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PTINS

Burnt Ends
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Everything posted by PTINS

  1. Speaking of Black Powder ... (Thanks for bring it up.) As an Assistant Scoutmaster at Camp Pioneer (BSA - Arkansas), I participated in the Mountain Man program; cooking, eating, throwing a hatchet, making fires, candles and 50 Cal musket balls, and shooting the musket balls at a target. Due to SM role, I was late to the shooting competition, fired 2 practice shots, and three shots that counted. Aim small, miss small. The commentary was something like, "Nice Shot!, You got to me kidding me!, I'll be god damned!!!" Don't Mess With Texas!
  2. Mousing around on a slow night, a few juicy targets NW of Moscow: Tver, ~ 100 miles NW; Migalovo(?) Air Base, large 4 engine transport planes (jets & props) Torzhok, ~ 150 miiles NW of Moscow Large Gaz Prom Pump Station, oil or refined products? Lubricants Production Complex, formerly Shell Oil Also a helicopter airbase, oil depots, and another oil pump station. Can't wait to see the after pictures.
  3. Rod earned playing time along side multiple AA's and Thorpe winners. He knows what good DB play and players look like. He's also watched Texas, as an analyst, for the past few years. What Texas has now is light years better than 2 or 3 years ago. Having a DB room that grades from B+ to- C- is a big reason to be "Mr. Negativity." What Texas has now is light years better than 2 or 3 years ago. Too early to call it a strength, but definitely improved from years past. very good team ... with a depleted roster? Does not compute. Yes, yes, yes, yes, and HELL YES! Turf field and cool weather will showcase the Texas team speed Saturday. Salk always praises the team as fast and violent. Texas wins.
  4. I've heard how clear Lake Superior is. Please confirm.
  5. Thanks for the info. I missed the game and didn't see the highlights till late last night (funeral). Texas looked good; played damn near everybody, all 3 transfer WR getting TD's, with 10? guys catching passes in the 1st half, gonna give the Michigan DC a lot to think about. Pretty vanilla on both sides of the ball. Not a lot of real imaginative play calling on offense and still seems like a lot of passes were to wide open guys on the move. There weren't a lot of defensive plays I saw; 2 nice pics and liked Gbenda stuffing that guy in the middle. Didn't see much stunting, blitzing, etc. Saturday's game should be more wide open, I'm thinking Alabama 2.0. Weather looks to to be good for Saturday. Waking up to weather in the 40's is muy bueno. Michigan Stadium's field is artificial turf. The field may be wet, but shouldn't be an issue. Hopefully a fast track.
  6. Don't worry, I think there's an attorney here that might be able to help you.
  7. I know anyone talking about practice is forbidden by the ministry, so I wonder how much real practice time CW has had. His foot injury was not a common injury, with a longish recovery time. All QB's are protected in practice anyway, but given he couldn't run at game speed during the summer, how much conditioning did he really get? He had some really ugly throws last night. I'm guessing his issues are more injury recovery related and less conditioning.
  8. Boom!!!
  9. Many have commented on Russia's advance west of Donetsk towards Pokrovsk and the short/longer term possibilities. There's a lot of random data that supports a plan to trap and cutoff the Russian advance from their established base to the east. Below is a google screen shot to add some color to the picture. It's easy to see why it's called the mud season; there is not a normal river in this area, just a bunch of drainage areas/channels of sorts that eventually drain to larger ponds and lakes. Pokrovsk is the logistics hub, population ~ 60,000. Ocheretyne (what, where?) has a population ~ 3,500. There isn't much else out here, just a bunch of little villages and towns. The rail line between Donetsk and Pokrovsk is the main feature, traversing the high ground between the cities. The larger roads are shown, with smaller secondary and tertiary roads serving the area. Where the rail line makes a "dip" on the map west of "Ocher", the elevation drops from a ~750' plateau down to ~ 500' elevation. The area before and after Ocher is a very narrow corridor (1-3 miles wide) on the high ground between the various water channels. There is not an obvious railroad bridge west of Avdiivka. If and when the railroad west of Avdiivka is out of service, getting supplies to anything west to there would be very difficult, just a bunch of smallish roads in well defined corridors, with a choke point ~10 miles long and about 1-2 miles wide, all within a few miles of Ukraine-Russia contact line. Spotting for field artillery from a lower ground elevation would be difficult, but with the drones available, or some of the F-16's screaming across the deck, "Fugget about it!" I'm betting Ukraine has a rail bridge party here sometime soon, as well as taking out the 3 or 4 bridges in Kurst that cuts off Belrogod and 10,000 square miles, and a few others here and there. Any guestimates on the number of Russian troops and equipment west of Ocher?
