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PTINS

Burnt Ends
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  1. BBC; Russian general killed by car bomb in Moscow, officials say A Russian general has been killed in a car bombing in Moscow, officials have said. Russia's Investigative Committee said Lt Gen Fanil Sarvarov died on Monday morning after an explosive device planted under a car detonated. He is the third military official to have been killed in bomb attacks in the Russian capital over the last year. Sarvarov, 56, was the head of the armed forces' operational training department, the committee said. It added one theory being investigated was that the bomb was planted with the involvement of Ukrainian intelligence services. Ukraine has not commented. Sarvarov died in hospital as a result of his injuries, the committee said, adding it had opened an investigation into murder and illegal trafficking of explosives. Investigators have been sent to the scene, in a car park near an apartment block in the south of Moscow. Images from the area show a badly damaged white Kia Sorento with the doors blown out, surrounded by other vehicles. According to Russian media, Sarvarov previously took part in combat operations during the Ossetian-Ingush conflict and the Chechen wars in the 1990s and early 2000s, and also led operations in Syria between 2015-2016. Reuters Investigators work near a destroyed car after a blast from an explosive deviceReuters Investigators could be seen working at the scene on Monday morning Vladimir Putin was informed of Sarvarov's death immediately, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a number of military officials and high-profile individuals have been targeted in the Russian capital. Darya Dugina, the 29-year-old daughter of a prominent nationalist figure and Putin close ally, was killed in a suspected car bombing in 2022. Gen Yaroslav Moskalik was killed in a car bomb attack last April, while Gen Igor Kirillov died in December 2024 when a device hidden in a scooter was detonated remotely. A Ukrainian source later told the BBC that Kirillov was killed by Ukraine's security service, though this was never confirmed on the record. As a matter of policy, Ukraine never officially admits or claims responsibility for targeted attacks. AP; Car bomb kills Russian general in Moscow MOSCOW (AP) — A car bomb killed a Russian general on Monday, the third such killing of a senior military officer in just over a year. Investigators said Ukraine may be behind the attack. Lt. Gen. Fanil Sarvarov, head of the Operational Training Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces’ General Staff, died from his injuries, said Svetlana Petrenko, the spokesperson for Russia’s Investigative Committee, the nation’s top criminal investigation agency. He was 56. “Investigators are pursuing numerous lines of inquiry regarding the murder. One of these is that the crime was orchestrated by Ukrainian intelligence services,” Petrenko said. Since Moscow sent troops into Ukraine nearly four years ago, Russian authorities have blamed Kyiv for several assassinations of military officers and public figures in Russia. Ukraine has claimed responsibility for some of them. It has not yet commented on Monday’s death.
  2. "Run and hide asshole. Run and hide."
  3. Not sure who. I don't remember if is was Bobby or Gerry or some other $9.95er, or a poster here, but i read it early in the process. Time to push all the chips in the pile.
