Storm the Field

Q3 GDP and Inflation numbers released:

Come borrow some of ours. They've cleared out some nice 25 yard circles around our feeders. Nothing but rutted up sand. Funny enough, me and some of the other guys on my lease just spent part of the morning talking about putting up hog panel fencing at our 2 newest stands. Hogs have really taken over those feeders this year. Deer rarely ever get a chance to come eat in peace. We estimate it'll be about $300 per feeder to put up 6 16-feet panels and a t-post every 4 feet. That sound about right?

Ghost announces a huge international tour this Spring and Summer. https://metalinjection.net/tour-dates/ghost-announces-world-tour-seems-to-be-teasing-new-material Final stops are in Austin 8/14 (Moody Center), Fort Worth 8/15 (Dickies Arena), and Houston 8/16 (Toyota Center). I'm definitely planning on going to the Houston show. Been wanting to see them live for a long time.

It's snowing hard in Aspen/Snowmass and Crested Butte this morning. Looks like Denver should get it's first dusting tomorrow and seems likely y'all are done with temps above 60 for the foreseeable future.

How many acres? No experience with KS, but it looks like Colby is on the outskirts of one the more active oil plays in the state. 2 decades in this business I have never once heard of a modern day lease bonus figure that low. Like $20/acre is something I'd expect to see in a lease taken 40+ years ago. 3 year term is pretty standard. 1/8 is basically the bare minimum default royalty in the absence of negotiation.

Right on cue:

Forecast of 82/65 and 40% chance of rain on Saturday and Sunday at my lease. That's following 2 days of heavy rain on Thursday and Friday. Looks like it will be damn near perfect in time for Weekend 2, but unfortunately I'm gonna be out of state for a football road trip. If I decided to sit out this weekend, I wouldn't be able to make it out until 11/15, so a warm, wet Opening Weekend slopping around in the mud it is.

Nice tall horns there. What county?

All I've been picking up on the camera I set up a month ago is pigs late at night/super early in the morning, usually between 10 pm and 2 am. I genuinely think the excessively warm and dry weather the past ~6-8 weeks at our place has altered feeding behavior. We were seeing a lot more action around morning and evening feed times earlier in the Summer. Very rarely lately have we been picking up anything, deer or pigs, during daylight hours. It's been a good 30 degrees cooler late at night than during the day where we are. There's a group of doe that have been stopping by 1 specific stand almost every evening the past 3 weeks, but usually not until a good 30 minutes after sundown, close to 2.5 hours after the feeder goes off. They hung around grazing from about 7:30 to 7:45 last night. Nice buck showed up about 30 minutes later. Frustrating. One of the guys was out there this weekend and went ahead and set clocks back an hour and adjusted feed times to pre-emptively account for the DST changeover next weekend. We'll see if/how the animals adjust this week.

Dude, we're still routinely hitting 90 and the lows the next few days don't get below 70, even with clouds and rain chances. Nighttime and Morning temps in the 40's and 50's warming up to 80 in the afternoon is not the same thing at all. We're 5 weeks into "Autumn" and have spent less than 24 hours below 60 degrees thus far.

Meanwhile, in the rest of the country, it's actually been legit Autumn for several weeks, and is about to be Winter up in the mountains. Lot of ski towns will be getting their first big snowfalls of the season this week.

Official rainfall projection for next 5 days. Higher odds for Eastern portions of the state, but we'll see. Good news for those of you taking kids out trick-or-treating is that it looks much more likely to rain Thursday morning than Thursday evening. Fingers crossed.

From SCW today:

One more record-tying hot day without a cloud in the sky today then looks like we're in for a bit of a shift next week with clouds returning and atmosphere getting a little more disturbed. Still gonna be abnormally warm through the first week of November, but finally have our first real chances in ages starting Wednesday. Next cool front still at least 10 days out.

Yes, it's perfectly acceptable to bitch about. It sucks out there, and it's just not supposed to feel like this in late October. It's like we traveled back in time by 6 weeks.

Total crapshoot right now as to whether we get any rain on Halloween and how much through next weekend. Some sites/local news stations have it 30% or less while others are anywhere from 50-80% Thursday through Sunday. Current 7 day precipitation forecast:

Not loving the forecast for Opening Weekend. Currently 80% chance of storms on Thursday, 65% on Friday, 50% on Saturday out at my lease. I mean, we definitely need some rain after 6+ weeks of drought, but really, that's the weekend that the dam finally bursts?!?!

Actually since the figure of $80,610 is for 2023, if you change the top date to December 2023, you actually get $67,792.38 worth of January 2020 money, a $250 bump. Thanks Chicken!

Median Household Income as estimated by BLS ≠ Median Salary estimated by Fidelity Rhetorical question.

Why are you mixing sources? Census Estimate for 2020: $67,521 Census Estimate for 2023: $80,610 Got the Fidelity numbers for 2020?

Felt like early September when I went out for lunch earlier. Going to either tie or come up just a degree short of setting a new record high today. 90/70 when the average for October 25th is 80/58. Looks pretty assured that this will end up as the 2nd or 3rd warmest and all-time driest October of the past 125 years. Next cool front doesn't look like it'll arrive until ~11/6, and all that will do is bring us closer to average temps for first week of November (75/55).

Who's ready for a Late October weekend of 90 degrees?

30% chance of rain next Wednesday and 50% next Thursday for Houston area. If those don't pan out, we'll have made it the entire month of October without a single drop of measurable precipitation. Daily highs and lows for the month are going to end up averaging 8+ degrees higher than normal.