  10. The Russian aggy government abruptly announces that oil and fuel rushing and passing production numbers will now be a state secret — Interfax Texags
  11. Thanks for posting. We were at Eglin AFB from '62-'66. My dad was able to take us out to the test ranges where we could see live fire exercises (Vulcan 20 mm rotary cannon), strafing runs, napalm, touch and go's. We used to fish off the "target docks." The Navy would coat them with napalm, and tow them out to the Gulf for target practice. Sometimes we would see the docks coated with the napalm. Good thing we weren't a bunch of fire bugs. The "Climatic Hangar", or McKinley Climatic Laboratory, was literally the coolest thing I ever saw. They could make temperatures between -65 degrees Fahrenheit to 165 degrees Fahrenheit with a simulation of all climatic conditions including heat, snow, rain, wind, sand and dust. They made instant popsicles on Armed Force Day.
  12. That would be Red Adair for you young 'uns. A fire requires 3 things; fuel, oxygen and an ignition source. To put out the fire, remove one of the three. Well blowouts are much less common than in times past. Most oil exploration is done via computers and data processing and not so much drilling "wildcat" wells looking for the big one. Knowing exactly where you're drilling and what you are drilling through minimizes surprises, and safeguards are in place to protect against accidents. Fuel In the event of a fire, one of the first things you do is shut off the fuel source. For a well, you close the valve, or deploy the blowout preventer, which may include massive shears the cut the pipe and block the well bore. If that doesn't work, call Red. A tank fire is relatively simple compared to a well fire. You know exactly what you are dealing with, and it isn't under a 1,000 pounds of pressure. Simple you say? Reminds me of a discussion on Simple Harmonic Motion with my physics prof (TA), in which he brought up watching a coed walking across the mall, braless. The harmonics are simple, but the motion is certainly not. And yes, I continue my research whenever the opportunity presents itself. In this case, they built the tanks close together. Probably seemed like a good idea at the time. In this case, isolate the tanks, or empty the tanks, or let them burn out. Ignition Source To put out this fire, you have to remove the debris from the fire, the red hot steel plates and piping that will reignite gas and liquids on contact. For this fire, that is damn near impossible while the fire is burning. You can't get close enough to see what to do. Oxygen Red used dynamite in the old days, they probably use something similar now, but more stable. The explosion consumes the oxygen and the fire goes out. Putting out a fire by setting off explosives next to tanks full of diesel and jet fuel? Let me think about that one. In Iraq, I know they mounted a jet engine on a skid and tried to blow out the fires. I expect they had some success, and failures. The ACME products probably worked best. Yeah, trying to do anything, with a drone looking over your shoulder? You're fucked before you start. Terminals are the delivery points, at the "dumb" ends of the pipelines. They typically don't have the pumps required to boost the pressure to move the products from the terminal to the pipelines. Kind of like pouring your water bottle into the garden hose to fill up your upstairs toilet. 1 of the 4 things you need to know to be an engineer; you can't pull water.
  13. Sorry, you already know the answer. Until they put it out, or until there is nothing left to burn? They probably tried the "easy" stuff already. Dry chemicals and foam are options, but bigger fires require matching quantities, and, well, ...it's Russia. They could empty the tanks into rail cars, but the rail facilities look to be very close to the fires. Whatever water supply they had on site is probably gone, so having to bring water to the site is problematic. I'm guessing they don't have a large enough water line already, so building one is an option, though not timely. Bring in rail cars full of water is next, but slow, and getting the water to the fire appears to be an issue. The fire will burn until the source is cut off. With multiple tanks burning, they cannot get enough water to control the fires. Over time, as the fires burn out in the core and spread, they may be able to put out the tank fires that are somewhat isolated, but the tanks are very close together, so ... At some point, the tanks themselves will fail, meaning you have a large, shallow pool burning instead of just the top of the tank. The increased surface area burning closer to the ground will heat the tanks quicker, and again, they are very close together. Black smoke is indicative of incomplete combustion, meaning there is more fuel than oxygen. The hydrocarbons burning are greater than the air feeding the fire, and have been for 8 days. The one thing you never forget about watching videos of old fires and explosions is that the films survived, but the photographers? Not always.
  14. Realistically, it would probably mirror Kurst in the last 3 weeks. But it has the equivalent or cornering an apex predator, with a Halloween mask and plastic fangs. And nukes. Yeah, sanctions are one thing. Physically taking over their oil export assets is a different ball game. That basically kills their economy. A stray missile or two, and the world economy is put in play. Even with sanctions in place, more than half of Russia's pre-war exports are finding their way into the market place. Price is negotiable. Supply is not. Believe it. Or not. That is all that matters. To the US, China, Europe, SE Asia, to the industrialized world. Like it or not, most will 'accept?' war crimes, as long as it isn't against them, and as long as their day to day life isn't impacted. But, once you've identified the end points, you know how far you can go before you get to the middle. Belgorod is well within that space. "I'm gonna be watching you."