  4. You had me at Intensity. I saw the tag line on phone last night... "PK Fired" ...WT holy Fuck?????? "Muschamp ..." Oh, Ok. Sorry about PK, but ... "... when you can upgrade, do it every time. he has produced some of the best and most physical defenses we've had in a long, long time stop the god damned penalties, stop talking about culture and demand attention to detail at every level and win fucking games. One of the very best pure coaches on a side of the ball that has ever donned the burnt orange and white has returned to Austin. Make no mistake, this was a very good day for Texas football. What I absolutely love about Muschamp as a coach and person begins before an install, video breakdown, play call or scheme. It's the intensity, the passionate communication, the non-stop motor, a fire that burns constantly, the way he challenges his defensive players to bring the best out of them, the demand for physicality, the demand to be detail oriented of his players which creates discipline. The spending time with family..." I'm 100% behind this. I liked PK, but his late game defense was the equivalent of Herman's turtling offense. Those late game collapses hurt us, even if we won the games. The scoreboard made easy wins look like close games. Boom was Sark's 1st choice. I think that's where the list ended. Muschamp had a kid at Georgia; that was an easy decision for him. When my company was acquired, I asked my new boss for a job description. He took his feet off my desk, grabbed a sticky note, and handed it to me; "MAKE MONEY!" "Now, which word do you not understand?" Boom doesn't send mixed signals. His style of communication is more direct. His personality and style of play resonates with players. I think he will get Texas over the top and on recruiting a lot of star players that we almost get, but finish 2nd. Coach Boom brings a passion and intensity that has been in short supply for a very long time. Somebody has to energize the team. We have a lot of great players that are good people, culture guys, but they are all of the "walk softly and carry a big stick" kind of guys. Somebody has to charge up the team emotionally. Muschamp will find it, bring it out, and cultivate it. And equally important, that passion and intensity will bleed over to the offense. After years of making money for others, I started my own company so I could watch my boy's grow up, did it for 10 years. A+ for Coach Boom. The man knows whats important in life. Early on, someone alluded to the notion that prospective new offensive coaches were in the playoffs. I thinking there's more to come. "The oxen are slow, but the earth is patient."
  5. I'm responding to myself, but I didn't want to pollute my first response. This is borderline CR, but still related to the topic. TLDR The US has tremendous natural gas resources, and Biden kicked the LNG industry (and O&G) in the 'nads. Trump reversed that mindset, 100%, throwing gasoline on the fire. Gulp. Trump was right. I can't say it. The US should produce gas, make LNG and export it, and Europe is much closer and easier than SE Asia. But it will impact domestic gas prices. The next time Texas freezes for a week, who gets the little bit of gas still being produced? The sparks fly when the reality of the present day market gets in the face of long term contracts, and $$$. The answer is not binary, and it it not finished when the papers are signed. In is a huge, living, constantly changing beast, at it needs to be treated as such. DJT may be a self anointed real estate mogul, but I think he and his 2 minute attention span would get his ass handed to him trading energy commodities. To be fair, I think that also applies to most of our former Presidents. I will never understand the pushback on putting energy professionals in the Department of Energy. What happens with the next US administration? Back to the other extreme? Europe is replacing Russian natural gas with imported LNG, from the US, and other places. Europe will be dependent on the kind hand offered by the US. Kind'a like NATO was. How's that's working out for them? While looking for Russian refinery data, I saw some verbiage that Russia now flares more gas than any other country. It used to be between Iran and the US. Russia I'm not sure if that includes Nordstream, but the number was close to the pipeline capacity, ~ 3-4 BCF/day, or ~ 1 or 2 LNG plants. When all is said and done, Russia has the gas production and reserves and the pipelines assets are already in place, and Russia SHOULD still be the cheapest source of gas for Europe. But Russia should never be the only source.
