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PTINS

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by PTINS

  1. This. Build subsidized renewables in the middle of nowhere, generate stranded energy production, earn renewable tax credits, use renewable profits to drill oil & gas wells, make money on fossil fuels, use renewable tax credits to offset fossil fuel profits. The end result is investment in part time renewable production results in full time and "Tax free" fossil fuel production. The biggest issue in Texas is the land is ~ 98% privately owned with very little government land available. High voltage transmission lines can only be constructed using condemnation and emminent domain; nobody wants transmission lines across their property, or anywhere close. As bad as cross country oil and gas pipelines can be, most of the "damages" are a result of construction and the surface area of the right-of-way still can be used for farming and ranching and hunting in a somewhat "normal" manner. A 500 kv transmission line ROW is much wider, much less aesthetically pleasing, and damn near useless for anything other than its intended purpose. I don't even want to walk under the lower voltage lines. For those of you familiar with climate change studies: Do they consider roadways, parking lots and concrete buildings and structures? That "city" heat was really driven home at the late season baseball games. Disch-Falk was hot as F**K; chairs under the overhang in the shade were still hotter than my body heat well after dark. That mass of concrete we call DKR, midday in September after 80+ days in 100F sunshine, is going to be brutal. Appreciate the varied opinions on a complex subject. I though energy was the biggest issue facing us a graduating engineer in 1979 and it is worse now given the population growth and the multiple layers of politics that impact it. Thermostat settings? Be smart, and considerate, for someone besides yourself.
  2. The most tragic of days in our long, proud history. A stain on the Tower that never goes away. I was 9, playing w/ friends outside, like any other day. Probably still talking about the Batman World Premier at the Paramount 2 days earlier. We went inside for a drink and snack and saw what was on the TV. Ran outside to see if we could see anything, but no, we were 7 miles away. Tried to talk my friends mom to take us downtown so we could see. We were young, and innocent. I was a freshman in '74. The daily trek from Jester to RLM, from Taylor Hall to the Drag, always with a casual eye on the tower. The observation deck was closed in '75 following a series other tragedies and the sad days that followed. And the happier days. Lit up in orange for Earl's Heisman, securing the Guttenberg Bible, the 4 millionith Library book, ... "Ye shall know the truth and the truth shall make you free”
  3. I said, "Each should pay their proportional costs without one subsidizing the other." Each should pay their proportional costs without one subsidizing the other =/= laying all of the costs ... at the feet of renewables.
  4. I don't know the specifics of Germany's nuke situation. I imagine a large part of the timing was related to the replacement of the nuclear fuel and/or major maintenance that was not done predicated on a plant shutdown. Once they put that plan in motion, it is not something that is easily reversed
  5. FIFY. Renewables + subsidies & rules are may be better for our, including the companies that own & operate the renewable assets, wallets. Companies that operate renewables earn "tax credits" for renewables that can be used to offset tax obligations from FF assets. I agree we need more renewables but the playing field is not level. The subsidies & production preferences and tax credits were put in place to allow renewables to be somewhat competitive w/ fossil fuels. Renewables should stand some of the costs associated with the NECESSARY standby power that is needed when the renewables aren't producing, and are idled when renewables are producing. Same thing w/ transmission lines. Fossil fuel plants are located proximate to demand. Renewables have a larger footprint and are located remotely. Each should pay their proportional costs without one subsidizing the other.
  6. A good number of countries are above 80%, including Norway, Denmark is at 60%, Germany gets ~30% from wind and solar combined. Local climate and intraday demand is a HUGE variable lost in these numbers. It's not so much the high temperature, but it's hot 16+/- hours a day for 6-8 months. The A/C Load in Texas is off the charts relative to Norway, Denmark & Germany. ERCOT Demand @ 5 am was 48,350 MW, Demand @ 6 pm ~ 79,100, a intra-day swing of over 30,000 MW. Just for the intraday swing, you need the equivalent of 12 South Texas Nuclear Power Plants, 10,000 wind mills, or a big ass battery system!!! The Siemens Energy simple cycle gas turbines that deliver 150 MW within 10 minutes are good for quick starts, but they are 35% less efficient than the combined cycle, which raises the fuel cost proportionally. A couple hundred of these would do the trick. I'm all for renewables, but you need a reliable back up system, and today, fossil fuel power generation makes more sense than batteries.
