Storm the Field

Friday morning pre gym weigh-in at 194. Down 7 lbs since 1/2. I know losing those first 5 lbs or so is the easy part and it becomes more of a grind from here, but feeling good about getting down to 190 by end of January. Scheduled cheat day tomorrow, which I'm both looking forward to (having fun with friends/coworkers and eating really good food) and dreading (being hungover on Sunday). Once Dry January ends, I think I'm gonna try and keep the lifestyle changes half-ass going through the end of February. No booze or unhealthy food absent a valid reason Monday-Friday. Free reign to enjoy but not overdo it from Saturday afternoon through dinnertime on Sunday.

Jumped the gun a bit there.

The accountant in the Texas Monthly story I posted was making $50K/year when he started skimming from the company back in 2005 or so. Before long, he was known to have one of the more impressive luxury watch collections in the greater Dallas area. On one shopping trip, he spent more than his entire annual salary in a single transaction, buying 5 different Rolexes. That same year, his wife spent almost half a million, ten times his legit earnings, just on private flights to their 2nd home in Santa Fe and to Aspen and Napa.

The reason why banks and other companies sometimes have mandatory vacation policies for the financial/accounting people. FDIC currently recommends that all banking employees be required to either take vacation or be rotated out of their usual job rresponsibilities for at least 14 consecutive days. If a person in charge of handling money/paying invoices at a business never takes time off and never wants anyone else to handle any facet of their job, that's a flashing embezzlement warning light that at least merits increased scrutiny.

You typically don't get to keep the money you're caught embezzling.

I don't think most people start out intending to steal $100M. A lot of times it's just some middle-class regular joe that hits some financial trouble or wants to buy something they can't afford and they decide to try it once, swearing it'll only be this time, and they get away with it. Later they start thinking about how easy it was, and they do it a second time. And then a third, and so on. Eventually it just becomes part and parcel of their daily routine. Clock in, pay some fake invoices, move some money around bank accounts, and then start shopping for luxury goods. They get addicted to being able to buy whatever they want, and even more importantly, looking rich AF. Texas Monthly did an in-depth story a few years on a guy's years-long embezzlement scheme at the Collin Street Bakery in Corsicana that really delves into the why and the how. Definitely worth a read. https://www.texasmonthly.com/true-crime/just-desserts/ Also, back to my earlier point, the dude didn't get caught for so long because he was basically the entire accounting department and had no oversight. He got found out almost immediately after they brought in an assistant.

Seems like the vast majority of fraud/embezzlement schemes that eventually come out are due to the defrauded entity having zero financial controls. It's either a small company where the accounting department is literally a single person with full access to all accounts and unilateral ability to approve invoices, or a big school or govt institution like this where nobody really notices or bothers to check into why some department is paying millions of dollars a year in invoices to some vague entity. There was a case just a year or two ago where the finance director for Yale Medical School was found to have embezzled $40M over the course of 7 years. How did she do it? She had blanket authority to approve any purchase below $10k. She would order hundreds of laptops and tablets every month, always keeping each individual purchase order under $10K, and then hand them straight to a grey-market reseller and pocket the cash. Nobody every looked into why the department needed several thousand new computers and tablets every year.

Apologies for the necro bump, but I've seen this statistic pop up in recent days, and I remember it being referenced in this thread. The number seems shockingly high b/c it's not realistic, given "paycheck to paycheck", in this context, is thrown around very gratuitously. When you see something that says nearly 2/3 of people making over $100K live "paycheck to paycheck" your bullshit meter should go off. Also, your bullshit meter should go off when the solitary source that gets quoted for this statistic is a "report" put out by a personal loan company. "Paycheck to paycheck" means if you miss a paycheck, you're in deep shit. You can't make rent, your car gets repo'd, you have to take out a usurious loan or borrow from family...etc. It doesn't mean "I would have to dig into my savings/carry a credit card balance for a bit" or "I make a lot of money, but I spend like a drunken sailor and don't save or invest."

And here's the chart for 2022, when revisions were positive 9/12 months, including AN UNBELIEVABLE 7 in a row to end the year. Total revisions to the upside of +311K. If anything, it looks like BLS overcorrected in 2023 after consistently undershooting for the majority of 2022. That's the whole purpose of the revisions, to attempt to give a more accurate estimate after additional time and data. I won't even charge a fraction of whatever you pay Schwab for this easily obtainable, free data.

