PTINS

Russia exports ~ 5 million BPD of oil. The US SPR is ~ 750 Million BBL, or 150 days worth. Increased production (US & OPEC+), reserve draw downs (worldwide, not just US), and conservation should help bridge til the winter of 2022-23. Oil & Gas are different. Oil is a zero sum game. In a perfect world, let China take 100% of Russia exports, and let China's exisiting supply satisfy the previous importers of Russian oil. It will be a dynamic marketplace. Lot of ins , lot of outs. If the Russian gas is cut off from the EU: 1. There is really no place for the Russia gas to go, so the gas stays in the ground. Now the world Supply/demand is out of balance. 2. There are no unused gas pipelines (most efficient transport) to the EU to replace the Russian gas. 3. LNG is the next most attractive alternative, but most of the existing supply is already committed. The EU demand would take ~ 100% of the 2021 US LNG capacity. More US capacity came on line in early 2022 and more is coming later this year, and more for each of the next 4 years. Longer term, this should be a big part of the solution. Shorter term, I expect we sill see a shuffling of the existing worldwide LNG portfolio, and ... gasp ..., some restarts of older plants (coal, maybe nukes.) 4. Russia screwed the pooch on this one. No one to buy there world class gas reserves, except China. Russia & China are moving towards a new pipeline, the Power of Siberia 2 (POS, not kidding) from the arctic across Russia & Mongolia to China. ~2,600 miles (600 across Mongolia), +$20 Billion venture, with a lot of hair on it, +2030 time frame.

Do we have the equipment? No, we do not have the equipment to get back to the pre-Covid state of the industry. The supply chain of equipment, drill pipe, nuts and bolts, & people, etc., is nowhere close to where it was 2 years ago. Many companies went bankrupt, or merged, meaning there are just less fewer of them; you can't flip a switch and erase that. It takes time do rebuild that infrastructure. And money. Lots of money. The cost of Capital is higher and development, operating and maintenance costs are much higher (oil field inflation is worse than regular inflation). ... talking about something else? This. The social, political and regulatory climate. Who the fuck is "Big Oil" anymore; Exxon ($360B Market cap), Chevron ($330B, or Conoco ($130B)? BP & Shell hardly play in the US anymore. FYI, Apple comes in at $2.6 TRILLION & Amazon @ $1.5T. To be clear, I think the US should mash the gas and do whatever we can to wean the EU from depending on Russia for O&G.

No. Covid decimated O&G demand in 2020, it started rebounding later in the year, and the green intiative gave it a big kick in the nuts in 2021. The Oil & Gas industry is very capital intensive, and the investment community RAN away from the industry given the politcal environment. Wall Street demands capital discipline from energy companies, and trashing your 2022 budget and plan would not be viewed favorably. If the EU shuts off imports from Russia, is the US ready to step up and take up the slack? In the past month, Congress has floated trial balloons of protectionist policies, limiting exports of oil & gas and windfall profits taxes. The US is capable of meeting the challenge, but does the US want really to?

SIAP. Has this been confirmed, or is it BS? "The pride of the Nazi Black Sea Fleet - the newest patrol ship of project 22160 "Vasily Bykov" has been destroyed by the Ukrainian Army." per Oleg Konstantinov, the editor of a news website called Dumskaya in Ukraine's port city of Odessa. https://dumskaya.net/news/podvig-ukrainskih-moryakov-pod-udar-rszo-rossiys-160920/ "The impossible is possible! The Ukrainian fleet showed its teeth So, today there is finally an official confirmation of what your editors knew before - information about the successful operation of the Naval Forces of Ukraine, which managed to accomplish the impossible (which, by the way, no one has been surprised for a long time) and destroy the pride of the Nazi Black Sea Fleet - the newest patrol ship of the project 22160 "Vasily Bykov". Yesterday, this rocket-armed colossus, exceeding in its combat potential everything that the Ukrainian Naval Forces have in terms of surface forces, came under attack from Ukrainian naval rocket artillery. It happened in the Odessa region. The ship sank today. There is no information about the fate of the crew. True, the water is cold, and next to it is the valiant Ukrainian air defense, which has already proven that it can make the weather non-flying literally at the click of a finger. Helicopters will not get close to drowning people. But maybe someone got lucky. However, we are not talking about that now. As it became known to us, the defeat of Bykov was by no means due to a combination of circumstances - no, it was a planned and brilliantly implemented naval operation. Remember those memorable booms that were heard in Odessa for several days? We wrote that these are Russian ships trying to sink light Ukrainian boats - "gyurzas" and "ayleins". And that ours successfully evade. Unfortunately, one of the Ukrainian boats was sunk. Many sailors were saved. So, it turns out that the iron warriors of the Ukrainian Navy (and sitting in a boat with light weapons against such monsters as the Makarov and the Bulls - this must be a truly iron man) did not escape, but lured the Russians to a prepared, equipped and superbly camouflaged firing position N-th artillery brigade. Which at the right time did its job. The result is there. It is a pity that for the sake of this very important and unprecedented in the world military history (warships have never been sunk from the ground by RZSO systems), the victory had to be sacrificed by a beautiful boat and part of its brave crew. They will live in the hearts of the Ukrainian nation. Streets and squares will soon be named after them. Eternal memory to the heroes of Ukraine! Author — Oleg Konstantinov"

