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PTINS

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by PTINS

  1. If you boned Dell's wife and left her looking like this, you don't need Dell, you just got the wife, and her half is enough. If the BIG is standing behind Washington, Washington and the BIG should file a Tortious Interference claim against LSU and the SEC. With the filing and the responses, it would not get settled prior to the fall, which means the POS doesn't get to play football in the fall for either team, and if the POS plays somewhere else, he doesn't get a dime. Escalating this from Wash v. LSU to the BIG v. the SEC would force the issue that the rats nest of the varied laws and regulations and guidelines do not work in concert with each other, to the detriment of all parties, and needs to be resolved.
  2. It is a matter of perspective, but the US Oil & Gas Industry is nowhere what the perception is. Production volumes have increased considerably in the past 10-15 years, but the number of companies and their employees is much, much smaller. Where possible, everything is done on a contract basis, eliminating the feast or famine hiring and firing of days gone by. There are 4 Integrated oil companies ("Big Oil or Super Majors" w/ Production & Refining/Petrochemicals) of note in the US (Exxon, Chevron, Conoco & Phillips, & Marathon). All of the "independents" listed are either midstream (pipeline & processing companies) or refining companies, focused on the US Lower 48 & Canada, with limited international exposure outside of that. None of them are exploration/production companies, the smaller segment that drills wells and is most reactive to shorter term economic cycles. The 2023 Revenue for the 4 largest Integrated US companies was $1,098 Billion, and for the all of the largest US Oil & Gas companies was $1,634 Billion (12 companies with +$30 Billion in 2023 Revenue). The 2023 Revenue for the 4 largest non-O&G Companies was $1,845 Billion. Walmart: $612.3 billion (United States) Amazon: $514.0 billion (United States) Apple: $394.3 billion (United States) UnitedHealth Group: $324.2 billion (United States) US total exports of crude oil & petroleum products & natural gas liquids (NGL) is ~ 10 MM BPD, with a significant portion of that going to Europe (transportation fuels) & SE Asia (NGL/petrochemical feedstocks). Given the symbiotic relationship between crude oil and the finished products, it is prudent to consider how the US "activities" on the supply/crude side impact the relations with our customers on the product side. Approximately 40% of those product exports go to China, with ~ 75% of that being the NGL volumes for petrochemical plants. Some of those petrochemical plants are partners w/ US affiliates, the aforementioned integrated companies. Following is the listing of the largest Oil & Gas companies by Revenue, highlighted as noted. US Integrated (Production and Refining/Petrochemicals) - 4 companies US Independent (Production, or Midstream (pipeline & processing) or Refining) - 8 companies Somewhat aligned w/ US, IMO Somewhat hostile w/ US, IMO Largest oil and gas companies by revenue in $US Billion # Company Name Country 2022 2023 1 Saudi Aramco Saudi Arabia 400.4 604.3 2 Sinopec China 424.8 478.5 3 China National Petroleum Corporation China 435.1 435.1 4 ExxonMobil United States 285.6 413.6 5 Shell United Kingdom 272.6 386.2 6 TotalEnergies France 205.8 285.8 7 BP United Kingdom 157.7 248.8 8 Chevron Corporation United States 162.4 246.2 9 Marathon Petroleum United States 119.9 179.9 10 Valero Energy United States 113.9 176.3 11 Phillips 66 United States 114.8 175.7 12 Equinor Norway 88.7 150.8 13 Eni Italy 90.5 139.3 14 Lukoil Russia 128.3 128.3 15 Rosneft Russia 121.1 124.9 16 Reliance Industries India 107.0 124.0 17 Petrobras Brazil 83.9 124.0 18 Pemex Mexico 72.6 122.7 19 Indian Oil India 99.8 119.5 20 Eneos Holdings Japan 99.3 115.6 21 Iraq National Oil Company Iraq 75.6 115.0 22 Engie France 57.9 98.9 23 PTT Thailand 70.7 96.3 24 Pertamina Indonesia 57.5 95.9 25 Energy Transfer Partners United States 67.4 89.8 26 ONGC India 87.0 87.0 27 Petronas Malaysia 59.8 85.4 28 Repsol Spain 61.6 82.9 29 ConocoPhillips United States 45.8 82.1 30 Gazprom Russia 138.7 80.0 31 Sonatrach Algeria 34.0 76.9 32 Idemitsu Kosan Japan 60.8 72.8 33 SOCAR Azerbaijan 45.5 70.0 34 OMV Group Austria 42.0 68.2 35 Bharat Petroleum India 58.8 68.0 36 SK Innovation South Korea 42.1 64.4 37 China National Offshore Oil China 38.1 62.7 38 PKN Orlen Poland 32.3 62.6 39 Hindustan Petroleum India 50.8 59.4 40 Guanghui Energy China 58.6 58.6 41 Enterprise Products