  6. I'm not that familiar with the European gas market (I don't have tome to go down that rabbit hole), so i'm not exactly sure what gas price is shown in the graph. But my first guess is that is an apples and boxcars comparison. Below is a similar plot of US gas prices, with no indication of the source of the data. Directionally, it appears to be valid information, but the entities that have the trading data also tend to have an agenda, so beware. If you over lay the two plots, they are similar, which one might conclude that US and European prices are the same. In one sense they are, but in reality, they are very different. The US has 100's (1,000's) of supply points and 1,000's of delivery points, with 1000's of transactions reflected in the gas spot market price at a specific point in time. In the US, the paper price is indicative of the real price. By comparison, mainland Europe (Not the UK and Norway) has a much smaller gas market, with minimal native gas supplies, and fewer, and larger delivery points. In the one sense, it is also a valid price, but I expect the volumes transacted at that price on a daily basis is but a small fraction of the US volumes From the graph, one might conclude the US and European prices are similar, so why do they need to import LNG? Well without LNG, that gas price goes off the chart. I asked Google, "What is the delivered cost of LNG to Europe?" (Again, directionally, the answer and information is within reason.) "AI Overview The delivered cost of LNG to Europe in late 2024/early 2025 typically ranges from $10–$15/MMBTU, but varies significantly with market conditions, adding liquefaction, shipping, and regasification costs to the base gas price (like U.S. Henry Hub). Factors like high Henry Hub prices, increased demand, and freight rates pushed delivered prices up in late 2024, while cooler weather and ample storage can lower them, with prices sometimes hovering around 33–50 €/MWh (equivalent to $10–$15/MMBTU) at the Dutch TTF hub. Cost Breakdown: Base Gas (e.g., U.S. Henry Hub): ~$3–4/MMBTU (in early 2025 estimates). Liquefaction: ~$2–$3.50/MMBTU (fees for turning gas into LNG). Shipping (Freight): Highly variable, $1–$3/MMBTU or more, depending heavily on distance and tanker demand. Regasification: ~$0.50–$1/MMBTU (cost to turn LNG back into gas in Europe). Key Price Drivers: Henry Hub Price: The cost of gas at the source (US). Shipping Demand: Higher demand (like surges in winter) increases freight costs, widening the gap between source and delivered prices. European Storage Levels: Low storage levels and cold weather drive up European spot prices (TTF). Recent Trends (Late 2024/Early 2025): Europe's high prices have attracted record U.S. LNG exports, even pushing prices above Asian markets. While U.S. Henry Hub prices rose, European spot prices (TTF) recently saw lower levels in late 2024 due to milder weather, though cold snaps can quickly reverse this, increasing costs. In essence, it's a market driven by supply, demand, and transport economics, with U.S. LNG often costing significantly more in Europe than pre-2022 pipeline gas." So, somebody is paying $10-15/MMbtu (3-4x the US gas cost) for the European gas price to be the "same" as the US. 20 years ago, the US built LNG import terminals (at the beginning of the shale boom, which unlocked Appalachia gas). Some actually imported LNG. Most of them started up as LNG export terminals, without ever importing LNG. It wasn't as simple as switching two wires and reversing the polarity. It takes $ Billions of dollars, tons of paperwork, and a regulatory nightmare, all of which is at the whim of the current administration. The long haul gas pipelines from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast, were bifurcated, with Appalachia gas supplying both the Northeast US demand and a new Gulf Coast LNG export market.
  7. My initial reaction was the subsea drone hit mostly the dock and less of the submarine. Maybe not. Per wiki, the Kilo Class submarine is 238-242 feet long, depending on the model. I merged a couple of screenshots of the submarines in the harbor, the targeted sub and a random sub at the dock. Bottom line, even though the videos show the explosion at the corner of the dock, it appears the attack may have inflicted more damage to the sub than what you can tell from the recent photos. The red line is ` 240 feet long
  8. Re: The isolationist view of the US relative to the world. Nowhere is this view more impactful than the ignorance of the US, the people and the government, as it relates to oil and gas. The US put an oil embargo on Japan pre-1941, a country that was 100% dependent on imports. They bombed the fuck out of us. The US was late to the party, but the first thing they did was go to Africa to stop Germany's rush to the Arabian oil fields. Prior to 1973, the US was by far, the technological leader in the industry, and the availability of cheap gas across the country was a reality, and an expectation, cause "were Americans". No body cared that most of the oil came from foreign counties. The U.S. and other nations supported Israel in the Yom Kippur War. Saudi Arabia led OPEC in the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973-74, causing domestic oil prices to quadruple, from $3 to $12/bbl, triggering gas shortages, long lines at pumps, stagflation, and a major shift in global energy policy towards conservation and energy independence. (OPEC was modeled on the Texas Railroad Commission) In the US, conservation and energy independence took a back seat to blaming the domestic oil industry for something that happened half way around the world. Something they had no control, or influence over. The couldn't control oil prices, but they could control natural gas prices, a domestic industry. Government regulations controlled interstate gas prices, but not intrastate prices, eventually putting the producing states (Texas) at odds with consuming states (the Northeast). The Iranian Revolution in 1979 was directed at the US, for harboring the Shah, a US/European puppet. Oil prices quadrupled again, to over $40/bbl. Guess who was to blame. Again. This was not all bad. The spread between unregulated oil prices and regulated gas prices gave the Gas Processing Industry, a margin based business, a boost like nothing before or since. In 1979, the O&G industry attracted the best and the brightest. The advice to "The Graduate" in 1967, a single word, came to fruition; "Plastics." As a country, we have been on a 50 year crusade to methodically dismantle the 150 year old domestic industry, in large part, because people just don't understand how it works, or even care. Though there are fewer US companies and much less competition, the domestic oil & gas production is higher than ever before, and the US is still the technological leader in the industry, we just have a lot less influence on world affairs. Which is what an Isolationist wants.