  7. You are right in that ~ 80% renewables implies tremendous overcapacity in 24/7 energy production, on the order of 60,000 MW. That scenario, having 80% renewables also means ~ 50-60,000 MW of “idle capacity”, a lot of which is hot & running at reduced capacity, just in case it’s needed. Somebody has to pay for capacity that is running but not producing commercial quantities of power. Regulated nightmare in an unregulated world, particularly with “peak shaving, for profit” power plants; running & selling 70,000 MW of production from 100,000 MW of connected and “able to produce” power. I assume wind & solar can sell whatever they produce, or is it “capped” at the upper end of production v. capacity? Is the hierarchy satisfy demand, sort it out later?
  8. Tony Two Toes: No one f***s with TEXAS !
  9. We were up there and the weather turned with a flip of a switch, snowing w/ thunder & lightning a couple of 1000' above the tree line. White knuckle, driving down on a skinnyass, curvy, sleet covered road. The Million $ Highway between Silverton and Ouray is a spectacular drive. Appropriate use of the word "breathtaking."
  10. https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-to-Caa2-NCCD-College-Station-Properties-LLC-Texas--PR_907761490 "29 Jun 2022 New York, June 29, 2022 -- Moody's Investors Service has downgraded the ratings of New Hope Cultural Education Facilities Finance Corporation, TX's Student Housing Revenue Bonds (NCCD - College Station Properties LLC - Texas A&M University Project) Series 2015A and Series 2015B to Caa2 from Caa1; affecting approximately $341.6 million in outstanding bonds. The outlook remains negative. The downgrade to Caa2 from Caa1 reflects the impending default by Park West (the "Project") on its July 1, 2022 scheduled debt service. Park West's partial payment for $8.5 million represents only 56% of the $15.265 million due in principal and interest. Other contributing factors include the depletion of virtually all liquidity, the balance sheet's structurally imbalanced position, and other legal claims against the property. Rent levels within the Park West submarket remain far below underwritten levels. For Park West to break even, revenue from student leases would need to grow by over 40%, based on 2021 operations." My read says the only connection to TAMU is the land is leased from TAMU.
  11. anybody got the pic of Perry thowing the Hook 'Em sign?
  12. Hydrogen sulfide is a chemical compound with the formula H2S. It is a colorless gas, and is poisonous, corrosive, and flammable, with trace amounts in ambient atmosphere having a characteristic foul odor of rotten eggs. That green slime may be some other toxic soup, but it is not Hydrogen Sulfide.
  13. Unless you join the Ukraine version of Mossad, you won't see it. You may read about it occasionally where a high profile war criminal had an "accident." It will happen. It allways does.
  14. I think with the amount of informatiion available on the specifics of Russian forces, (name, rank, personal & weapon serial numbers, hometowns, military history, etc.), the likihood that a Russian war criminal slinks back into his pre war life without consequences is a low probability. It won't be in the Hague, but justice will be served.
  15. Not my area of expertise, but ... With the new artillery Ukraine has received, UA can easily hit a target 25 miles away, which puts Belgorod, a major Russian rail & supply junction, within reach of the Ukraine border. I'd stay out of Russia, and just lob in 155mm rrtillery as needed, and redeploy other available assets to the south and east.
  16. The "rapidity of the withdrawal" was a major cluster fuck without proper consideration of the longer term consequences. Very similar to the coincident decisions to dramatically reduce the US production and use of fossil fuels, and the "need" to inject trillions of $ into a rapidly recovering economy. The Afghan disaster is precisely the reason we choose not to arm Ukraine with better weapons until after the invasion. The US intelligence community was spot on, but that does not necessarily apply to the US Government.
  17. Russia average DAILY losses over the past 10 days: UAV 11 These appear to be more reconnaissance than offensive weapons, comments? Tanks 20 Artillery 8 Armored Vehicles 37 Other Vehicles 31 Russia only lost 13 aircraft & 1 helicopter in the past ten days; probably due to fewer flights and avoidance of better UA air defense. Is Russia "saving" their air support for some offensive move? Tanks and armored losses total 57 per day, indicative of more and better drones and artillery operating in open terrain. As UA receives still better drones, longer range and bigger artillery, and more air assets, Russia's losses will increase. It appears Russia will just pound civilain targets until they can't. Viet Minh soldier: Do we take prisoners? Lt. Nguyen Huu An: No. Kill all they send, and they will stop coming.
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