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Everything posted by PTINS
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This project was always a very low probability, before the SMO began. Pre war costs estimated at $50+ Billion. Get the 2 worst business partners in the world on opposite sides of a contract, trying to get the other guy to put up the money.
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Proletarsk State Reserve Fuel Facility answers most of my questions. I expect this facility is on on the VIP tour, so the monies budgeted were actually spent. Of course, some of the tanks may be empty. Given the nature of the facility, I would guess it also stores aviation fuel. The larger tanks look to be 65-70' diameter, each holding ~1.4 million gallons or 33,000 barrels. Total facility storage ~ 2.3 million barrels, ~ 100 million gallons. Lots of inventory going up in smoke. By comparison, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stores crude oil, not refined products. The US meant to reduce the impact of crude oil imports. The number & volumes of US refining capacity is such that the daily production volumes and associated storage are suitable for the demand. In all my years, building facilities to protect against rockets & missiles & bombs never was a criteria.
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The oil facility in Proletarsk, supposedly hit by Ukrainian drone attack. The diesel fire sent 41 firefighters to the hospital. One article mentioned secondary explosions. This "oil" facility doesn't look like anything in Russia, or the US for that matter. The facility is new, built in the last 10 years. It is clean and well organized, square layout w/ uniformity, tanks appear to be on poured concrete pads, very unusual, maybe they don't have caliche. Why do they have so many smallish tanks, (70 @ ~ 70' diameter) for diesel? Why not a few larger tanks? Diesel burns, but it doesn't explode like gasoline or natural gas. It's not close to a refinery; the facility is remote, 1 mile from everything, with a dedicated, dead end rail spur. No truck loading facility, to access to water, no vehicles and no parking lot. There is a double fence around the perimeter, with guard towers at the corners. Lots of tall antenna's, weird light poles? Definitely military.
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Shock and awe? "... a military strategy based on the use of overwhelming power and spectacular displays of force to paralyze the enemy's perception of the battlefield and destroy their will to fight?" So even Margarita's friends (the boobs on the TV, not the fun bags) suggest that Russia evacuate all the people from Kurst and let Ukraine borrow it. Openly talking about preparing the Russian populace for what's gonna end up happening? Calling attention to the 3 day SMO now at 900+ days. The rot from the inside is always the worst. Beyond an incursion into Belogrod ... I thinks that's the whole enchilada. I'll post separately with some details, but I think the Belrogod area is it. It's interesting reading about the Russian bunkers in the border areas, like underground cities. I liked the part that said Ukraine had the plans on a lot of these areas and that Moscow probably doesn't. Fortified underground command and control on Russian soil is intriguing. The Kurst Oblast has 1.1 million people in 11,000- square miles, or ~ 100 people per square mile. Basically, an area the size of the Texas Hill Country with a population density less than half of Llano County. Not really the kind of place you would bomb to get rid of people, The Donbas advance has been unwelcome news, but I agree they are very different things, tilted in Ukraine's favor. Donbas would be a good place to christen the F-16's.