  9. "I’m curious what the intelligentsia on this thread thinks." I believe this thread is the most broad based, informative exchange of information I have been a party too, whether as a student, a professional in the work place, or a casual observer. My limited search capabilities within the thread are frustrating at times, because many of these individual tangents have been discussed at length, multiple times. An occasional refresh is welcomed, as new information becomes available based on the dynamics of a multifaceted war. As cumbersome as it may be, going back and reading older posts is beneficial, as most of the responses today are abbreviated versions of the more in depth analysis from previous posts. I'm guilty of same, as I have posted versions of the same thing many times. The fundamentals stay the same, but the particulars change constantly. With that said, a rereading of Tom Clancy's "The Bear and the Dragon" is on my holiday list. It has always made sense for Russia to be the main supplier of Oil and Gas to Europe and China. Always. It didn't happen until Russia joined the commercial side of the world and made a move to monetize their tremendous natural resources. Their oil & gas industry in many ways is in the same state as the Permian Basin was in the 50's-60's. Well known, but virtually untapped. Russia played nice, negotiated the Nordstream gas contracts w/ Germany and western Europe, and the Sakhalin LNG contracts w/ Exxon, Shell & SE Asia, and opened the door for foreign investment to step in and monetize the resources. And then, Russia's gonna Russia. They invaded Ukraine. At the end of the day, everybody has a price. Russia has available, exportable, relatively cheap Oil & Gas, and no safety or environmental constraints, and is void of a litigious society. Re: Russia Energy When I throw my dart, I peg the Russian refining capacity reduction at ~ 20%. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is a great resource for all things energy. The data is very good, but it is not meant to be a near term analysis. Here is a link to their brief on Russia energy, as of 2024. Country Analysis Brief: Russia Last Updated: July 24, 2025 The 38% of Russian refining capacity offline mentioned by @atomheartbevo's reference in the Carnegie article was a simple calculation. Ukraine targeted and hit 38% of the refining capacity, so as much as 38% of the capacity might be offline. Even with the microscope focused on the US refining industry, getting near term data is hard, as the reporting is such that its better to give the actual data to the government later, rather than giving them preliminary data sooner. Refining capacity is a loose term. You might have 4 units built over the past 80 years that do basically the same thing. The capacity of all 4 is deemed to be the nameplate refinery capacity, when in reality, Unit 4 runs at 100%, Unit 3 runs at 75 %, Unit 2 runs at a variable rate based on demand, and Unit 1 basically mothballed. Refineries "make" more products than the crude they refine. There is a 1-3 % gain across the refinery. Crude oil is a mix of bb's, peas, marbles, ping pong balls, and tennis balls. Refined products are more like the purity components, so when you separate the molecules, the volumes "grow" as there are more empty voids between each ball. A 400,000 BPD refinery would refine a train of tank cars 4 miles long, every day. Refineries have large storage capacities to insulate them from supply/demand disruptions, say a nominal 10 days of storage on each end; in this case, ~ 8,000,000 bbls of storage. One company may report net change to total storage volumes as "refining", where a second company would report actual refine inputs, and a third may report actual refined products made. I expect the data given to the EIA is consistent, but any reporting on industry trade reporting will be all over the board. The current state of Russian refining operating rates is a hard thing to pin down, even before the Ukraine invasion. Russian Nameplate Capacity is ~ 6,500,000 bbl/day (6.5 MM BPD), with a pre-war operating capacity of ~ 5.5 MM BPD, with ~ 17% of the capacity always offline. Of the 5.5 MMBPD normal capacity, estimates of capacity reductions range from 0.5-2.0 MM BPD, or an operating capacity ranging from from 91 to 63%. Some of range could be the difference between October actual volumes v. December estimated throughput volume. Ukraine has mentioned specific refinery columns that were targeted, but confirmation on exactly what was it, and how bad, is virtually non existent. Did they hit the pressure vessel or the lines connected to