One of the all-time great jokes from 30 Rock. I spit out my drink the first time I saw this bit, and no network TV, no less.

Nat gas since 12/29: Up 28% over the last 6 trading days ($2.51 -> $3.22).

Dude, look at the chart. It has only rarely ever breached 100. You're assuming that it has been in contraction for 39.9 of the last 40 years?

This isn't a shot or anything, because you obviously do get it, but your reference to median vs mean here is timely given that I've been watching in fascination the last day or so as a mainstream liberal econ guy has been attempting to explain the difference between median and mean to far-left Bernie bros on Twitter. A seemingly Sisyphean task if you dig through his feed the last few days. Although, once in a while, he manages to break through.

Wanted to circle back to this discussion Wulaw and I had 2 months ago on a related topic. Data out this morning showed Small Business Optimism Index for December hit its highest level of 2023. A deeper dive into the hard vs. soft data just further illustrates the stark divide between how Americans (in this case small business owners) rate their personal situation vs. how they view the national environment. The "hard" data is at a fairly strong level based on 40 years of data. Small business owners plan to add employees, add inventory, spend money expanding their businesses, and increase their earnings. The "soft" data (vibes) are at Great Recession levels, worse now than at the depths of COVID, though finally bouncing off the bottom. Additionally, and apologies if this is too CR, but I believe there's a glaringly obvious political bias to these numbers. Look at the massive uptick in the soft data reading basically on Inauguration Day 2017. I don't see a way of reading this other than that GOP-leaning small business owners report much more positive vibes about the economy with a Republican in office and assume things must eventually go to shit under a Democrat.

First week in the books. Hope everybody's first weekend of Dry January passed without too much difficulty. Nice to wake up this morning without a mild hangover, bloated and puffy. On the other hand, doing so required foregoing my beloved Sunday night routine of having several good beers while cooking a decadent supper. Oh well, gotta crack some eggs to make an omelet. Went to the gym every day TUE-SAT and then got in both a long dog walk yesterday morning and an hour-long bike ride in the afternoon. Planning to kick ass in the gym this week and start working in some additional core exercises. Scheduled cheat day coming up Saturday. Gonna meet some buddies for a beer or two during Texans playoff game and then have my firm's belated Holiday Dinner that evening. Recovery day Sunday and then it's back to clean living the rest of the month.

No shit. Telekinesis, superhuman agility, and the ability to perform mind tricks on people. Sign me up!

One thing I saw pointed out on this topic this morning: Too many old ass buildings still lingering around.

Steady light rain in Houston all morning, and supposed to hit mid 70's at some point, but things about to change quick. Heavy storms and strong winds gonna start popping off around 4:00 and should drop temps a good 25 degrees overnight. Been a very mild Winter so far. Took the dogs out for a walk in some nice Spring-like weather yesterday morning and wife and I noticed how vibrantly green everything still is and how full the trees all are. I imagine that will change pretty soon with the expected arrival of that strong cold front on Sunday. Current forecast doesn't have us getting us much of a hard freeze as most of the rest of the state, but still looks like we'll spend at least a few hours in the high 20's early next Monday morning.

Big rumor popped up late Friday that SWN and CHK are nearing the finish line of a big merger.

Where are you seeing that? Oil dropping sharply today because KSA slashed prices on crude for February delivery, but I haven't seen anything regarding production cuts.

Never fails. Even after it doing it for half a decade now, the first weekend is always an adjustment. Unless you routinely drink every single day, taking off those first few weeknights of January is usually not too much of a challenge. After a couple sober sleeps, usually paired with better diet and some exercise, you're feeling pretty good and start thinking "I should do this more often." It's usually the first Friday evening that the craving monster rears its ugly head. Worked kind late yesterday and was driving home at peak happy hour time on a nice evening. Drove past multiple patio bars full of people enjoying themselves, and I'll be damned if I didn't feel a bit jealous of those folks. Dry January sometimes reminds me of being a kid again and being grounded and sitting at home while your friends are out having fun. Except you're an adult and you've grounded yourself.

That family has some good videos. Seen a few that went viral on Reddit before. Just good clean Dad humor.

Related: If you get a weekend with your spouse out of town and the house to yourself, don't tell any of your buddies unless you want to go out and do something. Enjoy your ~48 hours however you choose, sans peer pressure. No shame in being a hermit all weekend and drinking at home and playing video games or bingeing some show your wife would hate.

Wulaw wants his recession and wants it now, damnit!