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Thanks! Not to make this about me ... but its about me! Growing up around B-52's, I never liked Russia, and over the past 900+days, I have come to hate damn near everything about them. But this board wouldn't be here without them. I read your posts on other threads here, but nothing else come close to this one. And the info shared by so many here as been one of the most educational opportunities In my not so young life. I have all these obscure, useless facts taking up precious space in my head, things I will never talk about, unless its to myself, and I can't be here for 10 minutes without those factoids bubbling up from long term storage. Coupling what I think I know or remember from long ago with a wiki query and a Google search and the information at our fingertips is light years different from using a card catalog and the Readers Guide to Periodical Literature. I have other vices from the days of my youth, so if I take off on a circular tangent, ... be nice. This response was to your quote on the B-52 sortie from Barksdale to Iraq. I "know" a B-52 from Barksdale went down with a nuke a long time ago, but only because my company, before my time, had to relocate some pipelines in the general area. There is so much info out there now on all these things that were classified when we heard about them, but not on everything. So, now Biden is reading Surly? From the link: When you start adding up all the bits and pieces left of what was Russia's domain and arsenal of destruction from the Cold War, there isn't much left. Other than the nukes. The green area is bordered on the west and south by Ukraine, on the east by the Ukraine forces, and on the north by the River. I'm having a hard time seeing how (or why?) any Russians could get down there in the first place (see below), unless they were baited to come on down ... Taking out the bridges is strategic. If Ukraine takes out the 3 rail bridges over the Seym River at Lgov and Kurst, Belgorod is cut off from rail service from the north. Rail to Kharkiv would still be an option. The polygon is 10,000 sq miles. Lions & Tigers and Bears? How about F16's & Abrams & Challengers & ATACMS & JASSMs? "You have horses golf carts and motorcycles!!! What were you thinking? You ignorant servile scum!" Fixed it for Webster. That's a Bingo! My Google Earth sleuthing indicates the video is of the Seym River Bridge at Zavannoe. Apparently the one at Glushkovo was also hit, but the video is mislabeled. You can see the waves washing up on the banks in the video. The banks are not exposed on the Glushkovo Bridge. My parallel is drilling for oil & gas wells. It used to be hit miss; lots of dry holes. Not anymore. It's hit, hit, hit. Shits happening fast!
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I went back and looked at the Compression Stations along Russia's Urengoy Pipeline. Russia has 42 stations along the ~2,700 mile, with the average station about ~ 150,000 HP. A GE Frame 5 Gas Turbine (a DC-1O engine) produces 25,000 HP, this is probably what was available when the pipeline was built. My info is dated, but these would have been $10+ million each when they were installed in the 80's. Here is the Kurskaya Compressor Station about 50 miles upstream of Sudzha.~ near Kursk. The five blue buildings would be the larger gas fired turbines. The compressor station is a much more substantial facility than the Sudzha Meter Station. There are actually multiple pipelines in this pipe corridor and the smaller, similar facility in the lower right probably serves one of the other pipelines. These stations are all located ~ 2,000 feet away from the mainline pipe corridor. In the event a pipeline ruptures, by man or my nature, you don't want to be anywhere close by when it happens. They had an accident on this pipeline in 2007. "As a result of the gas explosion, the crater with a diameter near 100 m remained; the territory with a radius of 1.0 km was completely burnt out. The trees were charred and the soil was changed to an orange substrate (burned into glass). Separate parts of the pipeline were ... blown ... away by the explosion a distance of 60 - 70 meters." The 56" pipe weighs about 1 ton for every 4 feet of pipe. A 56" pipe, at 1,000 PSI, open to atmosphere, would have ~ 2,500,000 lbs of thrust, about 2X the Space Shuttle. That would be before it ignited. Russia Gas Pipeline Explosion
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I was wondering, "How far away can an F-16 launch a missile? , and Voilà..., the answer magically appears. The AGM-158 JASSM-ER (Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile-Extended Range) has a range of over 575 miles, and carries a 1,000 pound warhead. The US, Poland & Finland already have these in hand, I think. Russia built 497 TU-22 variants, with the first flight in 1969, and they still have ~ 55 in service. (55/497, 11%). I think this is #4 or 5 they have lost (by Ukraine, or crashed) since the SMO begin. They are definitely a finite resource, one that has had operational issues since it was introduced. Russia only keeps these at 3 bases, 2 near Moscow and one in Irkutsk, near Mongolia. For comparison, the US built 102 B52-H, entered service in 1961, and still have 76 in service (~ 75%).
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The Belata Air Base in Irkutsk is 2,800 miles from Kharkiv. Russia is estimated to have 50ish Tu-22M3 "Backfires" remaining. It appears Russia is systematically reducing their national defense to support the 3 day SMO.
