PTINS

anybody got the pic of Perry thowing the Hook 'Em sign?

Hydrogen sulfide is a chemical compound with the formula H2S. It is a colorless gas, and is poisonous, corrosive, and flammable, with trace amounts in ambient atmosphere having a characteristic foul odor of rotten eggs. That green slime may be some other toxic soup, but it is not Hydrogen Sulfide.

Unless you join the Ukraine version of Mossad, you won't see it. You may read about it occasionally where a high profile war criminal had an "accident." It will happen. It allways does.

I think with the amount of informatiion available on the specifics of Russian forces, (name, rank, personal & weapon serial numbers, hometowns, military history, etc.), the likihood that a Russian war criminal slinks back into his pre war life without consequences is a low probability. It won't be in the Hague, but justice will be served.

Not my area of expertise, but ... With the new artillery Ukraine has received, UA can easily hit a target 25 miles away, which puts Belgorod, a major Russian rail & supply junction, within reach of the Ukraine border. I'd stay out of Russia, and just lob in 155mm rrtillery as needed, and redeploy other available assets to the south and east.

The "rapidity of the withdrawal" was a major cluster fuck without proper consideration of the longer term consequences. Very similar to the coincident decisions to dramatically reduce the US production and use of fossil fuels, and the "need" to inject trillions of $ into a rapidly recovering economy. The Afghan disaster is precisely the reason we choose not to arm Ukraine with better weapons until after the invasion. The US intelligence community was spot on, but that does not necessarily apply to the US Government.

Russia average DAILY losses over the past 10 days: UAV 11 These appear to be more reconnaissance than offensive weapons, comments? Tanks 20 Artillery 8 Armored Vehicles 37 Other Vehicles 31 Russia only lost 13 aircraft & 1 helicopter in the past ten days; probably due to fewer flights and avoidance of better UA air defense. Is Russia "saving" their air support for some offensive move? Tanks and armored losses total 57 per day, indicative of more and better drones and artillery operating in open terrain. As UA receives still better drones, longer range and bigger artillery, and more air assets, Russia's losses will increase. It appears Russia will just pound civilain targets until they can't. Viet Minh soldier: Do we take prisoners? Lt. Nguyen Huu An: No. Kill all they send, and they will stop coming.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/ue739c/the_burning_of_the_moskva/

Rural Germany, which is a continuous blanket of small towns and villages every 1-2 miles, burns fuel oil & wood for heat. No natural gas network, no propane, solar occasionally. I expect imported "wood" from the US is cheaper than the indigineous wood. Probably just checking whatever box on the form is closest to reality without intent to mislead.

On my 944S, you needed a lift to drop the wheels so you could change the oil filter. To change the lower radiator hose, you needed a special 30" long screw driver, or a triple jointed wrist. Marvel of engineering what they got out of a 4 cyl engine, but totally impractical to maintain.

Will Americans accept a +/- 25% increase in natural gas costs/electricty to keep Europe from depending on Russia? If not, EU's next choice is Qatar. They turned to Russia because the US did not present a viable option and the Middle East was a shit storm. In addition to the 25% gas price increase, will Americans accept the increased oil & gas development, pipelines & LNG facilitities? LNG can always expand in Texas & Louisiana, but it makes more sense for Appalachia gas to flow to East Coast LNG facilities. Russia's gas production capacity is a sunk cost with deliverability capabilities to Europe already in place. Post Putin, Russia gas will flow to Europe as a secondary supply source because the delivered cost is so much cheaper than LNG.

In the 90's, we lived in Colorado and routinely made mexican & cajun food for our Au pair's from Germany, Finland, Norway & South Africa. Good times. If I wasn't from Texas we never would have left. Couldn't smoke brisket in my grill because the fire kept going out; not enough air.

