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PTINS

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  1. This is kind of a big deal. With the new information posted, I was finally able to find the Vladimirskaya Substation on a map. (The connecting lines shown are representations only.) "Strike drones targeted an energy infrastructure facility near the Russian city of Vladimir overnight between November 4 and 5. The strike hit the Vladimirskaya high-voltage substation (750 kV) in the settlement of Energetik, near Vladimir." The statement above in incorrect. "The Vladimirskaya substation is one of the region’s major energy facilities. Its installed capacity is about 4,010 MVA. The substation is a key hub, with numerous 110–750 kV power transmission lines branching out from it, serving the regional power grid. Its stable operation is critical to the reliability and balance of Russia’s power system. It was the second time in a week that Ukrainian drones had hit the facility and set it on fire. Aside from scattered light anti-aircraft fire at the target, the Ukrainian drones seemed to have made their way to the target unimpeded. The Vladimirskaya substation is a key energy facility transferring electricity from the Volga Hydroelectric Power Plant, the Kostroma Power Plant (natural gas-fired), and the Kalinin Nuclear Power Plant to the cities of Vladimir and Ivanovo and their collective regional populations of at least 750,000 residents, as well as serving as a major electricity source for the greater Moscow power grid." I think it is fair to say this is probably the most important electrical substation in Russia, with the main service area being Moscow. This is the second attack in the last month on this Vladimirskaya substation, located ~ 100 miles from Moscow, with the 3 main plants feeding the substation totaling over 10,000 MW of capacity, diversified between Nuclear, Hydroelectric and Natural Gas: Volga Hydroelectric Power Plant 2,735 MW Kostroma (Natural Gas) Power Plant 3,720 MW , targeted this week Kalinin Nuclear Power Plant 4,000 MW For reference the 2 Texas Nukes total 5,000 MW (The South Texas Plant capacity is 2,700 MW, and the Comanche Peak Plant has a capacity of 2,300 MW). Texas just approved the first 765 kV power lines in Texas in April 2025. Anybody surprised that the ERCOT managed power grid in Texas is inferior to Russia's? Sorry, Cheap shot. Everything in Russia is a life support system for Moscow.
  2. I updated my map of the Pokrovsk area. It is in a flat open area, with no significant geographical features (Rivers and hill tops.) Bakhmut had a number of river valleys and well defined "higher ground" areas, which allowed both sides to look down into the city, and inflict damage on the other. While Russia has made significant gains in the general area in 2025, they have only gained ~ 2 miles in the area immediately west of Pokovsk. In Povrovsk, there is still ~ 5 mile gap between the Russian forces, which is basically a bunch of open fields. Not the best area to do sneak and peek, or move quantities of troops and equipment, but Russia's gonna Russia, meat assaults across open grounds hoping Ukraine runs out of bullets.
  3. If you are reading this, I have more in common with you than most people I know. I came here long ago to talk about Texas football; now I spend 3/4's of my time on Surly on this thread, and very little on the football boards. The insight and opinions you share with us are so much more grounded in facts and reality than anything I read elsewhere. Thank you all. Put me down for a round. Not sure where or when, but I'd welcome a meet and greet.
  4. It looks like Bakhmut 2.0. Honestly, for the 1st half of the war, I was immersed in the day-day battles up and down the line. Over time it got very depressing, given the overwhelming superiority Russia had in numbers they could throw at the wall. For Ukraine, I never viewed them as just numbers, but as people. With Ukraine receiving longer range strike weapons, and DEVELOPING their own weapons systems, including drones, and given "permission" to strike Russia and defend themselves, my focus shifted to Ukraine's prosecution of the war in Russia, because it was strategic, and was an arms length war with minimal Ukraine casualties. Pokrovsk has been sobering. The cumulative effect of Ukraine targeting critical Russian infrastructure is going to catch up with Russia at some point, but Ukraine is still losing people every day. It reminds me of how naive I was when I thought we were winning in Vietnam, until I grew up and realized people I knew from Bergstrom didn't come home. But I see how effective Ukraine has been in their targeting deep inside of Russia, and believe they will have similar success along the front lines. "Slava Ukraini!"
  5. And I thought hot-wiring something was so 80's. It looks like they are either routine repairs or just fixing some minor collateral damage. There are no scorch marks, and the piping doesn't look like a bowl of black spaghetti. I'd like to see some photo's and video's of the aftermath of the explosions in the attack videos.
