There's another odd dynamic that exists in polling beyond what @Horn of Gabriel spelled out above. They hate to be wrong, talking heads hate to be wrong, haters love to hate, and there's always those that love jumping on whatever bandwagon happens to be rolling around.
So those that have been supporting Texas as a NC team, those hating on Texas sos, those that were voting Texas top 5, those that love a bandwagon could all take a late season loss to a not great aggie squad as the reason to leash the hate hounds. Sure, there well be a handful on contrary mofos that still support Texas, but they'll be the exception.
It happened to FSU last year post Louisville, rightfully so. Texas loses to aggie late... I think the wheels roll, guillotines come out and Texas is lead to the slaughter. We don't win both Kentucky and aggie, I can't see Texas making the playoffs. For the logic reason Gabriel spelled out and frankly haters gonna hate. Texas is a brand like a few others that have that sort of national brand. On or off the bus, but it's binary.