Russia wants Ukraine to disappear. End of Story. Pure egotistical driven politics regardless of economics. Geography and economics dictate that Russia's world class gas reserves go to Europe. Politics said don't do it. Money wins. Ukraine is the gateway for a lot of Russia gas heading toward Europe. Control of Ukraine = Control of Russia gas to Europe. Nordstream was supposed to minimize Ukraine's "influence" of Russia gas flow. Russia fucked that up, whether they get Ukraine or not. They are the poster child for demand destruction. Too bad Russian game theory didn't consider, "... what happens if we invade and don't get Ukraine?" With Sweden, Finland & Ukraine off the table, Russia's "sphere of influence" is going to be down to Belarus. Whopee!!! Russia's gas market? The Russia-China proposed gas pipeline, Piece of Shit Power of Siberia (POS), is a $20 Billion, 2500 mile venture, including 600 miles across Mongolia. Russia's gas influence in Eurasia is nonexistent post 2030. Their market is basically China, which has zero dependence on Russian gas. Russia's options are drop your price or keep it in the ground. Ironically, the end game could be Russia's land-locked captive gas will be a cheaper "secondary" supply source for Europe than the new waterborne LNG, and eventually the Russia gas will resume full flow to Europe, but without the Putin-premium. Cheap pipeline gas backs out expensive LNG, and ... Money wins, again. Europe thrives with cheap fossil fuels and a strong renewables. 4-D chess.

From the Euromaidan Press website, here is the same data on a daily basis ...

Looks like Tarzan ... Plays like Jane. I have to admit, that's a Bad Ass looking warship (first pic).

Re: Governmental Policies My bad for too general of a comment trying to meld CR correctness, catching up on Surly, and posting at 2 am. I meant all government, from the Feds to the States, to the counties, locals, neighborhod HOA's, the NIMBY's, ad nauseam. Ironically, President Obama's "all of the above" was the most practical energy policy in place since my time on the 40 acres. Be flexible, keep your options open. I agree that large worldclass O&G facilities and large population centers should not be colocated and no pipelines through Barton Springs or across my ranch. Other than that ... If your really against O&G development, sell your car and walk, sell your house and go live in the woods. Throw away all your plastics. Otherwise, STFU!!! oops. Sorry. Unfortunately, the O&G industry is a lot like Russia. They only play defense and really suck at offense. An "Image Consultant" at a O&G conference said there are a small handful of organizations supporting O&G devopment, and about 800 orgainizations whose only goal is to make sure you never drill another well anywhere. Play offense and get proactive. Unfortunately, that ship sailed a long time ago. Monies that should have been spent educating people went into politicians back pockets. Democracy works best with an educated populace. I'm continually amazed at what I hear or read coming out of "educated" peoples mouths, the same mindless dribble as an Iraqi or Russian press secretary. That's what happens when your post college education comes from 280 character tweets, you tend to make decisions using the mental horsepower of a gnat. The extreme polarity of US politics as it relates to energy makes me happy I'm on the back side of this and only deal with it by choice, mostly here. Now we are reminded, again, that poor decisions and the importance of affordable energy prevails over all the basic tenants of a civilized society. It pisses me off. "I have sworn upon the altar of God eternal hostility against every form of tyranny over the mind of man." Thomas Jefferson has always been my Hero! Add Volodymyr Zelenskyy to my list.