United States 40.7 58.1 42 Plains All American Pipeline United States 42.0 57.3 43 Cenovus Energy Canada 38.9 55.1 44 QatarEnergy Qatar 34.9 53.8 45 Kuwait Petroleum Corporation Kuwait 52.7 52.7 46 Ecopetrol Colombia 27.5 47.8 47 GS Caltex South Korea 31.0 46.8 48 PBF Energy United States 27.3 46.8 49 Suncor Energy Canada 32.7 44.9 50 Centrica United Kingdom 41.6 41.6 51 CPC Corporation Taiwan 31.9 41.0 52 Enbridge Canada 37.5 40.9 53 Petrovietnam Vietnam 27.1 39.8 54 OQ Oman 39.1 39.1 55 HF Sinclair United States 38.2 38.2 56 Occidental Petroleum United States 26.3 37.0 57 Cheniere Energy United States 33.4 33.4 58 CEPSA Spain 26.4 32.8 59 Canadian Natural Resources Canada 26.2 32.5 60 Empresas Copec Chile 30.7 30.7 61 Surgutneftegas Russia 25.6 25.6 62 Transneft Russia 14.6 14.6 63 PDVSA Venezuela 11.0 11.0 64 National Iranian Oil Company Iran no info no info Flat maps are hard to interpret, but Greenland still large, ~ 27% the size of the US Lower 48, or more than 3 times the size of Texas.
  3. In my youth, I formed the opinion that democracy works for an educated populace. I still believe that. However, as I realized a long time, that no longer applies to the US. That is complicated by the evolution of US policy to a binary state, either or, with nothing in between. We are either "Who cares what happens over there" or "Who cares, we take what we want." I am more pissed than disillusioned. We lived at Clark AFB in the Philippines when I was 2-4 year old, and my father was stationed in Taiwan in the late 60's. I have wanted to go back there all my life, and now I'm not sure that's such a good idea.
  4. "My Venezuela experience as head of trading in the region for Cargill. Cargill was/is the leading producer of critical staple ingredients such as flour, pasta, vegetable oil, and rice in VZ. I am not saying I agree with grabbing the dictator, but I did have a front row seat to the damage a kleptocracy did to innocent people. 1. The government took over our "minute rice" facility at gunpoint because we were "gouging" the nation's poor. The government was never able to run the plant. It never ran again. It was returned years later with no equipment inside 2. There are 1000's of generals in the army. They are each given a slice of the economy to loot. The large number of generals made it difficult to organize a coup against the regime. 3. The government opened grocery stores and sold staples below the cost we sold them to the government. In theory they used petro oil money to lower grocery prices. Our regular grocery outlets were forced out of business. When the government demanded we sell them products below cost we simply had to shut down. The populous became ever more dependent on the government handouts. (PS this is the mayor of New York City's proposal. 4. Dollars- We needed dollars to go buy raw materials like wheat from places like the US and Canada. The government would periodically allocate us some dollars that could only be spent for raw materials and freight. Eventually only the local companies that can and would pay bribes got dollar allocations. We had several facilities closed for lack of raw material 5. My employees liked working for Cargill. The office was an armed compound with access to a gym, high speed internet, global communications, and a weekly box of basic staples. Cargill provided a safe and secure environment if only for the working hours. 6. Employees became very close to others inside the apartment building. Going out on the street with a desperate population was not advisable. 7. I needed wood pallets for feed. We tried to export wood pallets to swap for grain. We refused to pay the bribes it would take to export the pallets 8. I once tried to set up a closed loop wheat planting to flour mill supply chain. A. They came and stole all the seed wheat for food. When we tried to ship in seed wheat in containers via US donors there was no way to get it out of the port without it being stolen 9. Livestock- Our feed business completely collapsed. Even if you could raise a pig, you couldn't defend it from being stolen. People with guns were hungry. 10. Employees- In the end my highly skilled team alone with other highly educated people chose to leave. Cargill often found jobs for them in other Latin countries. The regime was more than happy to see the well-educated leave the country. Setting these employees up with high quality stable jobs after fleeing remains one of the best things I ever did in my career. No one remembers millions in trading earnings. This is a short list. In my opinion the first money spent needs to happen now and it needs to be food. The US is already on the clock. The current regime does not care if it starves the population. The orgy of theft will actually accelerate if they believe their days are numbered. VZ should be an outstanding customer of US grown ag products. Rice, bread wheat, veg oil ect. Feed the people first. Jeff Kazin Former head trading Cargill"