OSINTdefender The Russian Naval Task Force which consists of Multiple Amphibious Assault Ships is reported to be returning to Port in Crimea after Missing their Weather Window for the Second Time yesterday for a Planned Amphibious Operation near the Ukrainian Black Sea Coastal city of Odessa. Weather will not be Permitting for any Naval Amphibious Operations again in the Black Sea until at least Mid-next week. 12:22 AM · Mar 5, 2022·Twitter for iPhone

A lot of civilian cars being transported in Rostovskaya oblast, Russia. Replacement Supply vehicles?

For the first time Russian ruble falls to 0.0081 USD. A new record for Russian economy. What's the difference between a Dollar and a Ruble? A Dollar

Animation showing daily movement of lines. https://preview.redd.it/9l2hnvdwvel81.gif?format=mp4&s=db01c02105c42bf3f8203eeb7a41274e662e2fd3

I grew up on SAC bases with Buffs. When they would roll off continuously one after the other it was something you never forget. I sleep pretty easy now.

Russia is going to be on the hook to repair the Ulraine infrastructure. I don't see "normalized relations" with Russia for the forseeable future.

The Kyiv Independent obtained a WhatsApp audio message recorded by a woman residing in the city of Aleysk in Russia’s Altai region some 3,500 kilometers east of Kyiv, the home base for the 35th Brigade. In the voice message, an unidentified woman weeps telling her fellow WhatsApp group member that the local “tank brigade” was “totally destroyed in Ukraine.” "Hello girls. It's real bad here in Aleysk. Our tank brigade has been destroyed in Ukraine. Out of 150 guys, only 18 remain. Today first coffins are arriving. 45 two-hundreds (cargo 200 means dead soldiers) arriving in Aleysk. Parents are waiting. Our upstairs neighbour is killed, just a boy. Has a one year old kid. Besides that, Zhilin Zhenya (Evgeniy Zhilin). Besides that... Alexander, stop it (to the kid). Long story short - a lot of them from our factory (she works there apparently?). Three or four. Rest of them from the town Dereven (not sure if I hear the name of the town correctly), contractors (not conscripts) from villages, boys. We got the message about this yesterday. It's crazy. O, fuck, let's go to war (in a sad/ironic tone)!" https://kyivindependent.com/national/exclusive-voice-message-reveals-russian-military-units-catastrophic-losses-in-ukraine/

Texas Baseball beat Sam Houston St, 10-2.

We flew a C-121 from San Francisco to Manila, via Hawaii & Guam. Don't know how long it took, pretty sure there wasn't a movie.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/new/ Someone smarter that I can probaly post a link that works. Some good videos.

There was a good summary of this point in one of the earlier post. My summary of the good post: Acccept everything that we have seen about Russia's military prowess this week (poor intel, planning & execution, personnel, etc.) Russia used a significant portion of their front line military equipment in Syria, including losing front line aircraft and a using a disproportionate amount of their "smart bombs"/cruise missles, the stand off weapons that can be deployed from a distance. Even in Syria, they went to gravity bombing that exposes aircraft, because the more stand off weapons were not available. In Ukraine, they utilized aircraft to launch cruise missles over the land base platforms because?, they were out of them? Why deploy a plane when you can push a button. This ponts to the Russia budget v. what was actually spent on military hardware. They have the cheap stuff in spades, tanks & people; the high tech weapons that are a $100,000/bullet, not so much.