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There are a lot of these little towns with the same name. The 2 different Lyubimovka's are shown directionally from the Kurskaya Nuclear Power Plant, one ~ 12 miles south, which is where I think is Ukraine, and the other about 23 miles north. My color code; the orange labels are where Ukraine is/has been (maybe just attacked, not necessarily troops on the ground) and the red labels are where contract between UK-RU has been reported. The green area is the 700' elevation plateau, the highest ground other than the area southeast of the Sudzha-Kurst Road (R200). The light blue lines are railroads. The light blue area is my guestimate of what territory Ukraine "holds", ~ 800 Sq Km. Along the road towards Lgov, it may just be a few recon vehicles and troops driving down the road looking at the farms along the way. Keep in mind, on White Tail opening weekend, one could argue that the "Texas Militia has taken over the state", given the large numbers of armed and camo'd green men with provisions for an extended stay. What is Ukraine doing here? Generally, Ukraine wants to push Russia's glide bombing attacks further rom the border. Not sure if this area fits that description. A hell of a bargaining chip when it comes time to sort all this out.. This area is only ~ 200 miles east of Kyiv, and 300 miles SE of Moscow. (Austin between Dallas and the Valley), a big cork between Russia & Ukraine, with a Nuke, the a big fucking Ga$ line. Between this area and Balarus-Ukraine border to the west, there is hardly any infrastruture. Towards the east, their is rail between Kurst and Belgorod. The terrain itself looks more like the Columbus-La Grange without any significant geographical features, towns in small river valleys surrounded by farm land. Talk about a giant cock roaches with tanks and armor and F-16's. Other than carpet bombing the area, not sure how Russia can get them out. Tanks pulling up at a Denny's for breakfast? I love it!!!
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When Conoco was building their Polar Lights Gas Plant in Russia in the 80's, they were discussing staffing levels after start up. Conoco said 25-30, Russia wanted 500. One question came up, "What are they going to do?" Efficiency and technology were never part of the equation, as we all know by now.
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We talk about force multipliers, I think Russia has force dividers. Early in the SMO, when Russian guys were unloading trucks by hand, shell by shell rather than having pallets, I really started questioning what I thought knew. Knowing they wrecked their training capability, which was probably B-/C+ to begin with, and watching their fiasco trying to take Hostomel Airport, nothing makes me think they have any semblance of a coordinated, well conceived plan, and that was 2 years ago. Putting a flying chassis on their dumb iron bombs is the most innovative thing we've seen. Pretty sure the launch point for those things is getting ready to move way back. They have regressed to using personal trucks, golf carts and motorcycles. Up against ATACMS and F-16s?
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I will tell you what I know from a US perspective, where there is substantial operational and safety oversight (industry peer review) and instrumentation and telemetry that permits operational balancing on a near real time basis. Custody transfer measurement affects $$$, between the regulated pipelines, for profit pipelines, marketing companies, municipalities, end use customers, etc. I would be surprised if Russia is anywhere close to US standards. The mega $$$ joint ventures w/ western oil companies would be the exception. To clarify one thing, it is a "slug" , not sludge, of liquid hydrocarbons that condensed from the gas stream. You sell the heat content of the gas or the volume (gallons) of the liquid, with the liquid value ~ 5-10X gas value, depending on many different factors. The Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) are my domain. This station is primarily a measurement facility. That would include monitoring pressure, temperature, density, and gas composition to measure the volume and thermal content of the gas being delivered. Generally, you would have some version of this at every facility along the pipeline. Generally, Custody transfer measurement is a higher level of accuracy than operational measurement. Usually you have measurement wherever gas enters and leaves the system, or close to lines of demarcation (borders/state lines/open water crossings, etc.). In this case, the border crossing warrants measurement, "...this is how much gas was delivered from Russia to Ukraine." From the map below, you can see the line crossing into Ukraine near Sumy, where it branches from 1 big line into 3 smaller ones. Keep in mind this is a schematic depiction, the actual connections maybe closer to the border or further into Ukraine depending on the terrain, proximity to roads, power lines, cities, etc. Everyone of the these branches would have measurement. Gas (vapor) is different from oil or gasoline (liquids). For liquid pipelines the ins and outs have to balance or something bad happens, you open a valve before you close a valve. The compressibility of the gas allows some surge capacity; you to put more in than you take out "pack the line" and simply raise the pressure in the pipeline. Long, large diameter pipelines have a large amount of "surge or storage" capacity. Taking out more than you put in is similar, but different. Lower operating pressures affect delivery capacities, so there are limits on taking more than the contract quantities. Ideally, the instrumentation along the pipeline has alarms for any operational anomaly that can be identified, and corrected or remedied before something bad happens. Gas will leak until it is shut off, dissipates, for finds an ignition source. Contrary to what 99% of non-industry people think, Safety is always the top priority.