First, I'm trying to keep this CR free. Thanks to all of you for the information sharing on so so many related subjects. I walk away for half a day, and damn, ... shit moves fast around here! So, There are 3 contries that are the pillars of O&G production that control, through production or influence, the balance of worldwide supply & demand; The US, Saudi Arabia & Russia. The US has always had the reserve base to meet European demand, but maximizing production, at moderate oil prices, has not been the goal of the US since the early 80's. Germany and the EU looked to Russia, because neither the US, nor anyone else, was available. We ignored her, she left for a wife beater, and here we are. When the 2020 denominator is tiny, any increase in 2021 will lead to record earnings. Did the companies that went bankrupt or were consumed in "mergers" also post record earnings? If Chevron makes $8 Billion/year, is that too much? That's about what they payout in dividends. To keep production flat and just offset declines, and save some for a rainy day, they need to make a lot more than that. Thank you. Vertically integrated means they make money on production, refining & petrochemicals, and marketing & trading. Usually, they make money in 2 out of 3, no matter how hard they try. The independent production companies (no downstream integration), the smaller guys that drill most of the wells, live and die with roller coaster prices. By defintion, they have to sell someone to the integrated companies and independent refiners and pet-chems. The midstream industry, infrastructure gathering, compression, processing & pipelines, is all built on term, take or pay contracts, meaning they pay for the service whether they use it or not. Even when it's uneconomic to drill and produce, they are still contractually obligated to pay the midstream fees. They start up and a lot of them go bankrupt. When the price is right and capital is plentiful at low borrowing rates, drill, baby drill. With the anomalies in supply & demand & price fundamentals, tight capital, and rising interest rates, the gas you get is going to be impacted by a constant foot riding the brakes. A Q-Max a day is ~ equivalent to Nordstream 2. Longhaul pipelines, with 100's of supply sources, are basically 24/7/365. LNG Shipping, a single source supplier, is impacted by supply disruptions, fog, blocked canals, labor strikes, etc ..., something less than 24/7/365. Current US LNG capacity is ~ 12 BCF/day, LNG capacity under construction ~ 6 BCFD Nordsteam Pipelines 1 &2 gas to Europe total ~ 11 BCFD. Pipelines and midstream assets are fee based asset companies. Production companies are commodity based. Volume/fee guarantees =/= commodity price guarantees? Is Putin's invasion Force Majuere? an "act of god"? O&G price forecasting is a combination of darts and hitting a pinata with a blindfold. The O&G risk profile is marginally different than FAANGs. "record profits this quarter": ... forward looking forecast based on past events will have no bearing on future results? Not wise to commit to a substantial increase in borrowing and capital spending at $10 million/well based on a quarterly result. My starting point is "the trend is your friend", but some how forceast an Enron, or Katrina, or Covid or Putin. No hydraulic fracturing, no pipelines, no facilities >> No production + no transportation + no market = canceling gas growth. The Marcellus-Utica gas production increased ~ 15 BCFD from 2010-2015, and the Permian gas production increased ~ 11 BCFD from 2015-2020, either of which could have met Europe's demand but gas. There was a market demand that could not be satisfied by US production simply because the corresponding growth in infrastructure was prevented by governmental policies. IMO, the productive gas capacity of the US has been "artificially limited" or "knee-capped" by governmental policies.

Fuck!!! Link: https://liveuamap.com

Correction of prior post, with a better link: I like this map the best: https://liveuamap.com You can zoom in to the details of cities, roads, etc. The area between Sumy (NW) and Kharkiv (SE) shown on most of the maps as "controlled by Russia" is bound by the highway on the southwest and the Ukraine-Russia border on the northeast. UA appears to control the highway, which is paramount.

I like this map the best. https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/31-march-destroyed-russian-equipment-after-heavy-battles You can zoom in to the details of cities, roads, etc. The are between Sumy (NW) and Kharkiv (SE) on most of the maps is bound by the highway on the southwest and the Ukraine-Russia border on the northeast. UA control of the highway is the key.