My $.02 worth. The accordion effect of a long line of cars stretches out as bits and pieces bunch up and stretch out over time. Growing from 17 miles to 40 miles doesn't necessarily mean more vehicles, probably just more space between the front & the back. Statistcally, a few of them broke down, and everyone that passes them slows down and rubbernecks, if not stopping and offering assistance. The spring thaw and muddy conditions prevents them from going off road and advancing along a front as opposed to a single column. It wouldn't take much to create a bottleneck at the front that creates a long line of stationary targets. Poor Russian training, planning & communications, switched street signs, and a long time for a motivated UA to plan an attack isn't quite as bothersome as some have suggested. The last 5 days have shown numerous pictures of Russian columns destroyed, damaged or abandoned and I expect, and hope, a significant portion of this one will end up looking the same. All the same, I wouldn't mind hearing about some close air support and the ensuing turket shoot.

IF we are dragged into Ukraine, ok. US involvement would be put a small part of larger EU/NATO effort. If Ukraine airspace is controlled by Ukraine and their many friends, game over for conventional warfare in Ukraine. Who knows what happens then. In any case, no US carriers battle groups are moving any closer than where they are. Conversely, anything involved w/ China/Taiwan would be waterborne and airborne. No reason to put boots on the ground IN China. China is in a posistion to gain immensly from this; would they put it all at risk for Taiwan for a bruised national pride. My father was stationed in Taiwan in '67-68, "still got the shirt."

Not sure if I qualify; Belarus doesn't have a thousand nukes. Fuck ' em! Hit 'em with a few stealth laser guided bombs and let them figure out where they came from.

I think everyone will be buying gas and oil from Russia quicker than anyone thinks but eventually at lower volumes. It takes too long to build out infrastructure systems to alleviate near ten shortage and in the long run the world is investing in alternative sources. I agree the Russian oil has to be brought to the market, but it will be complicated. Will the existing sanctions morph and oil $$$ funneled through some entity (UN, Nato, G7, ???) so the $$$ does not go back into the same existing corrupt Russian system? Russia will owe Ukraine and others (reimburse NATO and others for support given to Ukraine) war reparations for this shit show and may end up looking like Ukraine was in the 90's, a dysfunctional, corrupt, 3rd rate power, with thousands of nukes and immense natural resources. What happens to Russia post Putin? Depends on how Putin "leaves"? What then? Same ol' same ol? No Way! Civil War? Power vacumn? I don't think simply replacing Putin will work for the non-billionaires. Cannot have disarray and a free for all like Iraq with Russia's nuclear arsenal, and the fact they are the 2rd largest producer of oil & gas in the world. Blink your eyes and China will be in Western Russia before you can blink again. A strong Russia was bad, a defanged Russia may be worse.

I was born at Bergstrom AFB. My dad was en jet engine mechanic and we always lived close to the planes, mainly SAC bases & B52's. We always new we lived at prime target area's, if for no other reason, the 12,000 ft runways. I'm heading deep into the Hill Country and chilling in my Avatar.

Russia is ~ top 3 in oil & gas production, and they lost most of their buyers - Advantage Middle East Putin pushed the Green Movement to riding in the back of the bus on the back bumper - Advantage Middle East EU will replace Russian gas w/ LNG - Qatar only ME country with large LNG export capacity - DIsadvantage Middle East US Shale Development will get unleashed - DIsadvantage Middle East (US politically advantaged over ME) Big question is how much Russian O&G production stays on line. Sanctions will kill maintenance and production will fall. Two sets of buyers, No Sanctions (China, et al) and Sanctions (US, EU, Far East). Oil is zero sum game, China can buy most of Russian oil and existing China purchases go to prior buyers of Russian oil. I expect Russian Gas exports will decrease and be replaced with new production from US, SE Asia, Australia & Qatar. Too much Russian Oil ($Billion/day) for it not to be produced, >> lying, cheating & corruPUTIoN. Will US develop max gas production to support EU, or will US politics favor cheaper gas for US and much more expensive gas for Europe? Will NE US allow more pipelines or just bitch and complain like always? This will be the biggest geo-political event since WWII, and most of America will be Ukraine? What? Huh?

Sending Med students to battlefied hospitals. Ukraine asking Int'l Red Cross to help send dead Russians home. Captured conscripts calling their parents to tell them their story. Mass protests and arrests all across Russia. I think the people know.