  5. Trump teases meeting with oil executives following Maduro arrest Speaking to House Republicans today, Trump teased his upcoming meeting with US oil manufacturing executives this week. “You know what that’s about. We got a lot of oil to drill, which is going to bring down oil prices even further,” the president said, telegraphing his plans to regain control of production in Venezuela. Nothing incentivizes a bunch of oily's to spend billions of $$$ they don't have in a quagmire to increase oil production, so we can "bring oil prices down even further." The Guardian - Trump calls Caracas strikes 'amazing' and 'brilliant'
  6. The two most important phrases I learned in my career: "I don't know, but I'll find out." "I understand what you said, without agreeing with what you said." This is going to turn into a shit storm. Venezuela was in a state of unbridled chaos all on their own. The dilapidated state of the oil industry is well known, but that pales in comparison to not being able to feed the people, per this post and as Peter Zeihan alluded too. The Donald just gave the Venezuela government an out, a Magic Johnson touch pass to shift the blame for the chaos, to the US. This has the potential to turn into a Katrina-like cluster fuck. "... We're (the US) in charge." "Can you get us something to eat?" "Wait, what?
  7. All Texas needs is a good initial burst and acceleration. That gets you positive yardage and moves the chains. Occasionally, the plays go like you draw. them up, and you get the long TD's. Yes, it would be a bonus to get high end 100M speed, but that should not be attribute #7. This. Texas needs quality players. We might need a high end WR. It is also possible 1 of our 5* WR actually plays like a 5* WR. This pisses me off more than Tom Herman's antics. Get a big lead, control the game, put the offense in a box, play prevent defense that folds like a cheap tent, and squeak out a one possession game. Those style points, or lack there of, is the difference between being in the playoffs and watching them. How about we at least try "All Gas, No brakes!" Go full throttle, get a big lead, feather in the younger guys with the experienced guys, and let our high end recruits see the field and get some game experience. Any quality skill position player is probably gone in 3 years whether he red shirts or not. Redshirting a WR thinking he needs, or will be here, for 5 years is way beyond ignorant.
  8. Operated by ExxonMobil Guyana Limited (45%), with Chevron Corporation (30%) and CNOOC (China National Offshore Oil Company, 25%) as partners I can't see this happening. These are OIL COMPANIES, "Big Oil", the scourge of mankind, the reason for everything bad in your life. They are publicly traded companies, with institutional investors and pension funds, and every regulatory agency known to man looking over their shoulders on everything they do. Staying within the law is kind of a biggie. Their prudent planning and management, with a Wall Street approved capital expenditure program, has allowed them to ride out the storm from oil prices dropping by 50% in 3 years. There response was to producer more oil the old fashioned way; they bought it form somebody else they bought out the other companies. I'm kidding, but not really. The Permian development is an ideal play that can be ramped up and down very fairly quickly, within reason. Starting idle rigs is easy. Building new rigs takes a lot longer. Oil companies don't have the kind of cash reserves that tech companies have; (i) they aren't that big, and (ii) that is asking for government intervention. Will the federal government dictate public companies take government money and spend it on a flyer? Seems like they did something like that before. Giving banks money to loan to consumers is a bit different than forcing them to invest moneys on a high risk venture with a 5-10 year investment profile and 10-20 year payout period. BP's one well "Oops!!" cost them ~ $60 Billion; Are the feds going to backstop that possibility? Not to mention, similar assets have been nationalized before. Twice. There is nothing from this administration that points towards a comprehensive discussion with the principle players, before they pulled the trigger. Kidnapping Maduro was the easy part. Now what?
