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PTINS

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by PTINS

  1. I'm really glad we got this one. If anybody ever reeked of screw the star rating, he is it. His OV video was very telling; a very large human in street clothes, that looks "normal" in a uniform, until you realize how big he is, the slow, deliberate pan across his hotel room, taking it all in, every detail, the looks from his mom and GF, like "Yeah, ... this is the place", his photo op at DKR, takings lotsa pictures, Can't miss that smile of his, he's gonna have some fun wearing Burnt Orange!
  2. Fired usually means you no longer work there. He will "remain as a professor at the university's philosophy department."
  3. "Surly Horns - The more you dig in, the dumber you are going to look."
  4. I usually only use Elisha for um ... Longhorn commitments, but NATO's commitment to Ukraine feels appropriate.
  5. I have 'em on the equivalent of speed dial. The leadership in Europe is inspirational to say the least, and a refreshing benchmark of the depth that American politics have reached. Kaja Kallas Estonia Ursula von der Leyen EU-Germany Sanna Marin Finland Giorgia Meloni Italy Annalena Baerbock Germany And some bonus footage of Giorgia Meloni's rendition of a romance language. Even without the subtitles, Anybody with that passion is deserving of unmitigated support. You best not be leaving the toilet seat up in her house.
  6. Good comments, by all. Terrible Business Decisions ... Exhibit 1: Westlake? ...location, location, location. Are you stupid or what? Exhibit 1-a: Is there a clause in their Westlake Lease Agreement that requires them to honk all the Austin "Lake schools" stuff ad nauseam? Shut the f*ck up already. Exhibit 2: FM/AM signal quality is a deal. It is Talk Radio, which I'm guessing is primarily people in cars. The signal does not even make it to 281, which is pretty chicken shit. This is the worst/weakest radio signal I've heard since FM rescued the world from AM radio. Exhibit 3: Each 2-3 hour "show" starts w/ a 2-3 minute instrumental lead-in. Motown perfected music by grabbing you in the first 10 seconds. 2+ minutes of Dead Air equivalent (wasted advertising revenue) is pure stupidity. I hate commercials, but don't play the same tired songs every damn day. Exhibit 4: Gambling and bookies should be on Sunday mornings, if at all. Exhibit 0: ... there is tons of fucking content out there, just waiting for eyes and ears, but they left most of it out there on the table. This is what they have to sell, and they blew it. A captive audience between Houston, Dallas and San Antonio, and they called the Greg Davis "3rd and 5" play. I like Rod, his analytics and insight, and the fact that he worked his ass off to be on the field w/ Quentin Jammer, Nathan Vasher & Michael Huff. He knows what it takes to win at Texas. Another in a long list of the idiocy of Austin administrators.
  7. Erdogan look like someone shit in his Cheerios.
  8. DaHobbs; my post was not meant to flame. I was just trying to correlate your post with the data I could find, as I was not able to access the data that corresponded to your post. Regarding Capacity Factor, I have seen others state, not necessarily on Surly, that renewables need to replace fossil fuels 100%, PERIOD. I look at Capacity Factor as a benchmark, at the extremes. IF, and that's a BIG IF, If the entire grid (`80,000 MW) was powered by Solar, you would need ~ 53,000 MW of storage capacity (@ 90% efficiency) to power the grid on a full 24/7 cycle. My gut says industrial batteries may not be the best choice for power storage. I actually said, "... Gas & NGL facilities that generate their own power can run at 95% of demand 24/7 for 350+ days/year", which is not the same as "gas power plants do not run anywhere near at the capacity factor you suggest". I meant Gas Processing & NGL Fractionation Plants (they remove the Natural Gas Liquids from the gas stream and separate the NGL stream into 5 different commercial products), NOT gas power plants (fueled by natural gas with the intent to generate commercial power). These are Gas/NGL facilities operate on economic criteria and not political ones. Gas/NGL facilities are supply driven; if the supply of gas, and recovered NGL are available, these facilities can and do run at capacity 24/7/350+. Due do the redundant capacity installed, actual production is routinely in excess of the 100% "nameplate" capacity. We would joke at the end of the year that we already met out 350 day target, "Can we just shut down the plants and go home for the rest of the year?" To be clear, most Gas & NGL facilities built in the past 20-30 years rely on purchased power in lieu of generated power, with a keep "smoke stack emissions to a minimum" mindset and "save & bank" the emissions for routine maintenance and emergency situations. As such, they are part of the electric grid, on the demand side, not supply. If power availability is not an issue, these facilities operate at a 350+ days/yr, and at capacity, if the supply is available. To be clear, does this mean that during the 5 pm peak load hour, solar is producing at 86.5% of the daily peak capacity and wind is is producing at 57.2% of the daily peak capacity? I don't get the % values. Does this mean that Solar is producing "near peak power?" during the 1 hour peak load (5pm) 75.3% of the time in summer, or does it mean during the peak hour, Solar is producing at 75.3% of that days peak production? From the graphs, Gas combined-cycle new builds basically ended in 2017, and for the foreseeable future, the super-majority of new build power generation is all Solar. This has positives, and negatives. This plays to the strengths, "Solar in the summer is going to be closer to peak level of production at peak demand time." During the summer, when days are much longer and much hotter, the supply from Solar will dovetail with the peak demand. Unfortunately, this does nothing to provide the same reliability in the winter. Solar will have significant zero-power periods during extreme cold weather events, meaning the power generation we had in the past few years is all we have to rely on in the future. That is a separate can of worms. "Winterizing" steam generating power plants includes a reliable source of power being delivered to the plant, meaning gas fired power plants, and the gas processing plants that provide the "commercial" natural gas to the power plants, are prioritized, along with hospitals, fire departments, and other essential services. Prioritizing "for profit" private facilities is problematic, but if you don't, they freeze.
  9. I cannot download the 5 minute data for Jun 28 (chart date), so I looked at the 5 minute data for Jul 1. Peak Solar + Wind was 21,956 MW @ the 1:04 pm "5 minute increment", ~ 70% of the record of 31,468 on Jun 28. Why such a big difference? Was the Jun peak of 31,468 an attempt to set a record (bonus calculations) or was there sustained production near that total throughout part of the day? On Jul 1, the peak Solar production was 10,198 MW at the 1:04 pm increment. For the entire day, there were 18 5-minute increments at 95% or higher, or 1. 5 hours at 95+ % of available capacity. All these increments occurred between the 12:04 pm and 1:34 pm increments. The peak demand hour on Jul 1 was between 4:09 and 5:09 pm, averaging 65,936 MW. Solar accounted for an average of 8,107 MW, or ~ 11.7% of the total, while Wind accounted for 11,915 MW, or 17.1% of the total. Total Wind + Solar averaged 20,021 MW, or 28.8 % of the total. The peak Wind + Solar was between 12:24- 1:29 pm, averaging 21,697 MW, or 32.6% of the total of 66,522 MW. As you would expect, peak demand on Jul 1 was from 4:09-5:00 pm in the hottest part of the day. Peak Solar production was between 12:04-1:34 pm, and peak Wind+Solar production was from 12:24- 1:29 pm. At least on this particular day, the peak renewable production occurred mid-day, ~ 3 hours prior to the peak demand. For the 24 hour period, Solar averaged 3,840 MW, or 37.7% of the peak of 10,198 MW, and Wind averaged 11,780 MW, 73.5% of the peak of 16,028 MW. For this 1 day snapshot, Wind generates almost twice the power as Solar for each MW of installed capacity. Not to go CR, but I know from personal experience that Gas & NGL facilities that generate their own power can run at 95% of demand 24/7 for 350+ days/year. They could run at 95% of rated capacity 24/7/350+ if they have the available feedstock (gas or NGL supply), which is usually provided by a mix of 3rd parties, to warrant running at system capacity. A power generation plant is nowhere nears as complex as a Gas/NGL facility; and water hardly ever catches fire.
  10. They have an incredible history, and a beach, and have instilled a want in every civilized person to extend a hand in friendship, and ..., I'm just spitballing here, a desire to extend a hand full of tourist $$$.
  11. This SMO, war, litany of atrocities has challenged by core beliefs in a big way. What we see here damn near every day makes me want to throw in the towel, say "Fuck it!", and just ... "...just wipe it clean off the map. Knock everything down, every city, every castle, all the bridges, all the roads. Everything. Don't leave two stones standing together. Just wipe the slate clean. Turn Germany Russia into a prairie, then ship over a few buffalo and let them start from scratch. Now, what do you think of that, Colonel Surly?" - Major Wolenski My desktop reaffirms my resolve, every day I turn on my computer. It also allows me watch karma personified, without guilt.