  6. Absolutely. Chase Daniels has a lot of reasons to dislike Texas. His Top 10 Missouri team (2008?) got smoked when Texas jumped out to a 35-0 2nd qtr lead. But, he's an NFL QB who knows his craft, and the differences between the college game and the NFL, and the skills and performances that translates between them. He did a great job of showing the pre-snap alignment and disguised coverages, the WR routes, the options that would, and were, either covered or open, and Arch's reading them one by one, going through his progressions, until he found the open receiver. Or the opposite, recognizing he would have a one on one pre snap and just waiting to make the throw. You can't see some of that from watching TV. Chase was pretty emphatic on a few of them, going through the progressions, and making the throws; "... this is why he will be the #1 draft choice..." Arch recognized the blitz early, anticipated the gaps in coverage, and got the ball out quick, which made the OL look a lot better. He had a bunch of NFL throws Saturday. The way he led Wingo like he did, the defender following him across the field had no chance to get there to make a tackle. If Wingo breaks stride, or jumps, or reaches back, it is just a routine behind the line pass, + or - 2-3 yards. (Chase was very complimentary of Weisner's pass blocking.) Reading 4 pages of this thread is agonizing. How the fuck did you get into Texas? Oh, you were concussed after you graduated? Ooops! "... he missed some throws ..." Really? So did Mahomes, and Dak, and Josh Allen. Everybody misses wide open throws. Ironically, I came here way back when, (pre Shaggy?) to read and chat about Texas football. I avoid this thread most of the time because of the unrealistic expectations that some of you place on a bunch of kids. Arch's advisors wanted him to have 20+ pre-NFL starts for a reason. Like it or not, that comes with some growing pains. Some of the YouTube videos do a great job of analyzing everything that happens before Arch throws the ball, the poor (terrible) play calling, the ole' blocks, the poor route running, the things that make the QB look bad. Maybe a few of you should broaden your horizons, and consider some opinions other than your own, before you make some of your comments.
  7. I have very little specific knowledge of some of my posts, but I can drive Google Earth & search pretty good. I am able to match up information from the posts here and related rabbit holes and provide what you read here. If one had Process Flow Diagrams and Plot Plans of facilities, it would be very easy to dial in GPS coordinates, and hit the critical pieces of equipment. Some of the videos of the hits on Refinery Towers tells me the camera guys knew exactly when and where to start the video. Nobody takes a video of a refinery for shits and giggles, unless they have a reason to do it. You all know better than I, but I think a lot of the USSR technology came from Ukraine. The Antonov 225 (Mira) and her two MIG escorts that came to Oklahoma City in '90-91, that Russia destroyed the first week of the war, were painted in Ukraine colors. Somebody went through the basements and archives and mined the data Ukraine needed to improve their targeting of strategic facilities. I could go back to my posts from the past 3 years (I am not doing it) and get a general idea when Ukraine got better at hitting targets. It is a combination of two different things, better targeting information and better weapons systems. This is the third time in 2 months Ukraine has hit the Sterlitamak Industrial complex; The Power Plant, the Avangard Chemical Plant in October and the Sterlitamak Petrochemical Plant this week. It could be 3 different companies are all the same, but they are all next to each other, with a combined footprint of 4-5 Sq miles. Sterlitamak Petrochemical Plant General Information Manufacturer of petrochemicals products based in Bashkortostan, Russia. The company manufactures styrene-butadiene rubbers, aviation and sports gasoline, multi-product low-tonnage chemicals, high-octane fuel additives and other petrochemical products, thereby helping companies in the production of phenolic antioxidants, used for the production of synthetic rubbers, plastics, fibers, lubricating and transformer oils, as well as for the feed, food and cosmetics industries. They make a lot of weapons related products. If they make the rubber products, given the size of the complex, that probably also make tires. The recent video was shot from the lower LH corner of my screenshot, with the orange rectangle deemed to be the probable location of the explosion and fire, The red polygon in the NE corner is an ''ammunition storage" area, which could be either ammunition, or propelants, or rocket fuels, etc. That is also within the scope of the video, and they do make nice fireballs. From earlier in the war,
  8. Transformers are to Electrical Substations as Process Towers are to Refineries. Substations transform between Lower Voltage (Power Generation) up to High Voltage (transmission lines) and back down to Lower Voltage (distribution systems). The resistance across the transformers generate a lot of heat that must be dissipated, so they have large oil filled radiators and fans to help cool down the equipment. They are designed "fit for purpose" pieces of equipment and are not really interchangeable, and they are not likely to have spares sitting around. Other than arcing power lines, the transformers are about the only thing that burns in a substation. And like process towers, the heat signature of a transformer can be seen from space. 4 of the 5 stations are between Luhansk and the active contact line between Russia & Ukraine forces. Ukraine is unplugging the Russian power grid as they are counter-attacking Russian forces. I think it's going to be dark over there for a bit, and the Russian communications will be more challenging than they already were. (I have not updated my contact lines in quite a while and that info is dated.)
