play and are definitely more of a factor than pollution.
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13 hours ago, Horn Dog said:
You get the cold and flu more than once because there are hundreds of viruses that cause the cold and flu. Each time you get one, you are immune, at least for a time, to that particular virus. This COVID-19 virus is one specific virus. It’s not completely certain since its new, but there is a reasonable chance that once you get it, you will have some form of immunity, at least for a period of time. It it didn’t offer some immunity to the survivors, the virus infection rate on the population would not slow down, as they always do.
And yes, as pointed out above, it will mutate but usually the mutants are not as potent since you have had exposure to a similar cousin. This is one working theory on why kids are not being as badly effected...they get infected with other corona viruses regularly at school.What he said.
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21 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:
Tom thinks this was grown in a lab and released as a biological weapon.
My ass.
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2 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:
I've had both the cold and the flu more than once. What makes you think surviving coronavirus makes you immune? It's not chicken pox.
If it is the same strain, it does.
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Once everybody gets the virus, the survivors will be immune, and even the previously uninfected will have a greatly reduced chance of contraction due to the reduction in available hosts among the survivors (previously infected).
I hope we don't go that route tho.
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8 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:
He is going to go down and take as many of us as he can with him. Not kidding.
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13 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:
Hey guys, do y'all remember that illness that had a 0.02% mortality rate that one time? I sure don't.
Never mind that this current pandemic that currently has a mortality rate 200x higher than 0.02% in areas that were late to react to the situation. I mean if you think about it, what if the optimistic estimates of a lower actual mortality rate of 1% come true? Then it's only 50x more deadly than swine flu. Approximately 60 million Americans got H1N1 and only 12,500 died from it. If 60 million Americans get COVID-19 then somewhere between 600,000 and 2.4 million will die from it.
Same same.
This Guy: Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota.
Said conservatively, in the US. 48 million hospital patients, 96 million cases, 480,000 deaths. 10-15 X worse than worst flu outbreaks.
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Still a lot of bad information out there. So..
....regardless of what some of you may think of the Joe Rogan podcast and the 20% crackpot rate he has, he had this guy on yesterday..
Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota.
First 20 minutes is where most of the CV 19 stuff is, although the remainder is pretty enlightening in a frightening infectious diseases kind of way.
This should be required watching/reading.
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1 hour ago, CheesePie said:
Our testing numbers are going to be skewed to the point of uselessness if and when we ever get a testing system operational. I'm convinced hundreds of people in the U.S. have already died from this, with the cause of death being determined as the flu.
There will be many many thousands more and the cause will be known.
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Just now, Onboard 2.0 said:
Are they worse than Illinois Nazis ?
But of course.
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Late to the party but I am occasionally bothered by elbow issues from rock climbing, although they do not sound as serious as yours.
There is the meathead guy on youtube with the channel name Smashwerks. He specializes in mobility and rehab/prehab. Go to his channel and search for elbow pain and pick out a drill or two that you can do. You will probably need to get some floss bands and some exercise bands.
These really helped me and usually within a week I am good to go. They (Trevor) guy is a chiropractor and licensed physically therapist, but he is also a meathead. Kind of an acquired taste.
Also pay attention to the upstream and downstream muscles and joints, often where the actual problem is. He has a ton of stuff that has really helped me regain some much needed mobility.
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On 2/24/2020 at 1:26 PM, Native Horn said:
Richard Schram at Austin Orthopedic Specialists (I visited his location by Seton Southwest) is a pretty well-known name. His bedside manner is fairly abrupt, but he's a good dude. Did two meniscus clean-ups for me successfully.
I ended up going to Dean Chen and had an MRI, which indicated that I need some meniscus clean up. So partial removal of medial meniscus and some hole drilling in some sort of muscular like node that is somehow agitated by the existing meniscus tear.
Since my diagnosis I have reading up on the extremely common procedure/cottage industry and have read a couple of disturbing reports on whether this actually helps anything more than doing doing just a prolonged extended rehab of the knee joint to mitigate the effects of the tear.
Tell me more about your experience and some costs, as I will be paying for this myself since I have really shitty insurance.
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Also, obligatory, "I hate Tennessee Nazis"
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- Popular Post
- Popular Post
Did he raise much of a furor?
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Does this kind of thing happen in "rich" school districts?
I am also curious how this sort of thing goes down on the construction side of things for big SD projects.
I can see bribery as a problem but for the most part all of those large GC's are pretty much the same as far as quality subs and management personnel. Most of the contracts are management fee, OH, and the cost plus rather hard bid. If the required bribes are outrageous, I could see the GC's jacking up the sub numbers and getting some kickbacks to make up the difference. If the jobs are run legit once the contracts are awarded, then this is not a big a problem as we are making it out to be.
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If at first you don't succeed, quit and get tanked. -Steve Dallas.
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23 minutes ago, Armybrat said:
About all I can manage is doing the stationary recumbent bike three or four times a week - 40 minute sessions each. Better than nothing, but then again anything more generates chest pain for me. That can suck major league donkey calls.
