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Re: ERCOT data from yesterday, Aug 31. Power Generation @ 7.14 am; Wind & Solar 4,887 MW, 9.9% of total generation (4,887/(12,636+10,427), 21.2% of summer capacity) Gas @ 32,821 MW, 66.5% of total generation, (32,821/53,446, 61.4% of summer capacity) Power Generation @ 7.49 pm; Wind & Solar 7,381 MW, 10.5% of total generation (7,381/(12,636+10,427), 32.0 % of summer capacity) Gas @ 46,624 MW, 66.0% of total generation, (46,624/53,446, 87.2% of summer capacity) From 1:00-9:00 pm, gas fired generation was running at 80+ % of capacity, peaking at 46,981 MW, 87.9 % of capacity. That is the gas portfolio total; probably a lot of individual plants running ~ 90% of capacity. A few observations: Where did the damn wind go? Wind dropped to 948 MW @ 12:39 pm, 6.2% of summer capacity. I have to believe the wind just wasn't blowing v. unplanned shutdowns across the damn state. Very sobering for ERCOT, expecting a normal wind day, and getting less than 10% of available capacity during peak demand. Gas gets the bad press because of "unscheduled" outages. Imagine driving your car at 80% or redline for 8 hours a day, for 60 days in a row, in 100+ °F heat. Can't imagine why they would have an unscheduled shutdown. When comparing the economics of various power generation sources, the differences between "on demand" v. "when available" is difficult to quantify on $/MW basis. You cannot simply compare power output straight up without other considerations. Like it or not, renewables require a much larger installed capacity v. expected power generated ratio than fossil fuel plants.
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No… No…No…No!!! 2 things happened in the 60’s that made Texas livable; Air Conditioning and Liquor by the Drink. Don’t Mess with either of them. I’m still pissed that we had a National 55 MPH speed limit. It is our inalienable right to enjoy somebody else’s refrigerated air when we go to HEB, Lowes or Walmart. It’s bad enough we have to go there, let’s not make it worse by having to sweat when we get there. HEB is not a deli counter. HEB having doors on the meat counters would be a mass casualty event during the holidays. I agree that incoming business’ should pay some type of fee to support utility infrastructure. Age old argument that if everybody pays the incremental cost, who pays for the base cost?
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My experience living in Colorado is that smoking brisket is no bueno. I had a smoker a welder made for me in Oklahoma, and it couldn’t get enough air to keep the fire going. Evergreens are good for building houses, not so good for smoking meat. How I miss the way the days cooled down in August!!! I never got used to swimming up there; the evaporative cooling when you got out of the polls was about the coldest I ever got up there.
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As a populace, yes, we (the Royal "we") are, that dumb. 20 years ago, the domestic oil & gas industry was in its twilight (assisted living) and Deep Water Gulf of Mexico exploration and Canadian Tar Sands development was it. The US started building LNG import facilities to balance the energy needs of the US, and everybody made a concerted move towards renewables. Texas ramped up installation of new gas fire power generation, and with higher gas prices and a favorable regulatory climate, renewables ramped up. (Raw data from Wikipedia.) The Shale Revolution turned it all upside down. Ten years later, LNG imports stopped within a year of starting. Long haul gas transmission lines from the Gulf Coast to the northeast were bifurcated, sending Appalachia shale gas north towards the East Coast, and south, to the new LNG export facilities on the coast. The Eagle Ford Shale development accelerated the growth of new gas fired power generation and LNG Export facilities. The Shale impact on Permian development is off the charts, coupling world class reserves with world class export infrastructure, under the umbrella of a favorable regulatory climate. Texas is swimming in gas, industry is building new pipelines to Mexico, and the US has surpassed Qatar as the largest exporter of LNG in the world. The Roller Coaster of gas prices is indicative of making long term decisions based on the facts at a specific point in time, knowing there is little correlation to the facts that exist when the effects of those prior decisions actually happen. If you thank arm chair quarterbacking is fun with football, try doing it with commodity prices. Every few years, a once in a lifetime event occurs; Enron, Katrina & Rita, $150 oil, economic meltdown, unconventional shale boom, $30 oil collapse, economic boom, Permian shale boom, climate change, Covid, Ukraine, etc. Renewable energy looks a lot different in a $2.50 natural gas price environment, particularly when rolling blackouts routinely enter the conversation.
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Fuck!!! Estonia was on my wish list of Eastern European vacation stops because of Kaja's leadership. Another is a long, long line that married the wrong dude. “I only regret that I have but one life to give for my country.”
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Except for those damn 10,000 ft runways.