  9. @atomheartbevo , we should get a beer and a dog some time. I'm in Austin. I have a display of golf balls from 49 places and companies I've accumulated over the years. All the places are still there. The majority of the companies are not, and the people that gave them to me are all retired, or have passed on. The industry I grew up in is down to British Petroleum and Royal Dutch Shell, and Exxon, Chevron and Conoco/Phillips, a bunch of smaller independents, and a handful of midstream companies. That is the exploration and production side of the US oil industry (not gas), 3 super-majors with a disciplined capital investment plan, and a lot of independents that aren't in a hurry to drill for $58 oil. I can't name the Donald's Secretary of Energy, and I don't care enough to look, but i'm guessing he's a tall, white, male and probably knows how to put gas in a car. Probably a drinking buddy of "Whiskey Pete's." The 3 US companies all basically said "no comment" in the few stories I read. Chevron is the dominate producer in the Permian Basin, and in the process of moving out of California, which will look like a long, bitter divorce, from a hostile government. They are the second largest interest owner, behind Kazakhstan, in the Caspian oil production, and are in the middle of dealing with Ukraines attack on the Caspian loading facilities, ~ 1,000,000 BPD. Chevon has been prudent in consolidating their worldwide portfolio to fewer efficient and profitable ventures, and has been systematically moving ex-pats back to the US for over 10 years. Chevron/Texaco have been nationalized be Venezuela twice and still has a presence there. Exxon is Exxon. They don't want partners, unless they have too. They are always the biggest, and an easy target, because they have the most. They are usually right, but that doesn't matter, they still get sued and pay, because it's easier and cheaper. just swallowed Pioneer Resources to strengthen their position in the Permian. They were probably the biggest loser w/ Russia's self-detonation, and probably will be one of the first western companies to go back and pick up the pieces. Exxon has also have been nationalized by Venezuela twice, and sued and won, once. They still haven't been paid. Conoco and Phillips, are now separate companies, again, upstream and downstream, with joint "ownership/control" of the midstream assets in the middle. They are both 150 year old Oklahoma grown companies, that have select positions in the international space, and are in the midst of a 20-25% global staff reduction. Like Exxon, they have also have been nationalized by Venezuela twice, and sued and won, once. They still haven't been paid. All 3 have a lot on their plates already, have a vested interest in Venezuela, and they have also been burned, twice. Unlike the military, or CIA, or whatever, they don't have the equivalent of a Delta Force or Seal Team they can mobilize and deploy overnight to restore order. If I, or anybody like me, went back to work (I won't), I would start by asking a lot of questions, and I'm sure all I would get back are blank looks. The first time I went to West Virginia in the 80's was ... different. No way I would take a recon trip to Venezuela right now. It's not like your starting from scratch, but in a lot of ways, you are. Most important, whatever happens in the next few week, will probably not be embraced by the American populace, and more important, I don't think our next President will follow in the Donald's footsteps. I just can't see those companies going forward anytime soon. But, I also swore I would never live in Houston and work for an oil company. But when they put the money on the table, I spent most of my adult life working for energy companies, and lived in Houston 4 different times. It's not for me, but ... make stupid choices, win stupid prizes, or, my favorite, ... fuck around and find out.
  10. " ...we should probably secure the country first..." "Current prices" are not the same for everybody. The component of US oil & gas production costs attributable to taxes, our litigious society and insurance costs, and safety and environmental costs are not issues with most other countries. Other countries net a much higher percentage of the current price than US companies realize. The US is different in that if you drill, you have more oil. If you don't drill, it declines at 15-20% per year. We have already been through the primary, secondary and tertiary phases of oil recovery, and are back to the primary phase, on steroids this time. Venezuela has arguably the highest oil reserves in the world. Current production is ~ 600,000 BPD v. a peak of ~ 3,600,000 BPD. ~ 3,000,000 BPD x $75/bbl x 365 = $82 Billion/year, with a "B" Put me in the, "What the fuck are we doing?" column. This is 100% political BS. And whatever the Donald does, will be undone, when he is gone. But it's hard as hell getting the toothpaste back in the tube A large part of the US refining Industry was "retooled" in the 80'-90's to refine a slate of heavy, sour crude from Mexico & Canada, Venezuela, and other places. Most of what I knew about Venezuela's oil industry I forgot about about 20 years ago. Here is a graph of their historical oil production: Some key dates: 1970 Venezuela oil production peaks at over 3.5 MMBPD 1976 Nationalization of the Venezuelan oil industry, creating Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA, "ped-e-vesa") , the state-owned oil and gas company of Venezuela. 1984 Oil production dropped to ~1.5 MMBPD after the nationalization. 1995 Oil production increases to over 3 MMBPD with sharing agreements w/ western oil companies. PDVSA & partners was an efficient partnership. 2002 Chávez, crippling and bleeding PDVSA to fund his social agenda, resulted in PDVSA employees going on strike, starting the decay of the domestic industry. 