  9. Now this is some quality reporting. A Lat/Long of the fire and a Google Earth photo. "It’s just a mathematical truth. We caused much greater damage to the Russian Federation through direct action than any economic levers of influence that had been introduced on them until now," he added. It looks like the netting stopped the drones, so Ukraine blew up the pipelines the old fashioned way. HUR said the strike targeted the Koltsevoy (Ring) pipeline, a 400-kilometer-long fuel artery used to supply Russia’s armed forces with gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel from refineries in Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod, and Moscow. I'm betting the future holds some long range missile strikes hitting the storage facilities were the refinery pipelines cross the Moscow Ring pipelines. I'll try to find these when I get a chance. The toe bones are connected the the ankle bone, and the ankle bone is connected to the leg bone..., etc. "The green oil tanker in the photo is approximately 820 feet (250 meters) long and 145 feet (44 meters) wide is typically classified as an Aframax vessel. An Aframax tanker typically carries around 750,000 barrels of oil. The range is generally between 500,000 to 800,000 barrels, depending on the specific design and type of oil (crude vs. refined product). Operational Use: Aframax tankers are popular because their size allows them to access most ports globally, including those without very large crude oil terminals. They are commonly used for short- to medium-haul crude oil transportation in regions such as the Black Sea, the North Sea, the Caribbean, and the Mediterranean." The info provided puts the crosshairs on the pipeline manifold serving the berth furthest into the sea, away from the storage facilities. I think that means there a massive piece of steel and iron laying at the bottom of the Black Sea where the green tanker used to be. Equally important, the pipeline manifold itself is probably destroyed to the point that the isolation valves are inoperable at best, and destroyed at worst, meaning that oil flow cannot be stopped at the green berth at the end of the pipelines. The only means of stopping flow at the green tanker means the pipelines need to be shut off further upstream. A similar pipeline manifold exists at the loading berth with the red tanker, with the laterals and manifold 'teeing" off the mainlines. In this case, isolating the mainlines because of the fire at the green berth means the valves are closed further upstream of the red berth also, making that berth inoperable. A wider view shows that the Taupse terminal has 4 loading berths, each with a similar pipeline/manifold design as the green and red berths. The "Taupse Loading Manifold" shown is the first point at which the fire at the green berth can be isolated to stop the flow of oil to the fire. To isolate the fire at the green berth, the entire loading terminal is isolated. It appears that for the foreseeable future, crude and products exports from Taupse are not happening. Please note the Tuapse Refinery proximate to the export terminal, Russia's 8th largest with a capacity of 240,000 BPD. Tuapse was probably only exporting limited refined products, but that does not appear to be an option for a while. Tuapse and the entire coast is somewhat isolated by the mountainous terrain along the coast, and the rail line serving that area is a twisty, turning line ~ 50 miles long before you get to flatter terrain. Damaging the export facilities won't shut down the refinery, but the logistics of moving all the refined products out by rail just became more complicated.
  10. You are correct, Sir, Russia is simply writing the checks, and international E&C Companies are doing the heavy lifting. Russia watched the LNG Boom 15-20 years ago from the cheap seats, and decided to get in on the action. The decision they made to monetize their World Class gas reserves and build export infrastructure was among the best decisions Russia ever made. Invading Ukraine was by far the worst. Though the US and Russia have somewhat comparable gas production, the last 3 years of mousing around on Google Earth has given me a different perspective. I am familiar with most producing basins in the lower 48, and Russia's reserves are on another level. The US production is technology driven; 10,000 ft horizontal laterals on wells, coupled with using 5-10 million gallons of fluids to fracture the formation, and "Drill, baby Drill." If you stop drilling, the gas production falls like a rock. Layer in the weather vane political climate in the US, and you end up with a tremendous resource and technological marvel hampered by the idiocy of the US, including the voters, and the officials they elect, and the mental midgets they appoint. The gas fields in Siberia, and everywhere else in Russia, look nothing like the US in terms of the number of wells. It seems like it is more like the Middle East ~ 100 years ago, drill a well and stand back and watch the money flow. The notion that Russia has their shit together the way Chevron developed their Permian assets is so funny to even think about it. Oil has always been a waterborne export fuel, because the supply-demand fundamentals in the Middle East were basically a 90-10 split. Produce it, put in on a boat, take it, and sell it somewhere. Targeting the Russian refineries is taking care of that. Gas is not that way. You only produce it if you have a place to move it, store it, or sell it. There are just a few major gas pipelines between the large gas producing countries and their neighbors. The Middle East had very little demand until 20-30 years ago. The US is mostly self contained, with Canada and Mexico. The USSR, and their satellites, was also basically self contained. Following the breakup of the USSR, Russia decided to join the real world and monetized their gas reserves, selling to Western Europe, China, and building LNG Plants and Terminals in the Arctic, in western Russia and in the Pacific. LNG required countries on both sides of the