it? A breach of the large pressure vessel (10+ ft diameter) is normally a total loss, as these are ASME code vessels with non negotiable specifications. That wold be a 6+ month replacement. In Russia, maybe they weld a plate over the hole and call it good. That would take a few weeks or a month. Normally, Russia produces ~ 200% of their internal diesel demand, and ~ 130% of their gasoline demand, with considerably more exports of diesel than gasoline. On a short term daily/weekly basis, a specific refinery going off line may cause spot shortages. Over time, a refinery can change their operations to make more more gasoline and less diesel. The US moves the majority of refined products (90+ % ??) via pipeline to a terminal, and trucks from the terminal to the gas stations. In Russia, other than Moscow and maybe St. Petersburg, most of the refined products appears to move by rail. I combination of a refinery attack, a storage depot attack, and a rail bridge attack in close proximity could cause a product shortage for some period of time.
  10. These are two similar, but unrelated issues; A power plant going down, and refinery operations. There was accident at the Angarsk Irkutsk-9 Combine Heat Power Plant, a 540 MW coal fired facility that provides power and heat to both the city (250,000+) and the Rosneft-Angarsk Refinery (200,000 BPD) co-located at the sight. Angarsk is 3,000 miles from Moscow, and ~ 150 miles north of the central Mongolia, in the middle of nowhere, and I mean nowhere. The Power Plant has 6 units, (capacity of 330 MW), that were built from 1963-69, and 2 units (capacity 210 MW) that were built in the early '80's. It is possible new natural gas fired boilers were added in the last 5 years, but nothing shows any newer additions. An accident occurred on December 7 when a boiler unit at the plant failed, and another boiler was reportedly shut down due to a malfunction a day earlier. Boiler accidents in the US are rare. In Russia, ??? depending on 60-70 year old boilers is not a comforting feeling. "It was reported that all services are on high alert. The emergency regime has been introduced in the Angarsk district in connection with the accident at CHPP-9. Heat supply is limited in 1,546 apartment buildings housing more than 167,000 people and 121 socially significant facilities," the local mayor's office said in a statement." "On Dec. 1, hundreds of motorists were stranded on a stretch of the Baikal Highway, part of the Trans-Siberian Highway, after three days of severe weather brought temperatures near minus 30 degrees Celsius (minus 22 Fahrenheit), heavy snowfall and strong winds. At its peak, the jam stretched roughly 100 kilometers (62 miles) along the southwestern shore of Lake Baikal (~ 50 miles from Angarsk). Some drivers, including families with children, reported running low on fuel, water and food." The logistics chain is always critical, and in remote areas, with minimal infrastructure, during extreme weather conditions, good luck with that. I would think any available power is moving towards the west (Moscow), not the east (Siberia). After 3 years of war and reduced energy availability, there are probably many localized areas that are one event away from a similar situation. One thing they have in their favor, they come from heartier stock than the average Austinite person. The refinery operations is something different. Refinery turnarounds (long term scheduled maintenance, including shut downs, every 4-6 years) are necessary, but often postponed or delayed for any number of reasons, a war being one of them. It is not necessary to shut down the refinery to change the qualities of the products produced. US refineries do it twice a year to transition from the winter blends to the summer blends for gasoline and other transportation fuels. I am not familiar with the different fuel blends for the northern climates. 3 years of attacks on Russian refineries and gas plants, has probably reduced the availability of some of the blending stocks (lighter weight, more volatile) Russia may use in gasoline blending. I know alcohol is an option, but that consumption is prioritized in other areas. Generally, aviation fuel (Kerosine) is a cleaner, filtered diesel that is better in extreme cold. But Diesel has better lubrication properties, so it is better for engines with more moving parts, like car engines v. jet turbines. I would expect the quality control on Russian refined products is poor, especially so for the domestic market. But I'm sure the average Russian has been though similar circumstances before and the black market is able to meet the demand.
