PTINS

This is based on 2021 Data, during the period of the peak Covid impact. That distortion is not necessarily representative of the "normal" US GDP. The whole sale shut down of the oil & gas industry, with negative oil prices, had a severe negative impact on Texas. The tech companies plugged into the "work from home" dynamic was a short term economic boom that bridged a couple of years. Overall, the data is somewhat representative of the GDP distribution across the country, but Covid had a significant impact on the discreet metro area GDP's.

Thanks for the info! Re: 360,000 shells/month. By my way of thinking, that translates to 360,000 targets, ~ 100,000 hits, casualties or mobile targets, plains, trains, & automobiles, tanks, artillery pieces, APC's, Ammo dumps, HQ, etc. What is a reasonable expectation of shells fired to targets hit? When I saw this I immediately thought of M777 howitzers and smart 155 mm shells delivered within 10 feet of the target. Theses must be but a small part of the total. I guess across a 500 mile front, that translates to 24 shells/per mile/per day. Staggering numbers when you think about it. I'll hang up and listen.

We lived near Boulder many years ago and came back to Austin once or twice a year. When you are coming south, after you go through Raton Pass, the mountains open up and you can see the plains of NE New Mexico & the Texas Panhandle below. It always reminded me of a scene from The Lion King, with the fertile flats, bathed in sunshine, running towards the horizon. “The only thing I like about New Jersey is the view it has of Manhattan.” I have been all over Texas, and the only place it looks like that is from that part of New Mexico.

Yes! Thunder Creek Ranch (my avatar) is near Utopia, 1 hour away from the Walmarts in Hondo, Uvalde or Kerrville. A few years after we bought the place, ~15 years ago, I was redoing the interior of the small ranch house and had an electrician doing work late one Saturday. I got to thinking the little grocery/hardware/deer processor store was closing within the hour and we better get there quick or were gonna be SOL. When we got there, the door was locked and it was dark inside, so we went around the back where they took the deer in. The guy let me in the regular store and told me to just grab whatever I might need, bring the rest back when I was back in town, and we would settle up on what I used. So I did. Neighbors have help me out with all kinds of stuff. Last election, we went into town, and damn near every plot of land had a Trump banner, flag or sign of some type. No surprise to me. The only issue I've ever had is the aggy who damned up the creek upstream of me. I never asked, but I wouldn't characterize them as racist. They all use, and appreciate immigrant labor. And they all have guns. These are some hard working people, that give an honest days work every day, and don't expect anybody to give them anything, yet they come out of the cracks when somebody needs help, or some assistance. I tell every body that comes out there to be careful, that everything out there will bight you, sting you, scratch you, or poke you, that everything out there is tougher than you are because it survives in a very harsh environment, and that the life-flight helicopter comes from San Antonio. They damn sure don't need anybody telling them how to live their lives.

I remember moving to Houston in the 1980, working with some of the best & the brightest from all over the country, who were surprised Houston had so many trees. It is was ~ 10% humidity from being a tropical rain forest, but the image of Texas was tumbleweeds and cattle ranches. When they came to Austin, they were surprised by the hills and wondered why we didn't have ski slopes. duh!!! All you need to grow wheat is a relatively flat landscape void of trees, cold weather and warm weather. Which is damn near everywhere above and below the tropics. Everybody can grow it, but not everyone needs to export it. Export #'s mask the true supply & demand. Corn >> wheat, in margins, I would guess. A bag of deer corn was $2.88/50# in 2002. It's about $12/50# now, thanks to ethanol regulations. Cost of a loaf of bread never entered my mind. Clearly Russia/Ukraine wheat to the MIddle East is much cheaper than US or Australia. The winter wheat from the Red River to Canada, ...