Of course there is a caveat for age and existing health issues. That being said, I bet you could find some of your old weights laying around and do some work.
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15 hours ago, Sbbruin said:
I am celebrating my 53rd lap around the sun today. 7 days/week of dedicated exercise is unsustainable for people like me. I work out 4 days/ week, and each time it is some weights and 30 mins of cardio (elliptical due to a bad ankle). Coupled with better eating, I'm down 10 lbs this yr. But if I tried to make it 7 days a week I would probably bail out. This seems sustainable.
A program I was on advocated for something similar (for exercise-diet was a whole other thing entirely) , although it was not age specific. It was surprising how little you had to do to actually be in really good shape. I will write it out below, but before anybody freaks out, the exercises are able to be scaled. For example, if part of your workout call for 50 push ups, you would not necessarily have to do 50 normal push ups. Depending on your starting ability and strength you could start doing something as easy as wall push up and progress to normal push ups. From a strength perspective, once you are able to do the strength workout below 2 times per week, you will have been able to develop ~90% of your genetic functional strength without having to concentrate or overdo it developing that last 10% for say, a specialty sport or something.
Moving: 3-5 hours per week of moving around slowly: (yard work, walking, housework, shopping, casual recreation(fishing, hiking, hunting, playing with the kids) Everything counts.
Strength: 2 X per week: 12 pull ups, 50 push ups, 50 air squats, 2 min forearm plank hold. Repeat these with reverse grip on pull ups for the second round. (takes about 30 min with minimal rest in between to catch breath)
Sprint: 1 X every 7 to 10 days: 8-12 all out max effort sprints of 10-15 seconds duration with ample recovery in between sprints. Could be running, cycling, swimming, elliptical etc.
Once you are able to do the above, you can upgrade to more difficult variations, but there is no need to. And again, there are easier exercises that you do with the same sets/reps to work up to the above.
So as you can see you are working out only 3 days per week max and there is no gym membership required. I did this for about 3 years at age 45-48, and with proper diet was able to go from 200lbs to less than 175lbs...and that last 10 lbs was slow to come off as I was bumping up against ~10-12% body fat, but was simply able to add about an hour more of walking/week to get there.
My regimen was interrupted by injury as I progressed on my squat variations to pistol squats (10 per leg not 50) which injured my groin. I was able to get back on it once things healed up and things worked just fine. I have not been able to keep to it regularly after I took up rock climbing, as I have been doing different exercises and dealing with various injuries, but it is always something I turn back to when I need it and it still works now even at age 53.
I would also say that, since this is an old farts thread, I would take any strength/sprint training very slowly, and spend a good amount of that 3-5 hours per week of moving slowly on mobility exercises.
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21 hours ago, Deej said:
No Jimmy the Neck?
I think he is over on NPR.
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On 3/1/2020 at 10:57 PM, ImissWallyPryor said:
My wife had shoulder surgery about 12 years ago. She developed a “frozen” shoulder. Even though her damage and repair wasn’t as significant as yours, the scar tissue was no fun.
I tore my rotator cuff playing football on Freshman Field (a.k.a. Jester Field) in 1979. I didn’t have surgery, but for years it would dislocate doing everything from diving in the water to rolling over in bed. I could eventually lift weights fine, but I couldn’t throw worth a shit. Then the opposite thing happened when I started playing catch with my son. Starting out easy before throwing harder and further allowed my shoulder to strengthen. I could eventually throw a football 30 yards on a rope, or that’s what it felt like after years of throwing like a pussy.
The only thing is I would still need to warm up before I could make a full throwing motion. One time I was coaching first base for my son’s Little League team, and I had to retrieve a foul ball by the fence behind me. Let’s just say that my cold shoulder throw back to the pitcher was legendary.
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4 hours ago, Thrawn said:
Not a huge fan either, but something just feels right about it when I go to the beach. Maybe it will warm up enough tomorrow to hit a spring training game, then end the day at the tiki bar on the beach with more than a few Coronas. Sounds better than hanging out on the lanai with a bottle of bourbon. Though that is plan B at this point.
FYI. Went with Bud Light...the devil you know and all that.
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51 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:
Guess what is trending right now? #38% of Americans. Oh and #TrumpLiesAboutCoronavirus is at #4. He's in for a rough day.
So the first things to fly off the shelves was, of course, masks, hand sanitizer, respirators, disinfectant, tissues etc. But this will be the next thing. I am going to stock up this afternoon and help 'em out a bit. (even though I don't like Corona...beer)
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12 hours ago, bolverk said:
I took this photo on the courthouse square of Llano yesterday but didn't notice any Trump flags between Bee Cave and there. That said, I can guarantee you'd see some further northwest between Llano and Brady on 71.
Notice how the COUNTY GOVERNMENT is being subtle in their support and celebration of the Confederacy (not the battle flag).
From a historical perspective, I can somewhat understand retaining a 100-year-old monument but have no understanding of the thought process which would lead a COUNTY GOVERNMENT to decide that it's okay to fly the Stars and Bars.
Why would Llano County have a statue of Truman Capote?
Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away
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