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Perhaps another way of saying "potential shortage" is "record demand." The majority of new power generation is from renewables, and I'm guessing the underlying gas generation has not grown in proportion to the population increase. The conundrum of incentivizing a private, for-profit industry, to build peak shaving facilities that don't run +50% of the time, that sell an absolute necessary commodity, at market conditions and pricing, to a hostile populace, is a no-win situation for every body involved. Re: unexpected availability, most natural gas facilities (compressor stations, treating & processing plants) use fin fan air coolers to cool down process streams (gas or water), basically large forced draft radiators. That is good enough most of the time, but becomes an issue when ambient temperatures are over 100° F. Cooling a process stream down from 180° F to ~120° F is easy when the ambient air is 70-80° F. When the air is 110° F, cooling down 180° F becomes ~140° F instead of 120° F. Hotter temperature degrades operating efficiencies and is harder on the equipment, and the people maintaining it. Envision a NASCAR race in west Texas is August. Operating natural gas facilities out west with annual temperature extremes ranging from +115° F to -15° F is challenging to say the least. Some times you do stuff that you know is unsafe and against well understood policies, but you gotta do what you gotta do. I cannot forget seeing my mechanics running hoses from pick-up exhausts to the crankcases of a large gas engines to try to warm the cold, syruppy oil. I shook me head, told them I was never there, quietly got in my vehicle, and left.
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The "local news" has an agenda, a combination of ignorance, hunting for clicks, and an intent to cater to their audience, ... Re: ERCOT Fuel Mix from yesterday, 08 23 2023. Coal & Nuclear (at the bottom) are the "base supply", always on with little variation. Solar & Wind (at the top) are the "intermittent supply", on/off based on variable atmospheric conditions, with solar having the most extreme variation. Natural Gas (in the middle) is the swing supply, on/off or increased/decreased based on the supply demand profile. Notice how the wind generation tapers off in the early morning hours and there is a slight increase in gas generation. As solar generation begins and wind generation increases, the increasing "renewable" supply is ~ equivalent to increasing demand, and there is a marginal change to gas generation. As demand increases through the hottest part of the day, the renewable supply is max'd out and the new supply is ~ 100% generated by natural gas. As the solar and wind power generation decreases in the late afternoon, gas power generation increases and peaks to satisfy the increasing demand profile. THE ONLY THINGS PREVENTING NATURAL GAS POWER GENERATION FROM HAVING A SMOOTH SUPPLY PROFILE IS THAT, (i) there is not enough gas, or (ii) NATURAL GAS POWER GENERATION IS "INTENTIONALLY THROTTLED (by ERCOT)" AS IT IS SIMPLY NOT NEEDED. (Yes, I am intentionally shouting because this same shit is posted every damn day I look over here, which thankfully, is about once every 3-4 weeks.) The "unexpected lack of generation" is simply an ignorance of not being able to understand a simple concept, that at a specific point in time, it is simply not needed due to the availability of other supply, primarily solar. The natural gas power generation is reduced, per ERCOT, because it is not needed on a real time basis. Please note how the power generation profile for natural gas very closely tracks the total supply/demand profile, which is indicative of the natural gas supply being the primary swing (variable) supply in the power generation portfolio. Ii is not that complicated, if you need more power, burn more gas. With that said, a cloud, or a tropical storm, drifting over a solar array can be offset by existing operating facilities ramping up production, on demand. A major generation facility dropping offline or a transmission line interruption is a much different issue.
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Harold's arrival in Driftwood
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I would offer that Gbenda's results reflect his coaching and the players around him, good and bad. A LB in the middle is impacted by other players more so than most others. Hiring the position coaches before the Defensive Coordinator is not conducive to having a consistent defensive philosophy, which we are all painfully aware of. Blitzing from centerfield or sitting on your heals and waiting and then "running around randomly" is more symptomatic of braindead coaching rather than player execution. Hager's style of "setting the edge" and consistently taking himself our of the play puts a lot of pressure on LB. Having your DL thrown into your lap while an unblocked teammate watches doesn't help. Gbenda's a 5th year player who will benefit from better coaching and athletes around him, and I look froward to him delivering the goods.
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Definition of a large human. 6'-4", 360+ lbs, w/ the Joseph Ossai, "Your ass is mine" stare in his eyes. Me like.