Queue Garry Kasparov, "What's the worst thing about being so intelligent? I understand things so clearly, and others don't." I look at my own life experiences, and try to project that against how the "average" American views things. Right or wrong, I would characterize the collective mindset as "it doesn't really concern me, so ..." I was an Air Force Brat and spent my early life on remote AFB's. Back then, most of what I knew I read someplace, not much broadcast news, and my real world life experiences were limited. Growing up in Austin in the late 60's was enlightening to say the least, the contrast behind a very structured life on an AFB v. the unbridled energy & passion challenging the establishment, especially with LBJ in the White House and Frank Erwin commanding UT (anti-war protests, tree huggers, and thank god, hippy chicks). I remember watching the news every day, seeing the Viet Nam casualty reports, and thinking "we're kicking their ass." Years later, when my older brother got his draft number, and his friends got drafted or went to Canada, after attending a vet/friends funeral, shit started getting real. I graduated HS in the 70's in Austin, and went to school with some kids that had never been outside of Texas, and a lot whose fathers went to Viet Nam. I stood along side Presidential Blvd at Bergstrom to watch LBJ's procession, seemed like every general in the US Military came to town. Nixon resigned on my 18th Birthday. That was a sliver in time where very few people had any desire to join the military and "Serve their Country." By the time I left UT, right after 3 Mile Island and the Iranian Revolution, I was more educated, questioned my past and confused about the future, or confused about my past and questioning my future, with a somewhat jaded view to not take anything at face value (American Interests?). Traveling, and learning, as an adult, crystalized many things for me. Are you from Texas? Kinda, 8th Generation, Land Grant family from the Crown of Spain. The Jefferson Memorial; "I have sworn upon the altar of God eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man." Having Au Pairs, travels to Europe, staying with our German Au Pair in a village 30 miles from Belgium; The rural Germans are the hardest working, most resourceful people I've ever been around, (if a cow takes a dump, there is a farmer standing behind it with a shovel), and unfortunately, devoid of any quality leadership for the past 100 years. Paris. If WWII Paris looked like Bakhmut or Mariupol, that would have been the greatest tragedy in the history of Mankind. Seeing their Statue of Liberty kinda put all that "... never fired, dropped once..." shit to bed. Bingo on the pay it forward! Translating all that to Ukraine, makes me want to take my 60+ year old ass and my 30.06 and go fuck up some Russians. Ok, lighten up Francis. Better to fire up the BUFF's! Thank you all, again and again. Your collective knowledge, insight, and experiences, and humor, make my day. Slava Ukraini

I read it on the internet, so it must be true... Fascinating thread. What a black hole!!! It follows an alleged truck cargo from Odesa, Ukraine to Romania to Bulgaria to Georgia to Armenia to Georgia to Russia to Kerch Bridge ... Boom. May be 100% fiction, but like a Clancy novel, it just pulls you in ...

Maybe the Colt Monitor Machine Rifle.

Brisket, you rock!!!

Germany replacing Russian gas v. The Western World replacing Chin’s industrial base is not even close to the same thing. The disappearance of Russian gas was dampened by the disappearance of China industrial production due to Covid shutdowns. Had the world economy been at pre-Covid production levels, the loss of Russian Oil & Gas production would have been much more $eriou$. The crushed energy demand, and a mild European winter, made the cutoff tolerable. The US, Russia & Saudi Arabia are the 3 largest producers of oil & gas, with #4 ~ maybe 30-40% of the smallest of the 3 big uns. The oil will find its way into the world market, it always does. The lost Russian gas has been replaced by redirecting LNG from asian markets to Europe. With economic recovery, they are going to want it back. No economic recovery? No problem. Economic recovery comes with higher energy prices. That is just the energy slice. Replacing China’s Manufacturing industry? The US exports polyethylene pellets to China and imports plastic; McDonald’s toys, car parts, phones, solar panels, everything. It took China ~ 50 years? to get to this point. That is much different than simply redirecting some waterborne LNG tankers. China needs dollars, and we want/need cheap/inexpensive plastic shit. China has seen a unified western world v. Russia. I don’t think they want any FAFO.

"More importantly, How are the children?" - President Joe Biden "You are America's best, make us proud!"

Very Powerful Images. Proud of old Joe ... gulp ... President Joe Biden. Looking, and acting very Presidential, projecting how the leader of the Free World is supposed to look. The smile on Olena's face says it all, ... Proud moment for Ukraine. I always feel you have right on your side when the skies open up and you are bathed is sunshine.

Great show. Puts a bookend to seeing him at the Armadillo in '70's, along with a few other times. High energy, Born to Run Bruce, when I was 18 pegged the meter for me, and last night was special, for many reasons. He still brings a lot of energy, and still has that unbridled passion for performing. Watching the icons of my youth aging, and dying, is ... just life. His story about joining a band at age 15 in '65, and being the only one alive resonates with me. We had 5th row floor seats; thanks #1 son. Nice to get the full panoramic view of the 17 piece band & vocals. Everybody around us stood and danced for most of the show, including the Jersey girls next to me. The young 'un was a Surly 9.9. Free parking in 18th street garage.

I got vaccinated + boosters. Got Covid right after the holidays, 2-3 weeks after getting the flu. Same symptoms, post nasal drip and coughing, 101.9 ℉ fever (I was surprised when I checked this, didn't feel feverish). Did Teledoc because of the fever. Cedar fever at the same time was the biggest issue.

Mahomes has the luxury of playing for KC, an organization that personifies that word. They have been that way since the day one, a really long time ago. The Hunt's have never made this about them, always standing behind the scenes. So rare in professional sports. Andy Reid has always wanted a QB like Mahomes to run his offense, and he will continue to thrive in that offense. The organization, coaches, and star QB all fit the same mold. It's hard not to like that. Great place for Bijan to hang his hat.

Mahomes has led KC to 5 straight AFC Championship games, going to the 3 Super Bowls and winning 2 of the 3. He has clearly been less than 100% for the past 3 games, but still made amazing plays down the road to lead his team to big wins. His is fortunate to play for Andy Reid, who finally has the QB he always wanted. Patrick is still in his 20's. He still has some time to mature and grow up before he finds his place among the NFL greats, but the group is getting smaller.

