Well, I put it all in my long ass post but mostly I have very real concerns that the smoke (fake or real) is being fanned by people who want him gone. I suspect these people are big NIL donors frustrated with his off season blunders last year, his attitude and lack of production this year. Admittedly, this is all wild speculation but when you look at the time lines, things track to that logic.
So, based on what I do know (data from the past 2 season as well as spring and summer behaviors that are all absolutely verified facts, compounded with horrible performance this year) with the aligned smoke, now recruiting issues starting to (possible NIL doner angst), I'm leaning above 70-80% chance he's gone.
Here's the bad part for me, while fear of change doesn't prevent me from wanting a change I don't have a ton of faith in Texas finally hiring a coach that isn't a mid or project, for the 6th time in a row. I'm hoping with CDC and NIL folks figure it out, but..
All that said, my real concern with Sark returning is NIL drying up, Sark not changing at all, and things getting substantially worst next season with a much tougher schedule.
But I'll close with, I'd love to be wrong, have Sark come back, do a wholesale change from GM to OC, drop off OC duties, become an engaged HC and win an NC. I would happily eat the shit ton of crow served here and put in a good chunk of money on a mock BurntEyes pre-National Championship game HH in Las Vegas next year before the game. I just firmly believe its far less likely than Texas finding a far better replacement.