partially because it's game week, partially because i've had too much eagle rare, primarily because my 8:00 call was cancelled - it's time. as a reminder, i've done this on here or tangentially related boards the past decade or two, and i've been within one game of the correct won/loss record every year, apart from the time i watched kenny hill in columbia and overdosed on a variety of substances.
tl:dr: this is a very good roster, with a very good coaching staff, with a very favorable schedule. incredibly strong front 7, sneaky good skill position players and a mature, focused group of players. the achilles heel will be speed: both on offense (can we find someone to get safeties out of the box) and defense (we're playing two fundamentally sound, imposing strong safeties, neither with a 5th gear), which unfortunately could bite us in the ass several times in this modern version of college football.
i'm calling for 10-2 with losses to bama and ole miss. for those that want to see a quasi-sober look at the team, continue:
qb: who the fuck knows. haynes king is a gamer, won a state championship, great athlete and responds well to jimbo's abusive qb coaching. like every qb in the world, i have no idea until the bullets start flying. jimbo is a good enough schemer and king has enough tools to get us through 75% of the year in good shape but will he step up when needed? we'll see. calzada has an nfl arm, and otherwise is a weird kid. if king is legit, the ceiling for this roster gets really interesting.
rb: if spiller stays healthy, he's going to have a great year. he's worked his ass off, is in incredible shape and is a really instinctual, tough runner. he's one gear away from being a heisman-type kid, but can still be an incredibly productive college running back. achane is more than a track guy, but i worry about him getting more than 8-10 touches a game. we'll see what he can handle. lj johnson looks like a kid who took the spring off. he'll get there, but needs some time. rest of the guys are jags.
wr: weird room. chase lane looks really good, but in an ideal world he'd probably be your 2nd or 3rd guy. ainias smith will be moved around and productive, but this offense really needs an outside guy to at least occasionally threaten people. caleb chapman was starting to come on last year before the acl at florida, but not sure if he's back, and demond demas remains a guy who can't stay on the field. i think via pure frustration jimbo will force this down the field early, but no idea if sustainable against the better defenses. excited to see moose muhammad and yulkeith brown based on conversations, but i'll believe their production when i see it.
te: wydermyer is a borderline all-american. everything else is a bit of hope. baylor cupp is a freak on paper, but can't stay healthy (shoutout to his mom), max wright is the blocking guy who should be able to slip out and catch 10-15 balls, and eli stowers actually looks pretty good if he can put on another 15 pounds.
ol: who knows? fun times! the freshman have quickly risen through the ranks, making the glass half empty (oh shit, the 2-deep sucks), or half full (wow, these guys are really talented) - i think it's probably a bit of both. from left to right: ruben fatheree is a freak. i'm all in on him being a top 10 pick in 3 years. he's 6'8", 320, moves like a guy playing small forward and has responded to everything thrown to him so far. that being said, it's going to take a bit for him to get up to speed, which is why i think tennessee transfer jahmir johnson starts the year and gives way by bama. aki ogunbiyi is going to be very solid at left guard and layden robinson should be decent at right guard, as long as he doesn't have to pull very often. kenyon green will probably end up at right tackle and be fine, and the question will be if luke matthews is actually real, or if one of the true freshmen (wykoff or bryce foster) has to man the center position. both are going to be good, but how quickly is a great question. center could be a potential danger spot.
dl: a lot of talent. leal should be a top 20 pick at strongside end, mckinnely jackson, jaydon peevy, isaiah rakes and shemar turner (who is a freak) will anchor dt, and some combo of tyree johnson, michael clemons, fadil diggs and donnell harris will make weakside end at worst acceptable. as long as elijah robinson and terry price are employed, this will be a top 5-10 unit in college football. need to find guys to get to the quarterback in spite of elkos lane-heavy scheme to be elite.
lb: interesting room. aaron hansford is getting a lot of buzz, but need him to make more plays. really good athlete but still learning. andre white had a great year as the 3rd linebacker last year, but edgerrin cooper just may be too good to keep off the field. still can't believe lsu didn't up the ante here. couple of decent options behind here in antonio doyle, chris russell and tarian lee, all who would have been starting anytime over the last 2 decades of a&m football.
cb: myles jones is long, and a step slow. jaylon jones is smooth as hell, confident and a step slow. brian george has slowly put it together out of juco but probably a step slow. tyreek chappel is a freshman and not a step slow, but needs some time to figure it out. those will be the 4 corners. duece harmon is a lot of fun, but probably a nickel moving forward. we're talented, but susceptible here.
s: demani richardson is beautiful, and probably the best safety at a&m since terrance kiel (rip). he'd probably best suited for a box guy, however mike elko is obsessed with playing leon o neal next to him, who - despite all the bullshit - has turned into a pretty solid lane-filling safety, albeit one that runs a 4.65. for the life of me, i don't understand why he doesn't rotate antonio johnson, erick young or even freshman jardin gilbert here, but elko builds his defense back-end forward, and he's going to live or die with those two as the final help. we saw bama going over the top repeatedly last year and i fear ole miss doing the same, but we'll see if there are holes patched here.
st: we'll be fine.
should be a fun year. bookmark it and and yell at me when we're either in the playoff or win 6.