2007, PDVSA's renationalization program; Assets of ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips were expropriated in 2007 after they declined to restructure their holdings to give PDVSA majority control; Total, Chevron, Statoil and BP agreed and retained minority shares in their Venezuelan projects. Basically, the western companies started heading towards the exits. 2016 @PTINS pushed away from the table and moves home to Austin. Okay, not sure what caused the precipitous drop, but it coincides with the shale boom in the Permian, led by Chevron, Exxon & Conoco. Though the US production volumes are sufficient to meet domestic demand, the US exports ~ 3.5 MMBPD of light crude oil and imports similar quantities of heavy crude oil. The renationalization in 2007, after western oil companies had spent $$$$ to rebuild the oil industry, did not sit well with a lot of people. Exxon and Conoco, sued, and won, I think, but I doubt either of them ever received anything back. I think federal, state and local taxes will prevent that from happening. Whatever has caused the decline in oil production down to 500,000 BPD, it won't come back by simply opening a valve. The oil is heavy and sour, and requires significant investment and time to reverse the decline. Please note the fresh air equipment John Wayne is wearing. The oil & gas has high concentrations of hydrogen sulfide; extremely toxic, like one breath and you die. The big US companies are the largest producers in the Permian Basin, the shooting fish in a barrel Permian Basin; the same companies that got fucked, and then fucked again by Venezuela. I can't see them hurrying up and doing anything in V, even if they could. They have all made huge acquisitions in the past few years, are consolidating operations, and have had large staff reductions in the past few years, all under the umbrella of oil prices that are half of what they were 3 years ago. Nobody, not the US, the Saudi's, Russia, nor OPEC, are wanting to see a flood of oil coming from Venezuela any time soon. I expect there will continue to be upheaval in the world market, but not from an increase in Venezuela oil production.
  11. I think Texas had 5 drops in the first half, Parker and Wingo with 2 each. Those guys should be carrying a football with them every place they go.
  12. "CATCH THE FUCKING BALL!!!!!!!" Was this after the 1st or 2nd drop, before halftime? The fucking announcers blamed Arch for the pass being a little off target after 40+ yards, but it still hit both of PL's hands. Wingo also had two 1st half drops. Neither should have played after that.
  13. On Colemans' highlight reel, most of his first few are contested catches going high up in the air to get the ball. I think Wingo had 1 catch where he went high to get it, and it was uncontested with no one anywhere close to him. I don't think Wingo even knew that going up to get the ball was allowed until he saw Arch do it. He may be the fastest runner on the team, but nowhere close to being a great receiver.
  14. BBC; Russian general killed by car bomb in Moscow, officials say A Russian general has been killed in a car bombing in Moscow, officials have said. Russia's Investigative Committee said Lt Gen Fanil Sarvarov died on Monday morning after an explosive device planted under a car detonated. He is the third military official to have been killed in bomb attacks in the Russian capital over the last year. Sarvarov, 56, was the head of the armed forces' operational training department, the committee said. It added one theory being investigated was that the bomb was planted with the involvement of Ukrainian intelligence services. Ukraine has not commented. Sarvarov died in hospital as a result of his injuries, the committee said, adding it had opened an investigation into murder and illegal trafficking of explosives. Investigators have been sent to the scene, in a car park near an apartment block in the south of Moscow. Images from the area show a badly damaged white Kia Sorento with the doors blown out, surrounded by other vehicles. According to Russian media, Sarvarov previously took part in combat operations during the Ossetian-Ingush conflict and the Chechen wars in the 1990s and early 2000s, and also led operations in Syria between 2015-2016. Reuters Investigators work near a destroyed car after a blast from an explosive deviceReuters Investigators could be seen working at the scene on Monday morning Vladimir Putin was informed of Sarvarov's death immediately, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a number of military officials and high-profile individuals have been targeted in the Russian capital. Darya Dugina, the 29-year-old daughter of a prominent nationalist figure and Putin close ally, was killed in a suspected car bombing in 2022. Gen Yaroslav Moskalik was killed in a car bomb attack last April, while Gen Igor Kirillov died in December 2024 when a device hidden in a scooter was detonated remotely. A Ukrainian source later told the BBC that Kirillov was killed by Ukraine's security service, though this was never confirmed on the record. As a matter of policy, Ukraine never officially admits or claims responsibility for targeted attacks. AP; Car bomb kills Russian general in Moscow MOSCOW (AP) — A car bomb killed a Russian general on Monday, the third such killing of a senior military officer in just over a year. Investigators said Ukraine may be behind the attack. Lt. Gen. Fanil Sarvarov, head of the Operational Training Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces’ General Staff, died from his injuries, said Svetlana Petrenko, the spokesperson for Russia’s Investigative Committee, the nation’s top criminal investigation agency. He was 56. “Investigators are pursuing numerous lines of inquiry regarding the murder. One of these is that the crime was orchestrated by Ukrainian intelligence services,” Petrenko said. Since Moscow sent troops into Ukraine nearly four years ago, Russian authorities have blamed Kyiv for several assassinations of military officers and public figures in Russia. Ukraine has claimed responsibility for some of them. It has not yet commented on Monday’s death.