THIS POST WAS THE SINGLE MOST INFORMATIVE POST I HAVE READ ON THE WAR AGAINST UKRAINE; Re: Russian 40 Mile Convoy I am not shouting at you, just wanted to emphasize. It is a long thread w./ embeded threads & pictures. Read it if you want to be "informed", don't if you don't. I have taken the liberty of cutting & pasting the text. If you want pictures, go to the thread at Page 393, Post # 19640. Thank you cactusflinthead!!! IMO, This points to the reason Kyiv will not be surrounded or taken by Russia. Convoy Thread 1/ Russian invasion of Ukraine involves a 40 mile (64km) long convoy of Russian military vehicles, that has been stalled for 2 weeks outside Kyiv the capital city of Ukraine. Some of the convoy is dispersing. I said convoy was a military mystery. Let's dig into it. Convoy Thread 2/ From a military point of view, a convoy of military vehicles is a HIGH PRIORITY target, an 'easy' target. And prone to ambush. Ambushes are standard warfare against convoys. For example convoys of Soviet invasion to Afghanistan were regularly ambushed by Taliban. Convoy Thread 3/ The way to ambush a convoy is to stop it at a congested road like mountain or forest road. Destroy first vehicle & last vehicle. Prevent escape. Then destroy whole convoy. Finland vs Soviets in Winter War, Battle of Raate Road is classic case of how this is done. Convoy Thread 4/ It has seemed odd that this 40 mile (64km) long convoy has been a SITTING DUCK for over two WEEKS. Was stalled, but not destroyed. It seemed... bizarre, considering how badly Russia is doing in the war, and how well Ukraine is doing. Let's dig into it a bit more. Convoy Thread 5/ News from Friday now, 2 weeks into the war is that SOME of the units in the convoy are 'dispersing' but only into NEARBY WOODS or villages, for shelter. The convoy has not MOVED - it has not ADVANCED. It is just seeking more shelter. It is not 'attacking' anyone. Convoy Thread 6/ Let's do some analysis. Russian invasion of Ukraine is about 150,000 troops. A Russian division is about 10,000 troops (a bit more for rifle division, a bit less for tank or airborne division). So there are about 15 divisions of Russian soldiers in Ukraine today. Convoy Thread 7/ A Russian division has about 1,200 military vehicles. About 300 tanks, about 400 armored fighting vehicles, a bit over 200 mobile artillery & mortar, plus 100 misc other armored vehicles. And then 200 trucks to carry their fuel, ammunition, food etc, supplies. Convoy Thread 8/ A 40 mile (64km) convoy of military vehicles in tight marching order, is about 3,000 vehicles. But the reporting was, that this convoy was grouped with gaps, so say half that, maybe there are roughly about 1,500 military vehicles. Could be one division + extras. Convoy Thread 9/ But the reporting was that this was a convoy of TRUCKS with SOME armor to protect them. This is not a division on the move. No This is a SUPPLY CONVOY, of military TRUCKS, not tanks. They carry fuel, ammunition, food for the soldiers on the front, & their tanks. Convoy Thread 10/ Now the numbers make for fascinating detail. A standard Russian division of 1,200 total vehicles, has 200 supply trucks. Those carry the fuel, ammunition & food for ONE DAY of combat operations (the second, day, as the tanks carry one day of ammunition inside). Convoy Thread 11/ The 200 trucks need to travel from Russia to their division (every night, round trip) to get the next day's ammunition, fuel & food, or else that division cannot fight. It is a standard measure of trucks, and how much the resupply is needed DAILY· Convoy Thread 12/ So if this 40 mile (64km) convoy is about 1,500 vehicles, and they are mostly supply trucks, it could be about 1,400 supply trucks, with 100 armored vehicles 'riding shotgun' for protection. So this is total one day resupply for SEVEN DIVISIONS. Convoy Thread 13/ Remember where this convoy is stuck? Dozen miles outside of Kyiv. Seven divisions, 70,000 men, is about the right number of soldiers to lay siege to Kyiv to surround city of 3 million. Is consistent with 21,000 who sieged Grozny, city of 400,000 in Chechen war. Convoy Thread 14/ Also understand Russian war plan for Ukraine. They had attacks in North, East and South. Out of about 150,000 men, roughly half would attack from North (from Belarus) in a 'blitzkrieg' lightning strike, to quickly take Kyiv. So 7 divisions is about right. Convoy Thread 15/ We hear regular stories about ongoing fighting and modest advances by Russia in the SOUTH. There, they have ample supply & resupply. And we see catastrophic losses in the North, because Russian army is OUT OF RESUPPLY. All of their trucks are STUCK on this road. Convoy Thread 16/ Let me be VERY clear. A Russian division of 10,000 men carries only ONE day of ammunition, fuel & food INSIDE their vehicles, and a SECOND day is in those 200 trucks. Which HAVE to drive to Russia for the THIRD day of combat (& fourth, fifth, etc, every night). Convoy Thread 17/ As long as these 1,400 resupply trucks are STUCK on the road - NO Russian Division in Northern Ukraine can continue to fight. They cannot move, they cannot shoot. The men are