  15. The Konro Trader was a "Roll On-Roll Off" transport ship, set up to load and unload railcars. A satellite photo from 2013 shows the Kavkaz Port. The recent photo's indicate the Konro Trader was similar to the ship on the south side of the dock, and was berthed on the north side of the dock, where it sank. The reports stated in was loaded with ~ 30 tank cars. It looks like it could carry 50 tank cars, or smaller quantities of larger rail cars. A tank car holds ~ 30,000 gal, so the missile hit and sank the ferry, along with 30-50 tank/rail cars, with ~ 1,000,000 gallons of fuel, and probably some ammunition & other supplies. I read Russia had 3 ferries, with 2 reportedly sank and the last one was damaged earlier in the year and was being repaired. Losing the roll on-off capability is huge, with the alternative being to load individual tractor trailers that take up more space and are limited to 10,000 gallon cargos. I remember early in the SMO, the tank trucks targeted were a "notable" number, and I expect the inventory is low given Russia's preference on rail service. Like the absence of NCO's, I don't believe Russia has the equivalent of independent tuckers like the US has. Yet another case of their antiquated logistic's network going to shit. Lose a refinery unit or two? No biggie. A few storage depots and terminals? Okay. A couple of rail bridges? Hum? The pawns are almost all gone. Now, they are losing bigger chess pieces. The cumulative effect of losing the bits and pieces in the fuel supply chain is starting to add up. FAFO.
  16. The rare Covid Super Senior that gets play for Texas, more rare that a Cinco Ranch kid made it to Austin. Here's to one more good year in the sun.
  17. Marinovka Airbase, June 2022 photo, (~350 miles SE of Kharkiv), all the planes clustered close together, pre Pearl Harbor strategy. Marinovka Airbase, April 2024 photo, some of the planes clustered close together,with the shiny new hangers built during the SMO. Sounds like the Fucking Fucked Fuckers are all Fucked up. You gotta love the irony of Russia having this massive military complex, protected by the thin veneer of a belief that no one would ever attack them. Over time, technology evolves, developing satellites with a 3 inch resolution, a GPS system that put the cross hairs in your ear hole, and guided munitions that can put it all together. And still, the belief that no one would ever attack them. The reality; And then, one day, you launch a Special Military Operation, with a 3 day plan that includes sending in the troops, with their parade dress uniforms packed, but with no food or water. Yeah, Custer had a plan, too.
  18. Funny. I love it! To be clear, I'm a Gas Processing guy, not an oil guy. Oil refineries take the nastiest liquid occurring in nature and make it useable. Its a dirty job that has to be done, and oily impurities and dust makes for some ugly pictures. Gas processing requires the understanding and proper application of technology to Newtonian Physics, and has a legacy of sharing best practices. When you have that understanding, you can build stuff that works, and doesn't leak. And the pretty blue flame is kinda cool. Another reason US facilities don't look like that, is that shit burns. You can throw a lighted match on diesel and the fire will probably go out. (No Darwin entries, please!) But once it starts burning, and gets hot, it starts readily vaporizing, and the fire increases in intensity. The tanks in nice little rows looks good n pictures, but there is one big reason not to put them too close together. At some point the radiant heat ignites the vents on the tanks, or, the vaporization rate exceeds the tanks relief valve capacity, and you get a BLEVE, a boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion.
  19. This project was always a very low probability, before the SMO began. Pre war costs estimated at $50+ Billion. Get the 2 worst business partners in the world on opposite sides of a contract, trying to get the other guy to put up the money.
  20. Nope. It's in their DNA.
  21. Proletarsk State Reserve Fuel Facility answers most of my questions. I expect this facility is on on the VIP tour, so the monies budgeted were actually spent. Of course, some of the tanks may be empty. Given the nature of the facility, I would guess it also stores aviation fuel. The larger tanks look to be 65-70' diameter, each holding ~1.4 million gallons or 33,000 barrels. Total facility storage ~ 2.3 million barrels, ~ 100 million gallons. Lots of inventory going up in smoke. By comparison, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stores crude oil, not refined products. The US meant to reduce the impact of crude oil imports. The number & volumes of US refining capacity is such that the daily production volumes and associated storage are suitable for the demand. In all my years, building facilities to protect against rockets & missiles & bombs never was a criteria.
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