water to spend significant capital to deliver and receive gas. This was a big win-win for all involved. SE Asia has an insatiable demand for energy, and they also have world class engineering and construction capabilities. This is a very exclusive marketplace between countries, their nationalized energy companies, their engineering and construction companies, and the big utilities that consume the gas and produce electricity. Russia always had the gas, they said come and get it, and they did. I don't see much replacement until the fighting stops. A normal refinery turnaround might have a 1,000+ temporary workers for a few months, mostly skilled laborers. And nobody is firing missiles at them. I don't think Russia had many of those guys, before they invaded Ukraine. I'm not sure where Russia would get the 80,000 BPD refinery towers they need. My 1st guess would be South Korea, and that ain't happening. It seems the phrase "LNG" never made it into the 19 or 20 tranches of sanctions that have been placed on Russia. For good reason. 100,000,000 bbl per day of oil is produced and sold, to make ~ 100,000,000 bbl per day of refined products, a large portion of which is seasonal demand. Once refined, it is a fungible product, that loses its identity. LNG is complicated, for many reasons. LNG is imported by energy starved NATIONS with limited domestic production, most of which is used for power generation, and heat. Those nations include China, Japan, and South Korea, (most of SE Asia) and the "private" companies in each country, are the buyers of the LNG, the builders of the LNG facilities, and in a lot of cases, the interest owners in the LNG Plants. In no particular order, they want a return on their investment, and they want lights, electricity, and heat. But they want all of it. Targeting an LNG tanker and it's cargo, or any large Gas or LNG facility, could be deemed to be an "attack" on China, or Japan, or anybody else similarly situated. China, in some way, shape or form, probably put up most of the investment in the $50+ Billion Power of Siberia 1 gas project. On paper, maybe it looks the same as the Nordstream Pipelines. But the Nordtream pipelines could be repaired in a few months, quickly, and cheap (So Russia did do it, huh?). Replacing a $10 Billion asset, would take $10+ Billion, and 5-10 years, and the replacement energy would cost ~ 50% premium. As Jack Ryan was told, "You're talking about several billion dollars of state property; they're going to want it back." Ukraine appears to have created well defined corridors through Russia, send in a bunch of drones and missiles, and blow the fuck out of everything they come across, refineries, chemical plants, industrial plants, fuel depots, power plants, electrical substations, etc. My map of some of the Russian infrastructure Ukraine has damaged or destroyed, ... just in the past 3 months. Texas is about 10% larger than Ukraine. It's not hard to believe that the local towns and regions in Russia are circling the economic wagons. No place to go work, no money, no food, no support. When the main employers and revenue generators are no mas, and the state that provided everything stops being the state, what options are left? Russia is fucked, no matter what they do, and no matter when they do it. Fuck Around and Find Out. Bitch!
  11. Relax, guys, I already took care of it for you. The reality is, how many significant oil pipelines exist between Russia and China? "Doughnut, babe. Nothing. Zip. Zilch." - Hunt Stevenson (Michael Keaton) in Gung Ho The waterborne crude oil exports from Russia to China is all there is. TLDR However, there is one major gas pipeline between the Bear and the Dragon, the Power of Siberia 1 Pipeline. This $55 Billion project, commissioned in 2021, included the 56" diameter, 1,860 mile pipeline from Kovykta Gas field in the Irkutsk Oblast (aren't you glad you played Risk?) to the China Border. I did check; there is a 9,500 ft mountain range they went around. The Kovykta Gas Field is over 1,200 miles southeast of the Urengoy Gas Field in Siberia that supplies used to supply Eastern Europe, via a 2,800 mile pipeline. The good news is the natural gas produced here is the really good stuff, that contains helium and is rich in Natural Gas Liquids. A Gas Processing Plant requires a cryogenic plant operating at ~ -170 °F to separate the NGLs.. Helium processing is way out of my comfort zone... "Helium extraction plant uses cryogenic distillation to reach temperatures as low as -269°C (-452°F), just a few degrees above absolute zero. These extreme temperatures are necessary to separate helium from the other gases found in natural gas because helium has the lowest boiling point of any element. " The really bad news is the economies of scale you need to monetize the resource is mind boggling, and it is conveniently located literally in the middle of fucking nowhere, in an area with design conditions of -60 ℉, and a freeze depth of 13 ft. The Total "Power of Siberia Costs" included: Gas Production Facilities $ 6.16 Billion Gas Pipeline $15.07 Billion Power Plant (160 MW) $ 8.47? Billion Gas Plant $13.70 Billion Chemical Plant $11.60 Billion $55.00 Billion The overall projecticludes the entire vertical integration of natural gas processing; Natural gas Production to Pipelineto Gas Processing Plant to NGL fractionation Plant to Ethylene Plant (cracking ethane to make ethylene and cracking propane to make propylene) to Polyethylene/polyPropylene Plant (plastic pellets). Everything you need to get from raw natural gas to plastic pellets that become everything plastic that is "Made in China." For a processing guy, it doesn't get any better than this. It is truly amazing that Russian can build something like this, yet they invade Ukraine so they can take the toilets. Some Russian Gas Processing Porn; The first column of NGL/NRU unit Natural Gas Liquid/Nitrogen Rejection Unit) in the P1 section of Amur Gas Processing Plant was officially put into operation on May 1st, 2021. By far, the largest process vessel I have ever seen.
