$$ ESPN https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/38115407/connelly-college-football-ifs-list-contenders-georgia-alabama-ohio-state-michigan-lsu
This is my annual "Ifs List" piece -- an attempt to see how many "ifs" it takes me to turn a team into a genuine national title contender. The favorites don't require many; a few others might have more than you think.
Texas Longhorns (+2,000)
If ... Quinn Ewers (or some other Texas QB) shows up on key plays. On first downs, Quinn Ewers ranked 19th in raw QBR in 2022. On third downs: 104th. In first quarters, Ewers ranked 46th. In fourth quarters: 97th.
Ewers had promising moments, but he was dreadful on the most important downs and in the most important quarter. You could say the same thing about the Horns. They outscored opponents by 179 points in the first three quarters, got outscored by 12 in the fourth quarter and overtime and went 2-5 in one-score finishes. They dominated at times and aced the predictive ratings -- seventh in both FPI and SP+ -- but still went just 8-5.
Was this a sample-size oddity? Can Ewers come through in key moments before he loses his job to either blue-chip freshman Arch Manning or spring star Maalik Murphy?
If ... Sark does, too. While close-game records are typically unsustainable and can oscillate constantly, it does bear mentioning that Steve Sarkisian has lost 11 of his last 15 one-score games as a head coach. This goes higher up than Ewers on the org chart.
If ... young running backs aren't a hindrance. Ewers' veteran receiving corps should be stellar, but the Horns will lack both Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson at running back. Can some combination of sophomores Jonathon Brooks and Jaydon Blue and blue-chip freshman Cedric Baxter Jr. provide a sufficient security blanket?
If ... opponents move backward more. Texas leaped from 86th to 22nd in defensive SP+ last season, driven by excellent run pursuit and big-play prevention. But the Horns still ran into trouble on third and fourth downs because, while they were preventing efficiency, they weren't pushing opponents backward: They ranked 106th in sack rate and 102nd in stuff rate. Forcing second-and-8 is good; forcing second-and-12 is better.