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The picture shows the above ground assets of the Sudzha Gas Meter Station in Russia. I have no information on the station itself, so I will comment on what I see and other information that is available. The pipeline flows from the NE (Russia) to the SW (Ukraine). The 56" line is buried, and the above ground assets include 4 banks of Meter Tubes, 2 of which were damaged. If there was damage to the pipeline itself, there would be a crater ~ 100+ ft across and 20 feet deep, with a fireball 100's of feet high, consistent with the rupture of a 56" natural gas pipeline flowing at 1,000 # of pressure, sounding something like a jet engine at full after burner. I expect that the yellow box in the lower left corner is an area that would include the manifolding for switching flows between the various meter banks. This indicates the measurement may be compromised, but the pipeline itself is intact, at least as much as it was before last week. TLDR. The Urengoy (Brotherhood) pipeline was commissioned in 1984 and originates in the Urengoy Gas Field, ~ 2,000 miles away in northern Siberia. The pipeline flow 700+ miles across Ukraine, splitting as it enters near Sumy (Sudzha), and at various points in Ukraine and again as it moves further towards Eastern Europe. The Sudzha meter station shows the meter tubes, consistent with the characterization of Sudzha as a meter station, simply a custody transfer measurement point between Russia and Ukraine, to assist in doing a material balance across the pipeline system. Typically, a mainline Block Valve (BV) is closed and the gas is diverted from the below ground mainline to the above ground assets, in this case, the meter tubes. Each of the 4 meter banks appears to have 5 tubes (size unknown), but 5 24" meter tubes would handled the full flow gas stream. Most measurement systems require laminar rather that turbulent flow, so you need a long straight run of pipe upstream (~ 20 pipe diameters) of the meter and downstream (5-10 pipe diameters). This tells me the measurement capacity is (a) ~ 4X the gas flow, or the mainline flow is split into 2 smaller streams, each with a typical 100% redundancy or (b) requires 3 measurement banks, with one spare or (c) none of the above. The meters and tubes are specialty pieces of equipment, but smallish in nature. Necessary for most accurate measurement possible, but the older technology still works. Probably sanctioned items, but ... Sudzha but does have any compression facilities nor does it show a "slug catcher", a structure constructed to remove any condensate (liquids) from the pipeline. UTOS Slug Catcher & Compressor Station, near Cameron, Louisiana The mainline compressor sets are major pieces of equipment and the heart of the pipeline system, up to ~ 25,000 HP gas turbines with centrifugal compressors. Damages to these would be huge, irreplaceable due to sanctions. The slug catchers are massive structures ( ~15 pipe sections, 1,000 feet long, 42" diameter, with associated manifolds and gas/liquid separation capacity) fabricated to catch and stabilize the large slugs of liquids that condense in the pipelines. These are not located at the Sudzha Station. Ukraine showed enough to get the message across; "We are here and we could have done much worse." At the same time, they have 700 miles of a Russian pipeline crossing Ukraine. They could stop the flow any time they wanted, but they also need the gas.
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Interesting, and thought provoking, read. This really gives some insight about the "logistics tail" of the F-16. Ukraine used its fleet of four AN-124, 4-engine cargo planes, over 5 days, to bring two F-16s and, in all likelihood, the necessary support equipment from the US to Poland. Each can carry 150 tons of cargo. These were not direct flights, but hopscotching and shuttling across the globe. The places they landed, multiple times, included ... Singapore, Leipzig, Fairbanks AK, Tucson AZ, UAE, Mobile AL, Ft. Worth TX, Portsmouth, NH, Montreal, Rzeszow in Poland, Evenes in Norway, Leige Niersey? in Belgium?, Anchorage AK, Ciudad Juarez Mexico (Tequila?), and Dulles in DC. It's obviously more complex than jumping in a couple of F-16 and grabbing some tankers and flying across the ocean. I remember many moons ago reading about the 1986 US raid on Libya, using F-111's from RAF Lakenheath, England, via the Straits of Gibraltar, as France & Spain refused to give the US overflight clearance. In an interview, the pilots made a distinction between flying commercial over the ocean and flying on the deck, with multiple aerial refuelings, at night. The differences between the US air logistics command, a marvel of organization & coordination, and the Russian equivalent, is staggering.