  12. The Ryazan Oil Refinery (RNPK, part of Rosneft) was attacked last night. This is was the #3/4 largest refinery in Russia, with a stated capacity of ~340,000 BPD, and had been operating at ~250,000 the past year. The fire broke out near the catalytic cracking or hydrotreating unit... Actual processing in recent years has been around 12-13 million tons per year. In August, following drone strikes, the plant temporarily reduced production capacity (temporarily operating with one large unit—approximately half its capacity). Today, it may have been finished off! This marks at least the third Ukrainian strike on the Ryazan refinery since August. On Aug. 2, the plant reportedly shut down two of its three primary refining units after an attack, and on Sept. 5, one more unit was taken offline, according to Reuters sources.
  13. The Makhachkala Refinery is located on the Caspian Sea, which is landlocked, and looks to be primarily for making fuel and loading the Caspian waterborne traffic, like a big gas station. The capacity is ~ 20,000 BPD, well below the top 25 refineries over 100,000 BPD, averaging ~ 220,000 BPD. (I didn't know it even existed.) However, it is unique in being situated on the Caspian; there does not appear to be any similar facility on the Caspian anywhere else, including Russia and Iran. If Makhachkata is offline, the gas station is closed, and you'll have to find your products elsewhere. Iran was probably getting refined oil products from Russia, but those may have been been curtailed in recent months. Not sure what else Russia can give to Iran that has any value (food?), or that Russia doesn't need (weapons). They damn sure don't need crude oil. It is noteworthy that Ukraine is getting towards the bottom of the list for refinery targets. It has to be comforting to shoot at targets with a heat signature that can be seen from space. Most of the refineries and almost all of the gas plants I've been to were in remote locations, as stand alone facilities. Most US gas processing plants migrated to purchase power to facilitate environmental permitting and compliance with regulations, and limiting their emissions as much as practical. If you don't mind, where is your facility? No company name, please.
  14. Fred had me when he talked about playing OU; "They better have their head gear strapped on tight!'" I think this needs to be the staple of the offense, to get Arch in motion, by design, and away from a "pocket" that looks more like a jail break. I would think in HS he threw on the run a lot and is more comfortable when he's moving, by choice.
  15. The Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant is the biggest power generating station in the north-western region of the united energy system of Russia. Smolensk NPP has an outer appearance similar to that of Chernobyl NPP units 3-4, as both are later generation RBMKs. (Hint: Smolensk does not have a Sarcophagus over one of the reactors.) The three RBMK-1000 reactors of Smolensk NPP were commissioned in 1982-1990 (First Criticality for each unit Unit 1: September 10, 1982; Unit 2: April 9, 1985; Unit 3: December 29, 1989, with grid connection shortly thereafter).[4] The reactors of Smolensk NPP are the improved versions of RBMK with a number of innovative safety systems As you would expect, there is a very large substation near the plant, less than 1/2 mile from the reactor buildings, separated by a water canal. Ukraine looks like they are dialed in to the point they can hit specific towers. But Ukraine needs to stay the fuck away from the nukes!!! I know I joked about "Aim small. miss small" and "This man can hit us any time he wants", but damn. Zelensky showing off his big brass balls to "the Donald." Hmmm? Is that why Trump doesn't like Zelensky? Trump can't take Zelensky balls deep like he can Putin. FYI, most refineries generate their own power for a couple of reasons; they need the low pressure steam and waste heat in the process areas to heat the bottom of the towers, and more important, generated power is more reliable than purchased power.
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