  12. A theology class anticipated they would be asked to discuss St. Peter on their final. When the Professor wrote "Criticize Jesus"on the board, the class was stunned. Nobody moved for 5 minutes. Then one student opened his bluebook, and started madly writing until he filled the book, for which he receiver an "A". What did he write? "Who am I to criticize Jesus? But let me tell you about St. Peter..." I only have an opinion of the implosion dynamics of Titan, but a more informed understanding of the explosion/rupture of similar pressure vessel. Large commercial propane tanks range in size from tanker trucks (10,000 gallons), to rail cars (30,000 gallons) to fixed storage tanks (60-90,000 gallons, 10-12 feet in diameter, 60-90 feet long ). All have similar construction, hemispherical heads welded to a rolled steel plate shell, with a maximum pressure of ~250 PSI. Tanks are filled with liquid propane to a maximum of 90% of the volume, with the remaining 10% being filled with vapor. A pressure relief valve vents high pressure vapor insuring the tanks are never over pressured. In those very rare cases when a tank ruptures, fire is almost always the cause of the rupture. Flames impinging on the tank boils the liquid propane at a rate that exceeds the capacity of the pressure relief valve, increasing the internal pressure in the tank until it explodes. The resulting BLEVE, "boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion", results in a catastrophic destruction of the storage tank. BLEVE Storage tanks installed at Gas Processing plants usually have saddles welded to the tanks, which are bolted to reinforced concrete foundations. They are meant to be permanent installations that do not move. For tanks with welded saddles, the ruptured tank is usually torn into 3 distinct pieces; The saddle (1) , the orange peel (2), and the bullet (3). (Note this picture shows a tank laying on a concrete saddle as opposed to having a welded saddle.) The saddle portion of the tank is left attached to the foundation, the orange peel is torn off and looks like an orange that has been peeled in one piece. The bullet, appropriately nicknamed, becomes an opened ended projectile ejected at high pressure, with the additional energy provided by a 10 foot diameter, open ended, liquid fueled rocket engine. the bullet can be projected 1-2 miles from the explosion. In the films I saw in the early 80's, they usually found the guys camera, not always the guy. Bleve explosion In my opinion, the Titan implosion is similar, but different. Similar, as in a rapid, catastrophic failure. Titan's construction of a carbon fiber shell mechanically joined to the titanium heads was a big red "x" for me, for a lot of reasons. I don't think you can stress relieve carbon fiber the way you can steel. 6,000 PSI? No f$%&ing way!!! Anything attached to the hull in any way would localize stress at a specific point rather than distributing the stress uniformly across the entire surface. The picture of something mechanically joined (screwed) to the internal wall was scary, reminded me of Clark Griswold picking at the walls of the Hoover Dam. A localized stress could lead to a failure that would quickly implode the capsule. When the capsule integrity was compromised and exposed to the 6,000 PSI water pressure, the rapid increase in internal pressure confined to a tiny volume would be a violent transfer of energy, destroying the mechanical coupling of the shell to the metal heads, and obliterating everything that wasn't solid. Uugh!
  13. Thank you twice. Re: Zeihan; when this started last February, I read everything I could find, mostly here, and down the endless rabbit holes. I liked Zeihan's back drops, quirky facial expressions, at first, but never saw maps and videos to support what he said, and I quit looking at his stuff. You guys and gals are much more content based and I need data points. Re: Neptune Missile theory is interesting. There was a link upthread to a story discussing a truck bomb being used on the Kerch Bridge, that had detail info, names, pictures from check point camera's, manifests, timelines, maps, etc. I thought I bookmarked or save it, but ... I read it on the internet, so caution. But, I took it as a factual based argument that made a lot of sense, not something that was planned on a whim, but something long anticipated and just waiting for the right time to execute. The more we see of Ukraine's continued imagination and ingenuity, the more I believe it.
  14. You only have to be able to see ~ 5 ft to play golf well. If you see the club contact the ball, it has a chance to go straight, and you get to see the sparks.
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