hungry, and forced to be stealing food. And many are surrendering. Convoy Thread 18/ Note these are large military resupply trucks like Ural 5323 to move 152mm artillery shells & 122mm mortar shells & typically carry about 10 tons, & usually pull a trailer for another 10 tons. Yes. A Russian division consumes about 4,000 TONS of supply per DAY. Convoy Thread 19/ With the total resupply force of 1,400 trucks stuck on ONE ROAD, the TOTAL Northern Russian army is IMMOBILIZED and out of ammo. This is why Ukraine is having continuous series of successes against the army in the North. Convoy Thread 20/ Can they break out? No. Could Ukraine destroy them? Yes but that is not a PRIORITY. They are STUCK. Destroy the TANKS first (7 divisions have 1,500 tanks in Northern Ukraine, now out of fuel). Can Russia bring new trucks? No as ROADS into Ukraine now defended. Convoy Thread 21/ This convoy was a MASSIVE MILITARY BLUNDER by Russia. Putin's Generals put all their eggs in one basket (in the North) and Ukraine can smash those eggs any day they want. Or wait until they surrender. SMART TACTICS by Ukraine! Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy Thread/1 It is day 19 of Ukraine War. On Day 1, a mysterious convoy of 40 miles (64km) became stuck on the shortest road from Belarus to Kyiv. & while an obvious target for ambush, Ukraine did not destroy this convoy. Was a BRILLIANT tactical move! Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/2 As so many, I was bewildered, why did Ukraine not destroy this 'sitting duck' convoy. And I studied it, and pondered the military strategy involved. After two weeks, I wrote my analysis: Russian invasion of Ukraine involves a 40 mile (64km) long convoy of Russian military vehicles, that has been stalled for 2 weeks outside Kyiv the capital city of Ukraine. Some of the convoy is dispersing. I said convoy was a military mystery. Let's dig into it. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/3 In the comments to my Thread, we had excellent discussions. I want to write this follow-up to answer some questions, and to discuss military relevance of the disaster of the 40 mile convoy, perhaps Putin's biggest military blunder of the Ukraine war. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/4 I was asked how many troops are in this 40 mile convoy. I said I estimate it is supply for 7 divisions = 1,400 supply trucks = driver + co-driver = 2,800 men. And one regiment for escort = 2,000 infantry in 167 armored cars like this BTR-90. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/5 In terms of support troops, one such armored fighting vehicle and 12 men, for every 400 yards, of the 40 mile convoy. And in terms of vehicle interval, 8 supply trucks for every 1 armored car escort. All seem reasonable, in terms of convoy logistics. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/6 But understand, this convoy is not tanks. It is 1,400 heavy trucks, has 2,800 bus drivers, and protecting them a tiny detail of 2,000 infantry. This force of 4,800 total men could not defeat a Ukrainian girl scout camp. They are not a 'threat'. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/7 On Day 1, in Northern Ukraine the comrades of these 'bus drivers', the FIGHTING force of 7 divisions (70,000 men) ie 65,200 soldiers, 7,000 armored vehicles, attacked on OTHER roads, from Belarus, towards Kyiv. They ran out of fuel at 12 miles to go. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/8 Some had misunderstood my writing (I was not clear enough). This 40 mile convoy is not those 70,000 soldiers. It is the fuel, ammunition and food, for one day - for those 70,000 soldiers. Those 7 divisions have invaded Ukraine & are at gates of Kyiv. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/9 Some asked of alternate resupply. Yes. The moment a Russian General noticed his supply convoy is delayed, he would issue a command to ration supplies. This happened no later than Day 2. Conserve fuel food & ammo. That means MINIMAL MOVEMENT of armor. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/10 Next, as Day 3, Day 4, the supply convoy has not reached the troops, the Generals will demand urgent resupply of vital materials. This is not medicines. It is not food. The urgent resupply is DEFENSIVE ammunition, bullets, tank & anti-aircraft ammo. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/11 This urgent defensive ammo resupply happened daily by helicopter if necessary. The Russian soldiers never stopped fighting. The SECOND most urgent need was fuel. That they started to SCAVENGE from Ukrainians (diesel) & Russia sent what it could. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/12 The third need is offensive ammo. Artillery and mortar rounds, bombardment rockets. These are ENORMOUSLY bulky and heavy. They HAVE to be transported by ground, by heavy trucks. With the intended convoy stuck, Russia HAD to bring REPLACEMENT trucks. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/13 Food is almost forgotten & medical supplies, Russian army does not care too much about its casualties, so it is a low priority. When Russia noticed the 40 mile convoy is stuck they would start to organize alternative smaller convoys, on other roads. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/14 These replacement supply trucks have to come from active Russian military bases, 200 trucks appropriated from 7 nearest divisions, each, their total supply capacity, and driven to Northern Ukraine (through Belarus). About 2 days driving (empty). Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/15 Russia will replace most, perhaps all of the resupply capacity they lost in this 40 mile convoy. But Putin was forced to issue the order to be 'self-sufficient' ie rob the Ukrainian civilians for food and fuel, two weeks into this war. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/16 It means that rather than do full resupply from Russia, Putin will only send ammunition, and some fuel, and expects his Russian army to steal the rest of the fuel, and all of the food - & likely - that Putin knows, his tanks will not INVADE further. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/17 Which brings us to the evaluation of the blunder of 40 mile convoy. We know Russian armor and infantry reached Irpin, on NorthWest suburbs of Kyiv. But Russia did not encircle Kyiv (yet). It was one day of fuel to drive tanks from Belarus to Irpin. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/18 The designated refueling point was town of Hostomel (where Antonov airport is located). And this 40 mile convoy is less than an hour from Hostomel, the first trucks mere minutes from their destination, but unable to ever get there. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/19 Let me explain how gargantuan this problem is, in terms of fuel. A Russian T 80 tank has 2,000 liter (525 gallon) fuel capacity. An BMP-3 armored vehicle 700 liters. To refuel ONE DAY of the 7 divisions outside Kyiv takes 2 MILLION GALLONS of fuel. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/20 You know these railroad cars that carry fuel (30,000 gallons, 110,000 liters). It would take 69 such railroad cars to refuel the 7 Russian divisions FOR JUST ONE DAY, and they had run out of fuel 12 miles outside of Kyiv. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/21 We know Putin WANTED to encircle Kyiv, because that is what he did in Mariupol, and has been standard Putin tactic since the siege of the city of Grozny in (Second) Chechen War. The tanks arrived to Irpin for ONLY this purpose. But ran out of fuel. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/22 Because Russian armor & infantry is FIGHTING in Irpin & NorthWest suburbs of Kyiv, we know they drove there (from Belarus) which is one day of fuel. We know RESUPPLY fuel did not arrive (20% of those 1,400 trucks carry 2 million gallons of diesel). Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/23 There is no sense in Putin fighting ONLY in NorthWest suburbs of Kyiv, unless he wants to either INVADE Kyiv (a suicidal military mission) or ENCIRCLE Kyiv to BOMBARD it to submission as he did in Grozny 1999, and is trying in Mariupol & Kharkiv. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/24 Now we get to the crux of it. Russian invasion planners f*cked up royally by placing all their fuel trucks in one basket, that 40 mile convoy. Ukraine played it brilliantly, by blocking that convoy before it reached Hostomel. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/25 It takes JUST one day of fuel (2 million gallons) so that the 7,000 tanks and armored vehicles ALREADY 12 miles from Kyiv, can encircle Kyiv so Russia can lay siege to Kyiv - if there is not fierce resistance in those suburbs. Day 1 or Day 2-3. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/26 If Ukraine had destroyed the 40 mile convoy on Day 1 or Day 2, then Russian Generals would have URGENTLY organized total resupply to replace convoy from Day 2, latest Day 3, gotten resupplied by Day 4-Day 5, and proceeded to encircle Kyiv. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/27 But because the convoy was LITERALLY one hour from the designated refueling place, when Ukraine did not destroy the convoy, Russians thought, they can get part of it to come through, and spent at least a week trying, including a portable bridge. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/28 We do not yet know the outcome. It is looking increasingly likely, that Ukraine will be able to prevent Russian army in the North, from EVER encircling Kyiv. The opportunity seems to be lost to Russia If so, this was a HUGE military victory. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/29 Because Russia IS 12 miles from Kyiv, in the NorthWestern suburbs, they can bombard Kyiv daily & nightly. But Kyiv is not surrounded, they are not in the horrible conditions of Mariupol, trapped without supply routes or escape routes. Aftermath of 40 Mile Convoy/30 Eventually we will know how long it took for the 7 divisions near Kyiv to be resupplied by new convoys. It SEEMS that wasted 2 weeks. If so & if Kyiv is never encircled, strategy to let the convoy survive, saved Kyiv & thousands of civilian lives.