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Texas Recruiting Notes 2024: Bags Don't Beat Bankrolls
PTINS replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
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My jaded view of all non-science (business) majors. 1974 ME freshman... average of 1 girl in my Engineering classes, got lucky one year, had all 3 in the same class. "It's a public University, we have to let you in, We don't have to let you stay. Look to your left and right, one of you won't be here next year." "Are there class notes available? No, go to the business school!" "Is there a curve? No, go to the business school!" "Do we get a walk for OU weekend? No, go to the business school!" Took economics classes for my non-technical electives in the BEB, 2 to 3 ratio, girls to guys. F*ck all those 4 function calculator F*cking F*cked F*ckers!!! Graduated in ME, without a sweet thing on my arm. Guess I wasn't as smart as I thought I was.
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Giorgia Meloni is my Hero, my Benchmark for what a leader should be; Passionate, Dynamic, (Duh!!!), Articulate, (I don't know what she is saying without subtitles, but I'm 100% behind her), Believable (is there any question as to how she really feels?), Respectful (She says her piece, says "Thank You" and sits down), and the "Damn the Torpedoes" approach in choosing her words.
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At what point does monetary value outweigh sentimental value?
PTINS replied to Sandman's topic in Daily Texan
Not the same, but ... My grandfather used to give me a Silver Dollar every time we saw them; I was an Air Force Brat and we lived out of state for 8 years, so it wasn't a lot of money. When he passed in '79, my dad gave me my "Paw-paw's" 1889 Silver Dollar money clip. In 1980 when Bunker Hunt tried to corner the Silver Market, I sold all my silver, except the Money Clip, for ~$46x face value. I'd like to think that I used the money to buy my Porsche in '86, though some of it may have gone to shorter term "recreational entertainment." (BTW, 1980 Houston, TX was the most fun place in the history of the world.) As long as I have some line-of sight to the truth, I don't feel bad about selling the Silver. -
Texas Recruiting Notes 2024: Bags Don't Beat Bankrolls
PTINS replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
Let's try it with pics. -
Texas Recruiting Notes 2024: Bags Don't Beat Bankrolls
PTINS replied to texifornia's topic in 🤫$9.95🤫
Charleston, “… a drinking town with a history problem.” Just spent 5 days there. Highest temp was 88 F. Nice city. Clean, smallish, not commercialized. Packs of wedding parties, golf “widows”, etc. all around. Church & Union Restaurant, an old converted non-denominational church. Not the Sistine Chapel, but they painted the entire “The Art of War” on the ceiling. This is for the Ukraine posters. Sullivan Beach. Public beach. The “resort” is on the far point in the picture. Reminded me of Port Aransas, ~ 50 years ago. Not sugar white sand, but no high rise condos, no crowds, no sea weed, or no tar balls. No glass or plastic allowed, which I guess means silicone and Botox. This was Friday at 2pm. -
ChrisO_wiki @ChrisO_wiki 17/ "For example, in the program 'Evening with Vladimir Solovyov' there is every time essentially a gang rape of the authorities. The speakers are constantly kicking the authorities for various shortcomings in their activities." 18/ The report notes that many of the 'ultra-patriots' have criticised difficulties in military operations, 19/ It complains that "a large number of war correspondents who are sent from our official media ... [should not] spout all sorts of rubbish in their Telegram feeds." 20/ ... these figures think that at this stage it is necessary to drum into the heads of the population the existence of a huge number of problems and the traitors who create these problems." 21/ It warns that 'ultra-patriots' have created "an image of a so-called "fifth column" around Putin, which creates problems and which does not let the right information and true patriots reach Putin upstairs." The report forecasts an erosion of confidence in the government. 22/ ... "when confidence in the institutions of power in the institutions of power is lost, [they will] strike a final blow to the president and declare that "the fish rots from the head," preparing the way for Putin's overthrow. 23/ The next Russian presidential election in March 2024 is highlighted as the moment when the blow will come from "the information troops of NATO and Ukraine." Ukrainian propaganda is said to have become much more sophisticated and aimed specifically at Russians. 24/ "At this point, "the public, tired of the flow of negative news and failures, will be convinced that the "fifth column" and enemies of the state are in charge of our president. 25/ Then it will be possible to tell the public directly that Putin is an undesirable figure in the leadership of the country, that he is incapable of securing victories, or to effectively manage the army, has brought the country to a dead end, has quarrelled with the international community, and so on." It advises that the Kremlin should "talk to those of the major information players and stakeholders who are able to hear." 27/ "Kartapolov, Gurulev, Prigozhin, Tsarev, Simonyan, a number of political analysts - they all need to be persuaded to stop whipping up critical hysteria and talking about the shortcomings and so on. 29/ "We must explain to them firmly that now you are clearly working for our enemies, ... give them clear instructions that they should curtail this hysterical activity ... 31/ "We need to hold a big high-level meeting with them and demand to lower the temperature, to turn down the thermostat, so to speak."
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