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A few important points, Natural Gas (NG), Natural Gas Liquids (NGL), and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) are all related, but they are much different from each other, and the terms Natural Gas & LNG should not be used interchangeably. Natural Gas Liquids are removed from the produced gas stream and are used for rural heating (propane) and as feed stocks to petrochemical plants and blending stocks in refinerieries for motor gasoline. Natural Gas is processed in plants, the NGL removed, and the remaining gas (residue gas ~ pure methane) is transported via long haul pipeline networks that criss cross the country. The term "natural gas" is used to represent produced at the wellhead as well as gas used by end use consumers, though those are very different forms of of the same thing. Natural gas is transported at high pressure ~ 1,000 PSI and ambient temperatures, where the pressure in the cities is reduced within the municipalities to the point that local distribution is on the order of ounces of pressure (~ 1/4 PSI). Liquified Nat Gas is processed natural gas that is cool and liquified ( −260 °F, ~ 4 PSI) in world class LNG Plants, and transported via HUGE LNG tankers. LNG, as transported, IS NOT USED by consumers. LNG is regassified at at equally large facilities, where the gas is warmed to ambient temperature and compressed to high pressure (~1,000) for further distribution in long haul pipelines. The expansive quality of LNG is a 600 fold increase/decrease in volume (the mother of all fuel air bombs). Natural gas is transported in buried pipelines (generally 10" to 48" diameter) while LNG is transported via huge LNG Tankers. Nothing going on with Ukraine's push into southern Russia has anything to do with LNG. The Urengoy gas pipeline traversing from Siberia, Russia to Western Europe (Soviet Bloc) via Ukraine (~ 2,800 miles, built in 1974) was the largest capacity Russian pipeline until the Nordstream pipelines were built ~ 2011 (to Germany & western Europe). Ukraine basically "controls" the pipeline once it crossed the border. The "gas meter station" in the recent press is, at a minimum, a control room of sorts with instrumentation of operate and control the pipeline. There are typically large compressor stations along the pipelines (+/- ~ 150 miles) to boost the pipe pressure. Not sure if there is anything like that near Sudzha. I thought I read they took control of the station. There would be no reason to blow up "idle" facilities, whether they be meter stations or compressor stations, etc. , unless they are going scorched earth. Once the pipelines enter Ukraine, they would be controlled by Ukraine.
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Bringing in the big gun w/ the Sherman Tank, well … 75 mm any way.
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From the links, the map shows Russian fortifications in the area consist of anti-tank ditches & obstacles and strongpoints. There are not multiple layers of trenches and other infantry fighting positions. In the map, the most significant fortifications in the area. Following the Vince's strategy and Prigozihn's lead, Run to Daylight, it looks like Ukraine choose to run straight north up the road rather than deal with the Russian fortifications along the east-west lines. The orange icons in the plot below show the various towns mentioned in the past few days, with Sudzha to the south and Kursk to the northeast. The 700' plateau depicts the high ground in the middle, overlooking the rail roads and highways, and the Kurskaya Nuclear Power Plant. Short term, this appears to give Ukraine "influence" of an area with some intrinsic value without spend or committing significant resources. Gaining access and/or control of the Nuke is a hell of a bargaining chip, given that both countries are going into the winter short of power generation capacity. The Urengoy gas pipeline transiting the area is idle for the most part and is already controlled by Ukraine, so taking control of the Sudzha Meter station is symbolic more than anything. The Cockroach factor is huge. The psychological effects of the leaflets, air raid sirens, e- warfare, and Ukraine flags over Russian territory, etc. will make the natives restless. Ukraine does not appear to have many assets in the area, but it will be a bitch for Russia get them out. How will Russian force them out? Bombs and rocket attacks on their own soil & people? Giving the F-16's a play pen void of air defenses? I would think the half-life for any Russia troops brought into the area is going to be pretty damn short.