  11. That is a sad graphic. Texas is ~ 25th percentile in "Yards before contact" and ~ 27th percentile in "Yards after contact". Over all, Texas is one of the 10 worst non-QB rushing teams in the country. Only 3 SEC teams in the top quartile of either speaks well of SEC defenses, I think. Both UTSA & Texas State punching above their weight.
  12. Glide path similar to a rock. The guys lucky it cleared the window,
  13. That is a complex question. "Phasing out" is a price sensitive term, and human nature generally means anybody will do anything for the right price. Putting the LNG "sanctions" aside, at the end of the day, a spot cargo of Russian LNG will be cheaper than others, simply because the transit time from Russia is less than the US Gulf Coast, or the Middle East, or Australia. The capacity of the two Nordsteam Pipelines was ~ 10 BCF/day, which is ~ 4-5 world class LNG Plants. That is a big hole to fill. Russia's total LNG capacity is ~ 5 BCD, some of which was earmarked for Europe. Some of these came on line recently, in the Arctic and St. Petersburg, and how much they can actually produce is kind of a mystery. It is new enough, and given the challenges of the arctic, and Russia business in general, demonstrating reliability is a prerequisite for longer term contracts. In many cases, the companies/countries that need the LNG are also owners in the liquefaction/export facilities, so they take their ownership share of the LNG in-kind, rather than depending on third party sells. LNG is a very different animal than oil or refined products. In some cases, though there is a point to point "contract" for the LNG, that contract is in limbo until the ship docks at the destination. In times past, it was commonplace to have a ship change direction in transit and go to another destination, without any significant contract repercussions. While on the high seas, it is fair game for the highest bidder. Even within the local gas market, that information is closely guarded, because a huge influx of gas moves the market. US LNG costs will become more expensive, because the underlying demand for natural gas will increase. In the early 2000's, gas was expensive, so the US started building LNG import terminals. The Chenier Plant at Sabine Pass started as an import terminal in 2008. We received LNG imports into Louisiana ~ 2010 (I think we received 4 cargo's), and in 2012, Chenier received a FERC permit to building export facilities. The combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing of shale, unlocked the gas resources, and all bets changed. Biden's election in 2020 changed the narrative, and Russia's Invasion and Nordstream's explosion spiked gas prices, for a bit. The Donald, and new reality of the US stepping in to fill the European void from losing Russian gas is not an issue from a resource/capacity perspective. The price of the LNG is the first big question. Domestic gas prices have doubled in the past few months. Cheap oil stops the drilling in the Permian, which is primarily based on oil economics. Appalachia is all gas, much higher near term gas potential than the Permian, but moving gas south to the Gulf Coast is limited by pipeline capacity. Sending US LNG gas to Europe while increasing domestic gas prices is going to leave a mark. The Eastern US is already seeing increased gas bills because of administrative and infrastructure costs. Layering in higher commodity prices will not be well received. And, as we all appreciate, the whims of a new administration in DC, is hard to predict.
Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business & Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Advertise... Tailgate Donations

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