  15. "Run and hide asshole. Run and hide."
  16. Not sure who. I don't remember if is was Bobby or Gerry or some other $9.95er, or a poster here, but i read it early in the process. Time to push all the chips in the pile.
  17. You had me at Intensity. I saw the tag line on phone last night... "PK Fired" ...WT holy Fuck?????? "Muschamp ..." Oh, Ok. Sorry about PK, but ... "... when you can upgrade, do it every time. he has produced some of the best and most physical defenses we've had in a long, long time stop the god damned penalties, stop talking about culture and demand attention to detail at every level and win fucking games. One of the very best pure coaches on a side of the ball that has ever donned the burnt orange and white has returned to Austin. Make no mistake, this was a very good day for Texas football. What I absolutely love about Muschamp as a coach and person begins before an install, video breakdown, play call or scheme. It's the intensity, the passionate communication, the non-stop motor, a fire that burns constantly, the way he challenges his defensive players to bring the best out of them, the demand for physicality, the demand to be detail oriented of his players which creates discipline. The spending time with family..." I'm 100% behind this. I liked PK, but his late game defense was the equivalent of Herman's turtling offense. Those late game collapses hurt us, even if we won the games. The scoreboard made easy wins look like close games. Boom was Sark's 1st choice. I think that's where the list ended. Muschamp had a kid at Georgia; that was an easy decision for him. When my company was acquired, I asked my new boss for a job description. He took his feet off my desk, grabbed a sticky note, and handed it to me; "MAKE MONEY!" "Now, which word do you not understand?" Boom doesn't send mixed signals. His style of communication is more direct. His personality and style of play resonates with players. I think he will get Texas over the top and on recruiting a lot of star players that we almost get, but finish 2nd. Coach Boom brings a passion and intensity that has been in short supply for a very long time. Somebody has to energize the team. We have a lot of great players that are good people, culture guys, but they are all of the "walk softly and carry a big stick" kind of guys. Somebody has to charge up the team emotionally. Muschamp will find it, bring it out, and cultivate it. And equally important, that passion and intensity will bleed over to the offense. After years of making money for others, I started my own company so I could watch my boy's grow up, did it for 10 years. A+ for Coach Boom. The man knows whats important in life. Early on, someone alluded to the notion that prospective new offensive coaches were in the playoffs. I thinking there's more to come. "The oxen are slow, but the earth is patient."
  18. I'm responding to myself, but I didn't want to pollute my first response. This is borderline CR, but still related to the topic. TLDR The US has tremendous natural gas resources, and Biden kicked the LNG industry (and O&G) in the 'nads. Trump reversed that mindset, 100%, throwing gasoline on the fire. Gulp. Trump was right. I can't say it. The US should produce gas, make LNG and export it, and Europe is much closer and easier than SE Asia. But it will impact domestic gas prices. The next time Texas freezes for a week, who gets the little bit of gas still being produced? The sparks fly when the reality of the present day market gets in the face of long term contracts, and $$$. The answer is not binary, and it it not finished when the papers are signed. In is a huge, living, constantly changing beast, at it needs to be treated as such. DJT may be a self anointed real estate mogul, but I think he and his 2 minute attention span would get his ass handed to him trading energy commodities. To be fair, I think that also applies to most of our former Presidents. I will never understand the pushback on putting energy professionals in the Department of Energy. What happens with the next US administration? Back to the other extreme? Europe is replacing Russian natural gas with imported LNG, from the US, and other places. Europe will be dependent on the kind hand offered by the US. Kind'a like NATO was. How's that's working out for them? While looking for Russian refinery data, I saw some verbiage that Russia now flares more gas than any other country. It used to be between Iran and the US. Russia I'm not sure if that includes Nordstream, but the number was close to the pipeline capacity, ~ 3-4 BCF/day, or ~ 1 or 2 LNG plants. When all is said and done, Russia has the gas production and reserves and the pipelines assets are already in place, and Russia SHOULD still be the cheapest source of gas for Europe. But Russia should never be the only source.