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Family is from Louisiana, mother is Swedish. His dad has been his coach since forever, and Mondo wanted his dad to coach him for the Olympics. US said no. Swedes offered him $50,000 each time he broke the WR. I think today was #10.
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Noah Lyles tied for having the slowest reaction time of anyone in the field, but he still won the men's 100m final... REACTION TIMES: Fred Kerley 🇺🇸 - 0.108 Marcell Jacobs 🇮🇹 - 0.114 Akani Simbine 🇿🇦 - 0.149 Kenny Bednarek 🇺🇸 - 0.163 Oblique Seville 🇯🇲 - 0.171 Kishane Thompson 🇯🇲 - 0.176 Noah Lyles, Letsile Tebogo 🇺🇸🇧🇼 - 0.178 Saw this on another site. It shows the 10 meter splits from start to finish. Lyles was last out of the gate and still last at the 40 meter mark. Top 7 guys finish less than a tenth of a second apart. Awesome race.
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Thank you all again for the information and insights you bring. Russia being Russia I think it's a combination of corruption and arrogance, and reality. The corruption and the differences in budgeted and built are well known. Their arrogance gave them a false sense of air defense capabilities. We mirrored similar beliefs in those capabilities until ~ 892 days ago). It still boggles my mind how much we (the Royal 'we") overvalued Russia's military capabilities until 2022. The reality is that the military facilities are mainly steel and concrete. While the planes can be moved ("The damn things have wheels" - FDR), the infrastructure is static. When Google Earth first came out, I located all the Air Force Bases I lived at, had seen, or knew about. I also located all the O&G processing facilities I came across in 40 years. Cool stuff, right? I remember the first time I went to Mont Belvieu in 1980, the largest concentration of Natural Gas Liquids processing and underground storage in the world. (Think about downtown Houston, turn it upside down so the building are square holes in the ground, and fill them up with propane; that approximates MB NGL storage capacity). There used to be a confluence of NGL-Pet Chem pipelines called "Xxxxxxx - Xxxxxxx". Enough about that... The only calming influence I have now is that I live 200 miles away and I don't work in that industry anymore. The reality of life in 2024; with GPS data, drones, and ordinance, you could give a nine year old a game controller and a monitor and he could do in a few hours (flight time) what would have been impossible not too long ago. It is what it is. The new reality is scary for many reasons. Most US Air Bases also have their planes in the open, with the normal parking places well known. The biggest difference in that the daily threats to the US bases and infinitesimal compared to the Russian bases. A lot of the pictures we see of the US hardened aircraft shelters are at foreign locations with a higher threat exposure, or an areas with extreme weather conditions. Russian Air Bases and Air Assets I agree that the US mindset is totally different than Russia's. Nobody is invading the US. Of the Russian Air Bases I've looked at over the past 2 1/2 years, I only recall seeing one that I would characterize as a "refueling wing". There may be others, or not? By comparison, the US has ~ 400 Air refueling aircraft in inventory. Russia only built 53 Ilyushin Il-78 4 engine aircraft. I only looked at jet engine powered aircraft, not prop driven, 🙂. The US tends to collocate the refueling aircraft with the bigger bombers, with smallish ratios. At Russia's Engels Air Base, the public photo's only show 1 or 2 tankers for the bomber fleet. The Engels mini air museum does not have an Il-78 airplane. If Russia only had a very small number of their AWACS equivalents, I imagine the air refueling assets are also somewhat limited.
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From the link ... Somebody leaked footages of the Russian submarine “Rostov on Don”, which got hit by Ukrainian missiles (likely Stormshadow). The bow of the submarine received a direct hit. Additionally, there is an impact at the starboard side. You can strike this ship from the list. Yeah, I know, "it'll buff out." It looks like the Russkie's like to store their ordinance where it's convenient ... , for them and Ukraine. Care to offer an opinion on what those tubes are, or were?
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They never showed the graphic of finish order and times on the main broadcast.
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