These annualized statistics might be 100% accurate, but the results yield a meaningless metric. I recognize the discrete data is not readily available. The EIA numbers above just note the actual power produced over the year v. the rated capacity over the year. For CC-NG, this means the plants ran the equivalent of 100% capacity for 55% of the year to meet electrical demand for the entire year. That does not mean the plants were shut down and idle for 45% of the time. The reality is most gas fired power plants are "turning to right" and generating power 24/7 for 350+ days a year. The daily demand profile implies they need to run at capacity (~75 GW demand) for 6-10 hrs/day during peak daylight hours, and something less than capacity during off-peak hours (~ 50-60 GW demand). Similarly, they need to run at higher production rates in the summer v. the winter. The plants are still running 24/7, and flexing from 40-100% capacity during the each day throughout the year, as dictated by demand. The variability makes fossil fired generation the prefered swing power generation source. When I say 24/7, I mean on online and producing power 24 hours a day/ seven days a week, regardless if the plant is at 40% power or 100% power. The variable is the demand for power, not the availability of power generation. Fossil plants are able to flex from 40% capacity to 100% capacity within hours according to demand. Nukes have that availability, but it is not practical to cycle them throughout the day. Renewables produce according to the weather, they do not have that on/off availability, regardless of demand for power. IN 2021, everything went wrong. The entire state having record cold at the same time for a really long time. Freezing and failing power generation and distribution systems reduced power availability, with the necessity for discriminate load shedding, which included shutting off power to gas processing plants, which further reduced gas production, which reduced gas fired power generation, etc., cascading to a big pile of ... Winterizing gas processing plants? They are already built that way, with heat tracing and insulation on susceptible equipment, pipes and valves. Gas processing plants, with 100's of millions of Ft3 of gas per day going through them, are dependent on purchased power, including the electric power for heat tracing. When the power was cut by ERCOT, gas processing plants, like most of Austin, were shut down, and froze. It's ironic that the plants are not designed to be shut down in a cold state for prolonged periods of time. Nobody talks about prioritizing natural gas assets to a hospital level hierarchy, but they are a critical piece of the gas supply chain.

This. LHN makes it easy to follow whatever sports are in season. I would hope the expanded SEC would move in that direction. They will get tired of seeing Texas towards the top of all sports all the time and I would expect the rest of the SEC to broaden their support for more sports to be more competitive, which will challenge some of their athletic budgets (football).

Or next to me. A few observations; (1,x,2 not shown) I spoke briefly with the 3 ladies on the front row, none of them spoke back. One of those smiled, his wife I think (red?). The one in front, zero sunshine, looked at me like Ossai looked at the Okla State QB. The facial expressions. CW. Bond villain (eyebrows), pride, and the 3 guys on the second row. They appear to be locked-in and trying to process everything they're hearing. Bet they never looked like that in class. My thoughts, exactly. But, my reality, is that none of my closest family, friends, or colleagues have the opinion and understanding of Ukraine-Russia I do for the simple fact I read about it every day, and they don't. Is it a self-fulfilling prophecy because I immerse myself in all things Ukraine? No, I read Surly, I am enlightened, I'm a smart dude, I get it, I'm kinda like Kasparov. Poor Brisket forgot his umbrella... ha ha ... rookie mistake... I forgot my wallet & cash. Ok, maybe not like Kasparov. Reminded me of the UT lecture series after Watergate, hearing every swinging dick blaming the system, but one; Senator Sam Ervin, D., NC. RIP. "The system worked. They broke the law, and got caught." Seeing Alex Haley speak in the late 70's was awe inspiring. Over the next few years, we traced our family to the 1500's. I sat next to the young sophs who brought their chess boards for an autograph. They came to see the Chess Grandmaster, knew very little about Russia-Ukraine. I gave them a short Surly brief before. After, the enlightenment they showed was refreshing. I told them, they would always remember tonight, not because of their autographed boards, but for what they heard. Last night, front row center, for Garry Kasparov; No question about being in the presence of greatness, by far the most intelligent person I've ever seen, heard, or shook hands with.

Damn!!! Kasparov is a smart mo fo!!! Even a bigger brain than Brad. (After I reflected on this, is it because he believes the same things I do? No.) In addition to being the #1 chess player in the world for over 20 years, the man has an encyclopedic knowledge of dates and history. He has been warning about Putin for 20 years. And, he must read Surly, 'cause he echoed a lot of what we read here every day. Sorry Brisket. Great summary. I didn't start taking notes until ... I have added a few comments to Briskets. (I asked, nothing was recorded, and no transcripts coming). Very powerful words, thought provoking, and entertaining. Sharp dressed man. Small entourage. (1,3,2)