  19. I'm not that familiar with the European gas market (I don't have tome to go down that rabbit hole), so i'm not exactly sure what gas price is shown in the graph. But my first guess is that is an apples and boxcars comparison. Below is a similar plot of US gas prices, with no indication of the source of the data. Directionally, it appears to be valid information, but the entities that have the trading data also tend to have an agenda, so beware. If you over lay the two plots, they are similar, which one might conclude that US and European prices are the same. In one sense they are, but in reality, they are very different. The US has 100's (1,000's) of supply points and 1,000's of delivery points, with 1000's of transactions reflected in the gas spot market price at a specific point in time. In the US, the paper price is indicative of the real price. By comparison, mainland Europe (Not the UK and Norway) has a much smaller gas market, with minimal native gas supplies, and fewer, and larger delivery points. In the one sense, it is also a valid price, but I expect the volumes transacted at that price on a daily basis is but a small fraction of the US volumes From the graph, one might conclude the US and European prices are similar, so why do they need to import LNG? Well without LNG, that gas price goes off the chart. I asked Google, "What is the delivered cost of LNG to Europe?" (Again, directionally, the answer and information is within reason.) "AI Overview The delivered cost of LNG to Europe in late 2024/early 2025 typically ranges from $10–$15/MMBTU, but varies significantly with market conditions, adding liquefaction, shipping, and regasification costs to the base gas price (like U.S. Henry Hub). Factors like high Henry Hub prices, increased demand, and freight rates pushed delivered prices up in late 2024, while cooler weather and ample storage can lower them, with prices sometimes hovering around 33–50 €/MWh (equivalent to $10–$15/MMBTU) at the Dutch TTF hub. Cost Breakdown: Base Gas (e.g., U.S. Henry Hub): ~$3–4/MMBTU (in early 2025 estimates). Liquefaction: ~$2–$3.50/MMBTU (fees for turning gas into LNG). Shipping (Freight): Highly variable, $1–$3/MMBTU or more, depending heavily on distance and tanker demand. Regasification: ~$0.50–$1/MMBTU (cost to turn LNG back into gas in Europe). Key Price Drivers: Henry Hub Price: The cost of gas at the source (US). Shipping Demand: Higher demand (like surges in winter) increases freight costs, widening the gap between source and delivered prices. European Storage Levels: Low storage levels and cold weather drive up European spot prices (TTF). Recent Trends (Late 2024/Early 2025): Europe's high prices have attracted record U.S. LNG exports, even pushing prices above Asian markets. While U.S. Henry Hub prices rose, European spot prices (TTF) recently saw lower levels in late 2024 due to milder weather, though cold snaps can quickly reverse this, increasing costs. In essence, it's a market driven by supply, demand, and transport economics, with U.S. LNG often costing significantly more in Europe than pre-2022 pipeline gas." So, somebody is paying $10-15/MMbtu (3-4x the US gas cost) for the European gas price to be the "same" as the US. 20 years ago, the US built LNG import terminals (at the beginning of the shale boom, which unlocked Appalachia gas). Some actually imported LNG. Most of them started up as LNG export terminals, without ever importing LNG. It wasn't as simple as switching two wires and reversing the polarity. It takes $ Billions of dollars, tons of paperwork, and a regulatory nightmare, all of which is at the whim of the current administration. The long haul gas pipelines from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast, were bifurcated, with Appalachia gas supplying both the Northeast US demand and a new Gulf Coast LNG export market.
  20. My initial reaction was the subsea drone hit mostly the dock and less of the submarine. Maybe not. Per wiki, the Kilo Class submarine is 238-242 feet long, depending on the model. I merged a couple of screenshots of the submarines in the harbor, the targeted sub and a random sub at the dock. Bottom line, even though the videos show the explosion at the corner of the dock, it appears the attack may have inflicted more damage to the sub than what you can tell from the recent photos. The red line is ` 240 feet long
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